The Legal Market for Entry Levels is not Improving, Fyi Forum

[sener212]

http://www.americanlawyer.com/PubArticl ... wn_in_2013

[kyle010723]

This is new and shocking how?

[sener212]

This is new and shocking how?

Not sure that I asserted that it's new and shocking. However, most people generally think that the legal economy will continue to get a little bit better each year since the recession. That's not the case. 2012 was actually better than 2013 for getting a Biglaw SA... I don't think most people saw that fact coming.

[NYstate]

This is new and shocking how?

I've read posts by 0Ls who are assuming that the market is slowly and steadily improving. Most people assume their chances are at least as good as the current 2L class. I'm sure some people will be surprised to see the class sizes went down for some firms this summer.

Plus, the chart should prove helpful. There are firms who no offered people last year that had much smaller classes this year.

[hashashin]

This is new and shocking how?

Not sure that I asserted that it's new and shocking. However, most people generally think that the legal economy will continue to get a little bit better each year since the recession. That's not the case. 2012 was actually better than 2013 for getting a Biglaw SA... I don't think most people saw that fact coming.

Not entirely sure that the data quite corroborates that assertion. Several firms on this list experienced major double digit increases (E.g. Milibank with an 86.4% increase). Preliminary data for the class of 2013 definitely suggests a rather large improvement for the rate of summer associateships in the T14 (GULC's and Duke's are the ones that I am familiar with). I think that we ought to reserve our pessimism until concrete data for the class of 2013 comes out.

[hashashin]

The average decline, moreover, was 3.4 % from last year's summer class; this is not exactly horrifying.

[NYstate]

This is new and shocking how?

Not sure that I asserted that it's new and shocking. However, most people generally think that the legal economy will continue to get a little bit better each year since the recession. That's not the case. 2012 was actually better than 2013 for getting a Biglaw SA... I don't think most people saw that fact coming.

Not entirely sure that the data quite corroborates that assertion. Several firms on this list experienced major double digit increases (E.g. Milibank with an 86.4% increase). Preliminary data for the class of 2013 definitely suggests a rather large improvement for the rate of summer associateships in the T14 (GULC's and Duke's are the ones that I am familiar with). I think that we ought to reserve our pessimism until concrete data for the class of 2013 comes out.

Milbank explained their increase as making up for years of under hiring. Who knows what their class size will be this year? The data shows an overall decrease from the firms that responded. These numbers don't support an overall increase.


What data are you waiting for that will show the SAs of T14 schools?

[sener212]

The average decline, moreover, was 3.4 % from last year's summer class; this is not exactly horrifying.

Agreed. But, generally, this data at least suggests that the market isn't improving for Biglaw SA's. I guess I think that is just a bit surprising.

[Betharl]

OK, so the summer class size dropped 3.4%. For that same class, overall ABA enrollment dropped 7.2%: http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ummary.asp. Also, SA class sizes increased substantially in the preceding year (summer 2012) http://www.chambers-associate.com/Pdfs/ ... s_size.pdf. So, I don't think a small pullback after a large increase is much to be concerned about, especially given the decrease in enrollment. It looks to me like class of 2013 probably did much better than 2012 and class of 2014 did about the same as 2013, maybe even a little better.

[NYstate]

OK, so the summer class size dropped 3.4%. For that same class, overall ABA enrollment dropped 7.2%: http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ummary.asp. Also, SA class sizes increased substantially in the preceding year (summer 2012) http://www.chambers-associate.com/Pdfs/ ... s_size.pdf. So, I don't think a small pullback after a large increase is much to be concerned about, especially given the decrease in enrollment. It looks to me like class of 2013 probably did much better than 2012 and class of 2014 did about the same as 2013, maybe even a little better.

Why are you comparing SA class size to enrollment?



And the summer class size on average dropped 3.4% but only for these firms as a group. It might be smarter to compare the totals of each year to see the overall number of SAs for each year. I'm not interested enough to do it.

[Betharl]

OK, so the summer class size dropped 3.4%. For that same class, overall ABA enrollment dropped 7.2%: http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ummary.asp. Also, SA class sizes increased substantially in the preceding year (summer 2012) http://www.chambers-associate.com/Pdfs/ ... s_size.pdf. So, I don't think a small pullback after a large increase is much to be concerned about, especially given the decrease in enrollment. It looks to me like class of 2013 probably did much better than 2012 and class of 2014 did about the same as 2013, maybe even a little better.

Why are you comparing SA class size to enrollment?



And the summer class size on average dropped 3.4% but only for these firms as a group. It might be smarter to compare the totals of each year to see the overall number of SAs for each year. I'm not interested enough to do it.

Simple math, if the total number of people competing for big law decreases, the % of people getting big law increases, all else constant. Total enrollment might not be the best proxy for number of people competing for big law, it might be better to go with enrollment (or graduates) at t14s/t1 schools/some other measure of # of "big law qualified" people, but it certainly correlates.

[sener212]

OK, so the summer class size dropped 3.4%. For that same class, overall ABA enrollment dropped 7.2%: http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ummary.asp. Also, SA class sizes increased substantially in the preceding year (summer 2012) http://www.chambers-associate.com/Pdfs/ ... s_size.pdf. So, I don't think a small pullback after a large increase is much to be concerned about, especially given the decrease in enrollment. It looks to me like class of 2013 probably did much better than 2012 and class of 2014 did about the same as 2013, maybe even a little better.

Do you have any evidence that the class of 2014 is going to end up doing a little bit better than the class of 2013? (other than aba decrease in enrollment)

I heard A LOT of people say during my first two years of law school that the economy is continuing to improve, and that legal hiring for class of 2014 should improve (if only slightly) over the class of 2013. I think it's significant that everyone may have been basically wrong about that.

[hashashin]

This is new and shocking how?

Not sure that I asserted that it's new and shocking. However, most people generally think that the legal economy will continue to get a little bit better each year since the recession. That's not the case. 2012 was actually better than 2013 for getting a Biglaw SA... I don't think most people saw that fact coming.

Not entirely sure that the data quite corroborates that assertion. Several firms on this list experienced major double digit increases (E.g. Milibank with an 86.4% increase). Preliminary data for the class of 2013 definitely suggests a rather large improvement for the rate of summer associateships in the T14 (GULC's and Duke's are the ones that I am familiar with). I think that we ought to reserve our pessimism until concrete data for the class of 2013 comes out.

Milbank explained their increase as making up for years of under hiring. Who knows what their class size will be this year? The data shows an overall decrease from the firms that responded. These numbers don't support an overall increase.


What data are you waiting for that will show the SAs of T14 schools?

Ummmm...the data that will contain the SA percentages of T14 schools for the class of 2014 (which would presumably be affected by this 3.4 percent "decline"). EIW results for 2013 should be up relatively soon. I guess we'll have a (flawed, but) decent idea of how badly/well things went at that point.

[Betharl]

Do you have any evidence do you have that the class of 2014 is going to end up doing a little bit better than the class of 2013? (other than aba decrease in enrollment)

Nope, not at all. Really, I think it will be about the same as 2013 which will be a decent bump up from 2012. Very interested to see what happens with demand for the classes of 2015 and 16.

[NYstate]

OK, so the summer class size dropped 3.4%. For that same class, overall ABA enrollment dropped 7.2%: http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ummary.asp. Also, SA class sizes increased substantially in the preceding year (summer 2012) http://www.chambers-associate.com/Pdfs/ ... s_size.pdf. So, I don't think a small pullback after a large increase is much to be concerned about, especially given the decrease in enrollment. It looks to me like class of 2013 probably did much better than 2012 and class of 2014 did about the same as 2013, maybe even a little better.

Why are you comparing SA class size to enrollment?



And the summer class size on average dropped 3.4% but only for these firms as a group. It might be smarter to compare the totals of each year to see the overall number of SAs for each year. I'm not interested enough to do it.

Simple math, if the total number of people competing for big law decreases, the % of people getting big law increases, all else constant. Total enrollment might not be the best proxy for number of people competing for big law, it might be better to go with enrollment (or graduates) at t14s/t1 schools/some other measure of # of "big law qualified" people, but it certainly correlates.

The number of people competing for biglaw is not decreasing. Only certain grads are competitive for biglaw. At least not that I have seen.

[NYstate]

Not entirely sure that the data quite corroborates that assertion. Several firms on this list experienced major double digit increases (E.g. Milibank with an 86.4% increase). Preliminary data for the class of 2013 definitely suggests a rather large improvement for the rate of summer associateships in the T14 (GULC's and Duke's are the ones that I am familiar with). I think that we ought to reserve our pessimism until concrete data for the class of 2013 comes out.[/quote]

Milbank explained their increase as making up for years of under hiring. Who knows what their class size will be this year? The data shows an overall decrease from the firms that responded. These numbers don't support an overall increase.


What data are you waiting for that will show the SAs of T14 schools?[/quote]

Ummmm...the data that will contain the SA percentages of T14 schools for the class of 2014 (which would presumably be affected by this 3.4 percent "decline"). EIW results for 2013 should be up relatively soon. I guess we'll have a (flawed, but) decent idea of how badly/well things went at that point.[/quote]

Is this NALP data? I didn't know they did SA data by school.

[Robespierre]

OK, so the summer class size dropped 3.4%. For that same class, overall ABA enrollment dropped 7.2%: http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ummary.asp. Also, SA class sizes increased substantially in the preceding year (summer 2012) http://www.chambers-associate.com/Pdfs/ ... s_size.pdf. So, I don't think a small pullback after a large increase is much to be concerned about, especially given the decrease in enrollment. It looks to me like class of 2013 probably did much better than 2012 and class of 2014 did about the same as 2013, maybe even a little better.

Awesome post. And that Chambers chart is money; thanks for posting it.

Gonna say again what I've posted before: When the numbers on Class of 2013 biglaw placement come out in Spring 2014 and show a big improvement over Class of 2012, the law schools are going to launch a huge offensive claiming the good times are back. That, coupled with any beneficial changes to lending policies (such as possibly repealing the tax bomb) will cause applications to start creeping up again.

[hashashin]

Is this NALP data? I didn't know they did SA data by school.

No, but some T14s DO post these stats on their websites (e.g. Chicago, NYU). The GULC info for SAs in the c/o 2013 has been circulated amongst students there (and been posted in a bunch of threads on TLS: basically, the rise was from 34% for the c/o 2011 to 52% MINIMUM for the c/o 2013) and Duke/Cornell's OCS also has been posting comparably optimistic numbers for their c/o 2013. Vandy and Texas (not sure about UCLA) MAY still be in a rut, though, judging by those schools' 2012 OCI pages (students there can comment on how accurate my impressions are).

[hashashin]

Granted, much of the data is school provided, but I really don't buy the Paul Campos/TTR line of distrusting even TOP (T14-T18) law schools over employment data. I think much of the resentment there derives from Nando and Campos' experience with their actual TTTs (Colorado and Drake) and extrapolating from that experience to reduce all apparent gaps in employment data at, say, GULC or Duke, to evidence of some sort of numbers-fudging conspiracy.

[justonemoregame]

I wish I could gaze into my crystal ball and see how long it will take me to go from the current 25K/year I currently make to 35K, then 45K.

[sener212]

I wish I could gaze into my crystal ball and see how long it will take me to go from the current 25K/year I currently make to 35K, then 45K.

??

[dixiecupdrinking]

As is often the case with these AmLaw survey pieces, you need to take this with a grain of salt because the response rate is low. Lots of firms with big classes don't respond. Just off a cursory glance, names missing include Davis Polk, Cleary, Covington, Wilmer, Sidley (reported "N/A" both years), MoFo... and that's just from the V20ish firms.

That said, yeah, I don't know why anyone would expect things to be any better than holding steady. Seems like this is the new normal. We're not going back to 2007.

[NYstate]

Granted, much of the data is school provided, but I really don't buy the Paul Campos/TTR line of distrusting even TOP (T14-T18) law schools over employment data. I think much of the resentment there derives from Nando and Campos' experience with their actual TTTs (Colorado and Drake) and extrapolating from that experience to reduce all apparent gaps in employment data at, say, GULC or Duke, to evidence of some sort of numbers-fudging conspiracy.

Campos went to Michigan.
Top schools lie and manipulate numbers too. You don't have to believe it. They may be more forthcoming now that they face more scrutiny.

[NYstate]

As is often the case with these AmLaw survey pieces, you need to take this with a grain of salt because the response rate is low. Lots of firms with big classes don't respond. Just off a cursory glance, names missing include Davis Polk, Cleary, Covington, Wilmer, Sidley (reported "N/A" both years), MoFo... and that's just from the V20ish firms.

That said, yeah, I don't know why anyone would expect things to be any better than holding steady. Seems like this is the new normal. We're not going back to 2007.

Good point.

[hashashin]

Granted, much of the data is school provided, but I really don't buy the Paul Campos/TTR line of distrusting even TOP (T14-T18) law schools over employment data. I think much of the resentment there derives from Nando and Campos' experience with their actual TTTs (Colorado and Drake) and extrapolating from that experience to reduce all apparent gaps in employment data at, say, GULC or Duke, to evidence of some sort of numbers-fudging conspiracy.

Campos went to Michigan.
Top schools lie and manipulate numbers too. You don't have to believe it. They may be more forthcoming now that they face more scrutiny.

Yes, but his experience with the deceit that he despises derives from his stint as a teacher at Colorado (if I'm not mistaken, the critical moment for him was when one of his students committed suicide b/c of his despair at the debt and prospect of perpetual unemployment entailed by Colorado). I think that, while much of what Campos tried to do was positive, it had the effect of legitimizing a lot of meaningless drivel as well e.g. TTT grads like Nando/JDU folk getting off on the fact that T14 grads had a couple of bad years (c/o 2011 for GULC; c/o 2009 for Duke); a lot of that was just unhinged and unconcealed schadenfreude. I think that Campos also, at times, conflates what are simply uncontrollable market dynamics (BigLaw caprice w/r/t hiring in recessions) with evidence of a "scam" or "conspiracy," when in truth top law schools would have nothing whatsoever to gain from performing badly on a variety of widely available metrics of employment and everything to lose: declining apps->smaller classes->lower revenue, student quality, etc.