2021 End of Year Bonuses Forum

[Anonymous User]

I’m a senior associate at a V10 that will not set the market but will match and beat for high performers. I had a meeting on Friday for a matter with one of our more prominent partners and he mentioned going to a partners meeting after our meeting in which they were going to discuss setting reserves for attorney bonus. The short of it is that our firm is expecting meaningfully larger bonuses at the top of the market.

Again our firm will not lead so this is no guarantee, but its at least hopeful that our leadership is operating under the assumption of increased bonuses

[Anonymous User]

We should all ask our hiring partners why our firms don’t announce bonuses first to increase visibility for recruiting. Everyone is bleeding associates, so it’s a zero cost move with a lot of potential benefit. If the firm will match anyway, then why not be the first to announce? Doesn’t seem like there is much competition this year.

Not to be a party pooper, but I don’t see the logic here at all for how it would lead to retention/benefit. Everyone knows bonuses are coming already. Announcing just gives another firm a target to say they will match in a lateral offer.

It’s free advertising on Above The Law. No cost to the firm if they’re going to match anyway. Especially for a lower tier V50, I’d think it’s a no-brainer. But then again I’m not on the compensation committee, so maybe the firm thinks it would be bad PR for clients. Thoughts?

[Anonymous User]

We're not market leaders or anything but Polsinelli announced theirs today. It's black box.

Class of 2019. $30k.

I'm at Polsinelli too. How many hours did you bill for that?

[Anonymous User]

We're not market leaders or anything but Polsinelli announced theirs today. It's black box.

Class of 2019. $30k.

I'm at Polsinelli too. How many hours did you bill for that?

Over 2200 but less than 2500.

[almostperfectt]

We should all ask our hiring partners why our firms don’t announce bonuses first to increase visibility for recruiting. Everyone is bleeding associates, so it’s a zero cost move with a lot of potential benefit. If the firm will match anyway, then why not be the first to announce? Doesn’t seem like there is much competition this year.

They're probably not doing that because it makes them look 'weak' (or whatever adjective) to change their bonus numbers to keep up with market (even though we know that's exactly what most firms are waiting for).

Especially if they have to increase multiple times to keep up.

[legalpotato]

We're not market leaders or anything but Polsinelli announced theirs today. It's black box.

Class of 2019. $30k.

I have no idea what a Polsinelli is, but somehow it is putting all of the v100s to shame

[Anonymous User]

What are the odds someone announces tomorrow?

[Anonymous User]

What are the odds someone announces tomorrow?

I'd say 50/50 between tomorrow vs. next Monday. Really mentally banking on tomorrow, though.

[Anonymous User]

What are the odds someone announces tomorrow?

Low.

[lawstudent212]

My prediction, today is the day. Milbank is going to come in hot and give a 75% bump to last year's scale. Then another firm, maybe DPW will up the ante and #DOUBLETHESCALE!

[Anonymous User]

What are the odds someone announces tomorrow?

Low.

Per upthread analysis, since 2010:

• Bonuses were announced the Monday before TG in 2010 and 2018.

• Bonuses were announced the first Monday after in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2016, and 2017.

• Bonuses were announced the second Monday after in 2015.

There is a chance, but next Monday is more likely if historical trends hold.

ETA: ATL's posts in 2010 and 2018 were between 2 and 3 pm.

[Bosque]

Only by ridding yourself of your desires can you achieve what you desire most.

[Anonymous User]

What are the odds someone announces tomorrow?

Low.

Per upthread analysis, since 2010:

• Bonuses were announced the Monday before TG in 2010 and 2018.

• Bonuses were announced the first Monday after in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2016, and 2017.

• Bonuses were announced the second Monday after in 2015.

There is a chance, but next Monday is more likely if historical trends hold.

ETA: ATL's posts in 2010 and 2018 were between 2 and 3 pm.

And what do all of those Monday's have in common? They are the 4th Monday of the month of November. Sometimes this occurs before Thanksgiving and sometimes after. But it is historically when Cravath meets to decide on bonuses. Today is the fourth Monday of the month. Happy Monday all.

[Anonymous User]

Today is the fourth Monday of November. This is historically the day Cravath sets the scale. Sometimes the fourth Monday is before Thanksgiving and sometimes after. Seems like a good shot today if it is going to be the traditional timeline for a Cravath move. Otherwise, it really becomes anyone's guess.

[Anonymous User]

We're not market leaders or anything but Polsinelli announced theirs today. It's black box.

Class of 2019. $30k.

I have no idea what a Polsinelli is, but somehow it is putting all of the v100s to shame

This is about market (prior to this year) for any firm that pays extra for high billers. It's 1.2x for somewhere in the 2200-2500 range billed.

[Anonymous User]

What are the odds someone announces tomorrow?

Low.

Per upthread analysis, since 2010:

• Bonuses were announced the Monday before TG in 2010 and 2018.

• Bonuses were announced the first Monday after in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2016, and 2017.

• Bonuses were announced the second Monday after in 2015.

There is a chance, but next Monday is more likely if historical trends hold.

ETA: ATL's posts in 2010 and 2018 were between 2 and 3 pm.

History doesn’t tell us much here. Monday after Thanksgiving wasn’t some random day that a random firm chose to announce bonuses. Instead, it was just the day that Cravath announced bonuses. If history tells us anything, it’s that DPW, Simpson, Milbank, etc. don’t look to Cravath for leadership anymore and are perfectly happy stepping forth with their own compensation scales.

If it turns out being next Monday, more than likely it’s Cravath stepping into the ring with a bonus announcement. Betting on next Monday is more of a bet on Cravath than anything else.

[Anonymous User]

What are the odds someone announces tomorrow?

I'd say 50/50 between tomorrow vs. next Monday. Really mentally banking on tomorrow, though.

Agreed. It either happens today or it's happening on the 29th. Wacky ass prediction: It happens today. Reasoning: Firms know there's going to be movement off what the first scale is and they want some amount of time to be able to react and respond. We're no longer in "early mover" territory it's prime bonus season and they want to get it out there to give some breathing room (and also to give everyone a Happy Thanksgiving). Let's go.

[Anonymous User]

What are the odds someone announces tomorrow?

I'd say 50/50 between tomorrow vs. next Monday. Really mentally banking on tomorrow, though.

Agreed. It either happens today or it's happening on the 29th. Wacky ass prediction: It happens today. Reasoning: Firms know there's going to be movement off what the first scale is and they want some amount of time to be able to react and respond. We're no longer in "early mover" territory it's prime bonus season and they want to get it out there to give some breathing room (and also to give everyone a Happy Thanksgiving). Let's go.

I hope it's today but I'm not sure I agree with you 100% on your game theory there. Why would the first mover want to give others time?

[Anonymous User]

What are the odds someone announces tomorrow?

I'd say 50/50 between tomorrow vs. next Monday. Really mentally banking on tomorrow, though.

Agreed. It either happens today or it's happening on the 29th. Wacky ass prediction: It happens today. Reasoning: Firms know there's going to be movement off what the first scale is and they want some amount of time to be able to react and respond. We're no longer in "early mover" territory it's prime bonus season and they want to get it out there to give some breathing room (and also to give everyone a Happy Thanksgiving). Let's go.

I hope it's today but I'm not sure I agree with you 100% on your game theory there. Why would the first mover want to give others time?

I think it's less about giving others time and more about preempting the exit plans that so many associates are making/starting to think about making.

(Edited to actually respond to the quoted anon.)

[Anonymous User]

Skadden just emailed everyone...giving all associates an iPad pro, apple pencil, and keyboard.

Pretty cool but cruel when bonuses haven't been announced!

[Anonymous User]

Skadden shatters the jacket/windbreaker market with the iPad Pro announcement.

[TigerIsBack]

Skadden just emailed everyone...giving all associates an iPad pro, apple pencil, and keyboard.

Pretty cool but cruel when bonuses haven't been announced!

This is just a way for Skadden to increase its profits and offset the partnership's cost of the #doublethescale EOY bonuses for associates by giving associates more ability to respond to emails over the holidays, even while traveling in the car without easy access to a laptop (especially if they're paying for the cellular service models and monthly service plans).

[mtf612]

At this point in the afternoon, it seems like a pretty safe bet that we are waiting until next week for movement

[Anonymous User]

We are going to an old-school, "Cravath announces the Monday after Thanksgiving" season, aren't we. What are all the firms waiting for? Do they just want Cravath to announce to set a floor and then some succession of DPW, Milbank, and STB will come in and beat to get market cred? It's November 22 and we haven't heard a single word from anyone in the V25 about bonuses lmfao

[Anonymous User]

CRAVATH ANNOUNCED!!!

2021 = $15k (pro rated)
2020 = $20k
2019 = $30k
2018 = $57.5k
2017 = $75k
2016 = $90k
2015 = $105k
2014 = $115k