For those who made partner, when did you know you had a chance? Forum

[Prudent_Jurist]

Can someone be “trained up” from good to great ??

Ya, seniors just have to send them aggressive redlines.

[Anonymous User]

Can someone be “trained up” from good to great ??

Ya, seniors just have to send them aggressive redlines.

LFG say his name 3x: redline psycho, redline psycho, redline psycho.

[Monochromatic Oeuvre]

Do the math at how many people originally hired in 2012 or 2013 became partner at any Biglaw firm and you'll find the actual number depresses you.

Heck, do the math for the number of people still working hard as fourth or fifth years with an earnest belief that promotion was possible, and you'll get discouraged by that number too.

Anyone do the bath of the envelope math? Curious..

I did pre-Covid, and guessed that about 5% of incoming summer associates would make partner anywhere in Biglaw, and that the rate for well-liked senior (7th+ year) associates who always hit their hours and were told they had a shot was about 25%. These were very, very rough guesses and they undoubtedly go up and down with the overall environment and the hiring market.

The only people I ever really kept any tabs on start to finish were the people in my summer class. When I came in for orientation I remember guessing that out of the ~35 summers, 1 would be partner here and 1 would be partner at another Biglaw firm. Can only report that small sample in 2-5 years, unfortunately.

[Anonymous User]

Do the math at how many people originally hired in 2012 or 2013 became partner at any Biglaw firm and you'll find the actual number depresses you.

Heck, do the math for the number of people still working hard as fourth or fifth years with an earnest belief that promotion was possible, and you'll get discouraged by that number too.

Anyone do the bath of the envelope math? Curious..

I did pre-Covid, and guessed that about 5% of incoming summer associates would make partner anywhere in Biglaw, and that the rate for well-liked senior (7th+ year) associates who always hit their hours and were told they had a shot was about 25%. These were very, very rough guesses and they undoubtedly go up and down with the overall environment and the hiring market.

The only people I ever really kept any tabs on start to finish were the people in my summer class. When I came in for orientation I remember guessing that out of the ~35 summers, 1 would be partner here and 1 would be partner at another Biglaw firm. Can only report that small sample in 2-5 years, unfortunately.

I'm class of 2012. From the Biglaw firm I started at (a V100), we had 18 of us as first years (lost a couple from our summer class before we even started). At that firm, one person from my class is a partner (and that person has a relative who is a partner at the same firm...) and one is counsel. When I lateraled as a mid level there were only 4 of us even left at the firm. Most left Biglaw entirely (they went to nonprofits, in house, government, small firms in the midwest because they got married, etc.), but a few of us lateraled to other firms. Not sure if anyone other than that one person has made partner at a Biglaw. The numbers aren't great, but also so many of these people self-selected out, and the hiring market for folks who started law school in fall 2009 was very very different than it is now.

[Anonymous User]

Do the math at how many people originally hired in 2012 or 2013 became partner at any Biglaw firm and you'll find the actual number depresses you.

Heck, do the math for the number of people still working hard as fourth or fifth years with an earnest belief that promotion was possible, and you'll get discouraged by that number too.

Anyone do the bath of the envelope math? Curious..

I did pre-Covid, and guessed that about 5% of incoming summer associates would make partner anywhere in Biglaw, and that the rate for well-liked senior (7th+ year) associates who always hit their hours and were told they had a shot was about 25%. These were very, very rough guesses and they undoubtedly go up and down with the overall environment and the hiring market.

The only people I ever really kept any tabs on start to finish were the people in my summer class. When I came in for orientation I remember guessing that out of the ~35 summers, 1 would be partner here and 1 would be partner at another Biglaw firm. Can only report that small sample in 2-5 years, unfortunately.

The 7th Years number is what is depressing as these are people who didn't self-select out earlier and probably most of them are hoping for partnership.

[Anonymous User]

If we're just aiming for a back of the envelope calc, then compare recent entry level numbers for a given firm/office on the hiring tab in the NALP directory with the most recent partner elevation announcements. Obviously those numbers aren't 100% accurate since class sizes vary over time, but it's a good estimate. It will be more accurate for firms that have relatively stable attorney ranks. Don't forget to factor in laterals, too.

In my office we get roughly 20 new first years and make 2-3 partners every year. Bump up the incoming number by about 30% for laterals, and you're looking at 2-3 out of every 26 or ~7-12% chance. We have far lower leverage than other biglaw firms, so this is probably on the high side.

As others have pointed out, there's a lot of self-selection. I'm just a midlevel and we've already lost about half of my original class (that's also probably low compared to some of the V10 NYC offices). I'd venture a guess that those people never really wanted to be in the running to begin with. If you look at it that way, then we can drop the denominator by 10 and say 2-3 of every 16 who are interested make it. Marginally better odds at 12-19%.

Note that my rounding is intentionally incorrect. I wanted to avoid making these ranges look particularly accurate or narrow given that this is a super rough approximation.

[Anonymous User]

If helpful, my NY firm class (c/o 2017) started with 100+ associates and there are ~25 left. Not counting any laterals.

[Anonymous User]

If helpful, my NY firm class (c/o 2017) started with 100+ associates and there are ~25 left. Not counting any laterals.

Sounds about right. Interestingly, even if there are more associates competing to begin, if the numbers drop enough the rate may be roughly the same shot for those who wait it out.

How many made partner last year? How many laterals in - maybe 7 or so?

[Anonymous User]

Do the math at how many people originally hired in 2012 or 2013 became partner at any Biglaw firm and you'll find the actual number depresses you.

Heck, do the math for the number of people still working hard as fourth or fifth years with an earnest belief that promotion was possible, and you'll get discouraged by that number too.

Anyone do the bath of the envelope math? Curious..

I did pre-Covid, and guessed that about 5% of incoming summer associates would make partner anywhere in Biglaw, and that the rate for well-liked senior (7th+ year) associates who always hit their hours and were told they had a shot was about 25%. These were very, very rough guesses and they undoubtedly go up and down with the overall environment and the hiring market.

The only people I ever really kept any tabs on start to finish were the people in my summer class. When I came in for orientation I remember guessing that out of the ~35 summers, 1 would be partner here and 1 would be partner at another Biglaw firm. Can only report that small sample in 2-5 years, unfortunately.

The 7th Years number is what is depressing as these are people who didn't self-select out earlier and probably most of them are hoping for partnership.

Yup. And it's the reason why so many self select out. Why stick around if the odds are so low?

[Monochromatic Oeuvre]

I did pre-Covid, and guessed that about 5% of incoming summer associates would make partner anywhere in Biglaw, and that the rate for well-liked senior (7th+ year) associates who always hit their hours and were told they had a shot was about 25%. These were very, very rough guesses and they undoubtedly go up and down with the overall environment and the hiring market.

The only people I ever really kept any tabs on start to finish were the people in my summer class. When I came in for orientation I remember guessing that out of the ~35 summers, 1 would be partner here and 1 would be partner at another Biglaw firm. Can only report that small sample in 2-5 years, unfortunately.

To supplement, my friends are I did this exercise a few months ago (which was roughly the 5-year mark of when we'd started).

IIRC, out of the ~35 original summers:

7 were still with the original firm
14 were in other Biglaw firms
3 were in-house
6 were in other legal roles (PI, midlaw, boutiques, international)
4 were out of law entirely
1 was dead (a famous TLSer years ago, RIP)

[Anonymous User]

I think the question of making at your original firm vs. BigLaw in general is important, because there tons of reasons to lateral that aren’t about you failing to make partner at your original firm (signing bonus, following a departing partner, relocation, personal reasons, etc). Measuring first year > partner doesn’t tell the whole story.

There is also tons of self-selection. In my first year class there were people who openly said they planned to go in house or to government after 3-5 years from the moment they arrived, with zero desire to stay longer. This is basically impossible to measure, but the real metric would be people who made BigLaw partner at any firm (or maybe any peer firm) divided by the total of those people + the ones who desired to make partner and didn’t self-self select out, then ultimately failed to make it.

[Anonymous User]

I think the question of making at your original firm vs. BigLaw in general is important, because there tons of reasons to lateral that aren’t about you failing to make partner at your original firm (signing bonus, following a departing partner, relocation, personal reasons, etc). Measuring first year > partner doesn’t tell the whole story.

There is also tons of self-selection. In my first year class there were people who openly said they planned to go in house or to government after 3-5 years from the moment they arrived, with zero desire to stay longer. This is basically impossible to measure, but the real metric would be people who made BigLaw partner at any firm (or maybe any peer firm) divided by the total of those people + the ones who desired to make partner and didn’t self-self select out, then ultimately failed to make it.

Right, that's why I dropped the denominator to the number present as a mid-level. We're talking about approximations here - not an exact science.

[Anonymous User]

I did pre-Covid, and guessed that about 5% of incoming summer associates would make partner anywhere in Biglaw, and that the rate for well-liked senior (7th+ year) associates who always hit their hours and were told they had a shot was about 25%. These were very, very rough guesses and they undoubtedly go up and down with the overall environment and the hiring market.

The only people I ever really kept any tabs on start to finish were the people in my summer class. When I came in for orientation I remember guessing that out of the ~35 summers, 1 would be partner here and 1 would be partner at another Biglaw firm. Can only report that small sample in 2-5 years, unfortunately.

To supplement, my friends are I did this exercise a few months ago (which was roughly the 5-year mark of when we'd started).

IIRC, out of the ~35 original summers:

7 were still with the original firm
14 were in other Biglaw firms
3 were in-house
6 were in other legal roles (PI, midlaw, boutiques, international)
4 were out of law entirely
1 was dead (a famous TLSer years ago, RIP)

Thanks for sharing this post, helpful.

Do you think it’s fair to say that if someone is determined to make partner, starting out at the best firm they can and then lateraling down in the rankings when required to remain in the partner running would potentially work?

For example,

Summer at V10
First few years at V10
Lateral to V50, run for partner,
Not make it, lateral out to V100

[Anonymous User]

I did pre-Covid, and guessed that about 5% of incoming summer associates would make partner anywhere in Biglaw, and that the rate for well-liked senior (7th+ year) associates who always hit their hours and were told they had a shot was about 25%. These were very, very rough guesses and they undoubtedly go up and down with the overall environment and the hiring market.

The only people I ever really kept any tabs on start to finish were the people in my summer class. When I came in for orientation I remember guessing that out of the ~35 summers, 1 would be partner here and 1 would be partner at another Biglaw firm. Can only report that small sample in 2-5 years, unfortunately.

To supplement, my friends are I did this exercise a few months ago (which was roughly the 5-year mark of when we'd started).

IIRC, out of the ~35 original summers:

7 were still with the original firm
14 were in other Biglaw firms
3 were in-house
6 were in other legal roles (PI, midlaw, boutiques, international)
4 were out of law entirely
1 was dead (a famous TLSer years ago, RIP)

Thanks for sharing this post, helpful.

Do you think it’s fair to say that if someone is determined to make partner, starting out at the best firm they can and then lateraling down in the rankings when required to remain in the partner running would potentially work?

For example,

Summer at V10
First few years at V10
Lateral to V50, run for partner,
Not make it, lateral out to V100

I've seen that work, but it's hard to do. At many firms, you won't know whether you're partner material until it's too late to lateral. For example, my V25 elevates at ~10yrs or so. Options for lateraling at that point are slim unless you have a book of business. I have, however, seen some in that situation "lateral down" to a special counsel role and then make partner after proving they can generate business. However, for some, if you lateral too late in the game, you won't have enough time to impress enough partners to have enough support for your elevation.

[Anonymous User]

I think lateral down to make partner works best when you come from Kirkland which makes everyone partner. So you already have the title and can negotiate to keep the title and make equity down the line. But if you're a 9th year associate coming in as a 9th year, yeah that's going to be tough.