2021 End of Year Bonuses Forum

[Anonymous User]

When was the first announcement last year?

[Anonymous User]

The lack of news is getting painful. Our firms have to be trolling us at this point.

More likely they're trolling each other.

Poor Above the Law-you know someone over there is waiting with baited breath to start their 50 or so posts on bonuses.

I am in no way endorsing this idea, just musing, but I wonder if ATL received a fake memo from one firm, it would prompt enough firms to act that they couldn't take it back, or does ATL actually get confirmation before publication?

Sort of related, someone tried that with a fake slide deck announcing a salary raise a few years ago. Didn’t work sadly.

https://abovethelaw.com/2015/10/ny-to-1 ... -salaries/

Well, it appears they did post before getting a response at least. Crazy they just throw that at the end too, ATL is such a joke but whateva, need some gossip space.

[Anonymous User]

When was the first announcement last year?

See:

First bonus announcement in the last two years:

2020 - November 11, Baker McKenzie
2019 - November 7, Milbank

So it could be any day now.

[Lesion of Doom]

I choose to believe that the later timing means that the firms expect bonuses to increase and don't want to announce until someone establishes the new line.

[Anonymous User]

Do we think there’s a crew of top brass at a handful of v15s who are actively discussing strategy on this amongst one another (maybe even coordinating/negotiating to some degree), or do we think it’s only discussed internally at each firm and it’s a big secret to the others until it’s literally revealed to the public?

I doubt it because this would be both illegal and ineffective. There are dozens of law firms that could legitimately set the market for associate comp. The biglaw industry is unusual in how fragmented it is, which is a pro-worker factor in compensation. If legal ethics/conflicts rules permitted massive consolidation along the lines of the Big Four, they would de facto collude to suppress wages - there are simply too many players in the biglaw game for a group to be able to do so here.

[Anonymous User]

The lack of news is getting painful. Our firms have to be trolling us at this point.

More likely they're trolling each other.

Poor Above the Law-you know someone over there is waiting with baited breath to start their 50 or so posts on bonuses.

I am in no way endorsing this idea, just musing, but I wonder if ATL received a fake memo from one firm, it would prompt enough firms to act that they couldn't take it back, or does ATL actually get confirmation before publication?

Sort of related, someone tried that with a fake slide deck announcing a salary raise a few years ago. Didn’t work sadly.

https://abovethelaw.com/2015/10/ny-to-1 ... -salaries/

Well, it appears they did post before getting a response at least. Crazy they just throw that at the end too, ATL is such a joke but whateva, need some gossip space.

Seems like someone has been following the forum: https://abovethelaw.com/2021/11/some-bi ... pensation/

[Anonymous User]

I choose to believe that the later timing means that the firms expect bonuses to increase and don't want to announce until someone establishes the new line.

To be clear: 2019 and 2020 announcements were exceptionally early. This week would be more typical based on recent history (and prior to 2014 I believe 1st week of December was the norm).

[Anonymous User]

Seems like someone has been following the forum: https://abovethelaw.com/2021/11/some-bi ... pensation/

Typical ATL BS. People have been predicting some kind of mass divergence in market comp -- meaning V20ish / high-profit firms break away from the rest of the pack -- ad nauseam for the last few years, including with each special bonus in 2020-2021 and with the 2021 salary raise. And then it never happens. What makes this time any different, unless you have good reason to believe that they're doubling or tripling the EOY bonus? (which...c'mon, that's not going to happen)

[Anonymous User]

I choose to believe that the later timing means that the firms expect bonuses to increase and don't want to announce until someone establishes the new line.

To be clear: 2019 and 2020 announcements were exceptionally early. This week would be more typical based on recent history (and prior to 2014 I believe 1st week of December was the norm).

The "tradition" was the Monday after Thanksgiving, which is when Cravath would go and set the market. Times have changed and someone is bound to go before then, and we are quickly running out of time to do so considering the upcoming holiday.

[screwtapeletters]

https://www.law.com/2021/11/15/capitali ... p=nltrplt1

[Anonymous User]

https://www.law.com/2021/11/15/capitali ... p=nltrplt1

They cut out the part that said "Despite the large increases in revenue, many firms are expected to only realize moderate increases in profit after tripling the scale for its associates' end-of-year bonuses"

[Anonymous User]

https://www.law.com/2021/11/15/capitali ... p=nltrplt1

Big firms continue to lead the pack, as revenue for the Am Law 50 firms that participated in the survey grew by 17% for the three quarters, compared with 10% for the rest of the Am Law 100 and the Second Hundred.

DOUBLE.THE.SCALE.

[Anonymous User]

An additional fact to consider while everyone sits on their hands, Wells Fargo is saying that for the first 3/4 of 2021, the revenue of AmLaw top 50 firms increased by 17% https://www.reuters.com/legal/legalindu ... 021-11-15/.

A 17% bump over last year's scale would look like this:

Class of 2021: $17,550 (pro rated)
Class of 2020: $17,550
Class of 2019: $29,250
Class of 2018: $58,500
Class of 2017: $76,050
Class of 2016: $93,600
Class of 2015: $105,300
Class of 2014 and later: $117,000

Revenue up 17% with overhead unchanged or even reduced (shrinking office spaces, no increase in hires commensurate with the increase in work/revenue) means net profits are up much more than 17%.

I don't think that's entirely true - with increased compensation costs (both in base pay raises + special bonuses), costs are arguably up this year. And for many firms, the office space cost is locked in with long-term leases, coupled with (possibly) increased IT costs, although theoretically those IT costs should have been baked in.

Our V20 firm announced in a town hall that expenses were flat vs. 2020…

Our V10 firm announced that expenses in 2020 were down against 2019 (significantly) and were only modestly up in 2021.

[Anonymous User]

This is going to come after Thanksgiving now. They rarely announce later in the week and won’t announce next week—they want the publicity and people to be focused on it.

[Anonymous User]

This is going to come after Thanksgiving now. They rarely announce later in the week and won’t announce next week—they want the publicity and people to be focused on it.

Who is people? I guarantee every associate will be focused on this as the family is cutting the turkey.

[Anonymous User]

This is going to come after Thanksgiving now. They rarely announce later in the week and won’t announce next week—they want the publicity and people to be focused on it.

The last annual bonus raise was the Friday before Thanksgiving.

11/11/20 was a Wednesday.
11/7/19 was a Thursday.

[lawdude31]

Another day wasted....

[ChairmanKaga]

I think we need to relax. DPW will announce in early December. Nobody will announce before then. That's my guess.

[Anonymous User]

Call me an eternal optimist but I subscribe to the theory that the longer we wait, the better the chance we are going to see a significant increase in the scale. Firms announce early when they're trying to control the message and build the market around a figure that they're anxious to see remain stable--they get it out there early and cross their fingers that that's where the market will stay. Baker being the first firm in 2020 to announce is a perfect example of this; they're not compensation leaders and they were just trying to control the convo. Conversely, if no one is rushing to release a scale it suggests to me that most of the V50 is going to do whatever they can to fall in line with whatever the leaders do; and the leaders are going to up the scale in a big way because of the combo of record profits + record attrition. I take this all as a good sign. I think we could see a 1.5x scale this year. It'll come from a firm like DPW or Milbank.

[clone22]

Call me an eternal optimist but I subscribe to the theory that the longer we wait, the better the chance we are going to see a significant increase in the scale. Firms announce early when they're trying to control the message and build the market around a figure that they're anxious to see remain stable--they get it out there early and cross their fingers that that's where the market will stay. Baker being the first firm in 2020 to announce is a perfect example of this; they're not compensation leaders and they were just trying to control the convo. Conversely, if no one is rushing to release a scale it suggests to me that most of the V50 is going to do whatever they can to fall in line with whatever the leaders do; and the leaders are going to up the scale in a big way because of the combo of record profits + record attrition. I take this all as a good sign. I think we could see a 1.5x scale this year. It'll come from a firm like DPW or Milbank.

You're an eternal optimist and I hope you are right.

Totally agreed that most of the V50's body language is that they will match whatever the "market" scale ends up being. Only question is whether "comp leaders" will feel any pressure to push the scales up, knowing full well that the rest of the market will follow suit within days if not hours. I, for one, hope they do, but I am also pretty sure that it's wishful thinking.

[Anonymous User]

Call me an eternal optimist but I subscribe to the theory that the longer we wait, the better the chance we are going to see a significant increase in the scale. Firms announce early when they're trying to control the message and build the market around a figure that they're anxious to see remain stable--they get it out there early and cross their fingers that that's where the market will stay. Baker being the first firm in 2020 to announce is a perfect example of this; they're not compensation leaders and they were just trying to control the convo. Conversely, if no one is rushing to release a scale it suggests to me that most of the V50 is going to do whatever they can to fall in line with whatever the leaders do; and the leaders are going to up the scale in a big way because of the combo of record profits + record attrition. I take this all as a good sign. I think we could see a 1.5x scale this year. It'll come from a firm like DPW or Milbank.

You're an eternal optimist and I hope you are right.

Totally agreed that most of the V50's body language is that they will match whatever the "market" scale ends up being. Only question is whether "comp leaders" will feel any pressure to push the scales up, knowing full well that the rest of the market will follow suit within days if not hours. I, for one, hope they do, but I am also pretty sure that it's wishful thinking.

What makes me think it's more than wishful thinking is the attrition element. There have been plenty of years with record-breaking profits and that doesn't always move the needle for comp. But we've already seen that profits + terrible attrition does and I see no reason why that wouldn't carry through to year-end comp. too.

[clone22]

Call me an eternal optimist but I subscribe to the theory that the longer we wait, the better the chance we are going to see a significant increase in the scale. Firms announce early when they're trying to control the message and build the market around a figure that they're anxious to see remain stable--they get it out there early and cross their fingers that that's where the market will stay. Baker being the first firm in 2020 to announce is a perfect example of this; they're not compensation leaders and they were just trying to control the convo. Conversely, if no one is rushing to release a scale it suggests to me that most of the V50 is going to do whatever they can to fall in line with whatever the leaders do; and the leaders are going to up the scale in a big way because of the combo of record profits + record attrition. I take this all as a good sign. I think we could see a 1.5x scale this year. It'll come from a firm like DPW or Milbank.

You're an eternal optimist and I hope you are right.

Totally agreed that most of the V50's body language is that they will match whatever the "market" scale ends up being. Only question is whether "comp leaders" will feel any pressure to push the scales up, knowing full well that the rest of the market will follow suit within days if not hours. I, for one, hope they do, but I am also pretty sure that it's wishful thinking.

What makes me think it's more than wishful thinking is the attrition element. There have been plenty of years with record-breaking profits and that doesn't always move the needle for comp. But we've already seen that profits + terrible attrition does and I see no reason why that wouldn't carry through to year-end comp. too.

I hear you on that, attrition has been pretty terrible, and honestly the only reason I have not jumped ship in-house recently is because of the gap in pay. In house gigs now pay as much or more than what senior associates made back when I started - if there hadn't been the constant increase in comp, going in-house would be an absolute no-brainer right now.

[Anonymous User]

First announcement will come Tuesday the 16th. You heard it here first.

Let’s see if this anon is legit…

womp womp

[Anonymous User]

From a class of 2016 perspective Mintz has upped the scale by 1.5x

[cornerstone]

From a class of 2016 perspective Mintz has upped the scale by 1.5x

We still don't know what they did with 2020 special bonuses, right? If they matched, I agree, but ATL reported that they did not. That means at least part of the 2021 bonuses could have been a true-up from 2020.