Layoff Predictions Forum

[LSATWiz.com]

Not in big law but the stock market has gained back approximately 70% of its March losses over the past three and a half weeks. That may impact be a factor in why layoffs and salary reductions have stagnated.

Oil is basically worthless, there's warning signs that food supply chains are going to face significant disruption in the coming weeks, April 30th is coming up and nobody has an answer for what's going to happen when rent is due and nobody can pay. And yet the market is going up up up! Oil stocks(!) are actually up in the past week or so. The market doesn't reflect reality--especially when the fed is printing unlimited sums of cash to help prop it up.

Well, a lot of companies that shouldn’t have fallen by more than fifty percent like restaurants and commercial real estate did. If Denny’s was worth 20/share in February and didn’t cause the coronavirus, it wasn’t worth only 7/share in March. The market eventually corrects those inefficiencies, but yeah, some of the gains are artificial and will crash but some industries are still undervalued. I think some of the gains are steady enough to give a bit of pause in what the next steps are.

[$$$$$$]

Not in big law but the stock market has gained back approximately 70% of its March losses over the past three and a half weeks. That may impact be a factor in why layoffs and salary reductions have stagnated.

Oil is basically worthless, there's warning signs that food supply chains are going to face significant disruption in the coming weeks, April 30th is coming up and nobody has an answer for what's going to happen when rent is due and nobody can pay. And yet the market is going up up up! Oil stocks(!) are actually up in the past week or so. The market doesn't reflect reality--especially when the fed is printing unlimited sums of cash to help prop it up.

Well, a lot of companies that shouldn’t have fallen by more than fifty percent like restaurants and commercial real estate did. If Denny’s was worth 20/share in February and didn’t cause the coronavirus, it wasn’t worth only 7/share in March. The market eventually corrects those inefficiencies, but yeah, some of the gains are artificial and will crash but some industries are still undervalued. I think some of the gains are steady enough to give a bit of pause in what the next steps are.

I'm sorry, but this is just misinformed nonsense. The stock market does not drive business decisions of law firms. Stick to law, you really don't understand the markets.

[Monochromatic Oeuvre]

Well, a lot of companies that shouldn’t have fallen by more than fifty percent like restaurants and commercial real estate did. If Denny’s was worth 20/share in February and didn’t cause the coronavirus, it wasn’t worth only 7/share in March. The market eventually corrects those inefficiencies, but yeah, some of the gains are artificial and will crash but some industries are still undervalued. I think some of the gains are steady enough to give a bit of pause in what the next steps are.

I'm sorry, but this is just misinformed nonsense. The stock market does not drive business decisions of law firms. Stick to law, you really don't understand the markets.

The stock market absolutely drives business decisions of law firms to a certain degree, and it would be exceedingly naive of any firm with clients remotely connected to credit to ignore it in anticipating future staffing needs.

[LSATWiz.com]

Not in big law but the stock market has gained back approximately 70% of its March losses over the past three and a half weeks. That may impact be a factor in why layoffs and salary reductions have stagnated.

Oil is basically worthless, there's warning signs that food supply chains are going to face significant disruption in the coming weeks, April 30th is coming up and nobody has an answer for what's going to happen when rent is due and nobody can pay. And yet the market is going up up up! Oil stocks(!) are actually up in the past week or so. The market doesn't reflect reality--especially when the fed is printing unlimited sums of cash to help prop it up.

Well, a lot of companies that shouldn’t have fallen by more than fifty percent like restaurants and commercial real estate did. If Denny’s was worth 20/share in February and didn’t cause the coronavirus, it wasn’t worth only 7/share in March. The market eventually corrects those inefficiencies, but yeah, some of the gains are artificial and will crash but some industries are still undervalued. I think some of the gains are steady enough to give a bit of pause in what the next steps are.

I'm sorry, but this is just misinformed nonsense. The stock market does not drive business decisions of law firms. Stick to law, you really don't understand the markets.

It's largely based on projected earnings, and in industries like food and clothing are largely driven by immediate prospects. It's not like self-driving technology where the price is primarily driven by circumstances ten-years out. Nobody is reinventing the hamburger. I suppose Beyond Burger kind of did but that's not the norm. I think projected earnings absolutely factor into how much a company allocates to hiring outside help and the markets have been primarily driven by our confidence about our ability to navigate COVID-19.

You're right in that I don't know much about large firm hiring and I'm no finance guru, but at the risk of being gross, I was able to get a 30% ROI since March 1 by studying COVID-19 and its affects on Wuhuan to time when different businesses will likely be allowed to reopen. Unless I got consistently lucky over hundreds of transactions, which is possible on some but not all then 12-month forecasts are driving share prices and short of a second outbreak, the long term impact is not quite as bleak as it looked a month ago. By the way, infrared tech seems to be the next shoe that will fall now that testing companies have peaked if the Wuhuan model holds

[Throwaway5818]

Not in big law but the stock market has gained back approximately 70% of its March losses over the past three and a half weeks. That may impact be a factor in why layoffs and salary reductions have stagnated.

Oil is basically worthless, there's warning signs that food supply chains are going to face significant disruption in the coming weeks, April 30th is coming up and nobody has an answer for what's going to happen when rent is due and nobody can pay. And yet the market is going up up up! Oil stocks(!) are actually up in the past week or so. The market doesn't reflect reality--especially when the fed is printing unlimited sums of cash to help prop it up.

Well, a lot of companies that shouldn’t have fallen by more than fifty percent like restaurants and commercial real estate did. If Denny’s was worth 20/share in February and didn’t cause the coronavirus, it wasn’t worth only 7/share in March. The market eventually corrects those inefficiencies, but yeah, some of the gains are artificial and will crash but some industries are still undervalued. I think some of the gains are steady enough to give a bit of pause in what the next steps are.

I'm sorry, but this is just misinformed nonsense. The stock market does not drive business decisions of law firms. Stick to law, you really don't understand the markets.

The stock market absolutely affects law firm decisions and overall economic confidence. 99% of partners have some type of portfolio and follow the markets, so law firm management is keenly aware of overall financial conditions and it effects their decision-making.

[sparty99]

Not in big law but the stock market has gained back approximately 70% of its March losses over the past three and a half weeks. That may impact be a factor in why layoffs and salary reductions have stagnated.

Oil is basically worthless, there's warning signs that food supply chains are going to face significant disruption in the coming weeks, April 30th is coming up and nobody has an answer for what's going to happen when rent is due and nobody can pay. And yet the market is going up up up! Oil stocks(!) are actually up in the past week or so. The market doesn't reflect reality--especially when the fed is printing unlimited sums of cash to help prop it up.

Well, a lot of companies that shouldn’t have fallen by more than fifty percent like restaurants and commercial real estate did. If Denny’s was worth 20/share in February and didn’t cause the coronavirus, it wasn’t worth only 7/share in March. The market eventually corrects those inefficiencies, but yeah, some of the gains are artificial and will crash but some industries are still undervalued. I think some of the gains are steady enough to give a bit of pause in what the next steps are.

I'm sorry, but this is just misinformed nonsense. The stock market does not drive business decisions of law firms. Stick to law, you really don't understand the markets.

The stock market absolutely affects law firm decisions and overall economic confidence. 99% of partners have some type of portfolio and follow the markets, so law firm management is keenly aware of overall financial conditions and it effects their decision-making.

Everyone shutup. This has nothing to do with layoff predictions.

[$$$$$$]

Not in big law but the stock market has gained back approximately 70% of its March losses over the past three and a half weeks. That may impact be a factor in why layoffs and salary reductions have stagnated.

Oil is basically worthless, there's warning signs that food supply chains are going to face significant disruption in the coming weeks, April 30th is coming up and nobody has an answer for what's going to happen when rent is due and nobody can pay. And yet the market is going up up up! Oil stocks(!) are actually up in the past week or so. The market doesn't reflect reality--especially when the fed is printing unlimited sums of cash to help prop it up.

Well, a lot of companies that shouldn’t have fallen by more than fifty percent like restaurants and commercial real estate did. If Denny’s was worth 20/share in February and didn’t cause the coronavirus, it wasn’t worth only 7/share in March. The market eventually corrects those inefficiencies, but yeah, some of the gains are artificial and will crash but some industries are still undervalued. I think some of the gains are steady enough to give a bit of pause in what the next steps are.

I'm sorry, but this is just misinformed nonsense. The stock market does not drive business decisions of law firms. Stick to law, you really don't understand the markets.

The stock market absolutely affects law firm decisions and overall economic confidence. 99% of partners have some type of portfolio and follow the markets, so law firm management is keenly aware of overall financial conditions and it effects their decision-making.

If law firms use short-term directions of the stock market to decide what to do with their employees, then its no wonder most have such shitty businesses.

Mod Note: User $$$$$$ outed for anon abuse.

[The Lsat Airbender]

Not in big law but the stock market has gained back approximately 70% of its March losses over the past three and a half weeks. That may impact be a factor in why layoffs and salary reductions have stagnated.

Oil is basically worthless, there's warning signs that food supply chains are going to face significant disruption in the coming weeks, April 30th is coming up and nobody has an answer for what's going to happen when rent is due and nobody can pay. And yet the market is going up up up! Oil stocks(!) are actually up in the past week or so. The market doesn't reflect reality--especially when the fed is printing unlimited sums of cash to help prop it up.

Well, a lot of companies that shouldn’t have fallen by more than fifty percent like restaurants and commercial real estate did. If Denny’s was worth 20/share in February and didn’t cause the coronavirus, it wasn’t worth only 7/share in March. The market eventually corrects those inefficiencies, but yeah, some of the gains are artificial and will crash but some industries are still undervalued. I think some of the gains are steady enough to give a bit of pause in what the next steps are.

I'm sorry, but this is just misinformed nonsense. The stock market does not drive business decisions of law firms. Stick to law, you really don't understand the markets.

The stock market absolutely affects law firm decisions and overall economic confidence. 99% of partners have some type of portfolio and follow the markets, so law firm management is keenly aware of overall financial conditions and it effects their decision-making.

If law firms use short-term directions of the stock market to decide what to do with their employees, then its no wonder most have such shitty businesses.

anonymous user attacking a strawman? Never seen that before

[Pomeranian]

Not in big law but the stock market has gained back approximately 70% of its March losses over the past three and a half weeks. That may impact be a factor in why layoffs and salary reductions have stagnated.

Oil is basically worthless, there's warning signs that food supply chains are going to face significant disruption in the coming weeks, April 30th is coming up and nobody has an answer for what's going to happen when rent is due and nobody can pay. And yet the market is going up up up! Oil stocks(!) are actually up in the past week or so. The market doesn't reflect reality--especially when the fed is printing unlimited sums of cash to help prop it up.

Well, a lot of companies that shouldn’t have fallen by more than fifty percent like restaurants and commercial real estate did. If Denny’s was worth 20/share in February and didn’t cause the coronavirus, it wasn’t worth only 7/share in March. The market eventually corrects those inefficiencies, but yeah, some of the gains are artificial and will crash but some industries are still undervalued. I think some of the gains are steady enough to give a bit of pause in what the next steps are.

I'm sorry, but this is just misinformed nonsense. The stock market does not drive business decisions of law firms. Stick to law, you really don't understand the markets.

The stock market absolutely affects law firm decisions and overall economic confidence. 99% of partners have some type of portfolio and follow the markets, so law firm management is keenly aware of overall financial conditions and it effects their decision-making.

If law firms use short-term directions of the stock market to decide what to do with their employees, then its no wonder most have such shitty businesses.

The stock market is a joke right now. The S&P was up 500 points yesterday despite a horrid GDP report and preliminary data about a drug that may shorten hospital stays by a few days for some COVID patients.

[LSATWiz.com]

Not in big law but the stock market has gained back approximately 70% of its March losses over the past three and a half weeks. That may impact be a factor in why layoffs and salary reductions have stagnated.

Oil is basically worthless, there's warning signs that food supply chains are going to face significant disruption in the coming weeks, April 30th is coming up and nobody has an answer for what's going to happen when rent is due and nobody can pay. And yet the market is going up up up! Oil stocks(!) are actually up in the past week or so. The market doesn't reflect reality--especially when the fed is printing unlimited sums of cash to help prop it up.

Well, a lot of companies that shouldn’t have fallen by more than fifty percent like restaurants and commercial real estate did. If Denny’s was worth 20/share in February and didn’t cause the coronavirus, it wasn’t worth only 7/share in March. The market eventually corrects those inefficiencies, but yeah, some of the gains are artificial and will crash but some industries are still undervalued. I think some of the gains are steady enough to give a bit of pause in what the next steps are.

I'm sorry, but this is just misinformed nonsense. The stock market does not drive business decisions of law firms. Stick to law, you really don't understand the markets.

The stock market absolutely affects law firm decisions and overall economic confidence. 99% of partners have some type of portfolio and follow the markets, so law firm management is keenly aware of overall financial conditions and it effects their decision-making.

If law firms use short-term directions of the stock market to decide what to do with their employees, then its no wonder most have such shitty businesses.

The stock market is a joke right now. The S&P was up 500 points yesterday despite a horrid GDP report and preliminary data about a drug that may shorten hospital stays by a few days for some COVID patients.

I think that was tied to SPG and Disney announcing planned re-openings, which generated hope of the economy opening back up. SPG announced the reopening of many of its malls this Friday so that hype was amplified. I imagine those gains will be returned when the class actions for amplifying the spread of COVID-19 start coming in, in a few weeks. I agree that the market doesn't seem to understand there is a difference between a cure transmitted through an IV to hospitalized patients with a virus and a cure that prevents them from getting COVID to begin with (i.e. a vaccine).

But I didn't initially intend to go off on these tangents or suggest there's a 1:1 link between the market and layoffs. What I meant was that a month ago this was being compared to the Great Depression, and the current forecasts consider it the loss of one quarter of GDP and the minor recession that was expected for a year. I think the former calls for an immediate stoppage of all non-necessary spending (including hiring outside counsel) but the latter only calls for wariness over such spending. If the outbreak curve shoots backup or if we find out that having COVID-19 once doesn't meaningfully impact your chances of getting it again, which would also impact the viability of a vaccine (and create the possibility this can last for the next decade), then I imagine the layoff and salary freeze announcements are going to come back with a vengeance.

[VulcanVulcanVulcan]

What is going on Boies Schiller? https://www.law360.com/competition/arti ... -departure

"The firm also stopped providing health and other firm-sponsored benefits and declined to offer severance pay, according to a termination letter sent to employees Monday."

[Joachim2017]

What is going on Boies Schiller? https://www.law360.com/competition/arti ... -departure

"The firm also stopped providing health and other firm-sponsored benefits and declined to offer severance pay, according to a termination letter sent to employees Monday."

As others on this site have noted, we are watching Boies Schiller implode in front of us. The change in leadership combined with Covid-19 to create the perfect storm for them. The new leadership is not as popular and well-supported as the old; business has been steadily declining for multiple years; associate pay is about to undergo a huge shift (undercutting a big reason why top young associates originally saw the firm as attractive); and their greatest draw, David Boies, is soon to retire.

Some of us have been saying these things about BSF for months now, but others are too wedded to the status quo to be willing to see it in advance. A change from first-generation to second-generation management at a lit firm without reliable large-scale corporate clients is hard; this group is clearly not up to the task. Once associate comp drops at the end of this year and the current stable of associates see the hard dollar declines on their pay stubs, I doubt BSF will last beyond 2021.

I feel sort of sorry for the associates who joined in the last few years thinking it was an elite firm on par with SG or KH, but the warning signs have been there all along.

[The Lsat Airbender]

I doubt BSF will last beyond 2021.

I agree with the rest of your post but this is a bit extreme, unless your definition of "won't last" includes things like getting absorbed by a bigger full-service firm.

[Joachim2017]

I doubt BSF will last beyond 2021.

I agree with the rest of your post but this is a bit extreme, unless your definition of "won't last" includes things like getting absorbed by a bigger full-service firm.

If BSF gets absorbed by a bigger full-services firm, it will cease to be the elite litigation boutique it currently tries to market itself as. And it's associate comp structure, which is a huge factor in distinguishing it in the crowd, will not survive under that circumstance.

[The Lsat Airbender]

I doubt BSF will last beyond 2021.

I agree with the rest of your post but this is a bit extreme, unless your definition of "won't last" includes things like getting absorbed by a bigger full-service firm.

If BSF gets absorbed by a bigger full-services firm, it will cease to be the elite litigation boutique it currently tries to market itself as. And it's associate comp structure, which is a huge factor in distinguishing it in the crowd, will not survive under that circumstance.

Fair points. But from a junior/midlevel perspective it wouldn't be a complete slaughter either.

[Anonymous User]

Monthly billing/collection cycle just ended. I'd expect we'll see a new round of cost-savings measures in the coming weeks from those firms who either haven't adjusted yet but now see things worse than they were or did adjust and things are getting worse.

My firm hasn't moved on anything yet, but I'm assuming they'll do something - no amount of being fiscally conservative can prepare for this.

[Anonymous User]

I doubt BSF will last beyond 2021.

I agree with the rest of your post but this is a bit extreme, unless your definition of "won't last" includes things like getting absorbed by a bigger full-service firm.

If BSF gets absorbed by a bigger full-services firm, it will cease to be the elite litigation boutique it currently tries to market itself as. And it's associate comp structure, which is a huge factor in distinguishing it in the crowd, will not survive under that circumstance.

Fair points. But from a junior/midlevel perspective it wouldn't be a complete slaughter either.

Ironically it actually would be. (I've got a law school friend at BSF so I'm pretty in tune with it.) Their associate comp is designed so that you make the most $$ relative to your peers on the lockstep market scale when you're a junior and midlevel. As you get more senior the differences get leveled out. So even if BSF is absorbed by a larger firm with market pay, it's the juniors who will have lost the most $$, in terms of comp relative to their peers.

Although, its kind of a moot point because I assume their comp end of this year will be terrible anyway.

[DoveBodyWash]

What is going on Boies Schiller? https://www.law360.com/competition/arti ... -departure

"The firm also stopped providing health and other firm-sponsored benefits and declined to offer severance pay, according to a termination letter sent to employees Monday."

"Notwithstanding that their departures were expected, they made the decision to leave on short notice during a global pandemic," he said. "They made the decision to suddenly thrust all of their former associates and staff on us."

"That's not the way the world works," Gravante added. "Today was the departing partners' last day, and we clearly don't need, nor is it fair for us to bear the expense of, all of their former associates and staff."

Fucking bush league. Pathetic really.

[eastcoast_iub]

I feel bad for the associates, but how is this bush league? It's a business not a charity.

[trebekismyhero]

I feel bad for the associates, but how is this bush league? It's a business not a charity.

Not giving severance is bush league unless all these associates are guaranteed jobs at KS.

[DoveBodyWash]

I feel bad for the associates, but how is this bush league? It's a business not a charity.

Not giving severance is bush league unless all these associates are guaranteed jobs at KS.

They either literally can't afford to keep a handful of associates in a market that they claim remains a priority for them or they can and just being assholes. Either way, would have expected more from them.

[sparty99]

I feel bad for the associates, but how is this bush league? It's a business not a charity.

Not giving severance is bush league unless all these associates are guaranteed jobs at KS.

They either literally can't afford to keep a handful of associates in a market that they claim remains a priority for them or they can and just being assholes. Either way, would have expected more from them.

It is bush league for a big law firm not to offer severance. In lieu of severance they should be giving the associates two or three months notice so they can look around. That is real weak and pathetic.

[stoopkid13]

I feel bad for the associates, but how is this bush league? It's a business not a charity.

Not giving severance is bush league unless all these associates are guaranteed jobs at KS.

Article makes it sound like most, but not all, got offers at K&S same day.

[LBJ's Hair]

Their treatment of the *staff*, in particular, is absolutely disgusting. Forcing normal-ass people, who make less than six figures, in Los Angeles, off their healthcare plans, in the middle of a damn pandemic ...

Like this is just comically evil. Most *public companies* would not handle layoffs this way in normal circumstances lmao, let alone private partnerships during coronavirus

[Gravante] said that today was the departing partners' last day and that "we clearly don't need, nor is it fair for us to bear the expense of, all of their former associates and staff."

He said the same was true in Armonk — that the firm had parted ways with partners and counsel there as well.

"We don't want or need support staff sitting around doing nothing," he said. "The restructuring is moving forward full speed ahead. We have not and will not lay anyone off because of the COVID virus. But we are also not going to suspend the restructuring because of the pandemic."

[cheaptilts]

I think it’s very weird to absorb a boutique, hire associates from the boutique, hold them out as Boies associates, bill them out as Boies associates, and then treat them as “former associates of the boutique” at the drop of the dime. That stinks. You treated them like Boies associates when they were super profitable for you. Weird and sort of disrespectful to say that old PARTNERS of your firm simply “thrusted” these folks on you. You didn’t have to hire them.