What's going on in Texas? Forum

[Anonymous User]

Seriously considering moving to a new market based on the downturn, but the thought of taking the bar exam over again just cripples me.

[Anonymous User]

All of the juniors talking about leaving houston need to chill. Not a single firm in Houston has starting laying people off, so give it a while. These firms aren't going to just start slashing junior associates out of nowhere--you will see it coming and some of the second tier shops will start laying people off before one of the big 3 (or whatever) does.

[Anonymous User]

It's not really the worry about being laid off. Rather, it's being slow and not getting the experience one needs to be a desirable candidate down the line.

No one wants to hire a 5th year who's operating as an inexperienced 2nd year.

[Anonymous User]

Experience is overrated. All I care about is the work-to-dollar earned ratio. My $9300 monthly net comes whether I bill 300 or 100. The big law hamster wheel doesn't give a shit about you. The goal of the game is to get paid for as long as possible while doing as little as possible. By the time they're ready to fire you, you're ready to go in-house, for which your "experience" is whatever you concoct at the interview. Most juniors and midlevels who went in house from my V50 said their so-called law firm "experience" was about as useful for their in-house gig as law school was for corporate work.

A downturn is a godsend. What kind of idiot lemming would take a new bar, burn bridges, move houses, opt to incur state and city taxes, and transfer to a V5 just so they can get shit on by douchebag screamers?

[Anonymous User]

^^I basically take a similar, but slightly more tempered approach than the above poster. Don't worry so much about what experience you are getting. If some of you are just now first years (i.e., you've been working for 4 or 5 months), wait until a year from now before making a decision. In the mean time, you should honestly enjoy some of that free time, hit the gym, meet some other attorneys in town by going to bar events, etc. If a year goes by and you still aren't getting any work, then consider a move. But until that happens, I would spend less time worrying about whether you should relocate and more time enjoying the fact that youre (probably) in your twenties and making 160k.

[Anonymous User]

Experience is overrated. All I care about is the work-to-dollar earned ratio. My $9300 monthly net comes whether I bill 300 or 100. The big law hamster wheel doesn't give a shit about you. The goal of the game is to get paid for as long as possible while doing as little as possible. By the time they're ready to fire you, you're ready to go in-house, for which your "experience" is whatever you concoct at the interview. Most juniors and midlevels who went in house from my V50 said their so-called law firm "experience" was about as useful for their in-house gig as law school was for corporate work.

A downturn is a godsend. What kind of idiot lemming would take a new bar, burn bridges, move houses, opt to incur state and city taxes, and transfer to a V5 just so they can get shit on by douchebag screamers?

Easy there, guy. Yes, the downtime is awesome and making this much money for doing absolutely nothing is really a godsend. However, if that means 4 years from now I'll be making next to nothing, then maybe moving isn't the worst thing in the world?

Sure, I can rely on the fact that you say experience is overrated, but I can just as easily point to senior associates/other midlevels who say experience is essential (at least in terms of getting hired). In any event, I'm not particularly stressed and I don't actually plan on relocating, but it's definitely something one should consider. I mean, people stress out between choosing between going to Columbia on a full ride versus going to Harvard at sticker. I think the concern of whether or not I'll be employable in a few years isn't nearly as insufferable, especially by TLS standards.

[Anonymous User]

Experience is overrated. All I care about is the work-to-dollar earned ratio. My $9300 monthly net comes whether I bill 300 or 100. The big law hamster wheel doesn't give a shit about you. The goal of the game is to get paid for as long as possible while doing as little as possible. By the time they're ready to fire you, you're ready to go in-house, for which your "experience" is whatever you concoct at the interview. Most juniors and midlevels who went in house from my V50 said their so-called law firm "experience" was about as useful for their in-house gig as law school was for corporate work.

A downturn is a godsend. What kind of idiot lemming would take a new bar, burn bridges, move houses, opt to incur state and city taxes, and transfer to a V5 just so they can get shit on by douchebag screamers?

Easy there, guy. Yes, the downtime is awesome and making this much money for doing absolutely nothing is really a godsend. However, if that means 4 years from now I'll be making next to nothing, then maybe moving isn't the worst thing in the world?

Sure, I can rely on the fact that you say experience is overrated, but I can just as easily point to senior associates/other midlevels who say experience is essential (at least in terms of getting hired). In any event, I'm not particularly stressed and I don't actually plan on relocating, but it's definitely something one should consider. I mean, people stress out between choosing between going to Columbia on a full ride versus going to Harvard at sticker. I think the concern of whether or not I'll be employable in a few years isn't nearly as insufferable, especially by TLS standards.

Or you may burn out if you move to a really busy firm. The perfect scenario would be 40-50 hours a week max, with steady work, no night/weekend work, but it never works out that way. At least in transactional, you're either slow, or 60+ hours billable a week working at night/weekends, etc. (so really like 80 hour weeks in the office)

[Anonymous User]

Or you may burn out if you move to a really busy firm. The perfect scenario would be 40-50 hours a week max, with steady work, but it never works out that way. At least in transactional, you're either slow, or 60+ hours a week....

True. A man-child can dream though, right?

[Anonymous User]

Here is the question. Is this actually a good thing for low level associates (1-3 years)? Oil is a boom and bust industry. Most projections have oil stabilizing by late 2016/early 2017 at the latest. If there are boom times again in 3 years for oil and these associates are now midlevels - they will be more likely to keep their spot at the firm longer (if that is the goal).

This is all assuming you don't get laid off. But I imagine/hope that this is not that far-fetched. Some of the current 8th years were here when things were bad last time, and then their bonuses in year 5/6/7 were insanely good. They are kind of screwed with partnership prospects right now, but when they started years 1-2 (2007/08) were really slow, then it was booming when bonuses are large.

[Anonymous User]

As a (juniorish) corporate midlevel, I'd say no. I think it's critical to get good experience starting out to overcome the corporate learning curve. If you progress into midlevel status without being able to do midlevel stuff, there won't be any need for you. I think the dearth of capital markets work over the past year has been pretty bad for juniors, as that's traditionally been a major practice for Houston firms.

[Anonymous User]

Here is the question. Is this actually a good thing for low level associates (1-3 years)? Oil is a boom and bust industry. Most projections have oil stabilizing by late 2016/early 2017 at the latest. If there are boom times again in 3 years for oil and these associates are now midlevels - they will be more likely to keep their spot at the firm longer (if that is the goal).

This is all assuming you don't get laid off. But I imagine/hope that this is not that far-fetched. Some of the current 8th years were here when things were bad last time, and then their bonuses in year 5/6/7 were insanely good. They are kind of screwed with partnership prospects right now, but when they started years 1-2 (2007/08) were really slow, then it was booming when bonuses are large.

What projections have oil stabilizing by the end of this year? Do you mean stabilizing at $20/bbl? Because I wouldn't feel so hot if that's what you mean by stabilizing. Lots of projections are bearish on oil over the next 3-5 years, so I feel like you're being too optimistic here.

Also, firms that claim not to fire anyone are lying through their teeth. Stealth layoffs are definitely a thing. You'll see people mysteriously start disappearing/lateraling because they want a lifestyle/firm change of pace if things tay like this. I wouldn't have felt very good working during the financial crisis, but this new period could be really, really bad for Houston. Oil prices haven't been this low since 2002.

Not sure thinking about nebulous partnership chances in 2024 is the right way to go about this.

[Anonymous User]

Here is the question. Is this actually a good thing for low level associates (1-3 years)? Oil is a boom and bust industry. Most projections have oil stabilizing by late 2016/early 2017 at the latest. If there are boom times again in 3 years for oil and these associates are now midlevels - they will be more likely to keep their spot at the firm longer (if that is the goal).

This is all assuming you don't get laid off. But I imagine/hope that this is not that far-fetched. Some of the current 8th years were here when things were bad last time, and then their bonuses in year 5/6/7 were insanely good. They are kind of screwed with partnership prospects right now, but when they started years 1-2 (2007/08) were really slow, then it was booming when bonuses are large.

What projections have oil stabilizing by the end of this year? Do you mean stabilizing at $20/bbl? Because I wouldn't feel so hot if that's what you mean by stabilizing. Lots of projections are bearish on oil over the next 3-5 years, so I feel like you're being too optimistic here.

Also, firms that claim not to fire anyone are lying through their teeth. Stealth layoffs are definitely a thing. You'll see people mysteriously start disappearing/lateraling because they want a lifestyle/firm change of pace if things tay like this. I wouldn't have felt very good working during the financial crisis, but this new period could be really, really bad for Houston. Oil prices haven't been this low since 2002.

Not sure thinking about nebulous partnership chances in 2024 is the right way to go about this.

Have you read any of the BAML/JP Morgan/Credit Suisse reports? Or are you just going off yahoo news with random people talking about the bearish markets? I have not seen one projection from a respected financial institution that is not putting oil prices rebounding by year end (most say $45ish) and settling close to $60 by Q4 2017. I am not trying to be condescending, I am actually curious if you have seen informed researched projections holding oil down till year end. I have not seen a single one. BAML/JPM/CS/etc. have all pointed in the same direction, still only a projection of course.

[Anonymous User]

As a (juniorish) corporate midlevel, I'd say no. I think it's critical to get good experience starting out to overcome the corporate learning curve. If you progress into midlevel status without being able to do midlevel stuff, there won't be any need for you. I think the dearth of capital markets work over the past year has been pretty bad for juniors, as that's traditionally been a major practice for Houston firms.

Assuming there is some minimum level of work, do you think juniors can get more substantive experience early because clients are more cost-conscious?

[Anonymous User]

I heard $55 a barrel is the (average) minimum for companies and states to meet their obligations.... I love how OPEC's plan has backfired

[Anonymous User]

I heard $55 a barrel is the (average) minimum for companies and states to meet their obligations.... I love how OPEC's plan has backfired

For Saudis I have seen $20 as marginal cost and $6 as average cost, but I think that was some CNN bullshit or something.

[Anonymous User]

Here is the question. Is this actually a good thing for low level associates (1-3 years)? Oil is a boom and bust industry. Most projections have oil stabilizing by late 2016/early 2017 at the latest. If there are boom times again in 3 years for oil and these associates are now midlevels - they will be more likely to keep their spot at the firm longer (if that is the goal).

This is all assuming you don't get laid off. But I imagine/hope that this is not that far-fetched. Some of the current 8th years were here when things were bad last time, and then their bonuses in year 5/6/7 were insanely good. They are kind of screwed with partnership prospects right now, but when they started years 1-2 (2007/08) were really slow, then it was booming when bonuses are large.

What projections have oil stabilizing by the end of this year? Do you mean stabilizing at $20/bbl? Because I wouldn't feel so hot if that's what you mean by stabilizing. Lots of projections are bearish on oil over the next 3-5 years, so I feel like you're being too optimistic here.

Also, firms that claim not to fire anyone are lying through their teeth. Stealth layoffs are definitely a thing. You'll see people mysteriously start disappearing/lateraling because they want a lifestyle/firm change of pace if things tay like this. I wouldn't have felt very good working during the financial crisis, but this new period could be really, really bad for Houston. Oil prices haven't been this low since 2002.

Not sure thinking about nebulous partnership chances in 2024 is the right way to go about this.

Have you read any of the BAML/JP Morgan/Credit Suisse reports? Or are you just going off yahoo news with random people talking about the bearish markets? I have not seen one projection from a respected financial institution that is not putting oil prices rebounding by year end (most say $45ish) and settling close to $60 by Q4 2017. I am not trying to be condescending, I am actually curious if you have seen informed researched projections holding oil down till year end. I have not seen a single one. BAML/JPM/CS/etc. have all pointed in the same direction, still only a projection of course.

Even if these people had projections lets me honest... how reliable are the numbers? I think not much.. the only thing that's certain is that in the short term (next 2-3 months) prices won't go up by much simply because there's so much supply

[Anonymous User]

I heard $55 a barrel is the (average) minimum for companies and states to meet their obligations.... I love how OPEC's plan has backfired

For Saudis I have seen $20 as marginal cost and $6 as average cost, but I think that was some CNN bullshit or something.

I think that's actually accurate for Saudi. Their cost of production is insanely cheap.

[Anonymous User]

I heard $55 a barrel is the (average) minimum for companies and states to meet their obligations.... I love how OPEC's plan has backfired

For Saudis I have seen $20 as marginal cost and $6 as average cost, but I think that was some CNN bullshit or something.

I think that's actually accurate for Saudi. Their cost of production is insanely cheap.

$4-6 per barrel...

[Anonymous User]

I heard $55 a barrel is the (average) minimum for companies and states to meet their obligations.... I love how OPEC's plan has backfired

For Saudis I have seen $20 as marginal cost and $6 as average cost, but I think that was some CNN bullshit or something.

I think that's actually accurate for Saudi. Their cost of production is insanely cheap.

$4-6 per barrel...

Again, they have very cheap production costs. Huge reservoirs close to the surface, cheap to drill, cheap to maintain, cheap to transport, cheap labor costs in general. Not much E&P necessary since there are tons of proven reserves. Scale economies with a high-quality product that doesn't need to be refined as extensively as the heavy, sour oil of the Canadian tar sands or Venezuela's crap.

I think $5-6/bbl is a real figure.

[Anonymous User]

Here is the question. Is this actually a good thing for low level associates (1-3 years)? Oil is a boom and bust industry. Most projections have oil stabilizing by late 2016/early 2017 at the latest. If there are boom times again in 3 years for oil and these associates are now midlevels - they will be more likely to keep their spot at the firm longer (if that is the goal).

This is all assuming you don't get laid off. But I imagine/hope that this is not that far-fetched. Some of the current 8th years were here when things were bad last time, and then their bonuses in year 5/6/7 were insanely good. They are kind of screwed with partnership prospects right now, but when they started years 1-2 (2007/08) were really slow, then it was booming when bonuses are large.

What projections have oil stabilizing by the end of this year? Do you mean stabilizing at $20/bbl? Because I wouldn't feel so hot if that's what you mean by stabilizing. Lots of projections are bearish on oil over the next 3-5 years, so I feel like you're being too optimistic here.

Also, firms that claim not to fire anyone are lying through their teeth. Stealth layoffs are definitely a thing. You'll see people mysteriously start disappearing/lateraling because they want a lifestyle/firm change of pace if things tay like this. I wouldn't have felt very good working during the financial crisis, but this new period could be really, really bad for Houston. Oil prices haven't been this low since 2002.

Not sure thinking about nebulous partnership chances in 2024 is the right way to go about this.

Have you read any of the BAML/JP Morgan/Credit Suisse reports? Or are you just going off yahoo news with random people talking about the bearish markets? I have not seen one projection from a respected financial institution that is not putting oil prices rebounding by year end (most say $45ish) and settling close to $60 by Q4 2017. I am not trying to be condescending, I am actually curious if you have seen informed researched projections holding oil down till year end. I have not seen a single one. BAML/JPM/CS/etc. have all pointed in the same direction, still only a projection of course.

Even if these people had projections lets me honest... how reliable are the numbers? I think not much.. the only thing that's certain is that in the short term (next 2-3 months) prices won't go up by much simply because there's so much supply

Probably not very reliable. It's really hard to project commodities 18-24 months out, especially something like oil that has a history of fluctuating so much.

[Anonymous User]

I heard $55 a barrel is the (average) minimum for companies and states to meet their obligations.... I love how OPEC's plan has backfired

For Saudis I have seen $20 as marginal cost and $6 as average cost, but I think that was some CNN bullshit or something.

I think that's actually accurate for Saudi. Their cost of production is insanely cheap.

$4-6 per barrel...

Again, they have very cheap production costs. Huge reservoirs close to the surface, cheap to drill, cheap to maintain, cheap to transport, cheap labor costs in general. Not much E&P necessary since there are tons of proven reserves. Scale economies with a high-quality product that doesn't need to be refined as extensively as the heavy, sour oil of the Canadian tar sands or Venezuela's crap.

I think $5-6/bbl is a real figure.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopher ... 0d282d7220

it's bad

[Anonymous User]

I heard $55 a barrel is the (average) minimum for companies and states to meet their obligations.... I love how OPEC's plan has backfired

For Saudis I have seen $20 as marginal cost and $6 as average cost, but I think that was some CNN bullshit or something.

I think that's actually accurate for Saudi. Their cost of production is insanely cheap.

$4-6 per barrel...

Again, they have very cheap production costs. Huge reservoirs close to the surface, cheap to drill, cheap to maintain, cheap to transport, cheap labor costs in general. Not much E&P necessary since there are tons of proven reserves. Scale economies with a high-quality product that doesn't need to be refined as extensively as the heavy, sour oil of the Canadian tar sands or Venezuela's crap.

I think $5-6/bbl is a real figure.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopher ... 0d282d7220

it's bad

Thanks for the link, we're screwed lol

[Anonymous User]

This article seems to support the bleak consensus of this thread

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/busines ... 655820.php

[Johann]

this is the thing - you are probably alright (95% safe). the problem with all of these things is if you get laid off it might be the end of your career. so its a low risk percentile wise but its your livelihood on the line.

right now im working with a contract attorney who graduated from a T-14 law school in the last boom (2004-2007). he had multiple big law offers in different practice groups. he picked corporate instead over another group. 2008 hit and he was laid off. he had substantive big law experience but got shit on by the economy and now hes taking orders from 2014 TTT grads. the most hell ever earn in his career occurred in his 1st year because he just picked the wrong practice group. im a risk taker, so i dont know what id do given the hours kushiness and tax/COL savings, but id spend a lot of time figuring out my risk tolerance.

[Anonymous User]

I own a house (probably would rent it out if I moved to avoid selling in this market), etc.

Is the Houston market down? My house in (suburban) Dallas has gone up $100k in value in the last 2 years.

Keeping with the theme of the thread, I have been slow since January and most junior associates are slow as well.