2019 - Bonus Speculation Thread Forum

[impactplayer]

I guess it's been over 10 years now but they did fire over 400 people in 2009. Agree that the stink should have followed them longer. That's not to say that other firms weren't shitty as well during that time. There were tons of stealth layoffs and entire summer associate classes that were no offered or pushed back a year. Going to law school from 2007 - 2010 was rough.

[Monochromatic Oeuvre]

LOL the ten-year stink. Do you bubbled speculators realize that even most T14 kids wind up at law school because they can’t think of anything else to do after college or don’t see a way forward in some dead-end job? Might be as little as two years from when someone thinks about the legal industry for the first time to when they do OCI. Most people just pick the highest Vault firm; they don’t even know anything the firm does now, let alone firings from three generations of associates ago.

[KD35]

(Shameless prodding this forward)

Do we think there will be more announcements this week? Or are the masses waiting for Cravath to make a statement?

[MillllerTime]

(Shameless prodding this forward)

Do we think there will be more announcements this week? Or are the masses waiting for Cravath to make a statement?

There's no benefit to being the second mover here, so not sure why anyone else would announce earlier than usual if they are just matching. If someone wants to be a hero (looking at you STB), might make sense to go early, but if a big firm is going over the top they may also want to see Cravath first (both to make sure they are actually higher than Cravath and also so they can say they beat Cravath).

In any event, I fully expect Cravath to announce a match of THE MILBANK SCALE next week and for every other firm to quickly fall in line.

[Anonymous User]

My prediction is that Cravath will come over the top now — even if they were not planning to before. Cravath is the BigLaw comp leader, and will put the maverick Milbank in its place. When Milbank raised to 190K last year and STB added summer bonuses, Cravath still had the final word. I don’t think they’ll stand by and allow it to be called the Milbank scale. Not many folks realize perception is a huge part of Cravath’s success.

— Current V5 associate with lots of debt hoping my theory of Cravath’s inner workings is correct.

[Anonymous User]

Partners at my V30 have told me the firm is preparing with the expectation of a recession in early/mid-2020. If other firms are thinking the same, I would not expect an increase this year.

My more optimistic take: a well-situated firm could use a bump now as a chance to further separate the wheat from the chaff, since some firms probably couldn't keep up.

[dabigchina]

My prediction is that Cravath will come over the top now — even if they were not planning to before. Cravath is the BigLaw comp leader, and will put the maverick Milbank in its place. When Milbank raised to 190K last year and STB added summer bonuses, Cravath still had the final word. I don’t think they’ll stand by and allow it to be called the Milbank scale. Not many folks realize perception is a huge part of Cravath’s success.

— Current V5 associate with lots of debt hoping my theory of Cravath’s inner workings is correct.

if this were 2001, you would be right. however, cravath hasn't been a comp leader for more than a decade now. The last 3 comp leaders (which takes us back to the 160 scale) were gunderson, stb/dpw, and milbank.

[BrainsyK]

if this were 2001, you would be right. however, cravath hasn't been a comp leader for more than a decade now. The last 3 comp leaders (which takes us back to the 160 scale) were gunderson, stb/dpw, and milbank.

Didn't Cravath raise to 180 in mid-2016?

[dabigchina]

if this were 2001, you would be right. however, cravath hasn't been a comp leader for more than a decade now. The last 3 comp leaders (which takes us back to the 160 scale) were gunderson, stb/dpw, and milbank.

Didn't Cravath raise to 180 in mid-2016?

that's fair, you're right. i still stand by the general thrust of my post. CSM isn't the undisputed comp leader anymore. STB and DPW both are just as likely to set the scale.

[Anonymous User]

Cravath announced. Flat across the board for both bonus and base.

[lionelhutz123]

Davis Polk going to come back over the top to rebut their racial discrimination lawsuit PR.

[yodamiked]

Cravath announced. Flat across the board for both bonus and base.

That was quick.

[dyemond]

DPW, Skadden, STB aren't going to raise, K&E will remain 25-33% above market (no 2017 cushion).

Most firms are expecting a mild-ish recession. Cravath and Milbank are getting out ahead of a potential (although unlikely) raise - assuming DPW or STB fall in line that will be the market for the year.

[Anonymous User]

PW matched.

[yodamiked]

Looks like Fried Frank matched. I didn't have much hope to begin with, but I think the dream of a bonus increase is now dead.

[lionelhutz123]

In DPW we trust.

[imnottelling]

In DPW we trust.

Not gonna happen. New managing attorney, new lawsuit. No way. STB FTW!

[KM2016]

The "looming recession" is just a straw man to justify flat bonuses...

https://www.law.com/americanlawyer/2019 ... i-reports/

[dabigchina]

Can we talk about how cravath now follows Milbank's lead on compensation? Is it officially the "Milbank scale" now?

Also, comp at junior levels is too low now. I've heard of offers that are competitive with biglaw salaries for in house positions being offered to first (!), second and third years. Why the hell would anyone stick around if they can make the same money working less elsewhere?

[Anonymous User]

Current DPW Associate here. while I’d love to be wrong, I’d be beyond shocked if we raised associate comp (despite in general having a very good year as a firm).

As I understand it, there was some client pushback the last time DPW did this. That, combined with general (totally unsubstantiated) recession fears, fears about partner poaching at a lock step firm, new managing partner... yeah it isn’t going to be DPW.

[LaLiLuLeLo]

Ugh how am I supposed to feed my family

[objctnyrhnr]

Ugh how am I supposed to feed my family

This comment wins.

I used to be in govt and I have become somewhat disgusted by the “issues” (with heavy quotes) raised during my periodic biglaw associate meetings.

[QContinuum]

Ugh how am I supposed to feed my family

This comment wins.

I used to be in govt and I have become somewhat disgusted by the “issues” (with heavy quotes) raised during my periodic biglaw associate meetings.

I don't think BigLaw associates (or even partners) lose the right to complain about their work/pay just because other lawyers have it (much) worse*. That's like telling someone who got robbed, "hey, you've got nothing to complain about; don't you realize, but for your good fortune, you could've been born a starving orphan in Africa?!"

*I'd also argue that government lawyers don't necessarily have it "much worse". In pay, certainly, but for many, the nature of the work, plus a (much) more humane work/life balance, makes up for the pay differential.

[BlackAndOrange84]

Ugh how am I supposed to feed my family

https://twitter.com/dril/status/3844089 ... 72?lang=en

[dabigchina]

Ugh how am I supposed to feed my family

This comment wins.

I used to be in govt and I have become somewhat disgusted by the “issues” (with heavy quotes) raised during my periodic biglaw associate meetings.

I think he/she might have been joking.