U. of Illinois Law suspends Dean of Admissions Forum

[CanadianWolf]

Wasn't the drop from 168 to 163 ? Although you may be referring to last year's median compared to this year's, and not to the misreported number.

[Wart]

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[Wart]

Wasn't the drop from 168 to 163 ?

No, but it feels like it. The drop was from 167 to 163. The 168 was the fudged median. 167 was last years true median, at least for now.

[Aqualibrium]

So...


Don't go to UIUC if you're accepted? How will this affect the reputation of the law school? T1 to T2? Possible?

Their medians, coupled with the decline of the Chicago market puts them squarely in the low t1 - t2 range imo.

I think that's a bit extreme and unlikely. Drop? Of course. T2 status? Doubt it. Willing to make a wager? I'm thinking my student loans for yours? muahah

I wasn't talking about an actual reflection in the physical rankings. Just about where reality puts them. I don't know how far along you are in school, but I stopped caring about the rankings after going through 1L OCI...

[Aqualibrium]

Wasn't the drop from 168 to 163 ?

No, but it feels like it. The drop was from 167 to 163. The 168 was the fudged median. 167 was last years true fudged median, at least for now.

[Mickey Quicknumbers]

Wasn't the drop from 168 to 163 ?

No, but it feels like it. The drop was from 167 to 163. The 168 was the fudged median. 167 was last years true fudged median, at least for now.

[citation needed]

[Wart]

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[CanadianWolf]

Illinois applications may decrease in quality & quantity, but many will still apply in light of no application fee & generous scholarship awards. Plus, in-state tuition to the state flagship law school should also keep applications coming in. Oddly, lower medians plus no app fee may generate wider interest in this Tier One law school.

[shoeshine]

state flagship law school

I don't think this means much in a state with two t-14 law schools. Also, non-disgraced IU-Bloomington, Iowa, and WUSTL are not geographically far from Illinois residents.

[CanadianWolf]

It may to residents of Illinois because of lower resident tuition rates.

[Helmholtz]

state flagship law school

I don't think this means much in a state with two t-14 law schools.

And a third that feeds pretty heavily into it as well. (UofM, after all, is only a four-hour bus ride away from downtown Chicago)

[Wart]

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[CanadianWolf]

Sounds both serious & ongoing. Thanks for the update.

P.S. Any discussion about employment data accuracy ?

[blurbz]

If I can make it, I'll be going to one of the later meetings but I don't know that I'll actually get there.

Did Smith say if it was a mistake or intentional? (I know what everyone, myself included, believes, but I'm curious what Smith said.)

Did you get a sense for whether or not Smith believes past years were falsified?

[CanadianWolf]

If it was simply a mistake, then why would prior years data be reviewed ? "The data was falsified..." suggests an intentional act, not a mistake.

[crumpetsandtea]

If it was simply a mistake, then why would prior years data be reviewed ?

For the sake of transparency?

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[Wart]

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[JCougar]

Because of the way the numbers work ("just get 50th percentile as high as possible, even if even the 49th percentiles are vastly shittier numbers"), small variations in yield can fuck up medians.

Entirely possible given that what's being reported is the median, not the mean. If you're traditionally cutting it close with the medians (i.e. maybe your 40th percentile is still only a 163 and it jumps around the 45th percentile from the reverse splitters to the splitters), there's a drop in applications across the board, some of your above-both-75ths big money admits turn you down for other schools, and you have a particularly crappy yield among splitters, a one-year drop like this is not out of the question.

It's possible that the average LSAT/GPA for the school is pretty close for last year and this year while the median had a huge drop.

163 was the 25th percentile last year. It's virtually impossible for it also to have been the 45th percentile as well, given that they only accept 163s with a 3.8 GPA and above. Were last year's statistics accurate, you would have seen probably a bit of overrun on the LSAT median. Perhaps the 47th or 48th percentile were still 167. No honest dean is going to run the class down to the wire so that if only one person drops out when they get off a T14 waitlist, the median crashes.

Then you got a bunch of 166-164 people above the GPA median. These people have to take up at least another 10-15% of the class.

To top it off, the class was about 10% smaller this year, which should have made it even easier to meet their median. Even with a 5% drop in matriculation of students above median, they should have been able to maintain the exact same median.

It's possible for the median to crash by 4 points over last year, but I'd put it in the "less likely than not" category. I'd bet the last year or two this stuff was going on as well. Last year's statistics are just as suspicious.

[Cornelius]

Because of the way the numbers work ("just get 50th percentile as high as possible, even if even the 49th percentiles are vastly shittier numbers"), small variations in yield can fuck up medians.

Entirely possible given that what's being reported is the median, not the mean. If you're traditionally cutting it close with the medians (i.e. maybe your 40th percentile is still only a 163 and it jumps around the 45th percentile from the reverse splitters to the splitters), there's a drop in applications across the board, some of your above-both-75ths big money admits turn you down for other schools, and you have a particularly crappy yield among splitters, a one-year drop like this is not out of the question.

It's possible that the average LSAT/GPA for the school is pretty close for last year and this year while the median had a huge drop.

163 was the 25th percentile last year. It's virtually impossible for it also to have been the 45th percentile as well, given that they only accept 163s with a 3.8 GPA and above. Were last year's statistics accurate, you would have seen probably a bit of overrun on the LSAT median. Perhaps the 47th or 48th percentile were still 167. No honest dean is going to run the class down to the wire so that if only one person drops out when they get off a T14 waitlist, the median crashes.

Then you got a bunch of 166-164 people above the GPA median. These people have to take up at least another 10-15% of the class.

To top it off, the class was about 10% smaller this year, which should have made it even easier to meet their median. Even with a 5% drop in matriculation of students above median, they should have been able to maintain the exact same median.

It's possible for the median to crash by 4 points over last year, but I'd put it in the "less likely than not" category. I'd bet the last year or two this stuff was going on as well. Last year's statistics are just as suspicious.

I would characterize it as less likely too, but it's still possible. Couple wacky yield numbers with an unexpected decrease in applications and possibly some incompetence, and I could see it happening.

[NancyBotwin]

Did Smith say if it was a mistake or intentional? (I know what everyone, myself included, believes, but I'm curious what Smith said.)

Did you get a sense for whether or not Smith believes past years were falsified?

He specifically said that the data was changed after the class of 2014 was solidified, which seems to be a clear indication that is was intentional.

That is not what he said. He did not say the data was changed. He said it was entered into the data management system after the class was solidified. That does not necessarily indicate intent. It could simply have been a data entry mistake.

[CanadianWolf]

Is it common to suspend someone for a "data entry mistake" ?

[NancyBotwin]

Is it common to suspend someone for a "data entry mistake" ?

When you don't actually know whether it was a mistake or not? Sure. They have to cover their asses.

[Wart]

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[CanadianWolf]

But if it was simply a data entry mistake, why investigate prior years & why not lift the suspension ?