Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance? Forum

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Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by PeanutsNJam » Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:59 am

I see a lot of people with numbers like:

GPA 3.2/LSAT 173, or GPA 2.8/LSAT 172, etc. Essentially, hardcore splitters. And they ask, "What are my chances at XYZ school?"

And people's attitude is basically:

"If you're not at or above median, your chances are nil. Don't even apply. How dare you?"

Is this really how it is? Are there really no people in T14 schools with sub 3.0 that have not yet cured cancer or own a Medal of Honor? Isn't there a 10% chance, or a 20% chance, at T14 schools?

I'm asking because I'm a pretty intense splitter. I'm 2.4/170. I took the LSAT two years ago in the middle of my senior year, while I was sick, and a week before Midterms. I didn't study well for it, and seriously considered canceling but decided I could always retake. This time around, I have almost two years of WE (started working straight out of college), and am PTing at ~178 consistently. I am in much better shape, and am much more prepared this time around. I have another month (I'm taking in Oct, am in Asia), and I'm shooting for a 180. I probably won't get it, but I'm a Star Wars fan, so don't tell me the odds.

But am I really boned and completely locked out of T14 even with a 175+? A 180? Should I just not even try, even though I may have a 5-10-20% chance at some T14 schools?

Tangential: I applied for a Chinese work visa before I even got my diploma, and failed to meet 2 of the basic requirements. Clerk said I had no chance. Got it anyway. I'm a lucky SOB, I'll take my chances. I got into my UG school as a splitter too, way below median GPA, way above median SAT. It's my destiny.

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by ms9 » Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:03 am

I can't speak for TLS, but many, probably most people with GPA 3.2/LSAT 173, or GPA 2.8/LSAT 172 got t14 and even t10 this past cycle.

Also, per your post, maybe that is why I get so many phone calls of the "can you give me my percent chance" variety.

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by Winston1984 » Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:41 am

I don't think TLS has that response at all. If you aren't above the LSAT median, and your gpa is way below the 25th, then you do have a very small chance (barring URM status/super softs/etc.) With a 170 you have a shot at some of the splitter friendly T-14s, like NU and maybe UVA, but I would apply to some strong regionals too. A 175+ would obviously help, but with your gpa, I think your cycle would be pretty unpredictable.

My advice is to apply broadly. You may end up with a large scholly at somewhere like WashU, which would be better than sticker at NU, for example.

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by PeanutsNJam » Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:43 am

I'm going to blanket as many schools as I can, definitely, but I actually want to go to either vandy or bu for reasons (yeah I know BU is like #29 but reasons yo). If I can get into T14, I'll most likely go, but even if I don't I'm hoping to leverage for more scholarship money from vandy/bu.

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by BigZuck » Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:48 am

You might be able to sneak into Northwestern but that's probably it. Not really sure that there is any difference between a 2.4/170 and a 2.4/180 though.

You probably shouldn't go to law school unless someone else is paying for it (and you don't particularly care about their money) or you're fabulously wealthy yourself. It'll be much too expensive. Definitely apply broadly and see if a school bites on the LSAT and gives you a worthwhile scholarship, but don't attend unless that school places well in the type of legal job you want (and, some would argue, you have ties to the region that school places in).

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by PeanutsNJam » Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:55 am

Come on, less than 100 people a year get 180. It's gotta be worth something. Not saying I'm gonna get that, but I think there's room for improvement above a 170.

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by gnomgnomuch » Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:56 am

It's not that their is NO chance, its just that the chance is so small that it might be as well zero.

Once you go above a schools 75% there are diminishing returns. So if a school's 75% is say a 173 and you have a 180, that's great, BUT if there is a candidate with a 3.6 and a 173, that candidates chance of getting in is much higher than you getting in.

Conventional wisdom says that you have to help at least 1 of GPA/LSAT to get in the school, but most schools have a hard/soft GPA floor. For example, for Columbia it seems to hover around a 3.5, that doesn't mean an exceptional candidate wont get in with a 3.3/180, but you're looking at 2 tenths of a drop from their floor already. In your case that drop would be over a FULL POINT. That's pretty intense for most schools to swallow, because they can find plenty of candidate who have scored between a 173-180 and who have higher a higher GPA than you.

A 2.4/180 would have a wildly unpredictable cycle, most schools need to hold their medians, but they can find plenty of qualified candidates to do that, without going down into the low 2.'s GPA.

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by BigZuck » Mon Sep 01, 2014 12:02 pm

PeanutsNJam wrote:Come on, less than 100 people a year get 180. It's gotta be worth something. Not saying I'm gonna get that, but I think there's room for improvement above a 170.
From what I understand, how far above the median or 75th the LSAT score is doesn't matter

The cocky/"It's my destiny" routine is kind of amusing (if not a little flame-ish) but if that's your actual attitude I would once again caution you to not attend law school. Your chances of striking out are probably better than the average student and you'll most likely be carrying an insurmountable amount of debt wherever you go cuz of the GPA.

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by PeanutsNJam » Mon Sep 01, 2014 12:09 pm

BigZuck wrote:
PeanutsNJam wrote:Come on, less than 100 people a year get 180. It's gotta be worth something. Not saying I'm gonna get that, but I think there's room for improvement above a 170.
From what I understand, how far above the median or 75th the LSAT score is doesn't matter

The cocky/"It's my destiny" routine is kind of amusing (if not a little flame-ish) but if that's your actual attitude I would once again caution you to not attend law school. Your chances of striking out are probably better than the average student and you'll most likely be carrying an insurmountable amount of debt wherever you go cuz of the GPA.
"It's my destiny" is a joke. I don't see how that's cocky. There's nothing to be proud of.
gnomgnomuch wrote:It's not that their is NO chance, its just that the chance is so small that it might be as well zero.

Once you go above a schools 75% there are diminishing returns. So if a school's 75% is say a 173 and you have a 180, that's great, BUT if there is a candidate with a 3.6 and a 173, that candidates chance of getting in is much higher than you getting in.

Conventional wisdom says that you have to help at least 1 of GPA/LSAT to get in the school, but most schools have a hard/soft GPA floor. For example, for Columbia it seems to hover around a 3.5, that doesn't mean an exceptional candidate wont get in with a 3.3/180, but you're looking at 2 tenths of a drop from their floor already. In your case that drop would be over a FULL POINT. That's pretty intense for most schools to swallow, because they can find plenty of candidate who have scored between a 173-180 and who have higher a higher GPA than you.

A 2.4/180 would have a wildly unpredictable cycle, most schools need to hold their medians, but they can find plenty of qualified candidates to do that, without going down into the low 2.'s GPA.
I'm sure they don't need to accept me to hold their medians, but I'm hoping if I ask real nicely, they'll consider accepting me anyway. I'm not the same person who got that 2.4, I'm hoping my rec letters from my employer(s) can help communicate that. I'm not going to put a huge essay in my addendum, I know it's nobody's fault but my own. But my dad did die of cancer my freshman year in college and I had to work part-time during the school and full-time during the summer to help cover costs that my scholarship/aid didn't. That, and I spent WAY too much time watching TV shows and playing TF2/SC2. Will leave that out of my addendum.

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by 03152016 » Mon Sep 01, 2014 2:26 pm

fwiw i think i recall someone with 2.4/mid 17x getting nu sticker and wustl full boat
he went with wustl

anyways, apply broadly
but unless you're rich or on the gi bill or something like that
nu probably won't give you enough money to make it worthwhile
so make sure to apply to lots of schools in the t20/30 range
(not necessarily bc you want to attend every school you apply to, but for scholly negotiation)

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by PeanutsNJam » Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:20 pm

How's this for a plan: wait for my LSAT score. Take the higher of the two (really hope it's this coming one), and go down the excel spread sheet applying to the first 15-20 schools (depending on my score) where my score is at least 1 point above the 75%, omitting some schools that I really don't want to go to.

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by BigZuck » Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:29 pm

PeanutsNJam wrote:How's this for a plan: wait for my LSAT score. Take the higher of the two (really hope it's this coming one), and go down the excel spread sheet applying to the first 15-20 schools (depending on my score) where my score is at least 1 point above the 75%, omitting some schools that I really don't want to go to.
You probably just need to be median or above if the school is splitter friendly.

Even if you hit median, please don't apply to schools like Harvard or Chicago. Those fat cats don't need their pockets to be further lined with your hundred bucks. Do something worthwhile with the money like donate it to charity or buy a nice bottle of whiskey or something.

Also, what specific schools do you think would care about you more if you had a 180 as opposed to a 170? I can't think of a single one.

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by PeanutsNJam » Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:34 pm

BigZuck wrote:
PeanutsNJam wrote:How's this for a plan: wait for my LSAT score. Take the higher of the two (really hope it's this coming one), and go down the excel spread sheet applying to the first 15-20 schools (depending on my score) where my score is at least 1 point above the 75%, omitting some schools that I really don't want to go to.
You probably just need to be median or above if the school is splitter friendly.

Even if you hit median, please don't apply to schools like Harvard or Chicago. Those fat cats don't need their pockets to be further lined with your hundred bucks. Do something worthwhile with the money like donate it to charity or buy a nice bottle of whiskey or something.

Also, what specific schools do you think would care about you more if you had a 180 as opposed to a 170? I can't think of a single one.
I know I have no chance at the T6, although I'm ambitious enough to try to hit the top 10% of my class in T14 and try to transfer. Probably can't do it, but again, don't tell me the odds. I'll start at #7, skipping some schools that I don't want to go to and that I know are not splitter friendly. I'm sure 180 would have some impact on somebody somewhere. Or like a 177, more realistic. In the end, I'm just not satisfied with my 170. I can do better.

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by BigZuck » Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:44 pm

PeanutsNJam wrote:
BigZuck wrote:
PeanutsNJam wrote:How's this for a plan: wait for my LSAT score. Take the higher of the two (really hope it's this coming one), and go down the excel spread sheet applying to the first 15-20 schools (depending on my score) where my score is at least 1 point above the 75%, omitting some schools that I really don't want to go to.
You probably just need to be median or above if the school is splitter friendly.

Even if you hit median, please don't apply to schools like Harvard or Chicago. Those fat cats don't need their pockets to be further lined with your hundred bucks. Do something worthwhile with the money like donate it to charity or buy a nice bottle of whiskey or something.

Also, what specific schools do you think would care about you more if you had a 180 as opposed to a 170? I can't think of a single one.
I know I have no chance at the T6, although I'm ambitious enough to try to hit the top 10% of my class in T14 and try to transfer. Probably can't do it, but again, don't tell me the odds. I'll start at #7, skipping some schools that I don't want to go to and that I know are not splitter friendly. I'm sure 180 would have some impact on somebody somewhere. Or like a 177, more realistic. In the end, I'm just not satisfied with my 170. I can do better.
Don't bother with Berkeley either, waste of cash. With a 2.4/170+ I would probably only bother with UVA, NU and maybe NYU and Cornell but I think NYU on down (other than Berkeley) is probably fine if you don't particularly care about money.

What's the end goal here though? You know you'll be in 250K+ debt and the only thing that can service that is big law and even that is kind of outrageous, right? And in order to get big law, you'll need good grades for the first time ever, which might be tough. That's a lot of pressure to put yourself under.

If you really, really want to be a lawyer and know what all that entails I would probably see if you could cop a fully at WUSTL (although I hear that is much harder to get these days) and call it a cycle.

You almost certainly won't end up with the requisite grades to transfer into HYS, which are probably the only schools which would make sense for you to transfer into.

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by PeanutsNJam » Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:01 am

BigZuck wrote:
PeanutsNJam wrote:
BigZuck wrote:
PeanutsNJam wrote:How's this for a plan: wait for my LSAT score. Take the higher of the two (really hope it's this coming one), and go down the excel spread sheet applying to the first 15-20 schools (depending on my score) where my score is at least 1 point above the 75%, omitting some schools that I really don't want to go to.
You probably just need to be median or above if the school is splitter friendly.

Even if you hit median, please don't apply to schools like Harvard or Chicago. Those fat cats don't need their pockets to be further lined with your hundred bucks. Do something worthwhile with the money like donate it to charity or buy a nice bottle of whiskey or something.

Also, what specific schools do you think would care about you more if you had a 180 as opposed to a 170? I can't think of a single one.
I know I have no chance at the T6, although I'm ambitious enough to try to hit the top 10% of my class in T14 and try to transfer. Probably can't do it, but again, don't tell me the odds. I'll start at #7, skipping some schools that I don't want to go to and that I know are not splitter friendly. I'm sure 180 would have some impact on somebody somewhere. Or like a 177, more realistic. In the end, I'm just not satisfied with my 170. I can do better.
Don't bother with Berkeley either, waste of cash. With a 2.4/170+ I would probably only bother with UVA, NU and maybe NYU and Cornell but I think NYU on down (other than Berkeley) is probably fine if you don't particularly care about money.

What's the end goal here though? You know you'll be in 250K+ debt and the only thing that can service that is big law and even that is kind of outrageous, right? And in order to get big law, you'll need good grades for the first time ever, which might be tough. That's a lot of pressure to put yourself under.

If you really, really want to be a lawyer and know what all that entails I would probably see if you could cop a fully at WUSTL (although I hear that is much harder to get these days) and call it a cycle.

You almost certainly won't end up with the requisite grades to transfer into HYS, which are probably the only schools which would make sense for you to transfer into.
The end goal is to be able to spend my life doing something that I'm passionate about and challenges me. If that means living in relative poverty until I'm 35 then so be it. Sure, I can go to a trade school and make a comfortable 50/hr as a mechanic for the rest of my life with little to no debt, but that's not what I want to do with my life. Money is less important than doing what I wanna do.

If anybody knows, is there any kind of debt forgiveness for federal jobs?
Last edited by PeanutsNJam on Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:18 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by A. Nony Mouse » Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:05 am

Yes. Public Service Loan Forgiveness. It applies to government, public sector, and non-profit jobs. Google PSLF.

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by drive4showLSAT4dough » Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:17 am

PeanutsNJam wrote:
The end goal is to be able to spend my life doing something that I'm passionate about and challenges me. If that means living in relative poverty until I'm 35 then so be it. Sure, I can go to a trade school and make a comfortable 50/hr as a mechanic for the rest of my life with little to no debt, but that's not what I want to do with my life. Money is less important than doing what I wanna do.

If anybody knows, is there any kind of debt forgiveness for federal jobs?
Are you passionate about doc review and/or reviewing comma splices in contracts? If you get biglaw, that is the work you will start with. If you get elite gov't work, you may still be in tremendous debt at 35. Both are extremely hard to attain, and you would only find out AFTER making the 250k gamble. So, what do you want to do as a lawyer?

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by PeanutsNJam » Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:19 am

drive4showLSAT4dough wrote:
PeanutsNJam wrote:
The end goal is to be able to spend my life doing something that I'm passionate about and challenges me. If that means living in relative poverty until I'm 35 then so be it. Sure, I can go to a trade school and make a comfortable 50/hr as a mechanic for the rest of my life with little to no debt, but that's not what I want to do with my life. Money is less important than doing what I wanna do.

If anybody knows, is there any kind of debt forgiveness for federal jobs?
Are you passionate about doc review and/or reviewing comma splices in contracts? If you get biglaw, that is the work you will start with. If you get elite gov't work, you may still be in tremendous debt at 35. Both are extremely hard to attain, and you would only find out AFTER making the 250k gamble. So, what do you want to do as a lawyer?
I know I've had shitty grades, but I'm not trying to go to law school just for a degree. Regardless of transferring or biglaw or whatever, I'm going to do the best I can and do well because I know I can, and the regret I have from squandering all of my UG opportunities is punishment enough for me not to do that again (on top of how hard it was to find a job). What I really want to do is either work for the FBI or work as a prosecutor, because I'm passionate about criminal justice. Specifically, human trafficking. Would very much like to do something about that. So, I'm gonna apply to law school, see my options, then go to law school, and after my first year, decide what it is I actually wanna do, and then do it.

Before some of you say "well, if you're not gonna do biglaw, then just go to any old school", I want to go to the best school I can because I'm not dead set on what it is I want to do yet. Maybe I want to do environmental law, or international business law, or patent law, or divorce law.

I can't make a decision on that until I experience some of it. Life isn't all biglaw or janitor.

Plus, there's always mom's basement. I'll find a spot to hang my NU diploma down there, just gotta clear some cobwebs.

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by whitespider » Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:35 am

PeanutsNJam wrote: What I really want to do is either work for the FBI or work as a prosecutor, because I'm passionate about criminal justice. Specifically, human trafficking.
There are MUCH better ways to get into federal law enforcement than law school, if thats something you're interested in. You'd be 1000% better off getting a job as an state/local LEO. Plus, then if you hate it, you aren't hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt.

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by BigZuck » Tue Sep 02, 2014 1:13 am

What kind of lawyers does the FBI employ? Honest question, I didn't realize that was a thing.

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by A. Nony Mouse » Tue Sep 02, 2014 1:42 am

I'm pretty sure the lawyers who work for the FBI are basically general counsel to the agency. They're not prosecutors and don't have a particular law enforcement role, as I understand it, except to the extent they have to try to keep the agents from breaking the law. https://www.fbijobs.gov/311175.asp

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by PeanutsNJam » Tue Sep 02, 2014 2:18 am

They also hire Special Agents (yes they're actually called that, basically the dudes running around in vests) with a JD as a law specialization. I qualify for the language specialization and will qualify for diversity specialization in a few years of work, so I don't need a JD to apply for that. But the FBI is just an avenue I'm considering and exploring, not a dream job.

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by Caesar Salad » Tue Sep 02, 2014 3:16 am

PeanutsNJam wrote:They also hire Special Agents (yes they're actually called that, basically the dudes running around in vests) with a JD as a law specialization. I qualify for the language specialization and will qualify for diversity specialization in a few years of work, so I don't need a JD to apply for that. But the FBI is just an avenue I'm considering and exploring, not a dream job.
What is a dream job that the FBI special agent avenue leads to?

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by PeanutsNJam » Tue Sep 02, 2014 9:08 am

Caesar Salad wrote:
PeanutsNJam wrote:They also hire Special Agents (yes they're actually called that, basically the dudes running around in vests) with a JD as a law specialization. I qualify for the language specialization and will qualify for diversity specialization in a few years of work, so I don't need a JD to apply for that. But the FBI is just an avenue I'm considering and exploring, not a dream job.
What is a dream job that the FBI special agent avenue leads to?
Idk, private security consultant, PMC consultant, FBI director? Etc. Lots of things. Those consultants make bank. I know it's got nothing to do with law school but it's a consideration. Not like something I'm dead set on doing.
Last edited by PeanutsNJam on Tue Sep 02, 2014 9:09 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Why is TLS' attitude on admissions either 0% or 50%+ chance?

Post by 03152016 » Tue Sep 02, 2014 9:09 am

BigZuck wrote:
PeanutsNJam wrote:
BigZuck wrote:
PeanutsNJam wrote:How's this for a plan: wait for my LSAT score. Take the higher of the two (really hope it's this coming one), and go down the excel spread sheet applying to the first 15-20 schools (depending on my score) where my score is at least 1 point above the 75%, omitting some schools that I really don't want to go to.
You probably just need to be median or above if the school is splitter friendly.

Even if you hit median, please don't apply to schools like Harvard or Chicago. Those fat cats don't need their pockets to be further lined with your hundred bucks. Do something worthwhile with the money like donate it to charity or buy a nice bottle of whiskey or something.

Also, what specific schools do you think would care about you more if you had a 180 as opposed to a 170? I can't think of a single one.
I know I have no chance at the T6, although I'm ambitious enough to try to hit the top 10% of my class in T14 and try to transfer. Probably can't do it, but again, don't tell me the odds. I'll start at #7, skipping some schools that I don't want to go to and that I know are not splitter friendly. I'm sure 180 would have some impact on somebody somewhere. Or like a 177, more realistic. In the end, I'm just not satisfied with my 170. I can do better.
Don't bother with Berkeley either, waste of cash. With a 2.4/170+ I would probably only bother with UVA, NU and maybe NYU and Cornell but I think NYU on down (other than Berkeley) is probably fine if you don't particularly care about money.

What's the end goal here though? You know you'll be in 250K+ debt and the only thing that can service that is big law and even that is kind of outrageous, right? And in order to get big law, you'll need good grades for the first time ever, which might be tough. That's a lot of pressure to put yourself under.

If you really, really want to be a lawyer and know what all that entails I would probably see if you could cop a fully at WUSTL (although I hear that is much harder to get these days) and call it a cycle.

You almost certainly won't end up with the requisite grades to transfer into HYS, which are probably the only schools which would make sense for you to transfer into.
people get nyu with a 2.4!?!

Seriously? What are you waiting for?

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