NY GOES TO 180k! IT HAPPENED!!!! (CovingTTTon does a 180! Holder wept.) Forum

[Big Shrimpin]

let's discuss something that's actually going to happen

when do we think bonus announcements will be

i feel like this is different every ear but starts around now-ish

[rpupkin]

let's discuss something that's actually going to happen

It's ban time.

[fats provolone]

DPW leads the way with $10k bonuses for second years, all first years fired

[Old Gregg]

was at a gc dinner and a partner of a V50 was sitting right next to me (coincidentally, partner and i knew each other previously as I had interviewed with him in the past, so our relationship was already pretty slapstick and informal). we were joking around and had i good conversation going.

i then told him "so i hear salaries are going up for associates..."

he immediately turned his head and started talking to the person across the table.

we later continued to talk, but no comment or reference to my salary floater.

[fats provolone]

was at a gc dinner and a partner of a V50 was sitting right next to me (coincidentally, partner and i knew each other previously as I had interviewed with him in the past, so our relationship was already pretty slapstick and informal). we were joking around and had i good conversation going.

i then told him "so i hear salaries are going up for associates..."

he immediately turned his head and started talking to the person across the table.

we later continued to talk, but no comment or reference to my salary floater.

in other words, 190% confirmed

[Big Shrimpin]

DPW leads the way with $10k bonuses for second years, all first years fired

yeh that, and for addl PPP maxing:

3rd-6th get 15K + coupon book to local rub and tug joint but billable HARD FLOOR minimum goes up to 2400hrs

7th-up have cagematch for BREAKFAST

[anonnymouse]

let's discuss something that's actually going to happen

when do we think bonus announcements will be

i feel like this is different every ear but starts around now-ish

The earlier the better.

If announced b/t now and Nov 23rd, DPW 2014 scale.

If b/t Nov 23rd and Dec 1, original STB 2014 scale.

If after Dec 1, all bets are off and Cravath leads with SPS 2012 scale.

Kirkland will have a handful of high-billers that get 1.75x but most associates' dreams will be SHATTERED with 1.25x. Quinn will pay market at 2100, extra $5k at 2500, extra $10k at 2900 (LJL). Boies will have one mid-level associate who clears 7 figs all-in. Susman will have 100% bonuses (a la Wachtell) but the hours minimum to be bonus eligible will be 3000 (but every Susman associate will have passed 3000 by the time ATL breaks the first bonus announcement).

If this were a pool, I would pick Nov 23.

[smaug]

Are we betting on what the bonus scale would be? Is do a tar bet if we did it right.

[fats provolone]

Same as last yr

[2014]

It won't go down from last year, M&A has been too busy this year. I'd bet on a Cravath announcement next Friday raising bonuses from last year marginally followed by an awkward two weeks where everyone waits for DPW to avoid last year's shit show. DPW then matches and that's the end of it.

[orangecup]

Same as last yr

[fats provolone]

handful of firms will beat by like $5k and call themselves market shattering

[anonnymouse]

It won't go down from last year, M&A has been too busy this year. I'd bet on a Cravath announcement next Friday raising bonuses from last year marginally followed by an awkward two weeks where everyone waits for DPW to avoid last year's shit show. DPW then matches and that's the end of it.

You think bonuses actually correlate to deal flow? My sense is that they correlate to laterals/departures. I feel like this year was not as hot for laterals. Could definitely be that deal flow and laterals are cofactors colinear, of course.

[Anonymous User]

It won't go down from last year, M&A has been too busy this year. I'd bet on a Cravath announcement next Friday raising bonuses from last year marginally followed by an awkward two weeks where everyone waits for DPW to avoid last year's shit show. DPW then matches and that's the end of it.

You think bonuses actually correlate to deal flow? My sense is that they correlate to laterals/departures. I feel like this year was not as hot for laterals. Could definitely be that deal flow and laterals are cofactors colinear, of course.

It's both (supply of associates and anticipated demand for work). Also, lateral departures have a somewhat cumulative effect. At my firm, there is such a dearth of midlevels and senior associates it's not even funny. We are having serious issues w/r/t getting things done on time and have been turning down work because there is just so little bandwidth. It is widely known and partners are expressing their frustration at the lack of 4-7th years. We usually do not take on laterals but in the last 18 months have taken on more then ever. We have also been taking on associates from firms further down the line than normal. The problem is, a lot of lateral hires do not work out, especially when they a hired into a firm with way too much work.

I would not be surprised to see bonuses go up, especially for mid-senior associates. I also would not be surprised to see some salary movement from the top 20 or so firms with the hope that less profitable firms are not able to keep up.

[fats provolone]

It is widely known and partners are expressing their frustration at the lack of 4-7th years.

lololololol

[fats provolone]

"these lazy millennials don't understand the value of hard work, commitment, and loyalty!"

(hasn't made a homegrown partner in 10 years)

[gk101]

It is widely known and partners are expressing their frustration at the lack of 4-7th years.

lololololol

[2014]

It won't go down from last year, M&A has been too busy this year. I'd bet on a Cravath announcement next Friday raising bonuses from last year marginally followed by an awkward two weeks where everyone waits for DPW to avoid last year's shit show. DPW then matches and that's the end of it.

You think bonuses actually correlate to deal flow? My sense is that they correlate to laterals/departures. I feel like this year was not as hot for laterals. Could definitely be that deal flow and laterals are cofactors colinear, of course.

In a backward way yes. I think the main motivation for bonuses is retention, which is tied to satisfaction, which is a product of mostly hours/culture but also profitability. Basically if firm profits go up and associates get no additional cut, they are irritated and are marginally more likely to bounce. Profitability and hours should be strongly correlated too because of the billable hour system.

So that all being said, M&A volume is a great proxy for firm profitability meaning both hours and potential butthurt at perceived low bonuses should be higher than last year. If I were to guess I'd say first and second years get a 5k increase and 3rd and up get 10.

[jbagelboy]

It won't go down from last year, M&A has been too busy this year. I'd bet on a Cravath announcement next Friday raising bonuses from last year marginally followed by an awkward two weeks where everyone waits for DPW to avoid last year's shit show. DPW then matches and that's the end of it.

Cravath isn't likely to be the first to raise. They'll just match whoever else comes out with the highest bonus.
Prolly S&C if it's happening, or DPW if one of its peers posts up last year's rate

[Anonymous User]

Anyone know if #20 White & Case will match if the V10 firms go to 190k? I'm guessing 50-75% likelihood but hopefully it's higher.

[2014]

It won't go down from last year, M&A has been too busy this year. I'd bet on a Cravath announcement next Friday raising bonuses from last year marginally followed by an awkward two weeks where everyone waits for DPW to avoid last year's shit show. DPW then matches and that's the end of it.

Cravath isn't likely to be the first to raise. They'll just match whoever else comes out with the highest bonus.
Prolly S&C if it's happening, or DPW if one of its peers posts up last year's rate

Idk it kind of depends on how irritated Cravath was that they got upended as market setter last year. I think you could cogently argue either that they don't care because they are Cravath or they were super pissed off because they are Cravath.

Anyone know if #20 White & Case will match if the V10 firms go to 190k? I'm guessing 50-75% likelihood but hopefully it's higher.

I'd be really surprised if they didn't match at least in NY but I'm just basing that off of how quick they usually are to match market bonuses.

[Danger Zone]

Mods please rename this thread NY to 190k support group

I think we're getting some earnest true believers in here and that bums me out.

[Anonymous User]

It won't go down from last year, M&A has been too busy this year. I'd bet on a Cravath announcement next Friday raising bonuses from last year marginally followed by an awkward two weeks where everyone waits for DPW to avoid last year's shit show. DPW then matches and that's the end of it.

You think bonuses actually correlate to deal flow? My sense is that they correlate to laterals/departures. I feel like this year was not as hot for laterals. Could definitely be that deal flow and laterals are cofactors colinear, of course.

In a backward way yes. I think the main motivation for bonuses is retention, which is tied to satisfaction, which is a product of mostly hours/culture but also profitability. Basically if firm profits go up and associates get no additional cut, they are irritated and are marginally more likely to bounce. Profitability and hours should be strongly correlated too because of the billable hour system.

So that all being said, M&A volume is a great proxy for firm profitability meaning both hours and potential butthurt at perceived low bonuses should be higher than last year. If I were to guess I'd say first and second years get a 5k increase and 3rd and up get 10.

The one caveat to all this is that the higher you go, the larger the bonus needed to convince you to stay, assuming the person knows they arent going to make partner. The relative value of "one more year" decreases as you go higher up, since the career/experience benefits taper off. This is also impacted by other developments (i.e. kids).

So in a normal market (which I consider this to be) we're not talking 10 or 15k to convince a lot of seniors to stay, more like high-five figure increases for years 5-8. Of course, a senior making all in comp of 450 or 500k is not very different from junior partners at a lot of firms.

[smaug]

Tar bet that bonuses are same or lower than last year's.

Any takers? We could set up a rotation where someone else chooses my tar for multiple months if we have a few.

[TLSModBot]

Tar bet that bonuses are same or lower than last year's.

Any takers? We could set up a rotation where someone else chooses my tar for multiple months if we have a few.

I'll take that bet.