It doesn't take that much pedigree to get biglaw today (pretty much just need to be the average t14 grad, at best), so I wouldn't put too much value into getting biglaw (unless you also had some stellar creds)
You're living in a bubble. You say that it doesn't take much pedigree to get biglaw today, but then you say you need a degree from one of the nation's most prestigious law schools. Which is it going to be?
It's easy to think we're a time a dozen when we live and work in a world where we're surrounded by people with credentials very similar to ours. But the reality couldn't be further from the truth, especially with regard to law students who were able to obtain biglaw during the financial crisis.
Further to the point, the lateral market is super hot right now... for qualified candidates. I am aware of pedigreed attorneys who have been laid off even as close to a few months ago and who have been unable to find something. But that's been the strong exception to the rule and it's pretty easy to point to a fatal flaw for that.
Anyways, I'm not sure what we're arguing. You've done your analysis and rendered your risk tolerance accordingly, as have I. I'm not about to change it or even try, to be honest, and everyone is different. But that's the way I think.