Layoff Predictions Forum

[nealric]

a small number of associates (whose termination was already "in progress", i.e. those with previous negative reviews) had also been terminated.

sounds an awful lot like stealth layoffs

I imagine a lot of firms are (or will soon be) terminating associates who have already been given "the talk." In good times they can often hang around indefinitely but not anymore.

No company lays off its top performers.

Not entirely true. Some companies have no idea who their top performers are and/or layoff entire departments without regard to performance.

[Anonymous User]

From what I know, that article is misleading. Entire "departments" refers to furloughing our catering team, etc. We had received word that we had a large number of staff layoffs and furloughs due to economic conditions, and that a small number of associates (whose termination was already "in progress", i.e. those with previous negative reviews) had also been terminated. Source: associate at the firm.

Heard from associates directly in firm that the last sentence is just gossip, runs deeper than folks with “bad reviews” etc. just a counter point to the narrative (however comforting) that they are just cutting dead weight.

I posted earlier about a (different) firm currently stealthing associates, despite telling employees that it is doing well. I think this is going to be (or is) way more common than is being reported. Also, I think what constitutes a "low performer" can be pretty surprising. Maybe some associates are truly bad, but a lot of supposed "low performers" are still good associates that perform solid work and the "mistakes" they are dinged for are not what one would normally consider a big deal, even in a high-stakes environment like biglaw. It's why intangibles like building strong connections with the right partners are so important in times like these.

[giggaman1228]

a small number of associates (whose termination was already "in progress", i.e. those with previous negative reviews) had also been terminated.

sounds an awful lot like stealth layoffs

I imagine a lot of firms are (or will soon be) terminating associates who have already been given "the talk." In good times they can often hang around indefinitely but not anymore.

No company lays off its top performers.

Not entirely true. Some companies have no idea who their top performers are and/or layoff entire departments without regard to performance.

this is true...I think of this fellow from time to time...clearly a 'top performer' --- chair of SCOTUS practice, deputy AG, deputy solicitor general, appeared numerous times before SCOTUS etc...got laid off and kills himself https://www.businessinsider.com/top-dc- ... off-2009-4

so when i said 'top performer,' perhaps I should have said, 'top performer in the eyes of the firm at that moment when considering future profits..'' ha.

Levy's suicide, discussed in that article, is a reminder for everyone in these stressful times to remember that being laid off isn't the end of the world, and that mental health is so important because depression can make you think things that objectively are warped. This guy Levy was clearly in the top 1% of 1% of all lawyers, in terms of brains and success...and yet when he got the pink slip, it triggered something very bad.

Economy will improve!

[QContinuum]

this is true...I think of this fellow from time to time...clearly a 'top performer' --- chair of SCOTUS practice, deputy AG, deputy solicitor general, appeared numerous times before SCOTUS etc...got laid off and kills himself https://www.businessinsider.com/top-dc- ... off-2009-4

so when i said 'top performer,' perhaps I should have said, 'top performer in the eyes of the firm at that moment when considering future profits..'' ha.

Levy's suicide, discussed in that article, is a reminder for everyone in these stressful times to remember that being laid off isn't the end of the world, and that mental health is so important because depression can make you think things that objectively are warped. This guy Levy was clearly in the top 1% of 1% of all lawyers, in terms of brains and success...and yet when he got the pink slip, it triggered something very bad.

All true. SCOTUS/appellate practices are typically not very profitable, or even "loss leaders". So it's not surprising that they'd be top targets for downsizing when the economy takes a dip.

The Levy suicide was clearly a very tragic case. He was 59, and had been a partner at various firms for well over a decade. Financially, he should've been in a position to take a few years' vacation traveling the world, before either retiring or getting back in the saddle once the economy improved.

[nealric]

this is true...I think of this fellow from time to time...clearly a 'top performer' --- chair of SCOTUS practice, deputy AG, deputy solicitor general, appeared numerous times before SCOTUS etc...got laid off and kills himself https://www.businessinsider.com/top-dc- ... off-2009-4

so when i said 'top performer,' perhaps I should have said, 'top performer in the eyes of the firm at that moment when considering future profits..'' ha.

Levy's suicide, discussed in that article, is a reminder for everyone in these stressful times to remember that being laid off isn't the end of the world, and that mental health is so important because depression can make you think things that objectively are warped. This guy Levy was clearly in the top 1% of 1% of all lawyers, in terms of brains and success...and yet when he got the pink slip, it triggered something very bad.

All true. SCOTUS/appellate practices are typically not very profitable, or even "loss leaders". So it's not surprising that they'd be top targets for downsizing when the economy takes a dip.

The Levy suicide was clearly a very tragic case. He was 59, and had been a partner at various firms for well over a decade. Financially, he should've been in a position to take a few years' vacation traveling the world, before either retiring or getting back in the saddle once the economy improved.

It's sort of a reminder that it really isn't about the money for most people at the top of their professions. It's more about the validation - the equivalent of the "A" student needing that constant stream of "A"s to feel good about themselves. For someone like that, being laid off is like getting an "F".

[Sporty1911]

Husch Blackwell has laid off lawyers, according to ATL (https://abovethelaw.com/2020/04/husch-layoffs/).

[Anonymous User]

This is not a prediction but an actual event: Boies Schiller has had almost their entire Los Angeles office depart (some going to another firm), and some other California partners are leaving too. After an internal firm-wide meeting, there is also word that they are soon to make a change reducing associate salaries by moving away from their former compensation system.

[Staying anon for obvious reasons.]

[Sangamon]

This is not a prediction but an actual event: Boies Schiller has had almost their entire Los Angeles office depart (some going to another firm), and some other California partners are leaving too. After an internal firm-wide meeting, there is also word that they are soon to make a change reducing associate salaries by moving away from their former compensation system.

[Staying anon for obvious reasons.]

Would surprise me if this firm survived the year. Not just due to economics.

[parkslope]

Baker Botts is the most prestigious/successful firm to announce salary reductions, right? Concerning.

[LSATWiz.com]

Not in big law but the stock market has gained back approximately 70% of its March losses over the past three and a half weeks. That may impact be a factor in why layoffs and salary reductions have stagnated.

[abcdoremi]

Baker Botts is the most prestigious/successful firm to announce salary reductions, right? Concerning.

Depending on how you measure, either Orrick, Cadwalader, or DLA Piper (sorry if I'm forgetting an obvious contender). I don't know how you would get Baker Botts unless you mean most prestigious/successful in the Texas market.

[Ultramar vistas]

Baker Botts is the most prestigious/successful firm to announce salary reductions, right? Concerning.

Depending on how you measure, either Orrick, Cadwalader, or DLA Piper (sorry if I'm forgetting an obvious contender). I don't know how you would get Baker Botts unless you mean most prestigious/successful in the Texas market.

It’s not really “prestigious” anywhere but it has that old school prestige in Texas still, in the sense that your boomer father-in-law will be more impressed that you are at Baker Botts or Andrews Kurth than Latham or Kirkland down here, because that’s what he remembers from the ‘80s. Certainly a bit of a shock to see a firm like that cut salaries, although anyone who has been watching the legal market in TX knew BB was on shaky ground lately.

[objctnyrhnr]

Baker Botts is the most prestigious/successful firm to announce salary reductions, right? Concerning.

Depending on how you measure, either Orrick, Cadwalader, or DLA Piper (sorry if I'm forgetting an obvious contender). I don't know how you would get Baker Botts unless you mean most prestigious/successful in the Texas market.

DLA piper US hasn’t cut salaries.

Also I think baker McKenzie is the answer.

[ChickenSalad]

Baker Botts is the most prestigious/successful firm to announce salary reductions, right? Concerning.

Depending on how you measure, either Orrick, Cadwalader, or DLA Piper (sorry if I'm forgetting an obvious contender). I don't know how you would get Baker Botts unless you mean most prestigious/successful in the Texas market.

DLA piper US hasn’t cut salaries.

Also I think baker McKenzie is the answer.

Agreed. Baker McKenzie is the correct “Baker”

I think the V30 (or V20 or V10) is waiting on their peer firms to blink. I’ve heard anecdotally of another V30 who had a higher revenue for March 2020 than last year. But the real measure is revenue in 2-3 months from now, when work that’s been done during the epidemic comes due for payment.

If it’s a quick recovery, then it may be a blip (comparatively). If not, who knows

[ghostoftraynor]

Baker Botts is the most prestigious/successful firm to announce salary reductions, right? Concerning.

Depending on how you measure, either Orrick, Cadwalader, or DLA Piper (sorry if I'm forgetting an obvious contender). I don't know how you would get Baker Botts unless you mean most prestigious/successful in the Texas market.

DLA piper US hasn’t cut salaries.

Also I think baker McKenzie is the answer.

Agreed. Baker McKenzie is the correct “Baker”

I think the V30 (or V20 or V10) is waiting on their peer firms to blink. I’ve heard anecdotally of another V30 who had a higher revenue for March 2020 than last year. But the real measure is revenue in 2-3 months from now, when work that’s been done during the epidemic comes due for payment.

If it’s a quick recovery, then it may be a blip (comparatively). If not, who knows

Firms that are generally collecting 2-3 months down the road aren't doing it right.

[Pneumonia]

And firms that do normally have longer collection periods are tightening their windows.

[Pomeranian]

Not in big law but the stock market has gained back approximately 70% of its March losses over the past three and a half weeks. That may impact be a factor in why layoffs and salary reductions have stagnated.

Stock market is not the economy. Who knows whether in 3 weeks the stock market retest or break below the March lows?

[wwwcol]

Baker Botts is the most prestigious/successful firm to announce salary reductions, right? Concerning.

Depending on how you measure, either Orrick, Cadwalader, or DLA Piper (sorry if I'm forgetting an obvious contender). I don't know how you would get Baker Botts unless you mean most prestigious/successful in the Texas market.

DLA piper US hasn’t cut salaries.

Also I think baker McKenzie is the answer.

Agreed. Baker McKenzie is the correct “Baker”

I think the V30 (or V20 or V10) is waiting on their peer firms to blink. I’ve heard anecdotally of another V30 who had a higher revenue for March 2020 than last year. But the real measure is revenue in 2-3 months from now, when work that’s been done during the epidemic comes due for payment.

If it’s a quick recovery, then it may be a blip (comparatively). If not, who knows

Firms that are generally collecting 2-3 months down the road aren't doing it right.

Do you think most clients get their bill and happily pay the next day, especially in these times and especially in affected industries?

[Joachim2017]

Baker Botts is the most prestigious/successful firm to announce salary reductions, right? Concerning.

Depending on how you measure, either Orrick, Cadwalader, or DLA Piper (sorry if I'm forgetting an obvious contender). I don't know how you would get Baker Botts unless you mean most prestigious/successful in the Texas market.

DLA piper US hasn’t cut salaries.

Also I think baker McKenzie is the answer.

Agreed. Baker McKenzie is the correct “Baker”

I think the V30 (or V20 or V10) is waiting on their peer firms to blink. I’ve heard anecdotally of another V30 who had a higher revenue for March 2020 than last year. But the real measure is revenue in 2-3 months from now, when work that’s been done during the epidemic comes due for payment.

If it’s a quick recovery, then it may be a blip (comparatively). If not, who knows

Firms that are generally collecting 2-3 months down the road aren't doing it right.

You don't seem to know how the real world works. 2-3 months down the road is not abnormal, even when you're a V10 with clients who are hedge funds, banks, and from the Fortune 100.

[wwwcol]

Baker Botts is the most prestigious/successful firm to announce salary reductions, right? Concerning.

Depending on how you measure, either Orrick, Cadwalader, or DLA Piper (sorry if I'm forgetting an obvious contender). I don't know how you would get Baker Botts unless you mean most prestigious/successful in the Texas market.

DLA piper US hasn’t cut salaries.

Also I think baker McKenzie is the answer.

Agreed. Baker McKenzie is the correct “Baker”

I think the V30 (or V20 or V10) is waiting on their peer firms to blink. I’ve heard anecdotally of another V30 who had a higher revenue for March 2020 than last year. But the real measure is revenue in 2-3 months from now, when work that’s been done during the epidemic comes due for payment.

If it’s a quick recovery, then it may be a blip (comparatively). If not, who knows

Firms that are generally collecting 2-3 months down the road aren't doing it right.

You don't seem to know how the real world works. 2-3 months down the road is not abnormal, even when you're a V10 with clients who are hedge funds, banks, and from the Fortune 100.

There are literally dozens of F100 companies who have policies of not paying for up to 60 days. And a lot have extended to 90–120 this month bc of the pandemic. You can be damn sure realization will be down bc they’re going thru everything w a fine tooth comb and negotiating additional discoubts

[ghostoftraynor]

Baker Botts is the most prestigious/successful firm to announce salary reductions, right? Concerning.

Depending on how you measure, either Orrick, Cadwalader, or DLA Piper (sorry if I'm forgetting an obvious contender). I don't know how you would get Baker Botts unless you mean most prestigious/successful in the Texas market.

DLA piper US hasn’t cut salaries.

Also I think baker McKenzie is the answer.

Agreed. Baker McKenzie is the correct “Baker”

I think the V30 (or V20 or V10) is waiting on their peer firms to blink. I’ve heard anecdotally of another V30 who had a higher revenue for March 2020 than last year. But the real measure is revenue in 2-3 months from now, when work that’s been done during the epidemic comes due for payment.

If it’s a quick recovery, then it may be a blip (comparatively). If not, who knows

Firms that are generally collecting 2-3 months down the road aren't doing it right.

You don't seem to know how the real world works. 2-3 months down the road is not abnormal, even when you're a V10 with clients who are hedge funds, banks, and from the Fortune 100.

Yea, I deal with invoices quite a lot, so am pretty familiar with how it works.

[LHand1993]

Not in big law but the stock market has gained back approximately 70% of its March losses over the past three and a half weeks. That may impact be a factor in why layoffs and salary reductions have stagnated.

Oil is basically worthless, there's warning signs that food supply chains are going to face significant disruption in the coming weeks, April 30th is coming up and nobody has an answer for what's going to happen when rent is due and nobody can pay. And yet the market is going up up up! Oil stocks(!) are actually up in the past week or so. The market doesn't reflect reality--especially when the fed is printing unlimited sums of cash to help prop it up.

[JusticeSquee]

Not in big law but the stock market has gained back approximately 70% of its March losses over the past three and a half weeks. That may impact be a factor in why layoffs and salary reductions have stagnated.

Oil is basically worthless, there's warning signs that food supply chains are going to face significant disruption in the coming weeks, April 30th is coming up and nobody has an answer for what's going to happen when rent is due and nobody can pay. And yet the market is going up up up! Oil stocks(!) are actually up in the past week or so. The market doesn't reflect reality--especially when the fed is printing unlimited sums of cash to help prop it up.

The bolded is unfounded and baseless speculation, love it.

[LHand1993]

Not in big law but the stock market has gained back approximately 70% of its March losses over the past three and a half weeks. That may impact be a factor in why layoffs and salary reductions have stagnated.

Oil is basically worthless, there's warning signs that food supply chains are going to face significant disruption in the coming weeks, April 30th is coming up and nobody has an answer for what's going to happen when rent is due and nobody can pay. And yet the market is going up up up! Oil stocks(!) are actually up in the past week or so. The market doesn't reflect reality--especially when the fed is printing unlimited sums of cash to help prop it up.

The bolded is unfounded and baseless speculation, love it.

"Piglets aborted, chickens gassed as pandemic slams meat sector"
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/27/piglets ... ector.html

"'The food supply chain is breaking,' Tyson says as plants close"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/26/business ... index.html

"Groceries could see meat shortages by end of week amid plant closings"
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/gr ... s-n1193401

Americans on Cusp of Meat Shortage With Food Chain Breaking Down
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ed-to-cull

What?

[nealric]

Not in big law but the stock market has gained back approximately 70% of its March losses over the past three and a half weeks. That may impact be a factor in why layoffs and salary reductions have stagnated.

Oil is basically worthless, there's warning signs that food supply chains are going to face significant disruption in the coming weeks, April 30th is coming up and nobody has an answer for what's going to happen when rent is due and nobody can pay. And yet the market is going up up up! Oil stocks(!) are actually up in the past week or so. The market doesn't reflect reality--especially when the fed is printing unlimited sums of cash to help prop it up.

I don't pretend to have a mind meld with the market, but there is some logic as to why oil stocks have gone up. In a $25 price environment, most producers will continue to pump. This results in a slow bleed and a continuing glut. In a negative price environment, you get mass shut-ins of wells. Shut-ins can permanently damage production capacity of a field. Most stripper wells (low producing wells) that make up around 10% of U.S. production capacity will never return to production once shut. All that means that if demand returns, you could actually see a supply shock and really high prices once the storage glut has been cleared. Not that it necessarily WILL happen, but I think the market sees that as a potential outcome. Also keep in mind that many energy stocks are still down around 75% compared to this time last year- they were already far harder hit than the broader market, so the current bump is a long ways from a recovery.