RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here! Forum

[vanwinkle]

It's mind boggling to me that people think the recession is "over."

Any economic growth that takes place this year or in the next few years to come will be solely attributable to GOVERNMENT DEFICIT SPENDING which we will have to pay back via taxation eventually.

Just like what happened under Reagan!

[ruleser]

This helps put in perspective how what is happening in the job market in general - in terms we applicants can understand:

From CNN http://www.cnn.com/2009/OPINION/11/06/s ... index.html :
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, job openings declined from 4.4 million to 2.4 million and the number of officially unemployed persons grew from 7.5 million to 15.7 million, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

If the 15.7 million officially unemployed workers were to apply for those 2.4 million jobs, the chance of any one of them finding a job are about 15 percent, or roughly the same odds as being accepted to the University of Pennsylvania...

It gets worse. Another group excluded from the official unemployment report is the growing number of part-time workers who would prefer to have a full-time job. These workers are forced into part-time jobs or are forced to take part-time hours because no full-time work is available.

During the current recession, workers who are "part time for economic reasons" have grown from 4.6 million to 9.3million.

Adding part-time workers to the number of officially unemployed and the discouraged workers, as labor market expert Leo Hindery, Jr., has observed, results in a rise in the real unemployment rate to 19.2 percent, or 30.6 million people.

The odds of any one of these 30 million securing one of the 2.4 million full-time jobs available is 8 percent, the same as the admissions rate of the Ivy League gold standard, Harvard University

[BaiAilian2013]

have you looked at my user name? I'm a lawyer, idiot. Magna cum laude grad. Top ten percent.

From where? And when?

I would love to know this too.

Gonzaga, Class of 1978.

Wow, really? Well then.

[CE2JD]

Economic growth as reported by the government is a LIE:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33786428

[stateofbeasley]

Salaries continue to fall. Reed Smith slashes salaries to $110-130k. Billable hour requirements fall.

http://www.abajournal.com/news/how_low_ ... k_to_110k/

Reed Smith is cutting billing rates and pay by 20 percent for 51 new associates joining the firm’s U.S. offices in January.

The new starting pay will range from $130,000 in major markets to $110,000 in Pittsburgh, according to a press release (http://www.abajournal.com/files/REED_SMITH.pdf). At the same time, billable hours expectations for new associates will drop from 1,900 hours a year to 1,700 hours.
...

Global managing partner Gregory Jordan said the firm lowered salaries and billing rates in response to clients’ concerns about cutting the costs of legal services. “We wanted to send a clear message that we are listening,” he said in the press release.

This is what I've been hearing all along through the grapevine. Corporate clients were disgusted with paying hundreds of dollars an hour for associates who didn't know much. I know that some clients in Philadelphia explicitly told Morgan Lewis that they did not want first year associates working on any of their matters.

Some analysts see Biglaw salaries eventually falling into the $75-100k range.

That would make even T14 a difficult sell at current tuition rates. The TTT law schools wouldn't have a chance in that kind of environment.

[CE2JD]

Thinking the recession is over should qualify you for the Special Olympics*















*not to deem the Special Olympics by placing such idiots with comparably intelligent individuals

[daesonesb]

To me, this just constitutes a challenge. You literally need to be the best at what you are about to do to succeed in today's world. Thing is, if you do, then you'll come out of this recession more agile than the current high schoolers who will probably not face this job market.

The reason there are failed lawyers coming on here to cry and tell everyone to not even try is simple: Misery loves company. The idea that someone else will attempt what they did and succeed at it is so repellent to them that they're spending huge amounts of time trying to get others to not even try.

I guess I'm a little less worried than some on here because I have absolutely no plan to do biglaw. There are too many other things that are legitimately much more interesting to me that a reduced pay grade is worth it. If it means I've got to diversify my skill set past where it's at now (learn comp sci, finance, Chemistry, 4 languages, etc.), then I'll jump that hurdle when I come to it.

Just a personal opinion. Panic on.

[stateofbeasley]

The idea that someone else will attempt what they did and succeed at it is so repellent to them that they're spending huge amounts of time trying to get others to not even try.

I guess I'm a little less worried than some on here because I have absolutely no plan to do biglaw.

This is not about success and failure at the individual level.

This IS about personal responsibility and responsibility to society.

Every student that that takes out $150,000 in loans to attend some TTT, and then fails to repay those loans not only harms his or her own finances, but causes economic damage to society. Defaults drive up borrowing costs for other people, and deprive creditors of money that is due to them.

People need to make informed financial decisions. When people did not make informed decisions during the housing bubble, and bought more house than they could afford, it caused a huge financial mess.

Apply your statement to someone trying to convince their friend not to take out a huge subprime mortgage for a house in 2006/2007.

In the end, panic is irrelevant. The financial calculations always win.

[daesonesb]

what schools qualify as ttt? i've always wondered where people put the cutoff.

I mean... if someone goes to a state law school that isn't on the level of Penn or Michigan, sure they aren't going to have a chance at biglaw, but they do have decent job prospects in their respective state. AND, a state school program usually doesn't necessitate 150k in loans (unless you plan on needing 20 grand a year in living expenses).

Example: I could go to the university of Washington and pay what they estimate to be (including COLiving) 40 grand a year in state. That is based off of 25k for books and tuition.

Personally, I know for a fact I could live on less than 15 grand a school year. My rent now is 500 a month, and I live in victoria bc (expensive canadian city). I get by on something closer to 10 grand canadian a school year. Our price levels are way above that of seattle or similar sized cities. A beer at the bar here is $4.50!

Anyways, @ UW, I'd have great job prospects on the west coast. My friend at U Indianapolis will have better chances than me in indiana/kentucky/ohio, though his school is ranked lower than UW.

These aren't T 14's, but they're great regionally. Loans can be paid off slowly. People do it all the time, student loans especially. They usually have tax deductable interest rates, and low monthly payment options. As long as the idea of long term debt doesn't put one in a conniption fit... Personally I want mine paid off as fast as effing possible.

[laidoffjournalist]

TTT is anything outside of the Top 100. Yes?

[CE2JD]

TTT is anything outside of the Top 100. Yes?

TTT = all law schools ranked below the law school you attend

[stateofbeasley]

The mainstream media is catching on to the scam that is law school:

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/tough-ma ... id=9120629

Dozens of firms cut their summer associate programs earlier this spring, some by 30 to 50 percent, according to the National Association of Law Placement. As a group, the largest law firms in Texas that hired summer help took on 27 percent fewer associates than they did last year -- 683 compared with 930 in summer 2008, according to Texas Lawyer, publication for the Texas legal community.
...

Patricia White, dean of the University of Miami School of Law, advised prospective students not to "look to law school as a safe harbor" to wait out the economic storm, and even offered incentives to students willing to defer admission for a year.

Another law school, Southwestern Law in Los Angeles, is being up front about salary prospects. Bryant Garth, Southwestern's dean, tells students that they're in for a huge disappointment if they counted on starting salaries of $160,000 per year.
...

Instead, some graduates are now struggling to find jobs and pay off their debt of more than $200,000, in some cases, from law school.

In a recent blog posted on the Veritas Prep Web site, a company that offers graduate school application services, the director of admissions consulting emphasized that law school is not a panacea.

Most of the schools they talked about were elite schools. If those people are getting hammered in this job market, it is almost 100% certainty that people from lower tier schools are in dire straights.

[RVP11]

what schools qualify as ttt? i've always wondered where people put the cutoff.

I mean... if someone goes to a state law school that isn't on the level of Penn or Michigan, sure they aren't going to have a chance at biglaw, but they do have decent job prospects in their respective state. AND, a state school program usually doesn't necessitate 150k in loans (unless you plan on needing 20 grand a year in living expenses).

Example: I could go to the university of Washington and pay what they estimate to be (including COLiving) 40 grand a year in state. That is based off of 25k for books and tuition.

Personally, I know for a fact I could live on less than 15 grand a school year. My rent now is 500 a month, and I live in victoria bc (expensive canadian city). I get by on something closer to 10 grand canadian a school year. Our price levels are way above that of seattle or similar sized cities. A beer at the bar here is $4.50!

Anyways, @ UW, I'd have great job prospects on the west coast. My friend at U Indianapolis will have better chances than me in indiana/kentucky/ohio, though his school is ranked lower than UW.

These aren't T 14's, but they're great regionally. Loans can be paid off slowly. People do it all the time, student loans especially. They usually have tax deductable interest rates, and low monthly payment options. As long as the idea of long term debt doesn't put one in a conniption fit... Personally I want mine paid off as fast as effing possible.

Dude, there's a blog section on this website if you want to go write down your self-assurances over there.

[daesonesb]

They aren't self assurances. I just dont like having an aneurysm about something that's out of my control. A bad job market isn't permanent, and its course is really something which can't be predicted. What I can control is myself. By that, I mean I'll do the best I can at something I've wanted to do for a long time.

If I wind up not being able to get a job right out of whatever school I attend, sure that would be upsetting. Nonetheless, I'm not going to let that risk deter me from something that I want to do. Fear of failure is a paralyzing and self fufilling characteristic. People can generally sense it in someone. It's the main reason guys have trouble talking to girls sober, and the main reason people eff up job interviews when their qualifications have them as a shoe in.

At the end of the day, even if I dont get a good paying job as a lawyer EVER in my entire life, I wont think of law school as a waste. All it will mean to me is that I tried to do something as a young man and it didn't work out for me. Really I'm not going to let a bad job market keep me out of something I knew I wanted to do since I was a kid. It'd be pretty short sighted of me not to try.

That said, for people who aren't sure about law school, and look at it like a money making opportunity, then I agree that law school isn't your best bet. It'd be better to get an MD, BSC.Engineering or a masters degree in Comp Sci. As far as being rich goes, however, law school has never been the best bet, just historically one of the safer ones.

[RVP11]

Again, let me point you to the blog forum.

[CE2JD]

A few more depressing comments about the legal market:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34204060

[98234872348]

TTT is anything outside of the Top 100. Yes?

TTT = all law schools [strike]ranked below the law school you attend[/strike] period

FTFY.
Edited a million times... I need to get back to studying.

[Matthies]

More doom and gloom

ABA Journal says 40% of Firms Cut Starting Associate Pay, While 44% Consider 2010 Cut http://www.abajournal.com/weekly/articl ... r_2010_cut

[wolverine2009]

I think we have to keep in mind that current applicants graduate in 2013 when the situation might be different, hopefully for the better.

[CE2JD]

I think we have to keep in mind that current applicants graduate in 2013 when the situation might be different, hopefully for the better.

Nope. L-shaped depression FTL. We are Japan circa 1985.

[daesonesb]

I think we have to keep in mind that current applicants graduate in 2013 when the situation might be different, hopefully for the better.

Nope. L-shaped depression FTL. We are Japan circa 1985.

Sooo ... you are saying we are going to have a recovery next year, inflate another bubble, which will pop in 2014 and lead to a decade of stag-deflation and recession?

For your analogy to make sense, we would have been Japan Circa '85 back in like 2001 after the tech bubble popped and 9/11 hit. That was a mild downturn on par with Japan in the mid 80's. Following that, our equivalent of the 1986-1990 Japanese asset-price bubble would be the 2004-2008 housing bubble. The point we'd be at now, if this is a Japanese style depression (which I'd argue, because we are currently experiencing inflation and a positive or near positive second-derivative with respect to the rate of contraction) would be Japan circa 1991. The shit had hit the fan by that point, investors were committing seppuku, and recovery never fully happened. Not yet.

I really wouldn't lightly talk about L-Shaped depressions either. Having one in the US would mean global depression at a level greater than the 30's because things are much more connected today. The thirties set the stage in Italy and Germany for dictators to take control and we all know what happened then.

So yeah... L shaped depressions suck. Lets all cross our fingers and hope really hard that isn't what's happening. If it is, we aren't going to be worrying about the legal market anymore.

[CE2JD]

I think we have to keep in mind that current applicants graduate in 2013 when the situation might be different, hopefully for the better.

Nope. L-shaped depression FTL. We are Japan circa 1985.

Sooo ... you are saying we are going to have a recovery next year, inflate another bubble, which will pop in 2014 and lead to a decade of stag-deflation and recession?

ya, that's about right. i mean we are after all in the recovery right now which is based on nothing but raw speculation and false hope.

[daesonesb]

I see. In that case I'm not arguing the analogy. I misread what you were trying to say. It's hard to draw perfect analogies with these sorts of things, because the recession we've been having is so much worse than the one Japan had in the 80's. Personally, I'm withholding judgement until unemployment and GDP numbers get back to where they were in early '08. If that hasn't happened by 2013, I'll be worried too.

[legalese_retard]

Haven't seen this article posted on TLS yet:

"Going to law school? Proceed with caution"

http://www.law.com/jsp/nlj/PubArticleNL ... th_caution

I like this quote:

"Even if we communicated the realities in a statistically valid way to prospective students, some of them still won't process that information," he said, "Students will continue to think that they will perform above average and be the lucky ones to snag a top job. A lot of people choose to see what they want to see."

[GeesesAintTeethes]

Haven't seen this article posted on TLS yet:

"Going to law school? Proceed with caution"

http://www.law.com/jsp/nlj/PubArticleNL ... th_caution

I like this quote:

"Even if we communicated the realities in a statistically valid way to prospective students, some of them still won't process that information," he said, "Students will continue to think that they will perform above average and be the lucky ones to snag a top job. A lot of people choose to see what they want to see."

I don't share this view, but I'm a minority. LOL!