Class of 2023 lucked out Forum

[Anonymous User]

Re the question about class of '24 - yeah I'm sorry to say that I think they're screwed. Class sizes way up, firms over hired '23. Even if (or especially if) firms keep all the 23s, they will overcorrect and plan for much smaller 24 class.

If firms tighten hiring, who will get cut first? Top of class T20s? Lower-in-class T14 kids? Bottom of HYS?

.

[Anonymous User]

Re the question about class of '24 - yeah I'm sorry to say that I think they're screwed. Class sizes way up, firms over hired '23. Even if (or especially if) firms keep all the 23s, they will overcorrect and plan for much smaller 24 class.

If firms tighten hiring, who will get cut first? Top of class T20s? Lower-in-class T14 kids? Bottom of HYS?

.

[Anonymous User]

Re the question about class of '24 - yeah I'm sorry to say that I think they're screwed. Class sizes way up, firms over hired '23. Even if (or especially if) firms keep all the 23s, they will overcorrect and plan for much smaller 24 class.

If firms tighten hiring, who will get cut first? Top of class T20s? Lower-in-class T14 kids? Bottom of HYS?

[Anonymous User]

Re the question about class of '24 - yeah I'm sorry to say that I think they're screwed. Class sizes way up, firms over hired '23. Even if (or especially if) firms keep all the 23s, they will overcorrect and plan for much smaller 24 class.

If firms tighten hiring, who will get cut first? Top of class T20s? Lower-in-class T14 kids? Bottom of HYS?

[JorgeMichael]

Re the question about class of '24 - yeah I'm sorry to say that I think they're screwed. Class sizes way up, firms over hired '23. Even if (or especially if) firms keep all the 23s, they will overcorrect and plan for much smaller 24 class.

If firms tighten hiring, who will get cut first? Top of class T20s? Lower-in-class T14 kids? Bottom of HYS?

This is a joke right? You think your alma mater will save you if revenues sharply drop? HOURS will be the only thing that can potentially save you. Doesn't matter if you went to Harvard or WUSTL, if you aren't billing and we get another crash (spoiler alert, we're in the midst of one right now) good luck.

[Anonymous User]

Re the question about class of '24 - yeah I'm sorry to say that I think they're screwed. Class sizes way up, firms over hired '23. Even if (or especially if) firms keep all the 23s, they will overcorrect and plan for much smaller 24 class.

If firms tighten hiring, who will get cut first? Top of class T20s? Lower-in-class T14 kids? Bottom of HYS?

This is a joke right? You think your alma mater will save you if revenues sharply drop? HOURS will be the only thing that can potentially save you. Doesn't matter if you went to Harvard or WUSTL, if you aren't billing and we get another crash (spoiler alert, we're in the midst of one right now) good luck.

Class of '23 here. I just want a chance. I understand that I'll have to bill a lot--fine--but at this point I'm worried I won't even get offered and it's terrifying.

[ksm6969]

Re the question about class of '24 - yeah I'm sorry to say that I think they're screwed. Class sizes way up, firms over hired '23. Even if (or especially if) firms keep all the 23s, they will overcorrect and plan for much smaller 24 class.

If firms tighten hiring, who will get cut first? Top of class T20s? Lower-in-class T14 kids? Bottom of HYS?

This is a joke right? You think your alma mater will save you if revenues sharply drop? HOURS will be the only thing that can potentially save you. Doesn't matter if you went to Harvard or WUSTL, if you aren't billing and we get another crash (spoiler alert, we're in the midst of one right now) good luck.

The question is about summer associate hiring, and where firms will cut if class sizes decrease.

[Res Ipsa Loquitter]

Re the question about class of '24 - yeah I'm sorry to say that I think they're screwed. Class sizes way up, firms over hired '23. Even if (or especially if) firms keep all the 23s, they will overcorrect and plan for much smaller 24 class.

If firms tighten hiring, who will get cut first? Top of class T20s? Lower-in-class T14 kids? Bottom of HYS?

This is a joke right? You think your alma mater will save you if revenues sharply drop? HOURS will be the only thing that can potentially save you. Doesn't matter if you went to Harvard or WUSTL, if you aren't billing and we get another crash (spoiler alert, we're in the midst of one right now) good luck.

The question is about summer associate hiring, and where firms will cut if class sizes decrease.

Right, the idea is that in an information vacuum they might just decide based on school, GPA, personality, and demographic info, much like OCI itself. In the longer term hours and performance reviews would matter, but if people are being cut in super short term then matters less.

[enibs]

Okay, so I’m the anon OP and no, it wasn’t a troll post. I’m old enough to remember the last major U.S. economic downturn in 2008-2009 and the impact it had on law school classes 2010 and 2011. Not predicting the same level of implosion we experienced then, but clearly we’ve headed into a downturn, which will inevitably affect hiring over the next two years. Class of 2023 was the last class to be hired in a bull market. Even in the 2008-2009 implosion, firms were very reluctant to no-offer their summers or fire their first years. So far as I’m aware, Latham was the only firm to dump first years and they were roundly criticized for it. So unless the current downturn becomes much worse, I think the 2022 summer associates (i.e., class of 2023) will get offers and will be able to weather the downturn so long as it doesn’t last more than a year or two. But firms will scale back their hiring for the 2023 summer class, barring a miraculous recovery, which will leave the class of 2024 in rough shape.

[Anonymous User]

If it's a repeat of 2008 then they'll cut based on practice group. I know someone who survived the great lathaming by convincingly getting into bankruptcy.

[Barry grandpapy]

Okay, so I’m the anon OP and no, it wasn’t a troll post. I’m old enough to remember the last major U.S. economic downturn in 2008-2009 and the impact it had on law school classes 2010 and 2011. Not predicting the same level of implosion we experienced then, but clearly we’ve headed into a downturn, which will inevitably affect hiring over the next two years. Class of 2023 was the last class to be hired in a bull market. Even in the 2008-2009 implosion, firms were very reluctant to no-offer their summers or fire their first years. So far as I’m aware, Latham was the only firm to dump first years and they were roundly criticized for it. So unless the current downturn becomes much worse, I think the 2022 summer associates (i.e., class of 2023) will get offers and will be able to weather the downturn so long as it doesn’t last more than a year or two. But firms will scale back their hiring for the 2023 summer class, barring a miraculous recovery, which will leave the class of 2024 in rough shape.

I'm the OP anon derailer. Apologies for mistaking this as a serious thread. Hope you find your answers.

[Anonymous User]

If it's a repeat of 2008 then they'll cut based on practice group. I know someone who survived the great lathaming by convincingly getting into bankruptcy.

How does a '23 SA slotted for lit protect themself?

[Anonymous User]

If it's a repeat of 2008 then they'll cut based on practice group. I know someone who survived the great lathaming by convincingly getting into bankruptcy.

How does a '23 SA slotted for lit protect themself?

Lit actually didn't do as bad as corp in the recession. But if you can hang out with the bk ppl and make it generally known that you're happy to help with legal research and stuff, should help.

[Anonymous User]

.

[Anonymous User]

Re the question about class of '24 - yeah I'm sorry to say that I think they're screwed. Class sizes way up, firms over hired '23. Even if (or especially if) firms keep all the 23s, they will overcorrect and plan for much smaller 24 class.

If firms tighten hiring, who will get cut first? Top of class T20s? Lower-in-class T14 kids? Bottom of HYS?

This is a joke right? You think your alma mater will save you if revenues sharply drop? HOURS will be the only thing that can potentially save you. Doesn't matter if you went to Harvard or WUSTL, if you aren't billing and we get another crash (spoiler alert, we're in the midst of one right now) good luck.

The question is about summer associate hiring, and where firms will cut if class sizes decrease.

Yeah exactly. I guess a rephrase would be who will feel the OCI pinch?

[Anonymous User]

Re the question about class of '24 - yeah I'm sorry to say that I think they're screwed. Class sizes way up, firms over hired '23. Even if (or especially if) firms keep all the 23s, they will overcorrect and plan for much smaller 24 class.

If firms tighten hiring, who will get cut first? Top of class T20s? Lower-in-class T14 kids? Bottom of HYS?

YSC*

[Anonymous User]

Re the question about class of '24 - yeah I'm sorry to say that I think they're screwed. Class sizes way up, firms over hired '23. Even if (or especially if) firms keep all the 23s, they will overcorrect and plan for much smaller 24 class.

If firms tighten hiring, who will get cut first? Top of class T20s? Lower-in-class T14 kids? Bottom of HYS?

why would you assume bottom of HYS? If anything they are supposed to be recession proof no?

YS might be. Bottom at H strike out every year even during normal times.

[Anonymous User]

If firms slash summer classes, then all of the above. In 2011, biglaw rates at lower T14s was in the 30-50%, and at T20s even lower. Someone on reddit put together a chart. https://www.reddit.com/r/LawSchool/comm ... on_looked/

[Anonymous User]

.

[Anonymous User]

Re the question about class of '24 - yeah I'm sorry to say that I think they're screwed. Class sizes way up, firms over hired '23. Even if (or especially if) firms keep all the 23s, they will overcorrect and plan for much smaller 24 class.

If firms tighten hiring, who will get cut first? Top of class T20s? Lower-in-class T14 kids? Bottom of HYS?

YSC*

Chi is absolutely not going to do better than HLS in biglaw hiring during a downturn.

[Anonymous User]

Re the question about class of '24 - yeah I'm sorry to say that I think they're screwed. Class sizes way up, firms over hired '23. Even if (or especially if) firms keep all the 23s, they will overcorrect and plan for much smaller 24 class.

If firms tighten hiring, who will get cut first? Top of class T20s? Lower-in-class T14 kids? Bottom of HYS?

why would you assume bottom of HYS? If anything they are supposed to be recession proof no?

YS might be. Bottom at H strike out every year even during normal times.

Counterexample: I was bottom of H and got a v20 firm.

[Sackboy]

Re the question about class of '24 - yeah I'm sorry to say that I think they're screwed. Class sizes way up, firms over hired '23. Even if (or especially if) firms keep all the 23s, they will overcorrect and plan for much smaller 24 class.

If firms tighten hiring, who will get cut first? Top of class T20s? Lower-in-class T14 kids? Bottom of HYS?

YSC*

Chi is absolutely not going to do better than HLS in biglaw hiring during a downturn.

Gotta be smart enough to not take the bait.

[Anonymous User]

Re the question about class of '24 - yeah I'm sorry to say that I think they're screwed. Class sizes way up, firms over hired '23. Even if (or especially if) firms keep all the 23s, they will overcorrect and plan for much smaller 24 class.

If firms tighten hiring, who will get cut first? Top of class T20s? Lower-in-class T14 kids? Bottom of HYS?

YSC*

Chi is absolutely not going to do better than HLS in biglaw hiring during a downturn.

Yup. Smaller markets get hit harder. Chicago firms are conservative hirers and quicker to shrink class size.

However, U of Cs recent clerkship power might help. It's easy to ride out a recession in a clerkship, and the hiring needs stay the same.

[Anonymous User]

Maybe a better question is which markets are more/less exposed in this downturn. Is TX O&G going to go down (seems unlikely)? SF/SV Tech (more likely)? NY Finance (Always a q)?

[Anonymous User]

Maybe a better question is which markets are more/less exposed in this downturn. Is TX O&G going to go down (seems unlikely)? SF/SV Tech (more likely)? NY Finance (Always a q)?

RIP to any Cooley EC/VC juniors that also dumped savings into the firm's fund