T10 3L Discusses The Job Market ITE (Qs Welcome) Forum

[dood]

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[FrankReynolds]

Job prospects were great at 2007 OCI, and have dropped off substantially the past 2 years. To suggest that they will improve next year is akin to the people who buy stocks thinking it is the bottom, when we are only halfway there. One key factor in stock trading is recognizing that until something actually starts rising, it is a bit silly to assume you have hit a bottom.

My guess is that although things will not drop off as much next year as they did this year, to hope that the job market for lawyers will improve is wishful thinking. I think if things stay roughly the same next year as this year, everyone should be pleased. To think there will be much more than a minor increase in available jobs is silly. The legal market is not just going to skyrocket overnight. The huge advantage students have at next year's OCI is information and time. Class of 2011 pretty much got blindsided, while Class of 2012 should know what they are getting into.

[rayiner]

Job prospects were great at 2007 OCI, and have dropped off substantially the past 2 years. To suggest that they will improve next year is akin to the people who buy stocks thinking it is the bottom, when we are only halfway there. One key factor in stock trading is recognizing that until something actually starts rising, it is a bit silly to assume you have hit a bottom.

My guess is that although things will not drop off as much next year as they did this year, to hope that the job market for lawyers will improve is wishful thinking. I think if things stay roughly the same next year as this year, everyone should be pleased. To think there will be much more than a minor increase in available jobs is silly. The legal market is not just going to skyrocket overnight. The huge advantage students have at next year's OCI is information and time. Class of 2011 pretty much got blindsided, while Class of 2012 should know what they are getting into.

You're making an analogy between the stock market and hiring that isn't really supportable. The stock market is most sensitive to the level of economic activity. Hiring is most sensitive to changes in the level of economic activity. It is easy to see this in action: the level of legal demand has stabilized at about 10% below what it was at its peak, taking it back to 2006 levels. Yet, 2006 was a boom year for hiring, while 2009 is a bust year for hiring. That doesn't make sense until you remember that legal demand was increasing in 2006 but decreasing in 2009, despite being at the same level.

I did an analysis of the last recession:
http://www.top-law-schools.com/forums/v ... 4#p1680149

Note two features of the data:

1) Associate head-counts decreased overall in 2004, 2005, yet hiring at the T14 schools remained robust.
2) The worst hiring year (2004) was immediately followed by a great hiring year (2005).

The stock market wasn't even booming during 2003 OCI.



It had clearly been recovering for months since the most recent crash, but in July 2003 it was basically at the same level it had been in July 2002. The difference was not the level, but the sign of the derivative.

That is not to say I think 2012 will be a booming hiring year. Rather, I think that if it's as bad as this year, it won't be because the economy isn't back to boom levels. The current recovery may prove to fictional and we could have a second market collapse, or deferrals to 2012 could become common place. Those are certainly very real possibilities. However, if the DOW is at 10-11k and trends slightly up from April to August, and the associate backlog really gets mostly cleared away with this year's class, then hiring next year could be surprisingly decent.

[FrankReynolds]

obviously the analogy is not perfect. it was meant to show that people tend to think things will come back earlier/faster than they do.

[rayiner]

obviously the analogy is not perfect. it was meant to show that people tend to think things will come back earlier/faster than they do.

Sure, no analogy is perfect, but for analogies to make sense the two things have to behave at least somewhat similarly...

As for things coming back earlier/faster than they do --- if you had predicted in 2002 that 2003 OCI would be great (despite a terrible 2001 OCI and an even worse 2002 OCI), you would've been right. I'm not making such a prediction, rather I'm looking at the structural factors that could lead to one result versus the other.

[legends159]

hot damn rayiner, get back to law school work and stop getting sidetracked.

wonderful posts though btw. You sure you don't wanna go into consulting work instead of being a lawyer? I suppose corporate law would be a great compromise for you.

[Hoopster]

Informative thread! I realize it might seem silly but I wonder what the ramifications the job market as being discussed here have on current students from YLS and SLS? Anyone from either school here or know of someone from there that can answer this?

Thanks!

[FrankReynolds]

yea yea rayiner... whatever helps you not lose your mind... 2010 OCI will make you look silly.

[Apple Tree]

I'm just wondering:

If T-10 students can't even land a job, how are the rest of the hundreds of schools doing? What about regional schools, like UT, UIUC, Boston? I live in MS now and I know students graduated from in-state programs can't find (good) jobs...This is really scary.

[showNprove]

I'm just wondering:

If T-10 students can't even land a job, how are the rest of the hundreds of schools doing? What about regional schools, like UT, UIUC, Boston? I live in MS now and I know students graduated from in-state programs can't find (good) jobs...This is really scary.

Edit: I thought that said "what are the rest of the hundreds of schools doing?"

[Anonymous Loser]

1) Why did you resurrect this thread?

2) You live in Mississippi: the job market there is far from representative of the rest of the country. Were Ole Miss grads ever well situated?

edit: sorry, I was referring to the post above.

[lawlover829]

I'm just wondering:

If T-10 students can't even land a job, how are the rest of the hundreds of schools doing? What about regional schools, like UT, UIUC, Boston? I live in MS now and I know students graduated from in-state programs can't find (good) jobs...This is really scary.

Edit: I thought that said "what are the rest of the hundreds of schools doing?"

not related to this post but I heart your pic.

[pithypike]

.

[showNprove]

I'm just wondering:

If T-10 students can't even land a job, how are the rest of the hundreds of schools doing? What about regional schools, like UT, UIUC, Boston? I live in MS now and I know students graduated from in-state programs can't find (good) jobs...This is really scary.

Edit: I thought that said "what are the rest of the hundreds of schools doing?"

not related to this post but I heart your pic.

my pic hearts you

[Apple Tree]

1) Why did you resurrect this thread?

2) You live in Mississippi: the job market there is far from representative of the rest of the country. Were Ole Miss grads ever well situated?

edit: sorry, I was referring to the post above.

1. I just did a search on "job market" and this was the first post that came up.

2. I don't plan on staying here but this is just what I'm hearing... The two schools here are TTT and TTTT, but their students used to be able to find jobs pretty easily around here and now none of the students (or most of them) could. I know MS is among the poorest states in the country, and I think because it is so poor that it did not get affected by the economy as heavily as the rest of the country did. However, I think the market here does reflect the national market on some degree. I'm just not sure if all the regions are doing this bad.