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Anonymous User wrote: ↑Thu Aug 25, 2022 5:07 pm
To the person who said minorities and women are treated worse at Latham than other V10s, I'm legitimately shocked. They've had DEI as a part of their platform long before it was trendy, have had balanced associate classes forever, and I have a hard time imagining anyone has put more resources and effort into DEI, than Latham. That's not to say it doesn't have lots of room for improvement, but hard to imagine minorities and women being treated better at the average V10.
Also, I vote for Latham as well. But I generally vote for several non-V10 firms over the V10. V10 is not great for culture.
Honestly if we're including V10-adjacent firms, Cleary and Debevoise are the best when it comes to culture.
Deb lockstep will prevent it from achieving the growth / momentum needed to reach V10 (I.e. the KE model) but getting rid of the lockstep will result in serious damage to its culture. Cleary might be in an irreversible decline and could become Shearman & Sterling in 10 years.
Don't think either should be relevant when discussing V10. TBH Milbank / White & Case/Sidley might be better candidates because they actually have a shot joining the V10 with their respective firm leaderships clearly focused on this goal.
A bit off-topic, but very curious to hear your thoughts on how the other V10s will be faring in 10-15 years. I'm guessing prospects hinge a lot on M&A, but with PE's epic run, it'll be interesting to see if firms that have been able to thrive without funds continue to do so (e.g., S&C/CSM).
As for Debevoise specifically, they seem to have had a couple of years of
very robust growth, no?
I think the above poster gave a very astute summary of the perfect storm Cleary is facing so not going to rehash.
Generally, you see significant consolidation at the UMM/MF/Megacorp level of deal making because there has been significant consolidation at the top of corporate America and service providers (ib/law firms/consultants etc.) need to consolidate to match the expanded scope and needs of their clients. If you look at IB market shares now vs. 2008, GS/MS/JPM have captured an additional >10% of the wallet in under 15 years. At this level transactions have also become a lot more global and if you don't have the international network of Skadden/KE/DPW/Latham it is harder to keep up.
Looking at Deb specifically, it has very strong regulatory and litigation practices + MM funds. None of these are as profitable and naturally lead to slightly lower PPP (less prone to be a growth focus for the likes of KE/Latham, hence less encroachment). Moreover, this tier of the market is much more dispersed and regional (less consolidation). Their competitive position looks safe for now.
Of the current V10s, STB is probably the most vulnerable. Its bread and butter is megacap PE which unfortunately is also THE practice area that made KE. From my experience KE really is going all out for the BX/KKR accounts and STB is just bleeding market share to them. STB simply cannot sustain its position without significant megafund PE works and I feel they are doomed against KE in the long run.
Ahh, interesting. You don't think there's enough work to go around for both KE and STB? I would be more concerned with Cravath or S&C - their reliance on basically only doing "bet-the-company" pubco work seems to be more vulnerable as firms like Skadden/KE/DPW/Latham dip into that work, no?
That's fair and I agree Cravath and S&C's business model is more anachronistic than STB. But I don't see a hyper growth firm focused on top-tier pubco M&As the way KE is going after PE. There is enough work to go around for KE and STB but that wouldn't stop a firm like KE from continuing to encroach on STB's territory. If you look at Blackstone reps, STB used to handle a substantial majority less than 10 years ago but I feel I see KE and STB representing BX fairly evenly as of late (with the edge going to KE I dare say). STB's market share loss is tangible in my experience and they have so far failed to keep KE at bay. Although to be fair to STB PE is KE's strongest practice and they have done admirably in protecting their wallet against ruthless competition.
Latham on the other hand is generally growing its transactional market share at a (very) slightly lower tier (vs. what S&C and Cravath traditionally target). This strategy seems to work well given their recent successes (and I would argue that Latham has a substantial scale / growth advantage over Weil, Cleary, Milbank and Deb etc. that traditionally fill this segment of the market). Cravath and S&C are probably tougher to crack - thus smart for Latham to avoid full-on direct competition with those guys. If Skadden returns to its growth trajectory Pre-08 then I would be much more worried about CSM and S&C but for now there is no meaningful direct competitor on the horizon. Nevertheless, I would argue that Skadden is the firm that broke CSM and made them just another V5. Pre-Skadden Cravath was definitely top 2 in corporate works and peer to WLRK.
There are a variety of ways to measure firm strength. For past success you can look at:
Financial (Profits per partner, revenue per lawyer, profits per lawyer), market performance (league tables for CapM and M&A), and breadth of competence (Chambers and a few others) are most telling, but reputation (Vault) and selectivity (GPAs and schools) offer some lagging info as well.
For future success you can look at:
Stability of firm clients with high rates and lots of work (banks and PE), strategic cornering of a legal market, average age of partners (especially with client relationships), ability to place GCs in clients with the most and highest billing work (usually PE and Banks), market trends (although this is based on past data... but, for example, in general people can see that PE is growing over time), regulatory trends that shape the markets (political winds etc).
For financial success, over the last twenty years the big movers in increased RPL have been Kirkland, Ropes, Cooley, Paul H., and maybe one or two others. Wachtell and Sullcrom have a lock on 1 and 2 for RPL; STB, Skadden, Milbank, PW, and Debevoise have all held steady in the top 10 or so; Latham and Weil steady in the top 15 or so; DPW and Cravath used to be consistent top 5 but both dropped out of the top 10 over the last 10 years (excepting the last two years); and Cleary, A&P, and Shearman have been in steep decline. [This is all assuming that we can trust law firms to give accurate unaudited RPL reports].
Banking relationships used to dominate, but as a poster above noted, there has been large consolidation and that has either helped or hurt firms (see Shearman). At the same time, PE (which is seemingly taking on more and more of a banking role) is a cash cow for law firms due to the increasing size of the private market versus public market.
Firms that have tight PE relationships (for example, STB has recently placed partners in the KKR and BX CG roles, Apollo and PW grow with each other) have set themselves up for the future, assuming PE continues to be a cash cow. IMO, despite the hate PE gets, firms that can do both big PE and public M&A (STB, Wachtell, Kirkland, Latham, Gibson) are in a good spot.