Is The Industry This Bad? Forum

[NVResident]

Maybe as someone who is much older than most of the posters on this site I can provide some helpful perspective. In my professional life, this is the third recession (and by far the worst) I have experienced. Yes, the job market is extremely tough right now and yes, the schools are graduating more J.D.'s than there are legal jobs to fill. This is not unique to the legal profession however. Friends of mine who are engineers, carpenters, health care providers, etc. are all facing tough times in their respective industries. Just keep in mind that things will eventually get better.

The real question one has to ask themselves is would you rather be facing a tough employment market with a J.D. on your resume or without one? There are no guarantees in life, just probabilities. It has been my experience that you generally are better in the first situation even if the job you eventually get is not in the legal field. Granted the student debt loads are high, and I am certainly not advocating people get themselves $150 grand in the hole at any school, but if you can get your law degree with under six figures of debt (which is still realistic for many students), you should greatly increase your odds of success later in life. I have met few people who, when looking back on their careers, regretted having more education and a great number who have regretted having less.

[MrAnon]

I have met few people who, when looking back on their careers, regretted having more education and a great number who have regretted having less.

Agreed. But it comes down to whether you have a plan and are a dynamic person who can execute the plan. Bill Gates dropped out of college and so did John McEnroe. Both made a bit of gamble but they were confident that college wasn't going to be part of their success. Its always the losers who look back and say I wish I could have finished college or grad school. The winners laugh at those who keep plugging away at degree after degree after degree, pouring money into colleges and schools.

[NVResident]

I have met few people who, when looking back on their careers, regretted having more education and a great number who have regretted having less.

Agreed. But it comes down to whether you have a plan and are a dynamic person who can execute the plan. Bill Gates dropped out of college and so did John McEnroe. Both made a bit of gamble but they were confident that college wasn't going to be part of their success. Its always the losers who look back and say I wish I could have finished college or grad school. The winners laugh at those who keep plugging away at degree after degree after degree, pouring money into colleges and schools.

There are certainly those outliers who achieve great success through non-traditional means (I would recommend Malcolm Gladwell's excellent book "Outliers" for a glimpse of this phenomenon), and I certainly agree that over-credentialization can be just as big of a problem as a lack of academic experience, but my comments were really directed to the more typical example of the individual with a single bachelors degree and one (two at the most) advanced degrees.

Also, many of the people I know who wish they had more education (including myself) are precisely many of the financial "winners" you mentioned above. I can tell you from experience that money, while nice, certainly isn't everything.

[NYC Law]

Does anyone have any actual data to contribute or is this just going to be another "OMG THE SKY IS FALLING (EVEN THOUGH THIS IS BASED ENTIRELY ON SECOND HAND ESTIMATES)"?

I'm all for realism and skepticism, but the level of pessimism purported by a small sect of users is just retarded.

The most recent bureau of labor statistics estimate was about 30,000 entry level jobs open every year to new JDs, and about 45,000 new graduates. It noted competition would be keen, if I recall correctly.

So yeah. No bueno.

I'm familiar with the BLS info.
But you have to keep things in perspective; only 28% of law school graduates are graduating from a top 50 school, and a much smaller minority are graduating from a T6, so this data has nothing to do with T6-T14 prospects.
The only reasonable assertion you could make is that if you attend a law school completely at random, you'll have a 66.7% chance of landing a legal job (and assuming getting a job is random as well). But this isn't the case, especially since employment prospects aren't evenly distributed.
T14 schools realistically leave ~<10% without a legal job while TTTTs leave >50%, with the other schools falling somewhere in the middle.
The job market isn't great right now and there is significant risk involved, especially considering the debt levels, I'm not bitching about bringing that up. What's retarded is to actually entertain the idea that 30-40% of NYU/T14 grads aren't getting jobs.

You are wrong. There is all of the reason in the world to be pessimistic and you will be too once OCI and the potential of graduating unemployed is staring you in the face.

And I understand what you mean, I'm not saying ignorant optimism should be the standard, just realism or healthy skepticism. I start having nightmares and randomly freak out as the time to pack on the debt gets closer and the fantasy becomes a reality. Again, some people just take the pessimism to retarded levels though (The thread I keep thinking of is where a "T14 grad knew no one with big law").

[Anonymous User]

Any thoughts on how this crappy job market is affecting patent lawyers? I've read a few comments mentioning that even engineers are having problems finding work -- this is true and I'm one of them, though part of the problem is not being willing to relocate (I'm married and have a spouse to consider).

So, what about patent law? Any thoughts are starting a law degree now with an engineering background? Or is it better to just be a patent agent?

[Borhas]

Maybe as someone who is much older than most of the posters on this site I can provide some helpful perspective. In my professional life, this is the third recession (and by far the worst) I have experienced. Yes, the job market is extremely tough right now and yes, the schools are graduating more J.D.'s than there are legal jobs to fill. This is not unique to the legal profession however. Friends of mine who are engineers, carpenters, health care providers, etc. are all facing tough times in their respective industries. Just keep in mind that things will eventually get better.

The real question one has to ask themselves is would you rather be facing a tough employment market with a J.D. on your resume or without one? There are no guarantees in life, just probabilities. It has been my experience that you generally are better in the first situation even if the job you eventually get is not in the legal field. Granted the student debt loads are high, and I am certainly not advocating people get themselves $150 grand in the hole at any school, but if you can get your law degree with under six figures of debt (which is still realistic for many students), you should greatly increase your odds of success later in life. I have met few people who, when looking back on their careers, regretted having more education and a great number who have regretted having less.

the housing bubble burst was like the end of the world to Big Carpentry

[Renzo]

Maybe as someone who is much older than most of the posters on this site I can provide some helpful perspective. In my professional life, this is the third recession (and by far the worst) I have experienced. Yes, the job market is extremely tough right now and yes, the schools are graduating more J.D.'s than there are legal jobs to fill. This is not unique to the legal profession however. Friends of mine who are engineers, carpenters, health care providers, etc. are all facing tough times in their respective industries. Just keep in mind that things will eventually get better.

The real question one has to ask themselves is would you rather be facing a tough employment market with a J.D. on your resume or without one? There are no guarantees in life, just probabilities. It has been my experience that you generally are better in the first situation even if the job you eventually get is not in the legal field. Granted the student debt loads are high, and I am certainly not advocating people get themselves $150 grand in the hole at any school, but if you can get your law degree with under six figures of debt (which is still realistic for many students), you should greatly increase your odds of success later in life. I have met few people who, when looking back on their careers, regretted having more education and a great number who have regretted having less.

the housing bubble burst was like the end of the world to Big Carpentry

and small carpentry, and shitcarpentry. Pretty much all carpentry.

[Anonymous User]

It also depends a lot WHERE you're willing to go for work. If you isolate out certain markets, you will find that many of them are doing better than the country as a whole.

I'm an NYU student, but I'm spending the summer in Juneau, Alaska working for the state. Alaska's unemployment rate has DROPPED 6% since 2008 and their economy and government are still growing at a rate that puts them among the top 5 states in the country. Add to that the fact that there are no law schools in Alaska and you have a state welcoming lawyers (especially T6 lawyers) with open arms.

I'm not saying it would be easy to get a job here, I'm just saying there are places you can go where the economy isn't shit.

[robotclubmember]

Does anyone have any actual data to contribute or is this just going to be another "OMG THE SKY IS FALLING (EVEN THOUGH THIS IS BASED ENTIRELY ON SECOND HAND ESTIMATES)"?

I'm all for realism and skepticism, but the level of pessimism purported by a small sect of users is just retarded.

The most recent bureau of labor statistics estimate was about 30,000 entry level jobs open every year to new JDs, and about 45,000 new graduates. It noted competition would be keen, if I recall correctly.

So yeah. No bueno.

I'm familiar with the BLS info.
But you have to keep things in perspective; only 28% of law school graduates are graduating from a top 50 school, and a much smaller minority are graduating from a T6, so this data has nothing to do with T6-T14 prospects.
The only reasonable assertion you could make is that if you attend a law school completely at random, you'll have a 66.7% chance of landing a legal job (and assuming getting a job is random as well). But this isn't the case, especially since employment prospects aren't evenly distributed.
T14 schools realistically leave ~<10% without a legal job while TTTTs leave >50%, with the other schools falling somewhere in the middle.
The job market isn't great right now and there is significant risk involved, especially considering the debt levels, I'm not bitching about bringing that up. What's retarded is to actually entertain the idea that 30-40% of NYU/T14 grads aren't getting jobs.

You are wrong. There is all of the reason in the world to be pessimistic and you will be too once OCI and the potential of graduating unemployed is staring you in the face.

And I understand what you mean, I'm not saying ignorant optimism should be the standard, just realism or healthy skepticism. I start having nightmares and randomly freak out as the time to pack on the debt gets closer and the fantasy becomes a reality. Again, some people just take the pessimism to retarded levels though (The thread I keep thinking of is where a "T14 grad knew no one with big law").

In your analysis you have failed to recognize the cumulative impact of overcrowding. So BLS says each year, there are 30,000 entry level positions and 45,000 new JD grads.

2010:
45,000 grads
45,000 looking for positions
30,000 hired into entry level legal positions
15,000 JD's leftover

2011:
45,000 grads
15,000 from last year not hired in legal positions
60,000 looking for positions
30,000 hired into entry level legal positions
30,000 JD's leftover

then if the trend continued, this backlog of underutilized JD's continues to pile up (2010 = 15,000 left over, 2010 = 30,000 left over, 2011 = 45,000 left over and so on). now i know this is a rudimentary analysis that in no way accounts for JD's who give up on pursuing legal positions (and they shouldn't, they spent 3 years getting the degree, they should seek the ability to use it). nor does it account for organic growth, forecasted changes in the job market, whatever. but do you see where i'm getting here? the cumulative impact of an excess supply of lawyers will put increasingly more pressure on new grads. a bottleneck is being created. it is highly fathomable that this bottleneck will start to hitting graduates at even the very best schools in the country. i'm sorry that your analysis is flawed. but denying reality isn't helping you or any of the college juniors browsing this forum trying to decide if they should go to law school. the answer is, they shouldn't, unless they're damn sure.

[romothesavior]

Some people dont find jobs until they've actually been admitted to the bar.

This.

Graduating without a job as a lawyer =/= never finding a job as a lawyer.

And this.

1/3 is probably a tad high, but it shouldn't really be that surprising to find that ~1/4-1/3 of NYU's recent grads are looking for work. Outside of OCI, most firms and agencies hire after you take the bar. So if you struck out at OCI or were looking to work at a smaller firm/non-prestigious government agency/etc. that didn't do OCI, you're probably looking for a job. Even in good years, a decent chunk of people at NYU would be looking for jobs now if they didn't land the big law route or decide to go that route.

[NYC Law]

In your analysis you have failed to recognize the cumulative impact of overcrowding. So BLS says each year, there are 30,000 entry level positions and 45,000 new JD grads.

2010:
45,000 grads
45,000 looking for positions
30,000 hired into entry level legal positions
15,000 JD's leftover

2011:
45,000 grads
15,000 from last year not hired in legal positions
60,000 looking for positions
30,000 hired into entry level legal positions
30,000 JD's leftover

then if the trend continued, this backlog of underutilized JD's continues to pile up (2010 = 15,000 left over, 2010 = 30,000 left over, 2011 = 45,000 left over and so on). now i know this is a rudimentary analysis that in no way accounts for JD's who give up on pursuing legal positions (and they shouldn't, they spent 3 years getting the degree, they should seek the ability to use it). nor does it account for organic growth, forecasted changes in the job market, whatever. but do you see where i'm getting here? the cumulative impact of an excess supply of lawyers will put increasingly more pressure on new grads. a bottleneck is being created. it is highly fathomable that this bottleneck will start to hitting graduates at even the very best schools in the country. i'm sorry that your analysis is flawed. but denying reality isn't helping you or any of the college juniors browsing this forum trying to decide if they should go to law school. the answer is, they shouldn't, unless they're damn sure.

And your analysis doesn't take into consideration those choosing other professional jobs, JD Preferred jobs, going into Academia, Those who just stop looking for lawyer jobs, those who go back to school, etc. Of the remainder that actively look for jobs, it isn't unreasonable to assume growth can take care of the majority of the shortfalls, resulting in perhaps a minor backlog, but nothing that adds 15k per year.

Regardless, you have nothing of substance to add and don't prove that BLS stats have any actual relation to T14/NYU job prospects.

Even worse, I'm being lured into the equivalent of a cripple fight; two 0Ls arguing about job stats.

[flexityflex86]

i was not trying to present evidence or make some outlandish claim. i was merely citing what i heard in hopes of getting solid feedback. i've checked out websites like lawschooltransparency.com, etc., but those support the choice to go to a top 14. i was hoping to get a clear picture of where the market is heading for 2014 - and got 30 different opinions.

also, regarding the 45k jobs for 30k new lawyers - is this totally accurate? if so, can you really imagine that 66% of law students were employed from the get go? this would mean if 100% of nyu were employed, you could reasonably guess about 33% of cooly would be - not very realistic on either end, is it?

[NYC Law]

i was not trying to present evidence or make some outlandish claim. i was merely citing what i heard in hopes of getting solid feedback. i've checked out websites like lawschooltransparency.com, etc., but those support the choice to go to a top 14. i was hoping to get a clear picture of where the market is heading for 2014 - and got 30 different opinions.

c/o 2011 will be shit and each class after, especially for NY based schools, will be substantially better.

[flexityflex86]

i was not trying to present evidence or make some outlandish claim. i was merely citing what i heard in hopes of getting solid feedback. i've checked out websites like lawschooltransparency.com, etc., but those support the choice to go to a top 14. i was hoping to get a clear picture of where the market is heading for 2014 - and got 30 different opinions.

c/o 2011 will be shit and each class after, especially for NY based schools, will be substantially better.

what is your logic and evidence if you don't mind sharing?

[NYC Law]

i was not trying to present evidence or make some outlandish claim. i was merely citing what i heard in hopes of getting solid feedback. i've checked out websites like lawschooltransparency.com, etc., but those support the choice to go to a top 14. i was hoping to get a clear picture of where the market is heading for 2014 - and got 30 different opinions.

c/o 2011 will be shit and each class after, especially for NY based schools, will be substantially better.

what is your logic and evidence if you don't mind sharing?

Mostly NALP data. 2010 summer (OCI in 09) was the worst and a shit show, most SA classes were significantly cut further, which will result in miserable c/o 2011 stats, but SA classes for this summer almost fully rebounded (compared to 2010 summer, still not fully rebounded out of the recession though).

Here's a sampling of some SA classes in NY (some might accidentally be the Multi-Office Form, but its consistent across years for those firms) to give you an idea of what I'm talking about
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreads ... utput=html

[bk1]

also, regarding the 45k jobs for 30k new lawyers - is this totally accurate? if so, can you really imagine that 66% of law students were employed from the get go? this would mean if 100% of nyu were employed, you could reasonably guess about 33% of cooly would be - not very realistic on either end, is it?

I believe that sounds about accurate from what has been posted before. Consider that the worst T1's and the best T2's only place about 60% of their grads into full time lawyer jobs. Then consider that T1's/T2's only make up half of all the law schools and it is pretty easy to believe that there are 2 jobs for every 3 grads each year. Looking at LST, strong regionals show that they usually have around 75-80% full time lawyer employment and T14's have about 90-95%. But that was 2009.

I also recall a while back that a TLS poster (vanwinkle I think) made the point that because of all the churn in biglaw, the number of new jobs is inflated higher than reality because biglaw isn't really creating new positions rather it is just churning out 3rd-5th year associates for 1st year associates.

[flexityflex86]

also, regarding the 45k jobs for 30k new lawyers - is this totally accurate? if so, can you really imagine that 66% of law students were employed from the get go? this would mean if 100% of nyu were employed, you could reasonably guess about 33% of cooly would be - not very realistic on either end, is it?

I believe that sounds about accurate from what has been posted before. Consider that the worst T1's and the best T2's only place about 60% of their grads into full time lawyer jobs. Then consider that T1's/T2's only make up half of all the law schools and it is pretty easy to believe that there are 2 jobs for every 3 grads each year. Looking at LST, strong regionals show that they usually have around 75-80% full time lawyer employment and T14's have about 90-95%. But that was 2009.

I also recall a while back that a TLS poster (vanwinkle I think) made the point that because of all the churn in biglaw, the number of new jobs is inflated higher than reality because biglaw isn't really creating new positions rather it is just churning out 3rd-5th year associates for 1st year associates.

i think you misread my tone. 66% overall seems high. however, regarding vanwinkle's point, i don't mind that. if some 3rd-5th yr associate could not perform well enough to keep his/her job even through a tough economy, i don't mind that. my fear is going to a very good school (albeit not top 6 or so), working my ass off to do very well so doing well above average (but probably not 10% as i can't bet on this), and never getting a shot. i just want a shot to be able to support a family doing what i feel will best enable me to help my society, and i don't want the whole everyone has a shot if you have a dream speech. i just want to be able to control my own destiny, and not never get a shot or be in a position when i finally get one after i'm missing loan payments.

[stratocophic]

also, regarding the 45k jobs for 30k new lawyers - is this totally accurate? if so, can you really imagine that 66% of law students were employed from the get go? this would mean if 100% of nyu were employed, you could reasonably guess about 33% of cooly would be - not very realistic on either end, is it?

I believe that sounds about accurate from what has been posted before. Consider that the worst T1's and the best T2's only place about 60% of their grads into full time lawyer jobs. Then consider that T1's/T2's only make up half of all the law schools and it is pretty easy to believe that there are 2 jobs for every 3 grads each year. Looking at LST, strong regionals show that they usually have around 75-80% full time lawyer employment and T14's have about 90-95%. But that was 2009.

I also recall a while back that a TLS poster (vanwinkle I think) made the point that because of all the churn in biglaw, the number of new jobs is inflated higher than reality because biglaw isn't really creating new positions rather it is just churning out 3rd-5th year associates for 1st year associates.

i think you misread my tone. 66% overall seems high. however, regarding vanwinkle's point, i don't mind that. if some 3rd-5th yr associate could not perform well enough to keep his/her job even through a tough economy, i don't mind that. my fear is going to a very good school (albeit not top 6 or so), working my ass off to do very well so doing well above average (but probably not 10% as i can't bet on this), and never getting a shot. i just want a shot to be able to support a family doing what i feel will best enable me to help my society, and i don't want the whole everyone has a shot if you have a dream speech. i just want to be able to control my own destiny, and not never get a shot or be in a position when i finally get one after i'm missing loan payments.

That isn't how Biglaw works.

[romothesavior]

Mostly NALP data. 2010 summer (OCI in 09) was the worst and a shit show, most SA classes were significantly cut further, which will result in miserable c/o 2011 stats, but SA classes for this summer almost fully rebounded (compared to 2010 summer, still not fully rebounded out of the recession though).

No doubt this summer's classes did a bit better than last, and I do agree with you that classes starting with c/o 2012 will start to see improvements, but the bolded is false.

[thegrayman]

Perhaps anecdotal, but as part of my decision-making process of visiting schools I was admitted to, I took a tour of a school ranked 17-20. The tour was led by a 3L who had secured a biglaw job. I asked him and he answered very candidly about the job market.

He said very bluntly that about 40% of the graduating class was graduating without having a job lined up. This was some sobering news for me, considering that this school was very well established locally. I have no reason to believe that he was lying, as I was the only student on the tour, so it was just him and I.

This didn't really affect my decision to go to law school though, I'm still looking forward to it. I am someone who would much rather have a very realistic picture of what to expect than be lied to.

[NYC Law]

Mostly NALP data. 2010 summer (OCI in 09) was the worst and a shit show, most SA classes were significantly cut further, which will result in miserable c/o 2011 stats, but SA classes for this summer almost fully rebounded (compared to 2010 summer, still not fully rebounded out of the recession though).

No doubt this summer's classes did a bit better than last, and I do agree with you that classes starting with c/o 2012 will start to see improvements, but the bolded is false.

Yeah I agree with you after thinking about what I said, a ~40% improvement != ~100% improvement.

[robotclubmember]

if some 3rd-5th yr associate could not perform well enough to keep his/her job even through a tough economy, i don't mind that.

vanwinkle was describing attrition. those associates aren't getting canned, they're leaving for something else, like in-house. professional services firms tend to be revolving doors. not everyone joins with partner track intentions, some people are just staying in long enough to pay off their debts before settling down to a more stable work environment.

And your analysis doesn't take into consideration those choosing other professional jobs, JD Preferred jobs, going into Academia, Those who just stop looking for lawyer jobs, those who go back to school, etc. Of the remainder that actively look for jobs, it isn't unreasonable to assume growth can take care of the majority of the shortfalls, resulting in perhaps a minor backlog, but nothing that adds 15k per year.

Regardless, you have nothing of substance to add and don't prove that BLS stats have any actual relation to T14/NYU job prospects.

Even worse, I'm being lured into the equivalent of a cripple fight; two 0Ls arguing about job stats.

i acknowledged that my analysis is lulzy in its broad assumptions, but it was to make a point, that cumulative effects of overcrowding need to be considered too. what, so we all know that too many graduates are being churned out this year. but what about the excess from last year? and the year before? i think it's a substantial point.

as far as new grads go, yes, i didn't count academia. do you think many fresh JD's are going straight into academia? enough to relieve the excess of JD's? and no, i didn't think about grads going back to school.... any JD who goes to school after receiving his/her doctorate doesn't need more education, but they may be doing it because they didn't find a job. you're critiquing my analysis because i neglected drops in the bucket, ok, and i appreciate that. but my point was just to acknowledge that the cumulative effects of excess supply of JD's is a factor worth considering that could explain why even T14 schools aren't as safe as they used to be (and I still generally consider them safe, or I wouldn't be going to one).

c/o 2011 will be shit and each class after, especially for NY based schools, will be substantially better.

this depends on the economy in the future, not historical NALP data from the past. most economic indicators point to a downturn in the future. also. you're assuming that issues in the job market for lawyers are purely cyclical and not systemic. there's a lot of evidence that suggests that some of the downturn in hiring may be systemic and permanent in nature. routine contract work can be outsourced to temps in the US or even india, software can perform certain tasks like discovery now. organic growth has to address systemic changes in the legal market as well as cyclical downturns in the economy.

lastly, yes i'm an 0L, but i've worked at a professional services firm (big 4 accounting, not legal) for over three years, it's not like i don't follow the economy. the job stats are just as publicly available to me as they are to you, and some people not in the legal field who follow them might even be in a better position to comment on what those stats mean than a law student who doesn't have a financial background. by your logic, a person in training to be a line cook at mcdonald's would have better insight into national fast food hiring than an economist. and that may be true in some cases. but it probably makes the most sense for different perspectives to be supplementary to each other.

[V811]

Perhaps anecdotal, but as part of my decision-making process of visiting schools I was admitted to, I took a tour of a school ranked 17-20. The tour was led by a 3L who had secured a biglaw job. I asked him and he answered very candidly about the job market.

He said very bluntly that about 40% of the graduating class was graduating without having a job lined up. This was some sobering news for me, considering that this school was very well established locally. I have no reason to believe that he was lying, as I was the only student on the tour, so it was just him and I.

This didn't really affect my decision to go to law school though, I'm still looking forward to it. I am someone who would much rather have a very realistic picture of what to expect than be lied to.

Jesus. You were talking about USC? I'm headed to usc in the fall....

[ChemistryMatters]

Any thoughts on patent lawyer jobs? I'm a 0L in Seattle -- the economy wasn't hit as hard here as in some other places, but I'm new to the area and still unsure of what to expect.

[big_blue79]

A family friend of my girlfriend's mentioned her daughter's boyfriend

Solid.