xo says oci 2010 will be worse than 2009. thoughts? Forum

[thesealocust]

tl;dr

[miamiman]

dont shoot the messenger. this is what xo says.

[rayiner]

It wasn't an ad hominem. I didn't say they were wrong bc they are mouth breathing socially inept retards, but rather simply pointed out that fact. thesealocust's point is credited. It's like the comics page of the newspaper saying the economy is poor, it's not an opinion that is going to elucidate you much regardless of what it is (unlike your thorough and supportable post, the likes of which almost never show up on XOXO).

In any case it's pointless for miamiman, a 0L to worry about it. Nobody knows what the economy will look like for 2011 OCI. All the commentary is armchair economist speculation and is of little to no value.

[Dr. Strangelove]

RisingMich3L,

I cited those forces because they were the forces xo referenced, not the ones I see as necessarily the most plausible. In my own view, I view 1 as specious for the same reasons DF points out but I can see how another market downturn, especially one that would cripple Chinese growth and, by proxy, global economic growth, would be the catalyst for a severe recession. Anything even approximating that kind of a correction would probably scare away firms from being caught again with their pants down. That said, I really don't know how firms are going to forecast for #2 given that they have to recruit a class in a few months, are not economists, and the people who are experts are torn on the issue as well. I read two things: (1) China can slow down growth if it has to (2) China is too big and too decentralized to coordinate.

If anything, I think the biggest reason firms are going to be cautious in 2010 is because the American GDP is recovering slowly, far slower than it has following prior recessions, and the lionshare of growth has come by way of government expenditure; firms also know if they understaff they can always go to a 3L OCI and/or the next class coming out of the law school pipeline.

So, I'm skeptical.

I agree with this. Given the current state of the economy, a firm would be foolish to take risks of hiring more attorneys than they can afford.

[miamiman]

RisingMich3L,

I cited those forces because they were the forces xo referenced, not the ones I see as necessarily the most plausible. In my own view, I view 1 as specious for the same reasons DF points out but I can see how another market downturn, especially one that would cripple Chinese growth and, by proxy, global economic growth, would be the catalyst for a severe recession. Anything even approximating that kind of a correction would probably scare away firms from being caught again with their pants down. That said, I really don't know how firms are going to forecast for #2 given that they have to recruit a class in a few months, are not economists, and the people who are experts are torn on the issue as well. I read two things: (1) China can slow down growth if it has to (2) China is too big and too decentralized to coordinate.

If anything, I think the biggest reason firms are going to be cautious in 2010 is because the American GDP is recovering slowly, far slower than it has following prior recessions, and the lionshare of growth has come by way of government expenditure; firms also know if they understaff they can always go to a 3L OCI and/or the next class coming out of the law school pipeline.

So, I'm skeptical.

I agree with this. Given the current state of the economy, a firm would be foolish to take risks of hiring more attorneys than they can afford.

right. the question is how many attorneys they can afford/need

[RisingMichigan3L]

It wasn't an ad hominem. I didn't say they were wrong bc they are mouth breathing socially inept retards, but rather simply pointed out that fact. thesealocust's point is credited. It's like the comics page of the newspaper saying the economy is poor, it's not an opinion that is going to elucidate you much regardless of what it is (unlike your thorough and supportable post, the likes of which almost never show up on XOXO).

OK... so your point is even more useless?

[let/them/eat/cake]

RisingMich3L,

I cited those forces because they were the forces xo referenced, not the ones I see as necessarily the most plausible. In my own view, I view 1 as specious for the same reasons DF points out but I can see how another market downturn, especially one that would cripple Chinese growth and, by proxy, global economic growth, would be the catalyst for a severe recession. Anything even approximating that kind of a correction would probably scare away firms from being caught again with their pants down. That said, I really don't know how firms are going to forecast for #2 given that they have to recruit a class in a few months, are not economists, and the people who are experts are torn on the issue as well. I read two things: (1) China can slow down growth if it has to (2) China is too big and too decentralized to coordinate.

If anything, I think the biggest reason firms are going to be cautious in 2010 is because the American GDP is recovering slowly, far slower than it has following prior recessions, and the lionshare of growth has come by way of government expenditure; firms also know if they understaff they can always go to a 3L OCI and/or the next class coming out of the law school pipeline.

So, I'm skeptical.

But nobody at firms storms into the board room going "SHIT GUYS, CHINA AND SLOW GDP GROWTH!!!! DOW UNDER 10K, PREPARE TORPEDOES AND FIRE ALL THE ASSOCIATES!!!!". If there is business, they hire people to do it. If there's not, then they don't. The calculation is going to be on a much narrower level with respect to the industries they work with and world they live in.

Yeah, if China blows up or starts looking like it will such that businesses use less legal work, hiring will go down. But for better or for worse (since clearly the housing / derivatives / etc. bubble wasn't predicted) hiring partners don't wear tinfoil hats.

hahahha +1 and well put. this is the point i was driving at earlier. anecdotally, i've heard things similar to what has been mentioned by some others re: the brisk pace of work, but that might also have something to do with the "race to the top" effect someone hypothesized earlier, a theory I find credible.

[Kobe_Teeth]

Also, its important to remember that although the legal market and financial market are intertwined they aren't the same and they run independently of each other.

Read this Above the Law post:
--LinkRemoved--

Now, it has little to do with OCI or hiring but the point is that there is about to be a ton of legal work out there and it has little to do with the state of the economy.

My point, to reiterate, the legal and financial markets are related but not synonymous.

[Cavalier]

XO also says wgwag is a huge problem, and to enjoy dla piper, beta!

[sumus romani]

1. Effects felt by firms are structural. Biglaw = broken

I keep seeing this, and I've yet to hear a persuasive argument as to how or why it's broken. Despite all it's imperfections, it's actually pretty efficient relative to many other industries out there.

2. China next bubble to burst

2010 OCI will start happening in a couple of months. Are we to expect China to implode before then?

3. Has not been a sufficiently large pickup in work to justify more staffing

Possible, but conjecture nonetheless. Also doesn't explain why more firms are signing up for OCIs than last year.

All in all, consider me less-than-persuaded.

With regard to the fact that 2010 OCI starts soon, keep in mind that a very bad scenario is across-the-board "no offers" after the SA. The goal I take it is not to get the SA, but to get the gig for at least 3 years to pay down debt. I am very sceptical of the doomsday prognostications, but a double-dip recession which occurs at any time in the next few years will hurt those who obtain SA's in 2010 OCI.

[Anonymous User]

I am summering at a V20 firm and all the partners and attorneys I spoke with say things are picking up. The attorneys say they are understaffed and overworked. Partners say more and more business keeps coming in. There is talk of more flat fee billing in the future but what they all are telling me is that business is picking up and they need to hire more people to work it. So I am hearing relatively positive things from the firm I am currently at. No one can tell the future obviously but I think this bodes well for 2010. I would be pretty shocked if oci 2010 was worse than 2009.

[rayiner]

XO also says wgwag is a huge problem, and to enjoy DLA Piper, beta!

[savagecheater]

XO also says wgwag is a huge problem, and to ENJOY DLA Piper, beta!

ftfy

[miamiman]

Earlier today xo'ers were bemoaning the state of the economy when three yls students summer at cadwalader

[FlightoftheEarls]

I am summering at a V20 firm and all the partners and attorneys I spoke with say things are picking up. The attorneys say they are understaffed and overworked. Partners say more and more business keeps coming in. There is talk of more flat fee billing in the future but what they all are telling me is that business is picking up and they need to hire more people to work it. So I am hearing relatively positive things from the firm I am currently at. No one can tell the future obviously but I think this bodes well for 2010. I would be pretty shocked if oci 2010 was worse than 2009.

Mind if we ask what market you're in?

[romothesavior]

Earlier today xo'ers were bemoaning the state of the economy when three yls students summer at cadwalader

--ImageRemoved--

[thesealocust]

edit: n/m

[miamiman]

No I get it. Cadwalader fucked over their kids last year. I'm not aloof to why xo feels how they do.

Id argue that some sa is better than no sa

[thesealocust]

edit: n/m

[miamiman]

No I get it. Cadwalader fucked over their kids last year. I'm not aloof to why xo feels how they do.

Id argue that some sa is better than no sa

...you're kind of thick.

What's your point: yls students should never have to lower themselves to cadwalader? Cadwalader should only exist to scoop up cornell grads and bls coif kids?

I'm *clearly* too thick to grasp the meta point you're arching towards

[thesealocust]

edit: n/m

[miamiman]

Bummer. I must really be missing out on some high quality lulz.

[Cavalier]

Bummer. I must really be missing out on some high quality lulz.

It's OK, at least you've caused others to experience high quality lulz by reading this topic.

[OperaSoprano]

Bummer. I must really be missing out on some high quality lulz.

It's OK, at least you've caused others to experience high quality lulz by reading this topic.

You guys have all caused me to experience not writing my note. I'm going to be working straight through til 7:59am deadline. FML.

[Anonymous User]

I am summering at a V20 firm and all the partners and attorneys I spoke with say things are picking up. The attorneys say they are understaffed and overworked. Partners say more and more business keeps coming in. There is talk of more flat fee billing in the future but what they all are telling me is that business is picking up and they need to hire more people to work it. So I am hearing relatively positive things from the firm I am currently at. No one can tell the future obviously but I think this bodes well for 2010. I would be pretty shocked if oci 2010 was worse than 2009.

Mind if we ask what market you're in?

DC