Layoff Predictions Forum

[objctnyrhnr]

I believe this is the proper thread for this comment. My firm’s transactional group has slowed considerably. I have had under 10 hours of work each of the past 2 weeks, and relatively slow even before then. This week I was asked to take a secondment at a large client, in a field in which I do not practice. I am a 4/5 year associate. My firm treats associates well, and fairly, and I very strongly suspect this secondment is in lieu of simply letting me go.

Has anyone else experienced something similar over the past month? Is this the beginning of the long kiss goodbye for me?

So I’m not in corporate and therefore lack experience with secondments. That being said, common wisdom is that a secondment to an important client is somewhat of an indicator that they view you as pretty competent.

[trebekismyhero]

I believe this is the proper thread for this comment. My firm’s transactional group has slowed considerably. I have had under 10 hours of work each of the past 2 weeks, and relatively slow even before then. This week I was asked to take a secondment at a large client, in a field in which I do not practice. I am a 4/5 year associate. My firm treats associates well, and fairly, and I very strongly suspect this secondment is in lieu of simply letting me go.

Has anyone else experienced something similar over the past month? Is this the beginning of the long kiss goodbye for me?

It might be, but it also just could be a way of getting some value from you by keeping a client happy since you're slow and until things pick back up. I think this is definitely a better move than just billing nothing for the next couple months because then you wouldn't get along kiss goodbye, you would be getting the boot pretty quickly. Just make the most of the secondment and make some good connections at the client.

[Wild Card]

I believe this is the proper thread for this comment. My firm’s transactional group has slowed considerably. I have had under 10 hours of work each of the past 2 weeks, and relatively slow even before then. This week I was asked to take a secondment at a large client, in a field in which I do not practice. I am a 4/5 year associate. My firm treats associates well, and fairly, and I very strongly suspect this secondment is in lieu of simply letting me go.

Has anyone else experienced something similar over the past month? Is this the beginning of the long kiss goodbye for me?

Do you work at Shearman? I hear that this is their practice in the ordinary course.

[LaLiLuLeLo]

I believe this is the proper thread for this comment. My firm’s transactional group has slowed considerably. I have had under 10 hours of work each of the past 2 weeks, and relatively slow even before then. This week I was asked to take a secondment at a large client, in a field in which I do not practice. I am a 4/5 year associate. My firm treats associates well, and fairly, and I very strongly suspect this secondment is in lieu of simply letting me go.

Has anyone else experienced something similar over the past month? Is this the beginning of the long kiss goodbye for me?

So I’m not in corporate and therefore lack experience with secondments. That being said, common wisdom is that a secondment to an important client is somewhat of an indicator that they view you as pretty competent.

Though it’s less common, it can work the opposite way. I know associates who were chosen for secondments because they were viewed as expendable (i.e. partners were willing to give them up). It actually causes a lot of drama because as you can imagine, associates usually covet a secondment.

[Yugihoe]

I believe this is the proper thread for this comment. My firm’s transactional group has slowed considerably. I have had under 10 hours of work each of the past 2 weeks, and relatively slow even before then. This week I was asked to take a secondment at a large client, in a field in which I do not practice. I am a 4/5 year associate. My firm treats associates well, and fairly, and I very strongly suspect this secondment is in lieu of simply letting me go.

Has anyone else experienced something similar over the past month? Is this the beginning of the long kiss goodbye for me?

It might be, but it also just could be a way of getting some value from you by keeping a client happy since you're slow and until things pick back up. I think this is definitely a better move than just billing nothing for the next couple months because then you wouldn't get along kiss goodbye, you would be getting the boot pretty quickly. Just make the most of the secondment and make some good connections at the client.

Agree with this and you should see it as a blessing. The secondment is probably at least 6 months right? They are not going to piss of a client during that period by making any changes to your status of employment. That's better than billing shit at the firm for the next 3 months, particularly as firms are looking at potentially cutting staff. Build connections at the client while you're there. In any case, if you ever wanted to go in-house it will be good experience and maybe employment will pick up in the next year (either to get a new firm job, another in-house job or come back to your firm).

[Anonymous User]

I believe this is the proper thread for this comment. My firm’s transactional group has slowed considerably. I have had under 10 hours of work each of the past 2 weeks, and relatively slow even before then. This week I was asked to take a secondment at a large client, in a field in which I do not practice. I am a 4/5 year associate. My firm treats associates well, and fairly, and I very strongly suspect this secondment is in lieu of simply letting me go.

Has anyone else experienced something similar over the past month? Is this the beginning of the long kiss goodbye for me?

So I’m not in corporate and therefore lack experience with secondments. That being said, common wisdom is that a secondment to an important client is somewhat of an indicator that they view you as pretty competent.

Though it’s less common, it can work the opposite way. I know associates who were chosen for secondments because they were viewed as expendable (i.e. partners were willing to give them up). It actually causes a lot of drama because as you can imagine, associates usually covet a secondment.

I appreciate the quick and insightful responses. For more context, my review this year was good, zero negative, but pretty cookie-cutter positive. I appraise myself as viewed as competent, but also somewhat expendable, if that makes sense. My work is fine but I do not seem to be particularly needed. But why secónd me in an area in which I have never practiced? Because I won’t totally screw it up and better than firing me?

FWIW, I do have an in-house offer in hand that pays 30% less base but is close with expected bonus. Industry/company that will (almost) definitely survive a recession or a depression. Wasn’t planning to jump a month ago but now strongly considering just taking it. Particularly since I can’t expect my firm to give me a bonus with around 1500 in billables. Then again if depression comes, in-house bonus is likely out the window too.

[Anonymous User]

I believe this is the proper thread for this comment. My firm’s transactional group has slowed considerably. I have had under 10 hours of work each of the past 2 weeks, and relatively slow even before then. This week I was asked to take a secondment at a large client, in a field in which I do not practice. I am a 4/5 year associate. My firm treats associates well, and fairly, and I very strongly suspect this secondment is in lieu of simply letting me go.

Has anyone else experienced something similar over the past month? Is this the beginning of the long kiss goodbye for me?

It might be, but it also just could be a way of getting some value from you by keeping a client happy since you're slow and until things pick back up. I think this is definitely a better move than just billing nothing for the next couple months because then you wouldn't get along kiss goodbye, you would be getting the boot pretty quickly. Just make the most of the secondment and make some good connections at the client.

Agree with this and you should see it as a blessing. The secondment is probably at least 6 months right? They are not going to piss of a client during that period by making any changes to your status of employment. That's better than billing shit at the firm for the next 3 months, particularly as firms are looking at potentially cutting staff. Build connections at the client while you're there. In any case, if you ever wanted to go in-house it will be good experience and maybe employment will pick up in the next year (either to get a new firm job, another in-house job or come back to your firm).

3 months.

[Anonymous User]

[deleted]

[QContinuum]

For some reason, this thread seems to keep getting derailed.

Moderator hat on
PSA: No more layoffslayoffs trolling in this thread. That trolling has been moved to a new Lounge quarantine thread - http://www.top-law-schools.com/forums/v ... 0&t=305084

Any further derailing of this thread by layoffslayoffs (or any copycats) will result in warnings and/or bans, as warranted. Feel free to continue the trolling/debate in the Lounge thread, but not in this thread, which should remain focused on layoff news and predictions, not on the value of senior associates.
Moderator hat off

[objctnyrhnr]

For some reason, this thread seems to keep getting derailed.

Moderator hat on
PSA: No more layoffslayoffs trolling in this thread. That trolling has been moved to a new Lounge quarantine thread - http://www.top-law-schools.com/forums/v ... 0&t=305084

Any further derailing of this thread by layoffslayoffs (or any copycats) will result in warnings and/or bans, as warranted. Feel free to continue the trolling/debate in the Lounge thread, but not in this thread, which should remain focused on layoff news and predictions, not on the value of senior associates.
Moderator hat off

Love it when you bring that mod hammer down haha

[nealric]

For some reason, this thread seems to keep getting derailed.

Moderator hat on
PSA: No more layoffslayoffs trolling in this thread. That trolling has been moved to a new Lounge quarantine thread - http://www.top-law-schools.com/forums/v ... 0&t=305084

Any further derailing of this thread by layoffslayoffs (or any copycats) will result in warnings and/or bans, as warranted. Feel free to continue the trolling/debate in the Lounge thread, but not in this thread, which should remain focused on layoff news and predictions, not on the value of senior associates.
Moderator hat off

By the way, I went ahead and banned layoffslayoffs after (s)he decided to attack the moderators directly. It's fine to express pessimistic viewpoints, but the posts went way off the rails.

[QContinuum]

By the way, I went ahead and banned layoffslayoffs after (s)he decided to attack the moderators directly. It's fine to express pessimistic viewpoints, but the posts went way off the rails.

Thanks, neal, for doing the dirty work of getting rid of that troll!

[Sangamon]

One prediction:

Covid will be the outside influence that will cause what probably should've happened long ago: a fragmentation in which firms pay "market". I suspect the firms that lower salaries now will not ever go back up.

I never understood how or why a firm that has a rate structure as much as 35-50% lower than others would compensate the majority of their workforce at the same level.

[trebekismyhero]

One prediction:

Covid will be the outside influence that will cause what probably should've happened long ago: a fragmentation in which firms pay "market". I suspect the firms that lower salaries now will not ever go back up.

I never understood how or why a firm that has a rate structure as much as 35-50% lower than others would compensate the majority of their workforce at the same level.

I do think you're generally correct. Although a lot of the firms that are lowering comp don't actually pay "market" now. A lot of firms play the $190k market game to be attractive at OCI and then compress salaries instead of paying Cravath scale. We'll see if in a couple years those firms even try to play that game

[nealric]

One prediction:

Covid will be the outside influence that will cause what probably should've happened long ago: a fragmentation in which firms pay "market". I suspect the firms that lower salaries now will not ever go back up.

I never understood how or why a firm that has a rate structure as much as 35-50% lower than others would compensate the majority of their workforce at the same level.

I disagree that firms lowering salaries now will never go back up. If the economy improves, they will at least go back to where they were. Some firms cut during the great recession, and none kept salaries at the reduced level. Many did "true up" bonuses after the recovery.

That being said, there has already been a fragmentation of firm's paying "market." That headline number is often only for certain offices (often just NYC, which may be a relatively small office for the firm), and the "market" pay structure often only exists for first years. Afterwards, these firms go to tiered, black box, or other below market compensation. Moreover, bonus targets are often set so fewer than 50% actually get the "market" bonus (as opposed to all associates in good standing at top firms). So they overpay first years as a way of getting talent in the door. Firms like that tend to be less leveraged, so first years represent a smaller portion of their associate base- it's a bit less costly than might be assumed.

[Trout et al]

AM Law 200 firm Schiff Hardin has cut associate salaries by 50% for some practice areas base on anticipated demand. Any speculation on what those groups could be?

[trebekismyhero]

AM Law 200 firm Schiff Hardin has cut associate salaries by 50% for some practice areas base on anticipated demand. Any speculation on what those groups could be?

I don't see how that is a good move for a sense of community in associate ranks. Just cut everyone the same amount and in busy practice areas true them up with bonuses. They said 6% would have pay cut by 50%. So probably not M&A or bigger group.

[objctnyrhnr]

AM Law 200 firm Schiff Hardin has cut associate salaries by 50% for some practice areas base on anticipated demand. Any speculation on what those groups could be?

I was the poster who said a while back that the salary cuts (as opposed to layoffs) are typically for PR purposes.

I do think that cutting salaries by FIFTY percent for only SOME associates isn’t necessarily better than just targeted layoffs for “lowest performing associates” (I know that’ll trigger some) in suffering groups.

Thoughts on this?

On a related point, I’m wondering why voluntary furloughs with good stipends and/or voluntary hours redux and corresponding pay cut isn’t more popular With these firms. I think one of the magic circle firms did it, but that’s it. Seems that this would cause less of a PR hit even than 25% salary cuts.

[Anonymous User]

Not a V100, but any news on Seward & Kissel? Layoffs?

[trebekismyhero]

AM Law 200 firm Schiff Hardin has cut associate salaries by 50% for some practice areas base on anticipated demand. Any speculation on what those groups could be?

I was the poster who said a while back that the salary cuts (as opposed to layoffs) are typically for PR purposes.

I do think that cutting salaries by FIFTY percent for only SOME associates isn’t necessarily better than just targeted layoffs for “lowest performing associates” (I know that’ll trigger some) in suffering groups.

Thoughts on this?

On a related point, I’m wondering why voluntary furloughs with good stipends and/or voluntary hours redux and corresponding pay cut isn’t more popular With these firms. I think one of the magic circle firms did it, but that’s it. Seems that this would cause less of a PR hit even than 25% salary cuts.

As I mentioned just above you, I agree cutting salaries that much for some associates seems like bad internal policy and probably PR as well. I also agree that voluntary furloughs would seem to be a better move. I was a mid-level corp associate before going in-house and I would jump at a 12 month furlough at like 40-50% salary with benefits rather than be paranoid that I might get the ax any day. But maybe there aren't enough to make it worthwhile

[2020Graduate]

Why is Norton Rose so bad?

No offering summers in 2017 and 2018. In 2020, cutting salaries and laying off associates and staff: https://abovethelaw.com/2020/04/norton- ... -upheaval/. Praying their summers don't see 2017 and 2018 again. Doubtful if the 2019 100% offer rates are real.

[Sangamon]

One prediction:

Covid will be the outside influence that will cause what probably should've happened long ago: a fragmentation in which firms pay "market". I suspect the firms that lower salaries now will not ever go back up.

I never understood how or why a firm that has a rate structure as much as 35-50% lower than others would compensate the majority of their workforce at the same level.

I disagree that firms lowering salaries now will never go back up. If the economy improves, they will at least go back to where they were. Some firms cut during the great recession, and none kept salaries at the reduced level. Many did "true up" bonuses after the recovery.

That being said, there has already been a fragmentation of firm's paying "market." That headline number is often only for certain offices (often just NYC, which may be a relatively small office for the firm), and the "market" pay structure often only exists for first years. Afterwards, these firms go to tiered, black box, or other below market compensation. Moreover, bonus targets are often set so fewer than 50% actually get the "market" bonus (as opposed to all associates in good standing at top firms). So they overpay first years as a way of getting talent in the door. Firms like that tend to be less leveraged, so first years represent a smaller portion of their associate base- it's a bit less costly than might be assumed.

I don't recall any firms lowering associate salaries across the board during the 08/09 recession. Many lowered bonuses. Some lowered associate salaries for those under an hours threshold. I don't recall seeing an across the board salary hit at any large law firm.

[nealric]

One prediction:

Covid will be the outside influence that will cause what probably should've happened long ago: a fragmentation in which firms pay "market". I suspect the firms that lower salaries now will not ever go back up.

I never understood how or why a firm that has a rate structure as much as 35-50% lower than others would compensate the majority of their workforce at the same level.

I disagree that firms lowering salaries now will never go back up. If the economy improves, they will at least go back to where they were. Some firms cut during the great recession, and none kept salaries at the reduced level. Many did "true up" bonuses after the recovery.

That being said, there has already been a fragmentation of firm's paying "market." That headline number is often only for certain offices (often just NYC, which may be a relatively small office for the firm), and the "market" pay structure often only exists for first years. Afterwards, these firms go to tiered, black box, or other below market compensation. Moreover, bonus targets are often set so fewer than 50% actually get the "market" bonus (as opposed to all associates in good standing at top firms). So they overpay first years as a way of getting talent in the door. Firms like that tend to be less leveraged, so first years represent a smaller portion of their associate base- it's a bit less costly than might be assumed.

I don't recall any firms lowering associate salaries across the board during the 08/09 recession. Many lowered bonuses. Some lowered associate salaries for those under an hours threshold. I don't recall seeing an across the board salary hit at any large law firm.

Some articles from the time:

https://abovethelaw.com/salary-cuts/

I don't think any firm did an across the board "everyone's salary is cut by 15%" type thing, but there were cuts, especially in certain offices like Charlotte, NC.

[jarofsoup]

If you are in a busy practice like bankruptcy and your firm cut your salary would you leave?

I would but my concern is that the firm I would go to would also cut.

[Anonymous User]

If you are in a busy practice like bankruptcy and your firm cut your salary would you leave?

I would but my concern is that the firm I would go to would also cut.

I’ve actually thought about this a lot. I’ve been applying to see what I can get. I’m at a firm that cut, so I’m really only focusing on firms that probably won’t cut (v20 or so). Obviously there’s the risk that the firm may cut, but a potential cut is better than one that has already been implemented for the foreseeable future.