How to interpret law school predictor calculators? Forum

[footballlax55]

Hey guys, I know that when you input your GPA and LSAT into an online predictor and they return like x% for this school and y% for that school they're looking at the applicants who had the same stats and calculating how many of those people were accepted and how many were not.
(im using the lawschoolpredictor.com one)


I have a few questions though:

How closely should I interpret these stats to mean "x% chance of getting accepted", rather than just "x% of the applicants with my scores got accepted?" I'd like to think my softs are above average for K-JD law school applicants, and slightly above average for K-JD applicants who are applying to the same type of schools as me.

If I don't check a box that I'm a URM, and it says oh 25% or something, should I take it to mean 25% chance? Or less than 25% because that doesn't factor in that some of those who got accepted were URM?

Lastly, when trying to figure out my chances at at least one of the schools I apply to, would it make sense to just calculate it out as if it were a stats problem? Like if I has a 30% chance at 5 schools I apply to, wouldn't that mean 70% chance at not getting accepted, so (.70)^5= .168 . And then 1-.168 = 83.1% chance I'd get into one of the schools?

(Idk, I've never taken a stats class, nor do I know how these calculator/predictors play into real life)

[benwyatt]

Post removed.

[footballlax55]

I'm not going to answer your questions because you're using a bad predictor.

Use this one: mylsn.info/r/pre-law/admissions/search/

The percentages here are percentage of applicants (with profiles on lawschoolnumbers) who were accepted.

Are you able to answer my question in how far of a stretch is it to consider the % of people accepted with similar stats to be my % chance of getting accepted?
And my whole figuring out my chance of getting into at least one school?

[Sweetneers]

I'm not going to answer your questions because you're using a bad predictor.

Use this one: mylsn.info/r/pre-law/admissions/search/

The percentages here are percentage of applicants (with profiles on lawschoolnumbers) who were accepted.

Are you able to answer my question in how far of a stretch is it to consider the % of people accepted with similar stats to be my % chance of getting accepted?
And my whole figuring out my chance of getting into at least one school?

Generally, you can take it to mean that, but remember that those people have their own softs, personal statement, LoRs, and unfortunately, connections.

Just take it with a gain of salt, people with worse numbers than you might get in, and you might not. Anything can happen.

[GMW77]

"Like if I has a 30% chance at 5 schools I apply to, wouldn't that mean 70% chance at not getting accepted, so (.70)^5= .168 . And then 1-.168 = 83.1% chance I'd get into one of the schools"

-- As a statistics major, I'm pretty sure this is a wrong conclusion, because Rule of Multiplication only applies to independent events. But getting into each of these 5 schools are obviously not 5 independent events, since one factor affecting your chance of admission at one school (a weak PS, for example) will also affect your chance at another school. In the case of dependent events, you want to use P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B|A), meaning that the chance of rejecting by both A and B equals to the chance of being rejected by A multiplied by the chance of being rejected by B given the hypothetical scenario that you are rejected by A. However, it's almost impossible to know P(B|A) without building a statistical model. Therefore, I suggest you not to interpret the data this way.

Hey guys, I know that when you input your GPA and LSAT into an online predictor and they return like x% for this school and y% for that school they're looking at the applicants who had the same stats and calculating how many of those people were accepted and how many were not.
(im using the lawschoolpredictor.com one)


I have a few questions though:

How closely should I interpret these stats to mean "x% chance of getting accepted", rather than just "x% of the applicants with my scores got accepted?" I'd like to think my softs are above average for K-JD law school applicants, and slightly above average for K-JD applicants who are applying to the same type of schools as me.

If I don't check a box that I'm a URM, and it says oh 25% or something, should I take it to mean 25% chance? Or less than 25% because that doesn't factor in that some of those who got accepted were URM?

Lastly, when trying to figure out my chances at at least one of the schools I apply to, would it make sense to just calculate it out as if it were a stats problem? Like if I has a 30% chance at 5 schools I apply to, wouldn't that mean 70% chance at not getting accepted, so (.70)^5= .168 . And then 1-.168 = 83.1% chance I'd get into one of the schools?

(Idk, I've never taken a stats class, nor do I know how these calculator/predictors play into real life)