Law Schools Could Be Admitting 80 Percent of Applicants Forum

[LSAT Blog]

From ABA Journal:

If you are an aspiring law student with low grades and scores on the Law School Admission Test, this could be your year.

University of St. Thomas law professor Jerry Organ explains why in a post at the Legal Whiteboard that chronicles declining enrollments from 2010 to 2011, along with declining credentials of entering classes. He estimates that admission rates could possibly top 80 percent this fall.

Seventy-five of the 197 law schools ranked by U.S. News & World Report, or about 38 percent, suffered from triple declines in 2011—in enrollment, and test scores and grades of entering students, Organ says.

From Legal Whiteboard (Jerry Organ):

PROFILES IN DECLINE -- Between 2010 and 2011, 111 law schools had a decline in their LSAT/GPA profile, 59 had an increase in profile, and 27 had a mixed profile. (A decline means across six possible data points, 75th, median, and 25th for LSAT and GPA, more scores went down then up; an increase means more scores went up than down; a mixed profile means the same number of scores went up as went down. For example, if a school had an LSAT/GPA profile in 2010 of 160/156/153 and 3.82/3.65/3.45 and an LSAT/GPA profile in 2011 of 160/156/152 and 3.83/3.64/3.43, this would be a decline in profile – down on three parameters and up on one parameter.) The average 75th LSAT has dropped from 160.2 to 159.9, while the average 25 LSAT has dropped from 155.2 to 154.3. The median scores for the 75 and 25 fell from 160 and 155 for LSAT to 159 and 153.

[KevinP]

Great articles!

"Although the decline in enrollment and in profiles was experienced across the board, it was more pronounced among lower ranked schools."
I think applicants have become/are becoming way more picky. I hope this trend continues into the near future, and we finally see some TTTs closing.

This also makes me wonder if I should reapply just to see if I can get a better deal next year...

ETA:
If you look at the total stats over the last 2 years, the 170-174 applicant pool has declined by by 1/4th and the 175+ applicant pool has declined by 1/3rd. Considering the decline is continuing into next year, albeit at a slower pace, I can safely say the pendulum is swinging in favor of applicants.

[PaulKriske]

what the hell is univ. of st. thomas?

[dowu]

This is great news, as I am applying this next cycle! Kowabunga!

[admisionquestion]

St Thomas is one of 4 law schools in Minnesota.

It is the youngest of the four schools.

The others are Hamline, University of Minnesota and William Mitchel.

Its a TTTT and its "niche" seems to be a religious spin. There mission is:
"The University of St. Thomas School of Law, as a Catholic law school, is dedicated to integrating faith and reason in the search for truth through a focus on morality and social justice."

Though the school as a whole is not excessively religious...

I'm not sure what else you want to know.

[KevinP]

Guys, I think we are missing the real question here. Will Cooley finally hit a 100% acceptance rate?

[SuperCerealBrah]

Guys, I think we are missing the real question here. Will Cooley finally hit a 100% acceptance rate?

L.O.L

[Tushbush]

Assuming the declines will somewhat affect schools not in the third and fourth tiers, what is the consensus on how the declining test takers and applicants will affect lsat medians at T2 schools. More specifically those that fall in the 65-85 range in regards to rank.

[2014]

LSAT medians are probably going to be down across the board this year, potentially into the T14. Depends how much schools cut class sizes.

[DaRascal]

You guys shouldn't hate on TTTT's so much. I'm thinking about going to one.

[JohnV]

You guys think this trend is going to hold up for c/o 2017?

[KevinP]

You guys think this trend is going to hold up for c/o 2017?

Basically impossible to predict, but I am fairly certain the declining trend will continue for the c/o 2016. If the 5.9% decline in June translates into around a 6% decline for the October/December administrations, we'll be seeing around 1/3rd of the applicant pool decrease over the course of 3 years. And the remaining applicants are probably going to be way more picky about scholarships. Call me sinister, but I am happy that law schools aren't able to rip off applicants indefinitely.

You guys shouldn't hate on TTTT's so much. I'm thinking about going to one.

My bad. Word of advice though: if you want to maximize your acceptance and job prospects, you have to do well on the LSAT writing section and then go into international law.

[rglifberg]

Do you think this will mean more acceptances for reach schools?

[hung jury]

You guys think this trend is going to hold up for c/o 2017?

Basically impossible to predict, but I am fairly certain the declining trend will continue for the c/o 2016. If the 5.9% decline in June translates into around a 6% decline for the October/December administrations, we'll be seeing around 1/3rd of the applicant pool decrease over the course of 3 years.

At worst I think things will level off. It's hard to imagine a significant uptick in applicants with (1) increased transparency (2) an absolutely dismal legal job market (3) a slowly recovering job market in the economy as a whole (4) the now constant media attention given to the law school problem (5) the very likely closure of a few schools that should draw some national attention.

[2014]

Do you think this will mean more acceptances for reach schools?

Yes, unless schools slash class sizes by a ton. Either way you win though because less law grads for the same or more jobs is good for everyone.

[CanadianWolf]

They may no longer be "reach schools" as their numbers decline.

[justonemoregame]

You guys think this trend is going to hold up for c/o 2017?

Basically impossible to predict, but I am fairly certain the declining trend will continue for the c/o 2016. If the 5.9% decline in June translates into around a 6% decline for the October/December administrations, we'll be seeing around 1/3rd of the applicant pool decrease over the course of 3 years.

At worst I think things will level off. It's hard to imagine a significant uptick in applicants with (1) increased transparency (2) an absolutely dismal legal job market (3) a slowly recovering job market in the economy as a whole (4) the now constant media attention given to the law school problem (5) the very likely closure of a few schools that should draw some national attention.

and (6) increasing tuition rates despite 1-5

[AllDangle]

LSAT medians are probably going to be down across the board this year, potentially into the T14. Depends how much schools cut class sizes.

Does anyone think this downward trend in the number of applicants will also affect the GPA medians (potentially at T14 schools)?

[2014]

LSAT medians are probably going to be down across the board this year, potentially into the T14. Depends how much schools cut class sizes.

Does anyone think this downward trend in the number of applicants will also affect the GPA medians (potentially at T14 schools)?

Every T4-14 has taken bigger splitters this year than traditionally so you have to think GPA medians are even more likely to drop than the LSAT ones.

[CanadianWolf]

Duke, Illinois & George Mason are three tier one law schools which experienced notable declines (above 10%) in enrollment according to the article.

[amoricaorbust]

I know that UT didn't keep their traditionally strict GPA floor of 3.5 for non-URM's this cycle. They also offered admission to some who had been flat out rejected earlier in the cycle. Take from that what you will.

[lovejopd]

LSAT medians are probably going to be down across the board this year, potentially into the T14. Depends how much schools cut class sizes.

When can we know the new LSAT and GPA for sure? Is it already out there?

[justonemoregame]

LSAT medians are probably going to be down across the board this year, potentially into the T14. Depends how much schools cut class sizes.

When can we know the new LSAT and GPA for sure? Is it already out there?

Should get leaked out after orientation, when the numbers are revealed to many entering classes.

[2014]

Last year a thread went up around the end of August to collate the new info.

[NeedADrink]

Telling the incoming class they're dumber than the last incoming class seems like it will be an awkward moment.