Incoming SA at a V10. Should I be worried? Forum

[Anonymous User]

I know others have touched on this, but I wanted to address the (possible) trickle effects of this economic downturn. The mass-layoffs from the '08 recession didn't come, for the most part, until a year or 2 after the fact.

1. Does anyone see this happening here too? Should incoming SA's be worried about possible layoffs in 2 years?

2. Are corporate heavy V10's less likely to lay off associates than V50 corporate heavy firms? Should I have any more of a sense of security going to a V10?

[Anonymous User]

I know others have touched on this, but I wanted to address the (possible) trickle effects of this economic downturn. The mass-layoffs from the '08 recession didn't come, for the most part, until a year or 2 after the fact.

1. Does anyone see this happening here too? Should incoming SA's be worried about possible layoffs in 2 years?

2. Are corporate heavy V10's less likely to lay off associates than V50 corporate heavy firms? Should I have any more of a sense of security going to a V10?

I wouldn't spend your time being worried -- that won't help anything.

The future needs of all of these firms currently is less certain than it was 3 months ago, and it is unlikely that their needs will be greater than they previously anticipated. If activity levels do decrease, firms will make adjustments in their staffing levels -- some will do so quickly (including some in the V10); others will be more cautious and try to minimize the impact on associates and their reputations. Some firms have more counter-cyclical practices than others, which may allow them to move associates between practice groups before reducing staffing.

In any case, firms will continue to have the need for good, strong junior associates -- so your focus when you arrive will be to demonstrate that you are one of those who your firm should keep.

[dabigchina]

The standard advice that applies to summer associates apply now - probably moreso than before. Be nice. Look happy to be there. Do a good job. Don't get too drunk at firm events (if there are any). That's all you (or any of us, really) can do about this.

The risk of getting no-offered is higher now than it was last year. I don't think anyone would say otherwise. Just do your best and hope for the best.

[nealric]

The mass-layoffs from the '08 recession didn't come, for the most part, until a year or 2 after the fact.

This isn't really true. The financial crisis didn't really ramp up until early fall of 2008. Mass layoffs started around 4 months later. By summer of '09, the mass layoffs were mostly over, though fairly widespread stealth layoffs continued for a while after. By two years after (fall 2010), firms were back in recovery mode and deferred associates were starting or at least had been given start dates. I was offered a summer associate position in fall '08 (right around the time Lehman brothers collapsed and kicked things off). I still had a summer, but I did start 4 months late (no stub year).

As for whether you'd be worried: there's a high risk of modifications to the summer program (either shortened or remote). The risk of a no-offer is higher, but most of the V10 still made offers to most of their summers. Nothing you can do about it at this point other than perform as well as possible during your summer. It's not going to be a relaxed party summer associate experience. There likely won't be a lot of social events as I think mass gatherings will still be frowned upon even if offices have reopened.

[aliciacflorrick]

Given movement from the mid to lower V100 guaranteeing return offers to its SAs already despite their programs being cancelled or remote (Cahill, Baker Botts), wouldn’t that be a good thing for the SAs at a V10?

They’re already (generally) in a better financial position than lower ranked firms even when accounting for larger class sizes. I can’t imagine a V10 would want to look that bad when others are being so kind to their SAs.

[lawdude31]

Given movement from the mid to lower V100 guaranteeing return offers to its SAs already despite their programs being cancelled or remote (Cahill, Baker Botts), wouldn’t that be a good thing for the SAs at a V10?

They’re already (generally) in a better financial position than lower ranked firms even when accounting for larger class sizes. I can’t imagine a V10 would want to look that bad when others are being so kind to their SAs.

Have Cahill and BB done this?

[Dunnkirk85]

Given movement from the mid to lower V100 guaranteeing return offers to its SAs already despite their programs being cancelled or remote (Cahill, Baker Botts), wouldn’t that be a good thing for the SAs at a V10?

They’re already (generally) in a better financial position than lower ranked firms even when accounting for larger class sizes. I can’t imagine a V10 would want to look that bad when others are being so kind to their SAs.

Ya it's still a business though. Depending on how bad this gets - some firms might not want to hire 200+ new associates after 4 months of a large drop in revenue. Remember the SA hiring was done during a booming economy. I would personally be a bit more worried with a huge class size right now. I think it's easier for a Cahill to commit to hiring 50 than a V10 commit to hiring 200+ across the country.

[Anonymous User]

Remember the SA hiring was done during a booming economy. I would personally be a bit more worried with a huge class size right now. I think it's easier for a Cahill to commit to hiring 50 than a V10 commit to hiring 200+ across the country.

A lot of firms hired smaller classes this year, was my understanding--the firm I'm going to hired a smaller class, and a friend of mine at another top said that they were hiring a much smaller class as well. It's not at all clear to me that firms hired with a "booming economy" in mind.

[Dunnkirk85]

Remember the SA hiring was done during a booming economy. I would personally be a bit more worried with a huge class size right now. I think it's easier for a Cahill to commit to hiring 50 than a V10 commit to hiring 200+ across the country.

A lot of firms hired smaller classes this year, was my understanding--the firm I'm going to hired a smaller class, and a friend of mine at another top said that they were hiring a much smaller class as well. It's not at all clear to me that firms hired with a "booming economy" in mind.

Even taking your point, no firm predicted having a substantial drop in revenue for at least 4 months in 2020 when hiring 200+ summers last year. So, I would be a bit more concerned about auto-offers this year, especially if the entire thing is virtual. If the offer rate is typically 98% and goes down to 90-92% this year for example, that is a more significant statistic at a large class size firm.

[aliciacflorrick]

Given movement from the mid to lower V100 guaranteeing return offers to its SAs already despite their programs being cancelled or remote (Cahill, Baker Botts), wouldn’t that be a good thing for the SAs at a V10?

They’re already (generally) in a better financial position than lower ranked firms even when accounting for larger class sizes. I can’t imagine a V10 would want to look that bad when others are being so kind to their SAs.

Have Cahill and BB done this?

Yes, officially.

Some bigger firms certainly resized incoming classes in anticipation of a recession. I know of several that reduced by 20-30 students.

Sure, they might not have expected this situation specifically, but I’m confused why people think they wouldn’t just reduce 2021+ SA programs and right-size that way instead of no-offering people they already have put in the pipeline for summer 2020. It would prevent bad PR even if they deferred some fall 2021 associates to the next few months or a year later.

Didn’t mean to anon this - aliciacflorrick

[Dunnkirk85]

Given movement from the mid to lower V100 guaranteeing return offers to its SAs already despite their programs being cancelled or remote (Cahill, Baker Botts), wouldn’t that be a good thing for the SAs at a V10?

They’re already (generally) in a better financial position than lower ranked firms even when accounting for larger class sizes. I can’t imagine a V10 would want to look that bad when others are being so kind to their SAs.

Have Cahill and BB done this?

Yes, officially.

Some bigger firms certainly resized incoming classes in anticipation of a recession. I know of several that reduced by 20-30 students.

Sure, they might not have expected this situation specifically, but I’m confused why people think they wouldn’t just reduce 2021+ SA programs and right-size that way instead of no-offering people they already have put in the pipeline for summer 2020. It would prevent bad PR even if they deferred some fall 2021 associates to the next few months or a year later.

Didn’t mean to anon this - aliciacflorrick

$ and PR related to not firing any current associates > PR related to summer class

Not saying it will happen and it really depends on how bad firms are hurting in late July/August, but if that is the choice, I think it weighs in one direction more than the other.

[addie1412]

Given movement from the mid to lower V100 guaranteeing return offers to its SAs already despite their programs being cancelled or remote (Cahill, Baker Botts), wouldn’t that be a good thing for the SAs at a V10?

They’re already (generally) in a better financial position than lower ranked firms even when accounting for larger class sizes. I can’t imagine a V10 would want to look that bad when others are being so kind to their SAs.

Have Cahill and BB done this?

Yes, officially.

Some bigger firms certainly resized incoming classes in anticipation of a recession. I know of several that reduced by 20-30 students.

Sure, they might not have expected this situation specifically, but I’m confused why people think they wouldn’t just reduce 2021+ SA programs and right-size that way instead of no-offering people they already have put in the pipeline for summer 2020. It would prevent bad PR even if they deferred some fall 2021 associates to the next few months or a year later.

Didn’t mean to anon this - aliciacflorrick

$ and PR related to not firing any current associates > PR related to summer class

Not saying it will happen and it really depends on how bad firms are hurting in late July/August, but if that is the choice, I think it weighs in one direction more than the other.

Yeah but firing current associates frees up more money in the short-term than no-offering summers would. They could cut summer programs entirely, not pay their summers and still give them offers for 2021.

[Anonymous User]

Wait Cahill and Baker Botts told all their summers they are guaranteed a return offer?

[bella26]

Wait Cahill and Baker Botts told all their summers they are guaranteed a return offer?

Yes. https://abovethelaw.com/2020/04/every-s ... one-chart/

[lawdude31]

Wait Cahill and Baker Botts told all their summers they are guaranteed a return offer?

Yes. https://abovethelaw.com/2020/04/every-s ... one-chart/

.

[Anonymous User]

click the "rest of the list is here" highlighted text in the article

[LBJ's Hair]

Look, this is not a great time to be a summer. If you're not stressed, you're stupid.

But there's nothing summeres can do other than (a) do good work, (b) be enthusiastic, (c) aspire to be "unmemorable". (c) Is basically a list of "don'ts." Don't: get really drunk at social events, have sex with co-workers/superiors/staff members, make racist/sexist/homophobic/whatever jokes, etc.

[aliciacflorrick]

Students should be stressed but expecting them to perpetually worry about it when they cannot do anything is unhealthy. Sharing relatively good news and looking at what peer firms are doing is appropriate. It's all that can be done besides doing good work if the programs even happen.

Since earlier this week, Arnold & Porter, Orrick, and Ballard Spahr announced they're maintaining 100% offer-rates for their SAs, per that chart mentioned on ABL. That's refreshing.

[aliciacflorrick]

V10 made movement, OP. DPW guaranteeing offers to SAs and pay.