2021 End of Year Bonuses Forum

[Anonymous User]

This is going to come after Thanksgiving now. They rarely announce later in the week and won’t announce next week—they want the publicity and people to be focused on it.

The last annual bonus raise was the Friday before Thanksgiving.

11/11/20 was a Wednesday.
11/7/19 was a Thursday.

I think today or tomorrow is possible but agree that its not so likely the week of Thanksgiving.

[Anonymous User]

This is going to come after Thanksgiving now. They rarely announce later in the week and won’t announce next week—they want the publicity and people to be focused on it.

The last annual bonus raise was the Friday before Thanksgiving.

11/11/20 was a Wednesday.
11/7/19 was a Thursday.

I think today or tomorrow is possible but agree that its not so likely the week of Thanksgiving.

ATL has a link of all bonus announcement dates going back to 2006 (it's been linked several times in this discussion already): https://abovethelaw.com/2021/10/biglaw- ... billables/

The most you can say about it is that the timing of the announcement traditionally was around Thanksgiving although it's gone earlier the past two years. There's not much else you can infer from it -- there are examples where it's been announced super early, examples where it's been announced super late, examples where it's been announced the week of Thanksgiving, examples where it's been announced on a Monday, on a Friday, on a Wednesday, etc.

But like I said, the only real inference I draw from it is that the best estimate for when the announcement will happen is 1 week +/- Thanksgiving, which captures a little more than half (8/15) of the last fifteen years worth of announcement dates. That means for this year 11/18 - 12/2. That also means I'm not going to drive myself nuts about this every day like some people ITT are doing because there's too much variability. I guess the one other thing I'd say is I'd be surprised if we don't have a bonus announcement by or before 12/2, as that's only happened twice in the past fifteen years (2015 and then way back in 2006).

[Anonymous User]

This is going to come after Thanksgiving now. They rarely announce later in the week and won’t announce next week—they want the publicity and people to be focused on it.

The last annual bonus raise was the Friday before Thanksgiving.

11/11/20 was a Wednesday.
11/7/19 was a Thursday.

I think today or tomorrow is possible but agree that its not so likely the week of Thanksgiving.

There's actually precedent for Monday of Thanksgiving week (2010 and 2018). Since 2006 the most common day by far is the Monday after Thanksgiving (2011, 2012, 2013, 2016 and 2017).

[Anonymous User]

This is going to come after Thanksgiving now. They rarely announce later in the week and won’t announce next week—they want the publicity and people to be focused on it.

The last annual bonus raise was the Friday before Thanksgiving.

11/11/20 was a Wednesday.
11/7/19 was a Thursday.

I think today or tomorrow is possible but agree that its not so likely the week of Thanksgiving.

ATL has a link of all bonus announcement dates going back to 2006 (it's been linked several times in this discussion already): https://abovethelaw.com/2021/10/biglaw- ... billables/

The most you can say about it is that the timing of the announcement traditionally was around Thanksgiving although it's gone earlier the past two years. There's not much else you can infer from it -- there are examples where it's been announced super early, examples where it's been announced super late, examples where it's been announced the week of Thanksgiving, examples where it's been announced on a Monday, on a Friday, on a Wednesday, etc.

But like I said, the only real inference I draw from it is that the best estimate for when the announcement will happen is 1 week +/- Thanksgiving, which captures a little more than half (8/15) of the last fifteen years worth of announcement dates. That means for this year 11/18 - 12/2. That also means I'm not going to drive myself nuts about this every day like some people ITT are doing because there's too much variability. I guess the one other thing I'd say is I'd be surprised if we don't have a bonus announcement by or before 12/2, as that's only happened twice in the past fifteen years (2015 and then way back in 2006).

Agreed - I don't even know why people care so much. There's only 2 options this year, it stays the same or it goes up. You already know the minimum YE bonus you're getting based on your class year and you can only be pleasantly surprised. Timing really doesn't matter - go enjoy the holidays.

[Anonymous User]

There's actually precedent for Monday of Thanksgiving week (2010 and 2018). Since 2006 the most common day by far is the Monday after Thanksgiving (2011, 2012, 2013, 2016 and 2017).

For additional color:

Week before Thanksgiving:

Wednesday: 11/19/08
Friday: 11/21/14

Week of Thanksgiving:

Monday: 11/22/10, 11/19/18

First week after Thanksgiving:

Monday: 11/28/11, 11/26/12, 12/2/13, 11/28/16, 11/27/17

Second and third weeks after Thanksgiving:

Monday: 12/7/2015
Monday: 12/11/2006

If we speculate that partners won't delay beyond the week after Thanksgiving for retention reasons, it's about even odds between the next 6 days and the Monday after Thanksgiving.

[Anonymous User]

This is going to come after Thanksgiving now. They rarely announce later in the week and won’t announce next week—they want the publicity and people to be focused on it.

The last annual bonus raise was the Friday before Thanksgiving.

11/11/20 was a Wednesday.
11/7/19 was a Thursday.

I think today or tomorrow is possible but agree that its not so likely the week of Thanksgiving.

ATL has a link of all bonus announcement dates going back to 2006 (it's been linked several times in this discussion already): https://abovethelaw.com/2021/10/biglaw- ... billables/

The most you can say about it is that the timing of the announcement traditionally was around Thanksgiving although it's gone earlier the past two years. There's not much else you can infer from it -- there are examples where it's been announced super early, examples where it's been announced super late, examples where it's been announced the week of Thanksgiving, examples where it's been announced on a Monday, on a Friday, on a Wednesday, etc.

But like I said, the only real inference I draw from it is that the best estimate for when the announcement will happen is 1 week +/- Thanksgiving, which captures a little more than half (8/15) of the last fifteen years worth of announcement dates. That means for this year 11/18 - 12/2. That also means I'm not going to drive myself nuts about this every day like some people ITT are doing because there's too much variability. I guess the one other thing I'd say is I'd be surprised if we don't have a bonus announcement by or before 12/2, as that's only happened twice in the past fifteen years (2015 and then way back in 2006).

Agreed - I don't even know why people care so much. There's only 2 options this year, it stays the same or it goes up. You already know the minimum YE bonus you're getting based on your class year and you can only be pleasantly surprised. Timing really doesn't matter - go enjoy the holidays.

I don't think anyone is actually super anxious-just fun to speculate!

[Anonymous User]

Agreed - I don't even know why people care so much. There's only 2 options this year, it stays the same or it goes up. You already know the minimum YE bonus you're getting based on your class year and you can only be pleasantly surprised. Timing really doesn't matter - go enjoy the holidays.

I think if we were placing bets, the over/under would be a 35% increase. Bonuses matching last year would not go over well.

[Anonymous User]

Agreed - I don't even know why people care so much. There's only 2 options this year, it stays the same or it goes up. You already know the minimum YE bonus you're getting based on your class year and you can only be pleasantly surprised. Timing really doesn't matter - go enjoy the holidays.

I think if we were placing bets, the over/under would be a 35% increase. Bonuses matching last year would not go over well.

If I'm betting, a few predictions:

• Year-end bonuses will be at least as high as last year's year-end + 2021's spring and fall special bonuses (e.g., 15k + 12k for 2020; 100k + 64k for 2014+). In other words, higher than the aggregate amount anyone got paid by the time year-end rolled around last year (whether your lower special bonus was paid fall 2020 or as a special bonus at year-end last year), and maybe even higher than last year's year-end + this year's in-year special bonuses.

• Not all of the above will be rolled into a single year-end column/scale. Could be that there's a column for year-end and separate column for special so as to avoid precedent setting for next year (and to avoid giving big $$s to everyone, including people in class years/groups that may have been slower).

• The two columns (year-end and special) will look different / there won't be a uniform standard outside the V20 (or perhaps V30 or V50). Going to be a divergence of standards, similar to how there wasn't really a uniform market for fall COVID bonuses in 2020. I think this is likely given the widely divergent lateral signing bonuses out there. Willkie (V36) has offered huge signing bonuses that I can't imagine Cooley (V24) or WilmerHale (V19) is matching. Signing bonus $$ is all over the place within the V50.

• Some form of third column / third category of additional "retention" bonuses will be communicated as well. Think this could be all over the place too. Maybe some firms have a $$ scale, others will communicate individualized ad hoc bonuses to people.

• Bottom line is I think this will be quite the rodeo.

[Anonymous User]

Agreed - I don't even know why people care so much. There's only 2 options this year, it stays the same or it goes up. You already know the minimum YE bonus you're getting based on your class year and you can only be pleasantly surprised. Timing really doesn't matter - go enjoy the holidays.

I think if we were placing bets, the over/under would be a 35% increase. Bonuses matching last year would not go over well.

I'll take 50%

[Anonymous User]

This is going to come after Thanksgiving now. They rarely announce later in the week and won’t announce next week—they want the publicity and people to be focused on it.

The last annual bonus raise was the Friday before Thanksgiving.

11/11/20 was a Wednesday.
11/7/19 was a Thursday.

I think today or tomorrow is possible but agree that its not so likely the week of Thanksgiving.

ATL has a link of all bonus announcement dates going back to 2006 (it's been linked several times in this discussion already): https://abovethelaw.com/2021/10/biglaw- ... billables/

The most you can say about it is that the timing of the announcement traditionally was around Thanksgiving although it's gone earlier the past two years. There's not much else you can infer from it -- there are examples where it's been announced super early, examples where it's been announced super late, examples where it's been announced the week of Thanksgiving, examples where it's been announced on a Monday, on a Friday, on a Wednesday, etc.

But like I said, the only real inference I draw from it is that the best estimate for when the announcement will happen is 1 week +/- Thanksgiving, which captures a little more than half (8/15) of the last fifteen years worth of announcement dates. That means for this year 11/18 - 12/2. That also means I'm not going to drive myself nuts about this every day like some people ITT are doing because there's too much variability. I guess the one other thing I'd say is I'd be surprised if we don't have a bonus announcement by or before 12/2, as that's only happened twice in the past fifteen years (2015 and then way back in 2006).

Agreed - I don't even know why people care so much. There's only 2 options this year, it stays the same or it goes up. You already know the minimum YE bonus you're getting based on your class year and you can only be pleasantly surprised. Timing really doesn't matter - go enjoy the holidays.

I don't think anyone is actually super anxious-just fun to speculate!

True. Anxiety is not the issue. We want to know if we will be compensated more commensurate to the value we bring to our firms. Of the two options (i.e., stay the same or go up), the first would be insulting. Implicit in the “stay the same, now go enjoy your holiday” view is that we should be satisfied with an outdated EOY scale despite record earnings that are based on crushing hours and complete erosion of WLB. Add that these dynamics are now nearing to two-year mark and no one except a first year or a boomer partner would be satisfied with the same EOY scale. Your patronizing “go play” attitude reflects an indifference that many of my now-departed colleagues and myself do not share. The ONLY option that makes sense is a significant increase. The longer they string us on, the more disgruntled we’ll become. And this doesn’t even start to address how inflation is killing purchasing power.

[Anonymous User]

I agree we're all being nutty about this but oh well, as is tradition. Here's another way to approach this: We're on an anonymous message board; could someone from one of the traditional first-movers like DPW, Milbank, or Cravath step up and try to give us some inside scoop about what's going on? There have to be at least some rumors going on in these firms among the associates knowing that they're the ones who get the ball rolling.

[Anonymous User]

I agree we're all being nutty about this but oh well, as is tradition. Here's another way to approach this: We're on an anonymous message board; could someone from one of the traditional first-movers like DPW, Milbank, or Cravath step up and try to give us some inside scoop about what's going on? There have to be at least some rumors going on in these firms among the associates knowing that they're the ones who get the ball rolling.

Harder to hear rumors from home, but I have a friend who is a partner in another firm who said he thinks bonuses will increase.

[Anonymous User]

One more time...

WHERE. IS. MY. BONUS?!?!?!?!

I predict 50% increase YOY but in the form of a "special" year end bonus. Maybe less at the very junior level but would not be surprised if 7th year + gets $150K all in at year end. They are bleeding out the fastest and are hardest to replace.

[Anonymous User]

One more time...

WHERE. IS. MY. BONUS?!?!?!?!

I predict 50% increase YOY but in the form of a "special" year end bonus. Maybe less at the very junior level but would not be surprised if 7th year + gets $150K all in at year end. They are bleeding out the fastest and are hardest to replace.

Won't opine on that specific number but this structure overall makes sense to me — same with the "If I'm betting, a few predictions..." post above.

Partners will (begrudgingly) concede that they need to pay more this year, but they do not want to set a precedent for high EOY bonuses in future years. So paying out this year in two linked bonuses gives them the future discretion to walk it back in 2022 and beyond.

[Anonymous User]

As long as we are predicting, count me in for a modest EOY scale increase along with some special component. Perhaps the special component is a firm saying "Look, your year end bonus is [Old scale + X] and here is a special amount on top of that at the same time," perhaps it is "Here's the new EOY scale, and more special bonus comp is coming at the end of March/April," perhaps both.

[Anonymous User]

With how much money firms are raking in, and with inflation being crazy, I'd be a little disappointed if the actual end-of-year scale does not go up a bit.

I agree there will probably be either special bonuses now or announced as coming in the spring.

[Anonymous User]

At V25, spoke to a fairly senior partner and he said I will see more bonus this year. I dont think he had discretionary bonus for high billers in mind. Not clear how they will earmark the additional bonus. The adjectives he used leads me to believe it will be at least a 50% increase to the scale. We're not a market mover but I'm sure we will match if market decides to double.

[Anonymous User]

Gut feeling is these things get announced December 1

[LawMaster97]

Today is the day. Hope springs eternal.

[Anonymous User]

Today is the day. Hope springs eternal.

I believe

[Anonymous User]

I've been wrong (many times) before but I have a feeling that it's either today or the week after Thanksgiving, not in between.

[Anonymous User]

I've been wrong (many times) before but I have a feeling that it's either today or the week after Thanksgiving, not in between.

It's either today, tomorrow, Monday or the following Monday.

[Bosque]

Today is the day. Hope springs eternal.

I believe

On my way into the office, a flock of pidgeons was flushed into the air, and they formed a dollar sign in the sky.

The auguries are good.

[screwtapeletters]

Today is the day. Hope springs eternal.

I believe

On my way into the office, a flock of pidgeons was flushed into the air, and they formed a dollar sign in the sky.

The auguries are good.

LOL

I already billed 5 hours at this point of the day, but you just made my day.

[Anonymous User]

Today is the day. Hope springs eternal.

I believe

On my way into the office, a flock of pidgeons was flushed into the air, and they formed a dollar sign in the sky.

The auguries are good.

I saw the same on my way in to work! Except one of the pigeons then shit on my jacket and I simultaneously made eye contact with a homeless guy who had pissed himself. What does it all mean?