RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here! Forum

[williammmc]

Why do so many people use the word oversupply as opposed to surplus? Is it a contextual thing? I would really like to know.

If I may bring something to the conversation from the more delusional facet of prospectives, I would like to ask about the argument referring to the great discrepancy. I am under the impression that the 30k to 45k argument is a relatively weak one offered by the LATimes, it really disregards a fair number of factors doesn't it?

It must disregard public interest, it must disregard international work, it must disregard private firms hiring traditionally and so forth. I imagine that the argument's statistics are based on a compilation of website reports, professional classified ads, and paid estimators. I only say this because that argument was made prior to the recent census and prior to any other reliable nationwide statement (and if it is based on USNews that is even more laughable). If I am wrong, someone strike me down with their lightning bolt of knowledge.

I say this simply because the state of things cannot be summed up in any one article or by any one entity, the amount of information required to make that estimate is too great, and putting forth depressing statements that affect many thousands of people is the definition of sexy news.

[JustBelieve]

Don't even worry about it. Everything will be alright. Good luck to you! You will be fine. The economy will turn around, as long as you study hard in law school, you will shine and the economy will not affect you.

dig this: http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/2009/03/30/s ... lp-wanted/

And read in tandem with this: --LinkRemoved--


Looks like Biglaw is finally paring back pay. You all realize this "economy" in general is screwed, right? Check CNBC this morning, they project almost 800,000 jobs down the crapper for March when the official stats are released on Friday. This shit is going to hit Depression-era levels soon. Bad news for unproductive paper-churning geeks in office towers, that's for sure.

Another funny ha-ha- Georgetown grads being "recruited" for doc review shitlaw gigs in armpit areas of West Virginia!
--LinkRemoved--

I can't imagine the sadness of a G'Town grad having to take a shitjob like that, but it apparently is happening. And current events shape future trends. Many seem to think these economic times are some kind of hiccup, rather than what they are: full cardiac arrest for a once great nation that replaced manufacturing and respectable blue-collar trades with white collar sweatshops full of grossly overpaid wankers "structuring" CDOs and other garbage which will plunge us into the Greatest Depression.

[niederbomb]

Bump!

Sorry!

I have a theory after examining some of the data at lawschooltransparency.com. Hopefully, someone who has studied statistics can improve this list.

1) The % of graduates who do not report salary is closely correlated with the rank of the law school. For example, Hofstra, Lewis & Clark, and Appalacian are a few TTT's I checked that have around 50% of the class not reporting salary.

Think about it: If you got an awesome job right out of law school, wouldn't you just love to fill out the form with your awesome results and put it in the mail box with a sunny grin on your face? If you were working at the local Cracker Barrel, do you think you would even bother to return the employment survey?

I propose that we count close to 100% of the "gray areas" on these salary bar graphs as "unemployed or underemployed."

2) My theory is that we can use the % of graduates who report their salaries to compare employment prospects among T-14 schools.

Wouldn't it also make sense that T-14 schools with geographic proximity to a large legal market (e.g. Columbia) would fare better than those not so geographically lucky (e.g. Penn, Michigan)?

Here is a list of all the T-14 with the % who reported their salary and whether the school is geographically close to NY, DC, or Chicago AND is the top-ranked school in its area. "L" stands for "lucky" (near one of these places) and "U" stands for "unlucky."

1. Yale (74%). U
2. Harvard (86%). U/L (Harvard is Harvard + has an established place in NYC even if it's not in NYC)
3. Stanford (63%) U
4. Columbia (92%) L/
5. NYU (83%) L/
6. University of Chicago (97%) L
7. UC Berkeley (79%) U
8. University of Pennsylvania (78%) U
9. University of Michigan (77%) U
10. University of Virginia (81%) L
11. Northwestern University (68%) U
12. Duke University (88%) U
13. Cornell University (78%) U
14. Georgetown University (79%) U
15. Vanderbilt 68% U
16. UT Austin 68% U
17. UCLA 58% U

According to this theory, the best law schools to go to from an employment perspective are Columbia, Chicago, Harvard, NYU and, for some reason, Duke. Virginia is not far behind either.

In the T-14, it's a bad choice to go to Michigan, Georgetown, Penn, Cornell, Northwestern and, for some reason, Yale and Stanford.


EDIT: Here are some TTT schools:

* American U (47%)
*Albany (42%)
*Ave Marie (38%)
*University of Miamie (28%)
*28% SUNY
*U of Hawaii (34%)
....and so on

Since I have a life, I am not going to put in the data for all the TTT schools, but I think if I did, the pattern would bear itself out.

[fatduck]

snip

I wonder if YHS perhaps don't seek out responses to the employment surveys as aggressively as lower-ranked schools?

[Doritos]

...it's a bad choice to go to...Yale and Stanford.

lol

[queenlizzie13]

Bump!

Sorry!

I have a theory after examining some of the data at lawschooltransparency.com. Hopefully, someone who has studied statistics can improve this list.

1) The % of graduates who do not report salary is closely correlated with the rank of the law school. For example, Hofstra, Lewis & Clark, and Appalacian are a few TTT's I checked that have around 50% of the class not reporting salary.

Think about it: If you got an awesome job right out of law school, wouldn't you just love to fill out the form with your awesome results and put it in the mail box with a sunny grin on your face? If you were working at the local Cracker Barrel, do you think you would even bother to return the employment survey?

I propose that we count close to 100% of the "gray areas" on these salary bar graphs as "unemployed or underemployed."

2) My theory is that we can use the % of graduates who report their salaries to compare employment prospects among T-14 schools.

Wouldn't it also make sense that T-14 schools with geographic proximity to a large legal market (e.g. Columbia) would fare better than those not so geographically lucky (e.g. Penn, Michigan)?

Here is a list of all the T-14 with the % who reported their salary and whether the school is geographically close to NY, DC, or Chicago AND is the top-ranked school in its area. "L" stands for "lucky" (near one of these places) and "U" stands for "unlucky."

1. Yale (74%). U
2. Harvard (86%). U/L (Harvard is Harvard + has an established place in NYC even if it's not in NYC)
3. Stanford (63%) U
4. Columbia (92%) L/
5. NYU (83%) L/
6. University of Chicago (97%) L
7. UC Berkeley (79%) U
8. University of Pennsylvania (78%) U
9. University of Michigan (77%) U
10. University of Virginia (81%) L
11. Northwestern University (68%) U
12. Duke University (88%) U
13. Cornell University (78%) U
14. Georgetown University (79%) U
15. Vanderbilt 68% U
16. UT Austin 68% U
17. UCLA 58% U

According to this theory, the best law schools to go to from an employment perspective are Columbia, Chicago, Harvard, NYU and, for some reason, Duke. Virginia is not far behind either.

In the T-14, it's a bad choice to go to Michigan, Georgetown, Penn, Cornell, Northwestern and, for some reason, Yale and Stanford.


EDIT: Here are some TTT schools:

* American U (47%)
*Albany (42%)
*Ave Marie (38%)
*University of Miamie (28%)
*28% SUNY
*U of Hawaii (34%)
....and so on

Since I have a life, I am not going to put in the data for all the TTT schools, but I think if I did, the pattern would bear itself out.

Duke is also the top law school in NC, in addition to begin a national school. I think that is why there are more jobs there. The California schools have worse placement because there are so many CA schools and not enough jobs. Unemployment is 9% for those with a college degree in CA and 12%+ overall. For people my age, the unemployment rate is closer to 20-25%.

Georgetown is in a saturated market as well, being in DC. NY is a bigger market. Yale is a bit surprising though. I would think it would be higher, but maybe the Connecticut location doesn't do it any favors for job placement.

[blsingindisguise]

Yale and Penn are closer to NYC than U.Va is to DC.

[Arbiter213]

Something I've been wondering: Assume for a minute that the your legal education is covered to a T20. Is the hiring market THAT bad as compared to trying to find a job out of undergrad with a liberal arts degree?

I decided on law school over graduate school in my field, and honestly, if you guys think legal hiring is bad, look at hiring in academia.

I'm also curious- how much of a role does nepotism and family/friend connections play in hiring? If you're well connected at major firms and are fairly sure you have the total cost of your law school education covered, is it still such a bad proposition?

I recognize that the legal market has a HUGE surplus of would-be attorneys, and that hiring is in a major crunch right now. I'm just curious if the situation is vastly worse than people looking for jobs straight out of undergrad as it is.

[vanwinkle]

Something I've been wondering: Assume for a minute that the your legal education is covered to a T20. Is the hiring market THAT bad as compared to trying to find a job out of undergrad with a liberal arts degree?

If by "your legal education is covered" you mean full tuition is paid, and you'd be going to a T20 or better school, then that does change things significantly.

The thing is that going to law school is best viewed as a cost/benefit analysis, and the reason for the dire warnings is that to many people the cost is so high and the potential benefits are so low. A lot of people seem willing to take on $180K in debt to go to a lower-tier law school, but do so believing they have a decent chance at making $160K when they graduate. This just isn't feasible ITE, and it was becoming infeasible even before the economy bottomed out, as the number of law grads was expanding even as the number of law jobs remained stable even pre-ITE.

Two things can push the cost/benefit analysis in your favor, though:

1) Go to a high-ranked school. This increases the likelihood of achieving a "benefit" from going, since you're much more likely to be able to find a job. By this I mean any job at all; even if you have to take a $40k/yr shitlaw job somewhere, you're still finding work based on your degree.

2) Getting your education paid for. This reduces the "cost" in terms of money (though not in time since you still put in the three years you could be working or getting educated elsewhere). Full tuition for three years reduces what you'll owe by about $120k. If you're having to take loans for cost of living, you're still looking at borrowing something like $60k over three years, but that's at least a more manageable amount of debt.

You're talking about an event that both increases the potential benefit and lowers the overall cost, so it's less risky for you. It's still risky, to be sure; there are still many people at T20s who're struggling to find jobs right now, and you could still incur debt or waste three years of your life for something you'll never use. But it's definitely less risky than the huge debt for below-T20 schools that a lot of people are doing.

[RVP11]

Yale is a bit surprising though. I would think it would be higher, but maybe the Connecticut location doesn't do it any favors for job placement.

LOL0L?

[pppokerface]

Bump!

Sorry!

I have a theory after examining some of the data at lawschooltransparency.com. Hopefully, someone who has studied statistics can improve this list.

1) The % of graduates who do not report salary is closely correlated with the rank of the law school. For example, Hofstra, Lewis & Clark, and Appalacian are a few TTT's I checked that have around 50% of the class not reporting salary.

Think about it: If you got an awesome job right out of law school, wouldn't you just love to fill out the form with your awesome results and put it in the mail box with a sunny grin on your face? If you were working at the local Cracker Barrel, do you think you would even bother to return the employment survey?

I propose that we count close to 100% of the "gray areas" on these salary bar graphs as "unemployed or underemployed."

2) My theory is that we can use the % of graduates who report their salaries to compare employment prospects among T-14 schools.

Wouldn't it also make sense that T-14 schools with geographic proximity to a large legal market (e.g. Columbia) would fare better than those not so geographically lucky (e.g. Penn, Michigan)?

Here is a list of all the T-14 with the % who reported their salary and whether the school is geographically close to NY, DC, or Chicago AND is the top-ranked school in its area. "L" stands for "lucky" (near one of these places) and "U" stands for "unlucky."

1. Yale (74%). U
2. Harvard (86%). U/L (Harvard is Harvard + has an established place in NYC even if it's not in NYC)
3. Stanford (63%) U
4. Columbia (92%) L/
5. NYU (83%) L/
6. University of Chicago (97%) L
7. UC Berkeley (79%) U
8. University of Pennsylvania (78%) U
9. University of Michigan (77%) U
10. University of Virginia (81%) L
11. Northwestern University (68%) U
12. Duke University (88%) U
13. Cornell University (78%) U
14. Georgetown University (79%) U
15. Vanderbilt 68% U
16. UT Austin 68% U
17. UCLA 58% U

According to this theory, the best law schools to go to from an employment perspective are Columbia, Chicago, Harvard, NYU and, for some reason, Duke. Virginia is not far behind either.

In the T-14, it's a bad choice to go to Michigan, Georgetown, Penn, Cornell, Northwestern and, for some reason, Yale and Stanford.


EDIT: Here are some TTT schools:

* American U (47%)
*Albany (42%)
*Ave Marie (38%)
*University of Miamie (28%)
*28% SUNY
*U of Hawaii (34%)
....and so on

Since I have a life, I am not going to put in the data for all the TTT schools, but I think if I did, the pattern would bear itself out.

Duke is also the top law school in NC, in addition to begin a national school. I think that is why there are more jobs there. The California schools have worse placement because there are so many CA schools and not enough jobs. Unemployment is 9% for those with a college degree in CA and 12%+ overall. For people my age, the unemployment rate is closer to 20-25%.

Georgetown is in a saturated market as well, being in DC. NY is a bigger market. Yale is a bit surprising though. I would think it would be higher, but maybe the Connecticut location doesn't do it any favors for job placement.

Isn't that % of those who report the salary though? I don't think Yale's location is going to hurt its job prospects

[scribblehead]

Read it and weep:

http://www.abajournal.com/news/article/ ... _stats_sh/


Just think kids- all that studying and misery to end up in a dead-end temp gig doing doc review for LESS per hour than truck drivers and other blue-collar GED types earn.

here's a nice blog that explains in detail the wonderful temp gigs in your future:

http://temporaryattorney.blogspot.com/2 ... -hour.html

[brosef stalin]

25% of grads from which schools, OP?

This isn't news. This is typical JD Underground shit.

[TommyK]

yawn...

[YCrevolution]

..

[09042014]

Merged into Recession megapost.

The reason for the recession megapost (a flood of JDU posts) is gone, so should be the megapost.

[YCrevolution]

..

[denbeaux]

The reason for the recession megapost (a flood of JDU posts) is gone, so should be the megapost.

Yeah, looks like everything is fine:

--LinkRemoved--



Recession over! Law is again a great career choice!

[JazzOne]

The reason for the recession megapost (a flood of JDU posts) is gone, so should be the megapost.

Yeah, looks like everything is fine:

--LinkRemoved--



Recession over! Law is again a great career choice!

Nevermind. The douchebags are back at it again. Looks like we still need the megapost.

[nygrrrl]

The reason for the recession megapost (a flood of JDU posts) is gone, so should be the megapost.

Yeah, looks like everything is fine:

--LinkRemoved--



Recession over! Law is again a great career choice!

Nevermind. The douchebags are back at it again. Looks like we still need the megapost.

noted

[kkklick]

There are too many law schools in the U.S. plain and simple.

[beach_terror]

There are too many law schools in the U.S. plain and simple.

The information in your post was new and exciting, thank you for sharing.

[kkklick]

There are too many law schools in the U.S. plain and simple.

The information in your post was new and exciting, thank you for sharing.

Well how many recession threads are there? How many posts are there asking about what the problem is with the US legal market? Whether or not it has been mentioned before has nothing to do with anything.

Or you're trying to be funny.

= FAIL

[JazzOne]

There are too many law schools in the U.S. plain and simple.

The information in your post was new and exciting, thank you for sharing.

Well how many recession threads are there? How many posts are there asking about what the problem is with the US legal market? Whether or not it has been mentioned before has nothing to do with anything.

Or you're trying to be funny.

= FAIL

Whether or not it has been mentioned before? Where the hell have you been? Oh, you were trying to be informative.

= FAIL

[kkklick]

There are too many law schools in the U.S. plain and simple.

The information in your post was new and exciting, thank you for sharing.

Well how many recession threads are there? How many posts are there asking about what the problem is with the US legal market? Whether or not it has been mentioned before has nothing to do with anything.

Or you're trying to be funny.

= FAIL

Whether or not it has been mentioned before? Where the hell have you been? Oh, you were trying to be informative.

= FAIL

Got nothing better to do than to defend people on internet forums, that's a fail in itself. No I didn't bother to read 39 pages of whining, so get off my back and go harass someone else who might care.