T14 and 170+ Forum

[PeanutsNJam]

So, according to the medians thread, there were 4,286 students admitted in the T14 for class of 2016.

I'm not sure if it's always this way, but in my administration of 2012, 170 was 97th percentile. That means 3% of test takers scored 170 or higher. There were 112,515 test takers total. That leaves ~3,375 test takers who scored 170 or higher.

Considering how LSAT test administrations are decreasing, that number should also be decreasing.

Of the T14, only T6 have managed to maintain a 170 median.

The below calculations were done with numbers from the medians thread for C/O 2016, which is 1 year removed from the LSAT administration I'm discussing, so it's not perfectly matched, but we're just talking in roundabout numbers here.

We can do a lowball estimate of all the admitted students who scored under 170 by calculating from each school's median that is below 170. (the 25th of both Yale and Harvard were 170 in 2016, so they're excluded from this calculation. Obviously not everybody admitted was 170+, but this is a lowball estimate). This results in 1,164 x 0.25 + 1,334 x 0.5 + 1,021 x 0.75 = 1,724 students attending T14 with a score below 170.

At least 1,724 students were admitted to T14 with a score lower than 170, meaning at most 2,562 students are attending T14 with a score of 170+ (obviously the real number is lower than this).

3,375 test takers over 170 - 2,562 attending over 170 = 813 students not attending T14 with a score of 170+.

Now, a few things to keep in mind:

- The number of students admitted with a 170+ is an overestimation, so the number not admitted to T14 with 170+ is likely larger than 813.

- However, the number of test takers with a score over 170 is also likely an overestimation, since test takers have been declining.

- There are people who score 170+ and do not apply to law school (like me), and there are people with a 170 who were admitted and had the chance to attend T14 but chose not to. However, there are also people with a score below 170 who were admitted and had the chance to attend T14, but chose not to. For the sake of simplicity this number is ignored, but it's rather significant.

Final calculation:

2,562 students attending/3,375 students with 170+ = 0.76

So, roughly, you have a 76% chance of T14 with an LSAT of 170+. Edit: Let's just pull a standard error out of my ass, like, 20%. So your odds are between 56% and 96%, while likely being heavily dependent on where you fall in the 170-180 scale.

In the T14, if you scored below 170, there are at least ~1,724 slots open for you, out of the 4,286 available. That's about 40% of the C/O 2016 in T14. Basically half of the students have scores below 170. Take from that what you will.

For splitters like me, this is actually bad news.

My GPA is definitely in the bottom 24% of applicants with an LSAT score of 170+, so if they're dinging anybody with a 170+, it's going to be me. Oh well, still gonna apply, fingers crossed, but there you have it. Oh, if only LSAT medians were all-important.

I don't think there's enough information to make guesstimates for 99th percentile (173+), or the golden 175+, or 180s.

Again, this is all just for fun rough estimations. I'm doing this with super limited information, and would be curious what anybody with more information has to add. I'm also tired so my numbers may be way off, if anybody has corrections for me feel free.

[Gray]

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[Colonel_funkadunk]

Hey PNJ the end of the sept 2014 study thread has really been rough on you, huh?

[BillPackets]

Hey PNJ the end of the sept 2014 study thread has really been rough on you, huh?

[PeanutsNJam]

hi family

[Gray]

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[PeanutsNJam]

hi family

This just made me stressed about whether I managed to score at or above my average or not.

I thought it was established you're going to Yale, what's there to stress about.

I mean H and Y are largely excluded from the above generalizations, since their 25% percentile median is 170, so 170+ is necessary but not sufficient. It might have been more accurate to exclude HYS, but look at all the shit I decided to ignore. Fuck accuracy.

[Gray]

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[Tiago Splitter]

So, roughly, you have a 76% chance of T14 with an LSAT of 170+.

I'd guess it's a lot closer to 100%. Some people don't apply, some retakers have two scores of 170+, and most of the rest are explained by people choosing to go outside the T-14 rather than being rejected by all of those schools. It's pretty tough to not get an acceptance at a single T-14 if you score 170+.

[PeanutsNJam]

So, roughly, you have a 76% chance of T14 with an LSAT of 170+.

I'd guess it's a lot closer to 100%. Some people don't apply, some retakers have two scores of 170+, and most of the rest are explained by people choosing to go outside the T-14 rather than being rejected by all of those schools. It's pretty tough to not get an acceptance at a single T-14 if you score 170+.

How I wish this were true. In the end there's no real way to know because we don't know the number of people who score 170+ and don't apply as well as the number who score 170+, are admitted, but don't attend.

That said, we know ~50% students have scores below 170, and there are certainly significantly more people with 170+ than there are who attend T14 with a 170+.

More importantly, there's no way to even accurately gauge how many students are admitted with a 170+.

It would be easy for law schools to release these numbers haha. "Here are your odds of admittance based solely on the previous cycle's stats for your particular LSAT score." ezpz.

[Tiago Splitter]

Just look at LSN/myLSN. There aren't many people scoring 170+ and missing out on the T-14. Plenty of schools outside the T-14 publish the range of LSAT scores matriculating, and a surprising number of them show the top score as being 170+. Notre Dame, for example, brought in a 171. I really doubt that guy had no T-14 options unless his GPA was their lowest accepted at 2.57. Same thing at Hastings, which matriculated a 173 back in 2012. So you have two pieces of evidence: 1) LSN shows nearly everyone with a 170 gets into T-14 and 2) school data shows schools well outside the T-14 getting 170 scorers. From this it's safe to assume that a lot of the people with 170+ who don't go T-14 are doing so voluntarily, and there are enough people in this group to make a real impact on your data.

EDIT: I will say that if you have a GPA below 3.0 and no work experience your chances of a T-14 shutout become more realistic.

[PeanutsNJam]

Just look at LSN/myLSN. There aren't many people scoring 170+ and missing out on the T-14. Plenty of schools outside the T-14 publish the range of LSAT scores matriculating, and a surprising number of them show the top score as being 170+. Notre Dame, for example, brought in a 171. I really doubt that guy had no T-14 options unless his GPA was their lowest accepted at 2.57. Same thing at Hastings, which matriculated a 173 back in 2012. So you have two pieces of evidence: 1) LSN shows nearly everyone with a 170 gets into T-14 and 2) school data shows schools well outside the T-14 getting 170 scorers. From this it's safe to assume that a lot of the people with 170+ who don't go T-14 are doing so voluntarily, and there are enough people in this group to make a real impact on your data.

EDIT: I will say that if you have a GPA below 3.0 and no work experience your chances of a T-14 shutout become more realistic.

I guess this is what concerns me because my gpa is 2.4, I have W/E, and my LSAT is 170. I'm retaking, and this time around my PT average is 175, which is higher than it was when I took it last. So ideally I'm looking at a 2.4/~175, give or take a handful of points. It seems like I'll at least get T25 with some money, but I would not want to be shut out of T14. I just want to know how far my LSAT score will carry me.

[Tiago Splitter]

Ok yeah with a 2.4 you're going to have an uphill battle. But this guy had a 2.6/172 and got money at GULC and NW, so you're far from doomed. You're obviously out at a bunch of T-14's but with WE and a higher LSAT I'd honestly be surprised if you didn't get 1-2.

[PeanutsNJam]

Holy shit Hastings.

2.05-4.11 GPA range
141-173 LSAT range

They've got it all.

Who is that poor sucker who went to Hastings with a 4.11. Could've gotten a full ride to CCN with that shit. I refuse to believe anybody capable of a 4.11 can't get 170+, unless they majored in pottery with a minor in jewelry making, taking the minimum number of credits to graduate with the easiest courses possible from a TTTT undergrad. Which is what I fucking should have done.

[P.J.Fry]

A large majority of the ~10,000 of us from Canada who write the test every year do not wish to go to the US for law school. We may still use a sundial for our timer, and our proctors are baby seals standing at the front of our massive igloo test centers, but a few of us still manage to pull 170s.

[Gray]

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[P.J.Fry]

A large majority of the ~10,000 of us from Canada who write the test every year do not wish to go to the US for law school. We may still use a sundial for our timer, and our proctors are baby seals standing at the front of our massive igloo test centers, but a few of us still manage to pull 170s.

It was pretty chilly in the igloo this year.

We were allowed one whale blubber oil lamp if it fit in our ziploc bag.

[Gray]

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[appind]

Of the T14, only T6 have managed to maintain a 170 median.

The below calculations were done with numbers from the medians thread for C/O 2016, which is 1 year removed from the LSAT administration I'm discussing, so it's not perfectly matched, but we're just talking in roundabout numbers here.

We can do a lowball estimate of all the admitted students who scored under 170 by calculating from each school's median that is below 170. (the 25th of both Yale and Harvard were 170 in 2016, so they're excluded from this calculation. Obviously not everybody admitted was 170+, but this is a lowball estimate). This results in 1,164 x 0.25 + 1,334 x 0.5 + 1,021 x 0.75 = 1,724 students attending T14 with a score below 170.

At least 1,724 students were admitted to T14 with a score lower than 170, meaning at most 2,562 students are attending T14 with a score of 170+ (obviously the real number is lower than this).

3,375 test takers over 170 - 2,562 attending over 170 = 813 students not attending T14 with a score of 170+.

You don't need to exclude HY from calculations. You can get a more accurate analysis if you took the 25% of HY class to be below 170. Also you shouldn't be choosing median to calculate under 170 number at T14 if that's what you are doing in the above calculation. You should choose the number 25/median/75 closest to 170 for the school and use it's appropriate factor of 25/50/75 %

[Crowing]

Just look at LSN/myLSN. There aren't many people scoring 170+ and missing out on the T-14. Plenty of schools outside the T-14 publish the range of LSAT scores matriculating, and a surprising number of them show the top score as being 170+. Notre Dame, for example, brought in a 171. I really doubt that guy had no T-14 options unless his GPA was their lowest accepted at 2.57. Same thing at Hastings, which matriculated a 173 back in 2012. So you have two pieces of evidence: 1) LSN shows nearly everyone with a 170 gets into T-14 and 2) school data shows schools well outside the T-14 getting 170 scorers. From this it's safe to assume that a lot of the people with 170+ who don't go T-14 are doing so voluntarily, and there are enough people in this group to make a real impact on your data.

EDIT: I will say that if you have a GPA below 3.0 and no work experience your chances of a T-14 shutout become more realistic.

Wow I'm really surprised that the top LSAT score at ND is only a 171