What's going on in Texas? Forum

[eagle2a]

I'm a 1L at SMU, should I just go ahead and drop?

[Johann]

I'm a 1L at SMU, should I just go ahead and drop?

no. just dont get into O&G if you can avoid it. but you wont have that problem because no one will be hiring for it in 8 months.

[Anonymous User]

I do know the market well enough to know its fucked right now. I'm not dooming and glooming for the sake of it. I'm letting people know that right now I would not take a job in oil and gas if I had another offer, would probably take a little pay cut if it demanded for the job security in competing offers (ie NYC or west coast work), and would have an updated polished resume being fired out if I was an associate. This is just prudent in times like these. I have no horse in the race since my work does not depend on this. But I'm not speculating out of my ass. I contributed to this thread a month ago. I have connections in the market in the industry, and I sort of have some overlap with the industry where I hear about it but again I'm not dependent on it. I'm merely trying to give socially inept people who don't understand business a nudge to not tie the rest of their career and livelihood to a sinking ship like oil. Don't run around the office with your head cut off, don't tell other people shit; but keep firing out apps and seeing what else is out there. And if you get an Competitive offer, you should absolutely leave the industry. That's all I'm saying.

It's fine to come in here and provide a perspective, but it's also not cool to use hyperbole to fear monger when there are other legitimate things to look at. You completely misconstrued the ATL article. Malonson was definitely not a stealth layoff. It seems like he got caught in a crappy situation, but your implication that this means layoffs for several associates at V&E will occur as a result is off base. I'm not at V&E and I haven't talked to anyone about working with him there, but it's very unlikely that he had a book that could provide work for multiple associates. If he did, there is almost no way STB wouldn't have taken him alone and V&E probably would have welcomed him back with McWilliams unless he really torched the place on his way out.

You are also misunderstanding the portion about lateraling. The cap markets mid level and senior associate(s) claimed they were having a hard time lateraling to the main (maybe only) firms in HOUSTON really looking for laterals right now because most of the work at these places is in M&A. It doesn't say anything about cap markets associates trying to lateral to NY, Atlanta, or wherever.

The information your friend gave you is helpful, but it also seems like an exaggeration. I think there are like 300 total associates at the big 3. I'm not sure I buy that over 15% of those people sent unsolicited resumes to the same O&G company unsolicited over a span of 30 days, but I'm sure they got some (and yes, maybe there are a few counsels and service partners in that pile).

Things are slower in some practices, no question, though.

[Anonymous User]

I am a 1st year at one of the big 3 (class of 2015). The consensus among 1st years is that we're pretty lucky to be c/o 2015 and not 2016 or 2017. Incoming class in 2016 is about half of 2015.

No law review, unspectacular grades -- highly doubt I would have landed big law had I been c/o 2016 or 2017.

[zot1]

I'm a 1L at SMU, should I just go ahead and drop?

Eagle, stop looking for excuses to drop out.

[Anonymous User]

I do know the market well enough to know its fucked right now. I'm not dooming and glooming for the sake of it. I'm letting people know that right now I would not take a job in oil and gas if I had another offer, would probably take a little pay cut if it demanded for the job security in competing offers (ie NYC or west coast work), and would have an updated polished resume being fired out if I was an associate. This is just prudent in times like these. I have no horse in the race since my work does not depend on this. But I'm not speculating out of my ass. I contributed to this thread a month ago. I have connections in the market in the industry, and I sort of have some overlap with the industry where I hear about it but again I'm not dependent on it. I'm merely trying to give socially inept people who don't understand business a nudge to not tie the rest of their career and livelihood to a sinking ship like oil. Don't run around the office with your head cut off, don't tell other people shit; but keep firing out apps and seeing what else is out there. And if you get an Competitive offer, you should absolutely leave the industry. That's all I'm saying.

It's fine to come in here and provide a perspective, but it's also not cool to use hyperbole to fear monger when there are other legitimate things to look at. You completely misconstrued the ATL article. Malonson was definitely not a stealth layoff. It seems like he got caught in a crappy situation, but your implication that this means layoffs for several associates at V&E will occur as a result is off base. I'm not at V&E and I haven't talked to anyone about working with him there, but it's very unlikely that he had a book that could provide work for multiple associates. If he did, there is almost no way STB wouldn't have taken him alone and V&E probably would have welcomed him back with McWilliams unless he really torched the place on his way out.

You are also misunderstanding the portion about lateraling. The cap markets mid level and senior associate(s) claimed they were having a hard time lateraling to the main (maybe only) firms in HOUSTON really looking for laterals right now because most of the work at these places is in M&A. It doesn't say anything about cap markets associates trying to lateral to NY, Atlanta, or wherever.

The information your friend gave you is helpful, but it also seems like an exaggeration. I think there are like 300 total associates at the big 3. I'm not sure I buy that over 15% of those people sent unsolicited resumes to the same O&G company unsolicited over a span of 30 days, but I'm sure they got some (and yes, maybe there are a few counsels and service partners in that pile).

Things are slower in some practices, no question, though.

I agree with this. I also think that while the energy practices may be more "specialized" - the associates in the "corporate groups" are less so. I am in a general corporate practice and M&A is M&A. It is not that different because you are dealing with a MLP rather thana c-corp most the time. In fact, most just use Holdcos to do everything anyways. I would almost argue that the MLP structure, if anything, adds more sophistication to the Capital Markets side of the equation. There is also a lot of "unique" work around debt and preferred offerings right now that is providing substantive experience. Sure, things could get bad. But right now, it seems like things in general corporate are still busy and I think if you are at a Big3 (well, for corporate I guess more like BB/VE/Latham/K&E (Norton Rose doesnt really have a big corporate practice) you can lateral to other cities. If you are in an energy specific practice, it may be harder. Also, history will repeat itself. The O&G market is not "dead forever" - this is what they said in the 80s and they said it again during the last recession (both times saying we would never again see $100+ oil - yet it happened again. America still runs on oil and there is no way OPEC is going to let it stay low in perpetuity. They will gain back market share (as they have been) and when they want, prices will spike back up.

Tl;dr: corporate associates in Houston are not "specialized" - M&A is M&A and the process is similar throughout industries. Oil prices will bounce back eventually - it may be a couple years, but it will boom again.

[Johann]

these are the facts we can agree on:

Jeff Malonson a partner with 16.5 years of experience at V&E in capital markets that was good enough to be recruited and offered partnership by a V10 firm sometime within the last 4 months or so is no longer employed by ANY firm and will probably collect an unemployment check in 2 weeks. I'll set an even odds over under of 1.5 months (April 14 is a push) for an update on his employment on LinkedIn and will take action from $0 to $1,000 if any of you want to back up you're talk right now.

The class size of 2016 is about half the size of the class of 2015 for a certain Big 3 firm (Big 3 class of 2015 associate upthread).

USO (oil ETF) has lost 80% of its value since June 2014 when the class of 2016 was hired.

Layoffs have started in the O&G industry (TLS thread).
____________________________

Do what you want with those facts. But my advice has only been if you have a similar offer outside of O&G, take it. I have never said O&G is dead forever. In fact, I've considered investing $10k or so in some oil stocks. This is a career though - a one step move with incomplete information rather than a repeatable game. That changes the game theory decision tree of this drastically. I stand by my 95%/5% split, which is a relatively safe risk in a repeatable game. Problem is if O&G is down for 2 years (like the economy in 2008) that's enough to sink a career, and a career isn't a repeatable game you can play 100 times. I'm old enough and my friends are old enough to have interacted with the Latham and Winston cuts who were doing doc review for $27 an hour with no clear path to right their career.

If you're from Texas at NYU and have offers from Davis Polk NYC or Texas, take the NYC gig. If you're from Texas and at Baylor and only have an offer in O&G, sure take the O&G.

[Abbie Doobie]

these are the facts we can agree on:

Jeff Malonson a partner with 16.5 years of experience at V&E in capital markets that was good enough to be recruited and offered partnership by a V10 firm sometime within the last 4 months or so is no longer employed by ANY firm and will probably collect an unemployment check in 2 weeks. I'll set an even odds over under of 1.5 months (April 14 is a push) for an update on his employment on LinkedIn and will take action from $0 to $1,000 if any of you want to back up you're talk right now.

The class size of 2016 is about half the size of the class of 2015 for a certain Big 3 firm (Big 3 class of 2015 associate upthread).

USO (oil ETF) has lost 80% of its value since June 2014 when the class of 2016 was hired.

Layoffs have started in the O&G industry (TLS thread).
____________________________

Do what you want with those facts. But my advice has only been if you have a similar offer outside of O&G, take it. I have never said O&G is dead forever. In fact, I've considered investing $10k or so in some oil stocks. This is a career though - a one step move with incomplete information rather than a repeatable game. That changes the game theory decision tree of this drastically. I stand by my 95%/5% split, which is a relatively safe risk in a repeatable game. Problem is if O&G is down for 2 years (like the economy in 2008) that's enough to sink a career, and a career isn't a repeatable game you can play 100 times. I'm old enough and my friends are old enough to have interacted with the Latham and Winston cuts who were doing doc review for $27 an hour with no clear path to right their career.

If you're from Texas at NYU and have offers from Davis Polk NYC or Texas, take the NYC gig. If you're from Texas and at Baylor and only have an offer in O&G, sure take the O&G.

pretty sure you can't collect unemployment if you voluntarily quit your job

[Gators]

Things haven't yet gotten really ugly in Texas biglaw yet but they certainly could (likely will). In 2008/2009, energy stayed busy. Not going to happen this time. I could see entire firms collapsing.

[Anonymous User]

I am c/o 2016, median at a T10, Texas ties. I targeted Texas and struck out at OCI. I assumed it was grades and interviewing skills, and maybe it was, but lots of alums in networking lunches and the like have talked about how it was bad timing and energy is hurting.

I'm kind of fucked because I went all-in on Texas and energy. I have no idea what I am going to do after I graduate (in, oh, three months now).

[Johann]

I am c/o 2016, median at a T10, Texas ties. I targeted Texas and struck out at OCI. I assumed it was grades and interviewing skills, and maybe it was, but lots of alums in networking lunches and the like have talked about how it was bad timing and energy is hurting.

I'm kind of fucked because I went all-in on Texas and energy. I have no idea what I am going to do after I graduate (in, oh, three months now).

Sorry to hear. Keep hustling. Might be a blessing in disguise if you get into another industry.

[TheoO]

It's kind of interesting because at CLS, we have had a lot of Texas firms coming in trying to downplay ties to get more people to apply to Texas. We have had several partners come in praising the COL in Texas, the hours, etc., all in an effort to lure in more students

[Anonymous User]

It's kind of interesting because at CLS, we have had a lot of Texas firms coming in trying to downplay ties to get more people to apply to Texas. We have had several partners come in praising the COL in Texas, the hours, etc., all in an effort to lure in more students

Not really surprising though. If there is a growing concern about the energy market and work deriving therefrom, Texas firms in that industry are going to want to increase applicants (via marketing) to replace those that have better options or choose not to go due to the economic environment. Firms still need somewhat of a summer class in case/when the economy picks up, even if that is a long way down the road. There are also reputational and competitive aspects for firms to consider.

[Johann]

It's kind of interesting because at CLS, we have had a lot of Texas firms coming in trying to downplay ties to get more people to apply to Texas. We have had several partners come in praising the COL in Texas, the hours, etc., all in an effort to lure in more students

this isnt interesting. its just recruiting 101.

[nothingtosee]

Tag

Will lit be hit as well? Anyone have thoughts on the boutiques?

[Anonymous User]

At NRF (more of a lit-focused firm than transactional), lit is going strong. The o&g/corporate giants like V&E are going to be hit harder than some of the more lit-focused places, including boutiques. V&E's no-offer rate for past summer class was eye-popping. Beware.

Also we are starting to see smaller big firms struggle. Bracewell has been bleeding partners left and right since Giuliani left. Revenue at AK is down for 2015. Burleson is no more.

[Anonymous User]

Tag

Will lit be hit as well? Anyone have thoughts on the boutiques?

Litigation is slammed at most firms in Houston right now. Lots of busted contracts and fighting because of low energy prices. I would not worry if you were in litigation, might even be an increased work load at the moment.

re: summer associate classes, I would agree. I graduated top 10% from a T14, Law review, etc. Went Houston corporate because I had Texas ties, wanted to be able to buy a house before I was 35, etc. (the money was too good to pass up and Energy deals were as sophisticated as deals in NY). If I was doing it all again now - I would probably take the Cravath offer and wait to see what happens with oil. Lateral over if it improves, and stay away if it doesn't. Weird how two years can change things.

I will say this, Dallas does not seem to be hit as hard, and from what I have seen/heard its pretty easy to lateral to Dallas from a top TX shop. I don't know to what extent - but we will see. I am digging in until they tell me to leave (I am also very busy still).

[Anonymous User]

Where's the info on V&E's no offers from last summer?

[Anonymous User]

Where's the info on V&E's no offers from last summer?

V&E had an average offer rate last summer. The above statement is false. I heard some firms had low offer rates (I heard NRF slaughtered their class), but I can confirm BB/VE/AK had offer rates that are pretty usual for Houston (Texas offer rates are not usually 100% (though Latham/NY transplants prob are)). These rumors spread for some reason - kind of like the stealth layoff claims.

[Anonymous User]

Where's the info on V&E's no offers from last summer?

V&E had an average offer rate last summer. The above statement is false. I heard some firms had low offer rates (I heard NRF slaughtered their class), but I can confirm BB/VE/AK had offer rates that are pretty usual for Houston (Texas offer rates are not usually 100% (though Latham/NY transplants prob are)). These rumors spread for some reason - kind of like the stealth layoff claims.

BB has had a strong offer rate the past couple years (97%). VE Houston was 70% 2010-11, 80% 2012-13, 93% 2014, 85% 2015. Don't have the data for AK. So you can either say their offer wasn't abnormally low because normal is no offering 6+ SAs every year with 2014 being an outlier or you can say they're abnormally low every year. A generous reading would be they overhired based on the oil boom and had to cut back. Either way I wouldn't want to play Russian roulette as a summer with my career at a firm that only does O&G.

[eagle2a]

I'm a 1L at SMU, should I just go ahead and drop?

Eagle, stop looking for excuses to drop out.

haha, thanks!

[Anonymous User]

I'm sure this has been discussed to death on this board, but I thought I would just ask here since I'm in Texas.

First year corporate associate (mostly cap markets/M&A) at a smaller satellite office. My past three months have gone 170-120-80. My question is - is this generally normal for a corporate practice to be so slow for consecutive months - or should I start getting concerned? March has not started hot either.

[Anonymous User]

I'm sure this has been discussed to death on this board, but I thought I would just ask here since I'm in Texas.

First year corporate associate (mostly cap markets/M&A) at a smaller satellite office. My past three months have gone 170-120-80. My question is - is this generally normal for a corporate practice to be so slow for consecutive months - or should I start getting concerned? March has not started hot either.

This hours trajectory seems to be going around in Texas. I would say that sub-100 hour months are rare even in a volatile corporate practice, and yet many posters on TLS and outside are reporting these kinds of numbers in Texas. I think the market is soft and softening. Interested in others' opinions.

[Johann]

yea ive heard of partners with decent books that are dry right now.

vinson partner still unemployed 1 week later. maybe next week hell find something. just kidding, he has 16.5 years of useless experience now.

[Johann]

Malonson updated his LinkedIn!!!!

well sorta. hes still very much unemployed. but he updated his profile to include all the deals he has been a part of. LOL at all that free time he has on his hands when he's def not talking to other firms about bringing him on. talk about desperation.