AM LAW: SUMMER ASSOCIATE HIRING DOWN 44 PERCENT OVER 2009 Forum

[testmachine45]

I figured it was about half. Looks like 2012 will be about the same. I hope the rebound occurs by 2013, but we should all assume it won't.

I assumed it was more than 50%. And I'm not holding my breath.

Firms need new associates, and the legal market isn't down 44%. There has to be an increase eventually. Though it might be too late for us.

I agree that the volume in legal work isn't down 44% but I suspect firms will be cautious to bring much larger junior associate classes in so long as a) clients continue to refuse to pay, b) firms are able to maintain lean staffing, and c) the economy remains uncertain

None of this matters. The point is even if the economy does pick up, and more hiring occurs, it will fall back down at some point, which means while you might have a job for 1-3 years, it is unlikely u will be able to keep it because the law firms will downgrade again. This is the nature of biglaw nowadays.

Still, as I said before, 3,586 people is a lot of people and it means a lot of us at T20 schools have good chances of big law.

[sumus romani]

Can someone who knows more than I do about this elaborate on what this means for those who are looking to work for a smaller firm after graduation? I know that the hiring decrease is correlated to that in big law but considering that most small firms primarily don't recruit through OCI, what affect does the reduction in firms attending OCI have on those looking at small firm work?

Because OCI is run during the summer between 1L and 2L, those who miss out on OCI will be competing against you for a small-firm job during the summer between 2L and 3L, and then later through 3L, and finally after graduation. So this is terrible news all around, even those not looking for biglaw.

We're all still screwed then. Got it. Thanks.

I hope that not all of us are screwed; but this is news that will affect all us (mostly negatively). The thought of competing against, say, a top 1/3 Northwestern grad for a smalllaw job should scare the hell out of anyone.

[sumus romani]

I figured it was about half. Looks like 2012 will be about the same. I hope the rebound occurs by 2013, but we should all assume it won't.

I assumed it was more than 50%. And I'm not holding my breath.

Firms need new associates, and the legal market isn't down 44%. There has to be an increase eventually. Though it might be too late for us.

Remember that there is outsourcing to India now, etc.

[miamiman]

None of this matters. The point is even if the economy does pick up, and more hiring occurs, it will fall back down at some point, which means while you might have a job for 1-3 years, it is unlikely u will be able to keep it because the law firms will downgrade again. This is the nature of biglaw nowadays.

Still, as I said before, 3,586 people is a lot of people and it means a lot of us at T20 schools have good chances of big law.

Unless they simply recruit sparsely and maintain smallish junior associate classes....which is what they're doing.

[testmachine45]

None of this matters. The point is even if the economy does pick up, and more hiring occurs, it will fall back down at some point, which means while you might have a job for 1-3 years, it is unlikely u will be able to keep it because the law firms will downgrade again. This is the nature of biglaw nowadays.

Still, as I said before, 3,586 people is a lot of people and it means a lot of us at T20 schools have good chances of big law.

Unless they simply recruit sparsely and maintain smallish junior associate classes....which is what they're doing.

Huh?

3,586 is like 60 percent of every class from T1-T20. That's a lot of ppl.

[romothesavior]

How can you read about a 44% drop from '09 to '10 and sound positive about the raw total leftover?

Sell Manilla, I knight you the smartest person on TLS... Hilarious how people are so ignorant of how bad the market really is. There's a Yalie rising 3L summering at a midmarket firm in the city I'm in... Do you have any idea how depressing that is. When Yale isn't a ticket into a V50, things are really, really, bad.

While your general point is credited (the market is bad), your anecdote is less than convincing.

[miamiman]

None of this matters. The point is even if the economy does pick up, and more hiring occurs, it will fall back down at some point, which means while you might have a job for 1-3 years, it is unlikely u will be able to keep it because the law firms will downgrade again. This is the nature of biglaw nowadays.

Still, as I said before, 3,586 people is a lot of people and it means a lot of us at T20 schools have good chances of big law.

Unless they simply recruit sparsely and maintain smallish junior associate classes....which is what they're doing.

Huh?

3,586 is like 60 percent of every class from T1-T20. That's a lot of ppl.

I hope you aren't serious. Skadden went from 200 to 20 in less than two years.

[sundevil77]

None of this matters. The point is even if the economy does pick up, and more hiring occurs, it will fall back down at some point, which means while you might have a job for 1-3 years, it is unlikely u will be able to keep it because the law firms will downgrade again. This is the nature of biglaw nowadays.

Still, as I said before, 3,586 people is a lot of people and it means a lot of us at T20 schools have good chances of big law.

Unless they simply recruit sparsely and maintain smallish junior associate classes....which is what they're doing.

Huh?

3,586 is like 60 percent of every class from T1-T20. That's a lot of ppl.

I'm no genius, but I think he might be referring to your comment about not being able to maintain your job (if you get a job) for more than 1-3 years. If Biglaw firms are intentionally keeping junior associate classes small, they probably intend to keep those they hire.

[doyleoil]

I hope you aren't serious. Skadden went from 200 to 20 in less than two years.

that was cravath, dood - skadden's at around 75-80 or so - still, not good

[miamiman]

I hope you aren't serious. Skadden went from 200 to 20 in less than two years.

that was cravath, dood - skadden's at around 75-80 or so - still, not good

Sorry, Cravath. Same difference -- my point stands.

[romothesavior]

Glad I'm not the only one who confused Skadden with Cravath. No idea why.

[doyleoil]

I hope you aren't serious. Skadden went from 200 to 20 in less than two years.

that was cravath, dood - skadden's at around 75-80 or so - still, not good

Sorry, Cravath. Same difference -- my point stands.

it's not good - there's still plenty of room for those who do well at good schools - my point? don't be a fuckup in law school

[testmachine45]

None of this matters. The point is even if the economy does pick up, and more hiring occurs, it will fall back down at some point, which means while you might have a job for 1-3 years, it is unlikely u will be able to keep it because the law firms will downgrade again. This is the nature of biglaw nowadays.

Still, as I said before, 3,586 people is a lot of people and it means a lot of us at T20 schools have good chances of big law.

Unless they simply recruit sparsely and maintain smallish junior associate classes....which is what they're doing.

Huh?

3,586 is like 60 percent of every class from T1-T20. That's a lot of ppl.

I'm no genius, but I think he might be referring to your comment about not being able to maintain your job (if you get a job) for more than 1-3 years. If Biglaw firms are intentionally keeping junior associate classes small, they probably intend to keep those they hire.

They wanted to keep everyone they hired before the recession too. The point is that if the economy rebounds, and they have to expand their classes, then they will keep that going for a while in the booming economy(just as pre-recession), and then when the economy tanks, the people who are in class years 3-4(the ones who are getting hired now, the ones in the smaller class sizes) are the ones who will get fired(because they cost more and empirically speaking, this is what law firms did during this downtown - they fired mostly more senior ppl). So just because they are hiring small now does not mean they want to keep them forever and ever, it just means they dont have the work load for greater class size at this time.

[miamiman]

I hope you aren't serious. Skadden went from 200 to 20 in less than two years.

that was cravath, dood - skadden's at around 75-80 or so - still, not good

Sorry, Cravath. Same difference -- my point stands.

it's not good - there's still plenty of room for those who do well at good schools - my point? don't be a fuckup in law school

There's a curve, though, coupled with the inherent unpredictability of law school grades. I imagine not everyone who fucked their grades at top schools slacked off. Your point is a valid one, though.

(Specifically: work your ass off.)

[Sell Manilla]

Rebound? We all better just hope the (new) status quo holds.

+1

Even if there IS a "rebound", it will be slooooooooooooooooooooow. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-k ... youve.html

Read that in conjunction with the low-level legal outsourcing mentioned earlier, & the fact that the legal market growth pre-ITE was already lagging the GDP growth (found the link somewhere on these forums) while the % increase of new JDs was outpacing the growth of demand for legal work etc. etc. etc.

If the legal market ever rebounds completely to pre-ITE levels, it'll prolly take >10 years.

[Anonymous User]

Rebound? We all better just hope the (new) status quo holds.

+1

Even if there IS a "rebound", it will be slooooooooooooooooooooow. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-k ... youve.html

Read that in conjunction with the low-level legal outsourcing mentioned earlier, & the fact that the legal market growth pre-ITE was already lagging the GDP growth (found the link somewhere on these forums) while the % increase of new JDs was outpacing the growth of demand for legal work etc. etc. etc.

If the legal market ever rebounds completely to ITE levels, it'll prolly take >10 years.

I think this is an overall good phenomenon cause it means more people will be forced into public interest or plantiff's work and that will have a net benefit to our society(I believe).

[Veyron]

Wasn't it widely reported that OCI offices at almost all schools claimed that biglaw SA positions were increasing this year (2010 SA hiring) from last year (2009 SA hiring)? These data clearly show otherwise.

This article-thingy represents 2009 hiring for summer of 2010. RC poned.

On an unrelated note, please G-d let it get better, pleeeeeeeeeezzzee.

[270910]

"Obviously we were in the midst of one of the greatest economic downturns in recent history last year," says Steven Sletten, chair of Gibson, Dunn's firmwide hiring committee, commenting on the decrease. "We had to make adjustments on the margin and thought it was prudent to reduce the size of the summer program somewhat." He says he does not expect the size of next year's program to be dramatically different from this year's. Latham did not return calls for comment.

Gibson was one of the largest though. The Gibsons of the world aren't the firms that we're all hoping to see increases - its more the Cravaths and Morgan Lewises (cut by 80%/100%) that we're hoping to see really pick up hiring.

Is ML even doing a program next year?

Yes. And they're doing lots of interviews at all the schools I have seen.

So... maybe they'll hire 1 person after all of that, but the signs such as we have them point to a large(ish) summer program at MLB.

---

For the record, I have seen a metric fuckton of data, and I firmly believe there will be more Class of 2012 (Summer of '11, recruiting of '10 - god this system can be hard to keep track of) offers than there were for the Class of 2011 (Summer of '10, recruiting of '09). Everyone was a little shocked to see current OCI numbers, but the actual # of interviews and # of firms hiring is up most places I look. This year will be hard as compared to the boom, but I'd bet every dollar I have it's better than last year.

This article, to repeat, does not tell us anything knew. We had and reviewed and discussed this very data when it was released months ago. We've been operating under its assumptions all along.

[romothesavior]

Rebound? We all better just hope the (new) status quo holds.

+1

Even if there IS a "rebound", it will be slooooooooooooooooooooow. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-k ... youve.html

Read that in conjunction with the low-level legal outsourcing mentioned earlier, & the fact that the legal market growth pre-ITE was already lagging the GDP growth (found the link somewhere on these forums) while the % increase of new JDs was outpacing the growth of demand for legal work etc. etc. etc.

If the legal market ever rebounds completely to ITE levels, it'll prolly take >10 years.

I think this is an overall good phenomenon cause it means more people will be forced into public interest or plantiff's work and that will have a net benefit to our society(I believe).

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

[doyleoil]

I think this is an overall good phenomenon cause it means more people will be forced into public interest or plantiff's work and that will have a net benefit to our society(I believe).

flame?

[Sell Manilla]

I think this is an overall good phenomenon cause it means more people will be forced into public interest or plantiff's work and that will have a net benefit to our society(I believe).

I'm assuming sarcasm?

[romothesavior]

For the record, I have seen a metric fuckton of data, and I firmly believe there will be more Class of 2012 (Summer of '11, recruiting of '10 - god this system can be hard to keep track of) offers than there were for the Class of 2011 (Summer of '10, recruiting of '09). Everyone was a little shocked to see current OCI numbers, but the actual # of interviews and # of firms hiring is up most places I look. This year will be hard as compared to the boom, but I'd bet every dollar I have it's better than last year.

I really hope you are right.

[romothesavior]

I think this is an overall good phenomenon cause it means more people will be forced into public interest or plantiff's work and that will have a net benefit to our society(I believe).

flame?

It is almost certainly a TLS regular posting anon to get a rise out of people. Well played, I must say.

[KibblesAndVick]

Rebound? We all better just hope the (new) status quo holds.

+1

Even if there IS a "rebound", it will be slooooooooooooooooooooow. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-k ... youve.html

Read that in conjunction with the low-level legal outsourcing mentioned earlier, & the fact that the legal market growth pre-ITE was already lagging the GDP growth (found the link somewhere on these forums) while the % increase of new JDs was outpacing the growth of demand for legal work etc. etc. etc.

If the legal market ever rebounds completely to ITE levels, it'll prolly take >10 years.

Thanks for the nightmares. I just decided that my Why___ essays are the most important thing I can write this summer.

[doyleoil]

I think this is an overall good phenomenon cause it means more people will be forced into public interest or plantiff's work and that will have a net benefit to our society(I believe).

I'm assuming sarcasm?

no, no - the world needs more people like this guy:

http://static.tvfanatic.com/images/gall ... icture.jpg