2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest (Winners Announced) Forum

[North]

The Rules for Grading

• Everybody starts off with 100 points. I'll compare your submitted list to the USNWR list and deduct a point for: (1) every school that isn't at the rank it should be and (2) every school that is at a rank it shouldn't be.

So if I said

7. Berekely
8. UVA

But in reality they flipped, so the right answer would be

7. UVA
8. Berk

Then I would lose four points (UVA is not at 7, UVA is at 8, Berk is not at 8, Berk is at 7), but if I said

7. Whittier
8. UVA

and the correct answer turned out, for some strange reason, to be

7. Berekely
8. UVA

Then I would only lose two points?

*does some math*

So I'm guaranteed 50 points if I do this:

• _1. Cooley
  _2. Whittier
  _3. CUNY
  _4. NYLS
  _5. Samford
  _6. North Dakota
  _7. Akrom
  _8. Hamline
  _9. Pepperdine
  10. Regent
  11. Pace
  12. Texas Tech
  13. UC Irvine
  14. Dayton
  15. Mercy
  16. Idaho
  17. San Francisco
  18. South Dakota
  19. U D.C.
  20. Wyoming
  21. Toledo
  22. Hawaii
  23. William Mitchell
  24. Kansas City
  25. Stetson

[/list]

Bring on dem pistachios!

Damn... Okay I guess I'll, you know, put some thought into it. Also, now accepting suggestions for the soon-to-be-ammended rules.

[Skye]

So I'm guaranteed 50 points if I do this:

Then I win with 51 points by taking that long shot of placing Yale at #1.

Ooooh wait, opps, I am not allowed to play. DARN! (Congrats 2 U).

[TheThriller]

50 points isn't going to win this. 50 points is bush league.

[rebexness]

You could do:

1 point for having each top 25 school listed in your top 25.
and
1 point for having it in the right place.

No penalties for wrong schools because MATH.

Seems less complicated.

[DoveBodyWash]

• _1. Yale
  _2. Harvard
  _3. Stanford
  _4. Columbia
  _5. Chicago
  _6. NYU
  _7. Penn
  10.Michigan
  10.Virginia
  10. Berkeley
  11. Duke
  12. Northwestern
  13. Cornell
  14. Georgetown
  15. UCLA
  16. Vanderbilt
  17. Texas
  18. USC
  19. WUSTL
  20. GW
  20.Minnesota
  22. Emory
  23. Notre Dame
  24. University of Washington
  25. W&L

[Shmoopy]

I think you should just deduct the number of places that each school is off by, to give accuracy some weight.

[North]

Where's Regulus? I feel like Regulus to come up with Some kind of flawless constitution-esque system in like 45 seconds. Do people ever bet on the postseason College football AP poll? I feel like the rules for that would be helpful here.

So I'm guaranteed 50 points if I do this:

Then I win with 51 points by taking that long shot of placing Yale at #1.

Ooooh wait, opps, I am not allowed to play. DARN! (Congrats 2 U).

Lol at this schtick. Please don't scatbomb the thread, dude.

[andy261]

Wait why was mine skipped over??

[North]

I think you should just deduct the number of places that each school is off by, to give accuracy some weight.

This one seems legit. TripTrip, Could you get around this one?

[North]

Wait why was mine skipped over??

I'm still doing work stuff at work. I'll up date when I get back to doing nothing.

[Shmoopy]

I think you should just deduct the number of places that each school is off by, to give accuracy some weight.

This one seems legit. TripTrip, Could you get around this one?

You would also need to figure out the number of points to deduct for not having a school in the list at all. 24 points sounds a little harsh, but it makes sense because this is the maximum number you would deduct if the school were on the list (e.g. if someone put #1 at #25). Otherwise, a list of TTTs like TripTip's would receive 0 deductions and therefore a perfect score.

[TripTrip]

I think you should just deduct the number of places that each school is off by, to give accuracy some weight.

This one seems legit. TripTrip, Could you get around this one?

You would also need to figure out the number of points to deduct for not having a school in the list at all. 24 points sounds a little harsh, but it makes sense because this is the maximum number you would deduct if the school were on the list (e.g. if someone put #1 at #25). Otherwise, a list of TTTs like TripTip's would receive 0 deductions and therefore a perfect score.

Shmoopy's right. If it were 24pts, this contest would just be about who's going to be 15-25. ~5pts seems like a happy median to fix that though.

[Shmoopy]

5 pts would probably be good. If it were 24, then someone getting everything right except for a #25 that came out of nowhere would get screwed.

[TripTrip]

5 pts would probably be good. If it were 24, then someone getting everything right except for a #25 that came out of nowhere would get screwed.

ASU

[North]

Proposed Rules:

Everyone starts off with 100 points. A penalty equal to the difference between a school's USNWR rank and its rank in your submission will be assessed for each incorrectly placed school. A penalty of five (5) points will be assessed for each school that is present in the USNWR T25 but absent from your submission. A penalty of five (5) points will be assessed for each school that is present in your submission but absent from the USNWR T25.



Question: Should we weight penalties for mistakes in the T14 twice as much as penalties in T15-25? Priorities, you know.

And do the proposed rules fly?

[TripTrip]

A penalty of five (5) points will be assessed for each school that is present in the USNWR T25 but absent from your submission. A penalty of five (5) points will be assessed for each school that is present in your submission but absent from the USNWR T25. [/b]

You only need one of those. Otherwise you lose 2 points for mixing up #24 and #25, but you lose 10 points for mixing up #25 and #26.

And I vote yes for the T14 stip.

That, or just do a T15 contest. You have to guess what #15 will be, then of those people who guess correctly for #15, whoever gets the ordering of the T14 closest wins.

[Shmoopy]

I agree that those last two rules are redundant. If you missed a school in the T25, then you automatically have a school on your list that's not supposed to be in the T25, effectively making the penalty 10 pts instead of 5.

[alwayssunnyinfl]

lol I love that Skye only posts when she's drunk.

[North]

A penalty of five (5) points will be assessed for each school that is present in the USNWR T25 but absent from your submission. A penalty of five (5) points will be assessed for each school that is present in your submission but absent from the USNWR T25. [/b]

You only need one of those. Otherwise you lose 2 points for mixing up #24 and #25, but you lose 10 points for mixing up #25 and #26.

And I vote yes for the T14 stip.
.

Done. I thought about just doing the T14, but I figured there wasn't enough variability in those ranks to encourage diverse submissions. I think doubling the value of T14 penalties will work nicely, though.

[Crowing]

I think you should just deduct the number of places that each school is off by, to give accuracy some weight.

This one seems legit. TripTrip, Could you get around this one?

You would also need to figure out the number of points to deduct for not having a school in the list at all. 24 points sounds a little harsh, but it makes sense because this is the maximum number you would deduct if the school were on the list (e.g. if someone put #1 at #25). Otherwise, a list of TTTs like TripTip's would receive 0 deductions and therefore a perfect score.

Shmoopy's right. If it were 24pts, this contest would just be about who's going to be 15-25. ~5pts seems like a happy median to fix that though.

I think the scoring should still depend on the spots off - North will just have to reference the full USNWR rankings. I don't think it's fair to penalize 24 or even 5 points if somebody lists a school #25 but it misses the list because it was #26.

[TripTrip]

I think the scoring should still depend on the spots off - North will just have to reference the full USNWR rankings. I don't think it's fair to penalize 24 or even 5 points if somebody lists a school #25 but it misses the list because it was #26.

Ah. Clearly I'm not very good at thinking outside the box.

[Crowing]

Proposed Rules:

Everyone starts off with 0 points. A penalty equal to the difference between a school's USNWR rank and its rank in your submission will be assessed for each incorrectly placed school. The poster with the least negative score wins.

This would be simple and effective imo (though I'm prob missing something here....)

100 seems like an arbitrary and fairly meaningless score to start at. By starting at zero, everybody has a negative score so it's less confusing (rather than some positive and some negative). Plus I think it's more fitting that way that even if you do perfectly the best you can score is zero, seeing as this is the TLS hivemind we are talking about.

The one possible confusion I can think of is if you list a TTTT; since it's unranked you can't subtract a finite amount. But then you can just give a 150 point penalty or something; it's not like anybody who lists a TTTT is seriously trying to win anyway.

[Dmini7]

Proposed Rules:

Everyone starts off with 0 points. A penalty equal to the difference between a school's USNWR rank and its rank in your submission will be assessed for each incorrectly placed school. The poster with the least negative score wins.

This would be simple and effective imo (though I'm prob missing something here....)

100 seems like an arbitrary and fairly meaningless score to start at. By starting at zero, everybody has a negative score so it's less confusing (rather than some positive and some negative). Plus I think it's more fitting that way that even if you do perfectly the best you can score is zero, seeing as this is the TLS hivemind we are talking about.

The one possible confusion I can think of is if you list a TTTT; since it's unranked you can't subtract a finite amount. But then you can just give a 150 point penalty or something; it's not like anybody who lists a TTTT is seriously trying to win anyway.

You could have multiple prizes. One for the individual who gets the most right(Or perfect score is someone secretly works for USNWR).
And one for the person who had the closest score to 0 assuming there were no perfect scores. If there were a perfect score then I guess they win both prizes...

[buddyt]

_1. Yale
_2. Stanford
_3. Harvard
_4. Columbia
_5. Chicago
_6. NYU
_7. Penn
_8. Berkeley
_9. UVA
10. Duke
11. Northwestern
12. Michigan
13. Cornell
14. GULC
15. UCLA
16. UT
17. USC
18. Vanderbilt
19. WUSTL
20. U Minnesota
21. U Washington
22. Emory
23. W&L
24. GW
25. BU

[coldweather]

I'll throw an idea out there for points (even though I cant play...)

1-14
10 points for correct placement

1-6
4 points per correct school

7-14
2 points per correct school

15-25
6 points for correct placement

15-25
1 point per correct school