UVa OGI 2011 thread Forum

[oneforship]

Anyone think that a federal government default might affect firm hiring? I'm concerned we're about to live through another 2008. What are the odds?

Zero. Seriously.

QFfamouslastwords

[Doritos]

Anyone think that a federal government default might affect firm hiring? I'm concerned we're about to live through another 2008. What are the odds?

Its not going to be another 2008 but I know for a fact that firm partners are looking at this crisis with an eye on firm hiring. They are trying to gaze into their magic ball and figure out firm needs in 2013/2014 and things like a debt crisis are factors that go into the big soup of speculation.

[StanleyF]

Anyone think that a federal government default might affect firm hiring? I'm concerned we're about to live through another 2008. What are the odds?

I'm worried about it. Seems the timing couldn't be worse from an OGI perspective. I'm crossing my fingers for a deal, but I'm getting less optimistic everyday.

[Anonymous User]

Firms make their selections about how many people they anticipate needing a couple years in advance, right? So wouldn't this affect '14-'15 more than '13?

[bgdddymtty]

Anyone think that a federal government default might affect firm hiring? I'm concerned we're about to live through another 2008. What are the odds?

Zero. Seriously.

QFfamouslastwords

Nice. Allow me to clarify (or, in the lexicon of our president, "let me be clear"). To paraphrase the vice president, the financial future of this country is a big freakin' deal. However, the question of whether we technically default on some of our debt for a few days is not. It would have short-term effects, sure. But it means nothing in the grand scheme of things. We wouldn't be defaulting (now) because we weren't able to pay our debt; instead, it would be evidence of a concerted effort to ensure that we never get to that point.

Besides, it's not necessarily the case that if we hit the current debt ceiling, we would necessarily default on our debt. A far more likely scenario is the one that the president has been scaremongering aboutforeshadowing, in which budget allotments to various federal departments would be cut/delayed.

Furthermore, even if we were to have a short-term default, U.S. Treasury debt would still be the world's go-to place for risk-free investment. Why? Well, where else are people going to go? The Yuan? The Euro? Some sort of corporate debt? There's nothing out there less risky than our bonds.

This is not to say, of course, that no firms are going to overreact. Lawyers aren't exactly well-known for their acumen in business, economics, finance, etc. Any panic, though, would be short-lived once the small plume of dust settled and everyone realized the sky did not fall.

[barry]

it seems like they're close to a deal anyway

[bgdddymtty]

it seems like they're close to a deal anyway

You would say that, Barry. Or should I say, Barack?

[$$$$$$]

Furthermore, even if we were to have a short-term default, U.S. Treasury debt would still be the world's go-to place for risk-free investment. Why? Well, where else are people going to go? The Yuan? The Euro? Some sort of corporate debt? There's nothing out there less risky than our bonds.

Coca Cola is less risky, and will become the new risk free rate in the capm model

[uvahooo]

1 DAYYYYYY

[oneforship]

1 DAYYYYYY

[Morgan12Oak]

Law firm hiring is extremely elastic. It is speculative and hard to gauge what law firms will do in light of the economic uncertainty. There's a chance they may look past and ignore it for most likely what it is, a political game of chicken. But, there is also a chance they may see the doom and gloom side of it and buy into the hype. On the other hand, the hype really might have a case here. Crises of confidence have the power to fulfill themselves. Even the fall of some of the banks can be attributed to more than toxic debt, but just a souring of confidence driving rates up. If rates on T-bonds do increase, where does the money go? I'm not sure, gold? Commodities? It's tough to see where it would.

Law firms might look past it all, but it wouldn't be out of the ordinary for them to have some shock and be risk-adverse. Everything can be seen both ways. Take a look at the recent Wall-Street layoffs... part because of fixed income regulation, part because of an uncertain economy.

[desertlaw]

I love how everyone's comments to the debt crisis stuff read exactly like exam answers. Well it could be X because of A,B,C. BUT it could also be Y because of D, E, F. Good job TLS.

[StanleyF]

So OCS just announced an exciting sequel to OGI — August OGI Part II (The Rebiddening). Since these bids are in addition to the 50 bids we already made, I can't see any downside to bidding on firms in Part II — best case, they pre-select you and you can accept or reject; worst case, they reject you. Does anyone have a different take?

[Anonymous User]

Not to be negative or scare anyone. But has anyone been preparing a plan in case they strike out on a firm job? What steps are you taking?

[5ky]

So OCS just announced an exciting sequel to OGI — August OGI Part II (The Rebiddening). Since these bids are in addition to the 50 bids we already made, I can't see any downside to bidding on firms in Part II — best case, they pre-select you and you can accept or reject; worst case, they reject you. Does anyone have a different take?

This is accurate. There's no real reason why Bracewell won't end up with ~300 bids on them, should be good times.

[bgdddymtty]

So OCS just announced an exciting sequel to OGI — August OGI Part II (The Rebiddening). Since these bids are in addition to the 50 bids we already made, I can't see any downside to bidding on firms in Part II — best case, they pre-select you and you can accept or reject; worst case, they reject you. Does anyone have a different take?

This is accurate. There's no real reason why Bracewell won't end up with ~300 bids on them, should be good times.

I do see a (very slight) downside. If you don't really have any interest in B&G DC, you run the risk that you'll end up getting preselected for that office, accept the interview, and then (assuming you were in the position to end up with 20 total interviews) lose out on a lottery selection for one firm that you're actually interested in. Like I said, it's a very slight downside, but it's worth considering.

A more realistic scenario is that you already bid on another office of B&G (or got an interview with them at TIP), and you don't want to confuse them about your preferences by bidding another office. There is a somewhat significant downside there.

[badwithpseudonyms]

Not to be negative or scare anyone. But has anyone been preparing a plan in case they strike out on a firm job? What steps are you taking?

EDIT: It's funny 'cause it's true.

[5ky]

So OCS just announced an exciting sequel to OGI — August OGI Part II (The Rebiddening). Since these bids are in addition to the 50 bids we already made, I can't see any downside to bidding on firms in Part II — best case, they pre-select you and you can accept or reject; worst case, they reject you. Does anyone have a different take?

This is accurate. There's no real reason why Bracewell won't end up with ~300 bids on them, should be good times.

I do see a (very slight) downside. If you don't really have any interest in B&G DC, you run the risk that you'll end up getting preselected for that office, accept the interview, and then (assuming you were in the position to end up with 20 total interviews) lose out on a lottery selection for one firm that you're actually interested in. Like I said, it's a very slight downside, but it's worth considering.

A more realistic scenario is that you already bid on another office of B&G (or got an interview with them at TIP), and you don't want to confuse them about your preferences by bidding another office. There is a somewhat significant downside there.

The latter part, yeah, that's true. I forgot they were big in Texas.

I don't think the first situation you bring up is a problem, it makes no sense. How does somebody run the risk of accepting an interview with a firm that they don't want? If you get pre-selected and you're interested, accept it. If you get pre-selected and you aren't interested (and you're over the 20), don't. Pretty simple.

[denimchickn]

Do we actually find out about preselects at 10 AM tomorrow or is it before that?

I seem to recall seeing that at another school they find out at midnight and can't accept interviews until the next morning...

[Morgan12Oak]

I believe bigddymtty was talking about the scenario in which you have 17 preselects including the BG in DC. Then what do you do? The situation would be such that it is possible that you could decline the preselect at BG and then be left with 16 and get <4 lottery interviews or it could be such that you accept the preselect at BG and end up with 17 preselects eliminating the possibility entirely of getting 4 or more lottery interviews (all at which are firms that you were more interested in than BG).

[oneforship]

I believe bigddymtty was talking about the scenario in which you have 17 preselects including the BG in DC. Then what do you do? The situation would be such that it is possible that you could decline the preselect at BG and then be left with 16 and get <4 lottery interviews or it could be such that you accept the preselect at BG and end up with 17 preselects eliminating the possibility entirely of getting 4 or more lottery interviews (all at which are firms that you were more interested in than BG).

Declining preselects in the hopes of getting particular lottery picks seems to me a losing strategy, on the whole.

[Morgan12Oak]

Definitely agree, but there will be tons of people who end up doing it. I probably wouldn't hesitate to decline one or two if I had 20 and a few of my top 5 or 10 didn't preselect me. Depends how risky you are I guess.

[showNprove]

If some of your top 10 bids selected you as an alternate, rejecting a couple pre-selects hoping to get them in the lottery is a good idea. I wouldn't reject a pre-select for a non-alternate lottery firm, though.

[desertlaw]

Donovan has made his "bird in the hand" reference at least 3 times in e-mails or OGI stuff. Does anyone want to explain what that phrase actually means?


Does it mean this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWj6fh-IJ5Q

[thesealocust]

Not to be negative or scare anyone. But has anyone been preparing a plan in case they strike out on a firm job? What steps are you taking?

Since rouhgly a third to a half of the class is likely to be in this position, it's more than just a scary or negative thing, it's reality. Reality hurts less when you prepare for it.

If you're not comfortably top third with a comfortably job-obtaining background (i.e. not 23 with a BA in drinking) then you should be mailing other firms right now and trying to set up interviews with firms not coming to OGI. That doesn't mean you need to launch 300 apps tomorrow, but it does mean you need to be assuming OGI is just a chance at a job and not /the/ place you'll get your job.

Donovan has made his "bird in the hand" reference at least 3 times in e-mails or OGI stuff. Does anyone want to explain what that phrase actually means?


Does it mean this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWj6fh-IJ5Q

Context?