Inflation Adjusted Salary Scale Increase? Forum

[Anonymous User]

Wow, it’s all clear now. Really appreciate you spelling it out so clearly. Hmm, nope. Actually your response confirms that you are either a partner seeking to shut up the rabble of discontent associates, a soon-to-be partner who’s drinking the koolaid, or an apathetic attorney whose prospects for advancement have dwindled (i.e., soon-to-be washout). On the very off chance you’re an associate at DWP/MB/CSM, then the least you could do is meaningfully share your workflow experience. Otherwise, you’ve added nothing here. If you’re not, then you can go back anon-sniping associates on other threads.

Lol okay then. You wanted a concrete answer, and I gave it to you. We can come back in June of 2023 and see how this played out. Maybe I'm wrong, but based on my experience, that's what I think and I haven't even heard of anyone else talking about salary increases outside of these forums (most people can read the room).

If you want to know, my workflow is down from ~2500 hours to ~2000 hours.

[Anonymous User]

Wow, it’s all clear now. Really appreciate you spelling it out so clearly. Hmm, nope. Actually your response confirms that you are either a partner seeking to shut up the rabble of discontent associates, a soon-to-be partner who’s drinking the koolaid, or an apathetic attorney whose prospects for advancement have dwindled (i.e., soon-to-be washout). On the very off chance you’re an associate at DWP/MB/CSM, then the least you could do is meaningfully share your workflow experience. Otherwise, you’ve added nothing here. If you’re not, then you can go back anon-sniping associates on other threads.

Lol okay then. You wanted a concrete answer, and I gave it to you. We can come back in June of 2023 and see how this played out. Maybe I'm wrong, but based on my experience, that's what I think and I haven't even heard of anyone else talking about salary increases outside of these forums (most people can read the room).

If you want to know, my workflow is down from ~2500 hours to ~2000 hours.

It's not even a question -- there is a zero percent chance that there will be a salary increase in the near future. You don't get pay raises during recessions; you just hope your firm doesn't lay people off. And it's really silly and naive that the prior poster thinks anyone with that (obvious) view has to be a "partner seeking to shut up the rabble of discontent associates, a soon-to-be partner who’s drinking the koolaid, or an apathetic attorney whose prospects for advancement have dwindled."

[Bosque]

Wow, it’s all clear now. Really appreciate you spelling it out so clearly. Hmm, nope. Actually your response confirms that you are either a partner seeking to shut up the rabble of discontent associates, a soon-to-be partner who’s drinking the koolaid, or an apathetic attorney whose prospects for advancement have dwindled (i.e., soon-to-be washout). On the very off chance you’re an associate at DWP/MB/CSM, then the least you could do is meaningfully share your workflow experience. Otherwise, you’ve added nothing here. If you’re not, then you can go back anon-sniping associates on other threads.

Your name is "Anonymizer," and you have four total posts. And you're harassing someone about "anon-sniping?"

Fun.

[Anonymous User]

This thread is quickly devolving into a “2022 Bonus Announcement Predictions?” (expecting that one to pop up any week now per TLS tradition), but:

Firms aren’t thinking about inflation with respect to associate salaries. The things they’re focused on are: 1) transactional is way down vs. 21; 2) there is a reasonable case that we’re going to see a global recession within the next 12 months; 3) the talent war that firms were experiencing in 20 and 21 has died down. They’ll also tell you that all the associate comp. increases over the past 24 months have materially increased fixed expenses and they wouldn’t be lying.

All of that suggests the base case is stable bonuses EoY (be hopeful that means the DPW scale from 21 not the Cravath—remember DPW kicked it up another 20%) and no movement on comp. for at least the next year. And that’s IF things remain status quo and don’t materially degrade over the next two months.

As an industry, the best reasonable scenario for when comp. could increase again is if the recession in the US doesn’t materialize or is mercifully shallow and transactional picks up and then there’s an opportunity to take stock again and loosen the purse strings. In my view that set of facts can’t realistically materialize even under the best circumstances until end of ‘23, early ‘24. Emphasis that’s the best reasonable outcome and things could get much worse depending on how persistent inflation is.

[Anonymous User]

I think it's misleading to say that DPW kicked up the scale. They offered CSM's market bonus and then added special bonuses on top. Special bonuses are by definition intended as a one-time (i.e., non-precedent setting) extra bonus. Firms will absolutely say market remained at CSM and that the economy doesn't justify any special bonuses this year. People may complain about being busy in some practice groups, but that happened all the time pre-pandemic and nobody handed out anything other than standard hours-based above-market compensation for that.

I'd like more $$$ this year as much as the next associate would, but I just don't see that happening. Only thing that could change that is something unexpected coming out of CSM/DPW/MB.

[Anonymous User]

I think it's misleading to say that DPW kicked up the scale. They offered CSM's market bonus and then added special bonuses on top. Special bonuses are by definition intended as a one-time (i.e., non-precedent setting) extra bonus. Firms will absolutely say market remained at CSM and that the economy doesn't justify any special bonuses this year. People may complain about being busy in some practice groups, but that happened all the time pre-pandemic and nobody handed out anything other than standard hours-based above-market compensation for that.

I'd like more $$$ this year as much as the next associate would, but I just don't see that happening. Only thing that could change that is something unexpected coming out of CSM/DPW/MB.

(Cravath partner)

That’s nice on paper but as far as how actual human beings think, people will look at how big their end of year bonus was last year and compare it to their end of year bonus this year and act accordingly. In that real world sense, DPW set the scale, all semantics aside, and that’s going to be this year’s end of year measuring stick. No one who gets 20k less this year vs. last come December is going to say “ah, but a component of last year was called ‘special,’ thus I am whole and all is well in the world.”

[temp69420]

I think it's misleading to say that DPW kicked up the scale. They offered CSM's market bonus and then added special bonuses on top. Special bonuses are by definition intended as a one-time (i.e., non-precedent setting) extra bonus. Firms will absolutely say market remained at CSM and that the economy doesn't justify any special bonuses this year. People may complain about being busy in some practice groups, but that happened all the time pre-pandemic and nobody handed out anything other than standard hours-based above-market compensation for that.

I'd like more $$$ this year as much as the next associate would, but I just don't see that happening. Only thing that could change that is something unexpected coming out of CSM/DPW/MB.

(Cravath partner)

That’s nice on paper but as far as how actual human beings think, people will look at how big their end of year bonus was last year and compare it to their end of year bonus this year and act accordingly. In that real world sense, DPW set the scale, all semantics aside, and that’s going to be this year’s end of year measuring stick. No one who gets 20k less this year vs. last come December is going to say “ah, but a component of last year was called ‘special,’ thus I am whole and all is well in the world.”

It's exactly the fact that all isn't well in the world that causes some of us to expect lower bonuses.

[Anonymous User]

I think it's misleading to say that DPW kicked up the scale. They offered CSM's market bonus and then added special bonuses on top. Special bonuses are by definition intended as a one-time (i.e., non-precedent setting) extra bonus. Firms will absolutely say market remained at CSM and that the economy doesn't justify any special bonuses this year. People may complain about being busy in some practice groups, but that happened all the time pre-pandemic and nobody handed out anything other than standard hours-based above-market compensation for that.

I'd like more $$$ this year as much as the next associate would, but I just don't see that happening. Only thing that could change that is something unexpected coming out of CSM/DPW/MB.

(Cravath partner)

That’s nice on paper but as far as how actual human beings think, people will look at how big their end of year bonus was last year and compare it to their end of year bonus this year and act accordingly. In that real world sense, DPW set the scale, all semantics aside, and that’s going to be this year’s end of year measuring stick. No one who gets 20k less this year vs. last come December is going to say “ah, but a component of last year was called ‘special,’ thus I am whole and all is well in the world.”

It's exactly the fact that all isn't well in the world that causes some of us to expect lower bonuses.

That’s cool but I saw the earnings projection at my V25 and PEP will be mildly up for 22 over 21 despite transactional practices dragging ass so ….

(And far be it for law firm partnerships to ever take advantage of any excuse to cut comp.)

[Anonymous User]

I think it's misleading to say that DPW kicked up the scale. They offered CSM's market bonus and then added special bonuses on top. Special bonuses are by definition intended as a one-time (i.e., non-precedent setting) extra bonus. Firms will absolutely say market remained at CSM and that the economy doesn't justify any special bonuses this year. People may complain about being busy in some practice groups, but that happened all the time pre-pandemic and nobody handed out anything other than standard hours-based above-market compensation for that.

I'd like more $$$ this year as much as the next associate would, but I just don't see that happening. Only thing that could change that is something unexpected coming out of CSM/DPW/MB.

(Cravath partner)

That’s nice on paper but as far as how actual human beings think, people will look at how big their end of year bonus was last year and compare it to their end of year bonus this year and act accordingly. In that real world sense, DPW set the scale, all semantics aside, and that’s going to be this year’s end of year measuring stick. No one who gets 20k less this year vs. last come December is going to say “ah, but a component of last year was called ‘special,’ thus I am whole and all is well in the world.”

Totally agree this is how associates will react, but you as a CSM partner should know that what associates think doesn't matter much. If you and your partners feel that way too, that's promising for matching last year. I commend your generosity, and that's why I said what CSM/DPW/MB do is still a wildcard. But the point still stands - why firms call them "special" bonuses if nobody intended for them to be special? DPW left themselves (and everyone else) an out, and an impending global recession sounds like a pretty good reason to cash in on that.

[Anonymous User]

I think it's misleading to say that DPW kicked up the scale. They offered CSM's market bonus and then added special bonuses on top. Special bonuses are by definition intended as a one-time (i.e., non-precedent setting) extra bonus. Firms will absolutely say market remained at CSM and that the economy doesn't justify any special bonuses this year. People may complain about being busy in some practice groups, but that happened all the time pre-pandemic and nobody handed out anything other than standard hours-based above-market compensation for that.

I'd like more $$$ this year as much as the next associate would, but I just don't see that happening. Only thing that could change that is something unexpected coming out of CSM/DPW/MB.

(Cravath partner)

That’s nice on paper but as far as how actual human beings think, people will look at how big their end of year bonus was last year and compare it to their end of year bonus this year and act accordingly. In that real world sense, DPW set the scale, all semantics aside, and that’s going to be this year’s end of year measuring stick. No one who gets 20k less this year vs. last come December is going to say “ah, but a component of last year was called ‘special,’ thus I am whole and all is well in the world.”

Totally agree this is how associates will react, but you as a CSM partner should know that what associates think doesn't matter much. If you and your partners feel that way too, that's promising for matching last year. I commend your generosity, and that's why I said what CSM/DPW/MB do is still a wildcard. But the point still stands - why firms call them "special" bonuses if nobody intended for them to be special? DPW left themselves (and everyone else) an out, and an impending global recession sounds like a pretty good reason to cash in on that.

(guy who doesn't know about the load-bearing slash)

[Anonymous User]

(guy who doesn't know about the load-bearing slash)

Enlighten me. We already missed mid-year special bonuses and nobody quit.

[Anonymous User]

Something I’ve been pondering is that the associate comp market is basically driven by the actions of just 3 firms. So it’s not really what partnerships in general are thinking, it’s what those specific 3 firms are thinking. For example, I think the most recent round of raises came as a bit of a shock to most, given how recently it had been increased before that. But Milbank wanted to swing their dick, and DPW/CSM can never say no to a dick-swinging contest, and the rest of the market followed.

Many firms that do well in the current market (or future worse recession) will want to just hold onto those profits in the partnership and not raise anything. But if a certain firm, like Milbank, was doing well and saw it as an opportunity to boost their rep and put pressure on competitors who were handling the market worse, the partnership there might decide that further raises are a worthwhile invest in their longer-term talent market strategy. Doesn’t matter what any other firm thinks, as long as Milbank thinks that’s a good play.

I have no idea what the economics or Milbank/DPW/CSM are like these days and would love someone to chime in about it. I can tell you that over at Kirkland things are fine so far, and a lukewarm awkward market like the one we’re on is actually our worst case scenario (way more profits when it actually turns south for real). Sadly, Kirkland NEVER raises first, so that’s out. But perhaps another firm with a dick to swing is also outperforming the market and wants to take a chance on buying some power in the associate market?

[Anonymous User]

I saw the figures for our V50 transactional practice, and they’re also up from 2021.

Most of the doom and gloom is just lawyers being lawyers. I’ve been practicing for a while, and there’s always an excuse as to why the economy is going down the tubes and salary raises are a poor idea. Partners were still pulling the “we’re emerging from the GFC” line almost a decade after it all subsided. 2020-21 were outliers.