/ Forum

[turtles]

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[thelawyler]

like really.

[rinkrat19]

Yale does not do rolling admissions, I don't think.

For schools that do, you can aim more like Thanksgiving and still be plenty early. Look at when decisions start coming out (a few schools in November, a flood in December, a bigger flood in January) and recognize that every time an acceptance is offered, that's one fewer that the school will offer later. Do you want to get your apps in when there are all 250 seats in the class still open, or when there are only 20 seats left?

[laxbrah420]

Dude, find a 3.9/178 who didn't get into Yale and ask them when they when they applied. The best way to do this is to go to HLS' campus wearing a T-Shirt with that question

If that question doesn't fit on the shirt, just put, "How late did you apply to Yale"

[wisdom]

YLS works a little differently and has a huge bulk of the class admitted in March/April. Your numbers are very strong and you will likely land 2/3 out of HYS. Develop that relationship with your thesis prof and get your apps out the door by Thanksgiving (ideally) or by Christmas, and you'll be golden.

[elterrible78]

Dude, find a 3.9/178 who didn't get into Yale and ask them when they when they applied. The best way to do this is to go to HLS' campus wearing a T-Shirt with that question

If that question doesn't fit on the shirt, just put, "How late did you apply to Yale"

No need, here I am. I applied the first day applications were open.

Beyond this anecdotal evidence, though, of the top 14 (and this is based on LSN data from as far back as possible up to the last application cycle), Yale has the smallest associated benefit with applying early, and Stanford's is higher only than Yale's an NYU's. You have a 10% better chance of admissions at Yale for applying a month earlier (November applicants have a 10% better shot than December applicants, who have a 10% better shot than January applicants, etc.) For Stanford, this is 20%.

[drawstring]

Dude, find a 3.9/178 who didn't get into Yale and ask them when they when they applied. The best way to do this is to go to HLS' campus wearing a T-Shirt with that question

If that question doesn't fit on the shirt, just put, "How late did you apply to Yale"

No need, here I am. I applied the first day applications were open.

Beyond this anecdotal evidence, though, of the top 14 (and this is based on LSN data from as far back as possible up to the last application cycle), Yale has the smallest associated benefit with applying early, and Stanford's is higher only than Yale's an NYU's. You have a 10% better chance of admissions at Yale for applying a month earlier (November applicants have a 10% better shot than December applicants, who have a 10% better shot than January applicants, etc.) For Stanford, this is 20%.

Does the bolded also apply to September vs. October/November?

[elterrible78]

Dude, find a 3.9/178 who didn't get into Yale and ask them when they when they applied. The best way to do this is to go to HLS' campus wearing a T-Shirt with that question

If that question doesn't fit on the shirt, just put, "How late did you apply to Yale"

No need, here I am. I applied the first day applications were open.

Beyond this anecdotal evidence, though, of the top 14 (and this is based on LSN data from as far back as possible up to the last application cycle), Yale has the smallest associated benefit with applying early, and Stanford's is higher only than Yale's an NYU's. You have a 10% better chance of admissions at Yale for applying a month earlier (November applicants have a 10% better shot than December applicants, who have a 10% better shot than January applicants, etc.) For Stanford, this is 20%.

Does the bolded also apply to September vs. October/November?

It's across the board, from the beginning to end of the cycle. Each month you apply early gives you a 10% greater chance of admission than an identical candidate who applies a month after you. Of course, this only controls for things we can measure, like LSAT, GPA, whether you EDed or not, URM status, etc., and not for things like letters of rec, strength of your PS, etc.

[WokeUpInACar]

Dude, find a 3.9/178 who didn't get into Yale and ask them when they when they applied. The best way to do this is to go to HLS' campus wearing a T-Shirt with that question

If that question doesn't fit on the shirt, just put, "How late did you apply to Yale"

No need, here I am. I applied the first day applications were open.

Beyond this anecdotal evidence, though, of the top 14 (and this is based on LSN data from as far back as possible up to the last application cycle), Yale has the smallest associated benefit with applying early, and Stanford's is higher only than Yale's an NYU's. You have a 10% better chance of admissions at Yale for applying a month earlier (November applicants have a 10% better shot than December applicants, who have a 10% better shot than January applicants, etc.) For Stanford, this is 20%.

Does the bolded also apply to September vs. October/November?

It's across the board, from the beginning to end of the cycle. Each month you apply early gives you a 10% greater chance of admission than an identical candidate who applies a month after you. Of course, this only controls for things we can measure, like LSAT, GPA, whether you EDed or not, URM status, etc., and not for things like letters of rec, strength of your PS, etc.

Not that I don't believe you but, source?

[elterrible78]

Not that I don't believe you but, source?

No worries. The source was myself. I got sick back in January for about a week, and my wife was out of town, so I spent the time doing regression analysis on all the data from LSN. The constant refrain on TLS is that "all that matters is numbers" so I was initially interested in seeing how much law school decisions could be accounted for by numbers alone, and it kind of branched out from there. How much does applying early matter? How about URM status? Does ED really screw your chances of scholarship money? Speaking of scholarship money, how much does URM status have to do with it, and how about LSAT and GPA? Which schools give the biggest ED bump, and to who? Which schools are actually splitter-friendly? It was a cool project to work on when I was down and couldn't do much else.

[turtles]

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[elterrible78]

Not that I don't believe you but, source?

No worries. The source was myself. I got sick back in January for about a week, and my wife was out of town, so I spent the time doing regression analysis on all the data from LSN. The constant refrain on TLS is that "all that matters is numbers" so I was initially interested in seeing how much law school decisions could be accounted for by numbers alone, and it kind of branched out from there. How much does applying early matter? How about URM status? Does ED really screw your chances of scholarship money? Speaking of scholarship money, how much does URM status have to do with it, and how about LSAT and GPA? Which schools give the biggest ED bump, and to who? Which schools are actually splitter-friendly? It was a cool project to work on when I was down and couldn't do much else.

that sounds like a pretty cool project, but did you try to control for things like the fact that better applicants with stronger numbers also tend to apply earlier in the cycle? i can imagine that accounting for an omitted variable that may bias the regression results in some form. in any case, i think your results are pretty interesting.

Well, because I controlled for LSAT and GPA, the fact that better applicants might apply earlier wouldn't really matter. Like I said, though, there are certainly caveats to the entire thing, namely just how representative the LSN crowd is of applicants in general, and clearly omitted variables such as the strength of personal statements, letters of recommendation, undergrad institution, resumes, etc. It's far from perfect, but definitely instructive, I think. The results confirmed some of the TLS conventional wisdom (ED UVA!) and disconfirmed some of it (it's numbers, numbers, and nothing but numbers).

[laxbrah420]

Wow. Elterrible is awesome

And to the guy challenging the regression by saying, "you might have forgot a variable" Go fuck yourself.

Oh it's the OP. even more go fuck yourself. What kind of fucking answer to this question were you expecting? Dude provides regression analysis that undoubtedly holds GPA and LSAT constant and you still question it?

[Cobretti]

Not that I don't believe you but, source?

No worries. The source was myself. I got sick back in January for about a week, and my wife was out of town, so I spent the time doing regression analysis on all the data from LSN. The constant refrain on TLS is that "all that matters is numbers" so I was initially interested in seeing how much law school decisions could be accounted for by numbers alone, and it kind of branched out from there. How much does applying early matter? How about URM status? Does ED really screw your chances of scholarship money? Speaking of scholarship money, how much does URM status have to do with it, and how about LSAT and GPA? Which schools give the biggest ED bump, and to who? Which schools are actually splitter-friendly? It was a cool project to work on when I was down and couldn't do much else.

that sounds like a pretty cool project, but did you try to control for things like the fact that better applicants with stronger numbers also tend to apply earlier in the cycle? i can imagine that accounting for an omitted variable that may bias the regression results in some form. in any case, i think your results are pretty interesting.

Well, because I controlled for LSAT and GPA, the fact that better applicants might apply earlier wouldn't really matter. Like I said, though, there are certainly caveats to the entire thing, namely just how representative the LSN crowd is of applicants in general, and clearly omitted variables such as the strength of personal statements, letters of recommendation, undergrad institution, resumes, etc. It's far from perfect, but definitely instructive, I think. The results confirmed some of the TLS conventional wisdom (ED UVA!) and disconfirmed some of it (it's numbers, numbers, and nothing but numbers).

great idea, sounds really interesting. just curious, what kind of R2s were you getting? and which variable had the lowest pvalue?

[turtles]

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[elterrible78]

great idea, sounds really interesting. just curious, what kind of R2s were you getting? and which variable had the lowest pvalue?

Thanks, it was actually super interesting for me, at least (no surprise that I'm headed to U Chicago in the fall, I guess).

As for your questions, they are a little tough to answer because I had a variety of different models, depending on what I was looking at, and the majority of my models involved logistic regressions, so there was only a pseudo-R2 which, or course, you need to interpret a little skeptically. The pseudo-R2 itself was the primary thing I was interested in on my original models, which simply regressed admissions outcomes (admit or deny) on LSAT and GPA, because I was interested in seeing how much of the admissions decision could be explained by numbers alone. I don't remember p-values off the top of my head, to be honest, but most stuff was coming back as statistically significant at either the .05 or .01 level, again depending on the model I was looking at.

[FlowBro]

Yes.

http://Www.lawschoolnumbers.com/flowbro

[Richie Tenenbaum]

Not that I don't believe you but, source?

No worries. The source was myself. I got sick back in January for about a week, and my wife was out of town, so I spent the time doing regression analysis on all the data from LSN. The constant refrain on TLS is that "all that matters is numbers" so I was initially interested in seeing how much law school decisions could be accounted for by numbers alone, and it kind of branched out from there. How much does applying early matter? How about URM status? Does ED really screw your chances of scholarship money? Speaking of scholarship money, how much does URM status have to do with it, and how about LSAT and GPA? Which schools give the biggest ED bump, and to who? Which schools are actually splitter-friendly? It was a cool project to work on when I was down and couldn't do much else.

Is this something that can be shared online? I think it could provide a valuable breakdown for people to look over.

[sublime]

..

[elterrible78]

Not that I don't believe you but, source?

No worries. The source was myself. I got sick back in January for about a week, and my wife was out of town, so I spent the time doing regression analysis on all the data from LSN. The constant refrain on TLS is that "all that matters is numbers" so I was initially interested in seeing how much law school decisions could be accounted for by numbers alone, and it kind of branched out from there. How much does applying early matter? How about URM status? Does ED really screw your chances of scholarship money? Speaking of scholarship money, how much does URM status have to do with it, and how about LSAT and GPA? Which schools give the biggest ED bump, and to who? Which schools are actually splitter-friendly? It was a cool project to work on when I was down and couldn't do much else.

Is this something that can be shared online? I think it could provide a valuable breakdown for people to look over.

I have it all put together in a PDF...there are problems with it, which I point out, and I plan on breaking the stuff out again late in the summer or early in the application cycle, because I do think that it is useful information for people who are applying and trying to make strategic decisions (to ED or not, what are my chances, etc.) I plan on going beyond the T14 with it so as not to be an elitist prick (which I'm not), and I want to incorporate the current cycle into the analysis (and maybe even analyze it separately as well to see just how "epic" the cycle really was), but if you're interested in the current, imperfect document I put together, just shoot me a PM and I'll send it along to you.

I'm actually happy to know that there are people interested, because back when I first floated this a few months ago, precious few people really seemed to give a tin shit.

[elterrible78]

You do far,far,far better/more interesting/more useful things in your downtime than I do.

You know what I did when I was sick last? I watched all the British and American episodes of Kitchen Nightmares on Netflix.

I did the same thing with Breaking Bad and most of Sons of Anarchy the second-to-the-last time I was sick

[Vexed]

Dude, find a 3.9/178 who didn't get into Yale and ask them when they when they applied. The best way to do this is to go to HLS' campus wearing a T-Shirt with that question

If that question doesn't fit on the shirt, just put, "How late did you apply to Yale"

No need, here I am. I applied the first day applications were open.

Beyond this anecdotal evidence, though, of the top 14 (and this is based on LSN data from as far back as possible up to the last application cycle), Yale has the smallest associated benefit with applying early, and Stanford's is higher only than Yale's an NYU's. You have a 10% better chance of admissions at Yale for applying a month earlier (November applicants have a 10% better shot than December applicants, who have a 10% better shot than January applicants, etc.) For Stanford, this is 20%.

Does the bolded also apply to September vs. October/November?

It's across the board, from the beginning to end of the cycle. Each month you apply early gives you a 10% greater chance of admission than an identical candidate who applies a month after you. Of course, this only controls for things we can measure, like LSAT, GPA, whether you EDed or not, URM status, etc., and not for things like letters of rec, strength of your PS, etc.

Does this run all the way back to say, September?

[elterrible78]

Does this run all the way back to say, September?

With schools that open applications in September, definitely.

[Ded Precedent]

I did the same thing with Breaking Bad and most of Sons of Anarchy the second-to-the-last time I was sick

You seem to get sick a lot. Are you dying? We could really use that research so post it soon.

[elterrible78]

I did the same thing with Breaking Bad and most of Sons of Anarchy the second-to-the-last time I was sick

You seem to get sick a lot. Are you dying? We could really use that research so post it soon.

Well, we're all dying, aren't we? I don't get sick that often, actually...the whole Breaking Bad thing was back in the summer of 2011, so I had a full year and a half between semi-debilitating illnesses. The research is too much to just be posted here, but PM me and I'll send you a copy of what I have.