Will 2014 LS apps will increase, decrease, or hold steady? Forum

[ObviousAlias]

If the downward trend continues, then like Kevin Garnett, anything is possible.

[Jaqen]

No way to know, really. If I had to guess, I'd say either a slight decrease or hold steady.

[thelawyler]

It'll keep decreasing

[Nova]

Hold steady.

Call me now for your free terot reading.

[20141023]

.

[bcandybc]

it will decrease, less than 10% though.

[Yukos]

[Cobretti]

it will decrease, less than 10% though.

My guess as well. It looks like its tapering off.

[voltage88]

it will decrease, less than 10% though.

My guess as well. It looks like its tapering off.

Why do you think it will taper off? In the past three years the number of applicants has decreased by 10%, 13.7%, and this year 15.9% (so far).

[zman]

Paul Campos stopped running his blog. too bad for that.. He probably scared off a lot of people and that's not a bad thing.

[NYstate]

If they don't continue to decrease dramatically, that will just mean the employment message isn't getting out. Campos has a book which is very cheap to buy and which covers many points from his blog.

No matter how positive people are on this site- employment is not improving. Just go to above the law and read Eli's recent articles from the conference that occurred last week. The president of NALP- who is probably under industry pressure to make things seem better than they are- reported some troubling stats about the great decrease in law firm hiring. And we know government and PI are still hurting.

Most people should not be going to law school. Yes, it works out for some people who are lucky enough to get jobs to repay their massive debt- but for at least half of grads it doesn't. I would argue even more than half.

A significant number of people on this forum should not be attending law school- that is just the reality of the employment market versus the unforgivable fleecing of students by the schools greedy tuition rates. If tuition was reasonable, I would have a different opinion.

When I see the many threads on here about schools that I know will not result in grads getting jobs or people who refuse to retake, I know we still have a long way to go in demolishing the scam.


Here is a link: http://abovethelaw.com/2013/04/nalp13-e ... not-apply/

Edit to add: note that shrinkage in existing applicant pool is more than offset by all those pesky new schools in the pipeline according to
nALP.

[Cobretti]

it will decrease, less than 10% though.

My guess as well. It looks like its tapering off.

Why do you think it will taper off? In the past three years the number of applicants has decreased by 10%, 13.7%, and this year 15.9% (so far).

You're right, I was under the impression last year was >20% decrease. But looks like it is still increasing.

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ummary.asp

[Micdiddy]

No matter how positive people are on this site

[Nova]

No matter how positive people are on this site

[NYstate]

No matter how positive people are on this site

Yes I know that seems funny. But look at all the threads by people going to schools that won't give them a shot of repaying their loans. And all the trap schools. I know the people who won't retake get a negative push- but there are plenty of people on this site making terrible decisions and being encouraged by others to do so.

I know the rules don't allow explaining the job market in the individual school threads. But just see how many people are plansning to go to schools that no one should go to. Or the stips they are willing to accept on scholarships .There are many schools in that category.

This site is overly positive about the debt: employment ratios for most schools. It is also supportive of people going into large debt for law school, something I personally don't think is the best plan. But that is an individual thing.

Did you guys read the link to ATL? Have you read the vale of tears thread ?

I stand by my assertion that many people on this site should not be going to law school next year. I do think TLS is too positive. I recognize it may be more negative than other sources 0Ls have read, but it still isn't as realistic as it needs to be.

[WhatOurBodiesAreFor]

No matter how positive people are on this site

Yes I know that seems funny. But look at all the threads by people going to schools that won't give them a shot of repaying their loans. And all the trap schools. I know the people who won't retake get a negative push- but there are plenty of people on this site making terrible decisions and being encouraged by others to do so.

I know the rules don't allow explaining the job market in the individual school threads. But just see how many people are plansning to go to schools that no one should go to. Or the stips they are willing to accept on scholarships .There are many schools in that category.

This site is overly positive about the debt: employment ratios for most schools. It is also supportive of people going into large debt for law school, something I personally don't think is the best plan. But that is an individual thing.

Did you guys read the link to ATL? Have you read the vale of tears thread ?

I stand by my assertion that many people on this site should not be going to law school next year. I do think TLS is too positive. I recognize it may be more negative than other sources 0Ls have read, but it still isn't as realistic as it needs to be.

On the whole, you may be right, tls may be too positive. (but this probably just obstensibly seems to be the case because, as u said, the rules dont allow "DONT GO TO CATTTHOLIC"-type psts)

but at the end of day, tls has a disproportionate amount of people with outrageous opportunity costs, which makes the whole T14 at sticker argument more contentious here than it should be. Liberal arts degree, WE only as barista, lower-middle class, sticker at Cornell? Often not a bad decision provided the applicant is doing it under the right cirumstances. Ivy UG, leaving 80K job he loves, sticker at Cornell. Different story.

i think on this issue tls could be less cynical. the community here doesnt let off the hook those who arent so scared of the risk and wouldnt be so bummed to live on a small income if thats what it came to

[NYstate]

On the whole, you may be right, tls may be too positive. (but this probably just obstensibly seems to be the case because, as u said, the rules dont allow "DONT GO TO CATTTHOLIC"-type psts)

but at the end of day, tls has a disproportionate amount of people with outrageous opportunity costs, which makes the whole T14 at sticker argument more contentious here than it should be. Liberal arts degree, WE only as barista, lower-middle class, sticker at Cornell? Often not a bad decision provided the applicant is doing it under the right cirumstances. Ivy UG, leaving 80K job he loves, sticker at Cornell. Different story.

i think on this issue tls could be less cynical. the community here doesnt let off the hook those who arent so scared of the risk and wouldnt be so bummed to live on a small income if thats what it came to

I guess. I'm just not convinced that people understand that getting big law is very competitive because so many people here get big law. I also think that people say they will be fine with making less, but the bimodal distribution is killer. When people graduate with sticker debt at Cornell, they will owe ...what...more than $200,000? Without big law, is that manageable?

[WhatOurBodiesAreFor]

Without big law, is that manageable?

Of course it is. Do you think the people who dont get big law are just sentenced to death? You can get on an LRAP if you qualify. If you dont IBR-like programs aren't going anywhere. Sure, on IBR you'll be making a dismal amount of money but itll probably be a lot more than he would have been making as an events coordinator for NGO, xxx. (note my stipulation above that the sticker cant have strict money/earnings-based goals). Plus, in the long-term, a Cornell law degree has so much more potential than liberal arts degree, xxxx, from crap state school.

(Very) rarely does American sticker make sense, but Cornell sticker very well can

[Micdiddy]

NYstate-I agree with just about everything you said concerning how most people on these boards going to law school probably shouldn't. But that's just a fact of life. I don't believe you can actually frequent these boards and think TLSers give each other overwhelmingly bad advice.
Show me a recent thread (other then school specific ones with special rules) where TLS supported someone in making a bad decision...

[Uncle Ruslan]

OP: I think another interesting question is what effect the Supreme Court's decision on affirmative action will have on the number of applications.

[NYstate]

NYstate-I agree with just about everything you said concerning how most people on these boards going to law school probably shouldn't. But that's just a fact of life. I don't believe you can actually frequent these boards and think TLSers give each other overwhelmingly bad advice.
Show me a recent thread (other then school specific ones with special rules) where TLS supported someone in making a bad decision...

I think people are too optimistic. I think the voices of the successful people are heard here ( which is completely valid) but those who are unsuccessful, not so much. As I recall anyone who posts about not being able to find a job from a top school gets immediately called flame and challenged, not much support for those people, so they don't post much. TLS tends toward the most successful students who get the jobs they want. I can only think of one person who posted about their long job struggle.

I think most 0Ls have no clue about getting a biglaw job and not much more of a clue about law school with a mandatory curve and grades based on 1 exam. I don't read too many posts from people who are at median or who aren't doing well, other than the occasional "should I drop out" post.

Most of threads advising 0Ls here are just quoting placement rates vs. cost. That is useful advice I guess, but everyone assumes they will be the ones getting the good jobs, whether they admit it or not. In this thread someone said sticker at Cornell is a good idea because you can always get IBR and will be making more money than if you hadn't gone. Maybe that is true, I'm not sure what the underemployment rate is for Cornell this year. But I wouldn't do it - I would find something else if I had too. I would not have gone into six-figures of debt just to get a biglaw job so I could pay it off. I think that mine is a valid opinion (but then I would.)

And I think the school specific threads are an important part of TLS. So I don't just dismiss those threads or the people who are going to terrible schools.

I mean, people do understand the reason why applications have been dropping so dramatically, right? The job market is terrible. The risk is high.

So, yes, I think TLS is still too optimistic.

[Gunnar Stahl]

I mean, people do understand the reason why applications have been dropping so dramatically, right? The job market is terrible. The risk is high.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't the biggest drop off in applicants been with those with >170 LSAT's?

Edit: This is from last year:

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/arc ... ol/255685/

That should tell you something.

[Micdiddy]

NYstate-I agree with just about everything you said concerning how most people on these boards going to law school probably shouldn't. But that's just a fact of life. I don't believe you can actually frequent these boards and think TLSers give each other overwhelmingly bad advice.
Show me a recent thread (other then school specific ones with special rules) where TLS supported someone in making a bad decision...

I think people are too optimistic. I think the voices of the successful people are heard here ( which is completely valid) but those who are unsuccessful, not so much. As I recall anyone who posts about not being able to find a job from a top school gets immediately called flame and challenged, not much support for those people, so they don't post much. TLS tends toward the most successful students who get the jobs they want. I can only think of one person who posted about their long job struggle.

I think most 0Ls have no clue about getting a biglaw job and not much more of a clue about law school with a mandatory curve and grades based on 1 exam. I don't read too many posts from people who are at median or who aren't doing well, other than the occasional "should I drop out" post.

Most of threads advising 0Ls here are just quoting placement rates vs. cost. That is useful advice I guess, but everyone assumes they will be the ones getting the good jobs, whether they admit it or not. In this thread someone said sticker at Cornell is a good idea because you can always get IBR and will be making more money than if you hadn't gone. Maybe that is true, I'm not sure what the underemployment rate is for Cornell this year. But I wouldn't do it - I would find something else if I had too. I would not have gone into six-figures of debt just to get a biglaw job so I could pay it off. I think that mine is a valid opinion (but then I would.)

And I think the school specific threads are an important part of TLS. So I don't just dismiss those threads or the people who are going to terrible schools.

I mean, people do understand the reason why applications have been dropping so dramatically, right? The job market is terrible. The risk is high.

So, yes, I think TLS is still too optimistic.

Haha, yes, so dismissing all evidence to the contrary and focusing on things that support your point only, then obviously you see things that way.
You act like TLS has a litmus test before someone can sign up. Anyone can make an account and post whatever they want, and if they post ridiculous stuff about getting big law from UH, they will be corrected very quickly.
All the points you are making is literally everything TLS says all the time. Do you even read the threads anymore? Can you find me one single thread where overwhelmingly bad advice was given?
Also, anyone can make a thread about not finding a job, whose fault is it that they don't bother doing it, TLSs?
Obviously school specific threads are a huge part of TLS, but you've already acknowledged their special rules so what do you want us TLSers to do about it? Focusing on threads where we are physically unable to give advice and saying "see! This is why I think TLS gives bad advice!" Is a huge flaw.

[John_rizzy_rawls]

Hold steady.

Call me now for your free terot reading.

You don't post enough.

[Nova]

Hold steady.

Call me now for your free terot reading.

You don't post enough.

Finals start next week

Hopefully my summer job will have enough down time to accommodate megaposting