RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here! Forum

[Engender]

The downturn will probably rein in salaries at the high end. Top firms are already under pressure to lower the $160,000 starting salary; one industry-watcher says it could fall as low as $100,000. And fewer firms will feel the need to pay the top salary.

Lower pay should mean that associates will not need to work the grueling hours many have been forced to. And it will mean less pressure to go into private practice for law graduates who would rather do something else.

lower salary + a possibility of having a life outside of the office = nice.

+1

And maybe the practice of law will attract more individuals who are interested in the practice of law and not just a quick way to easy $$.

[18488]

lots of LRAP programs have near slavery conditions (e.g. you can't get married)

cite?

[jrock12]

GO GO LEMMINGS...will you ever get it? the legal "BUSINESS" is bleeding. I cannot believe it is still considered a "profession"

I agree completely. I'm glad I still have my job in the more stable banking sector to fall back on.

i'm thinking so, but i really hope this was sarcasm....

you all need to get over the 'doom and gloom' scenario....there have been worse times, and america got through it...we'll get over this one, and there will be another time like this sometime in the future...i just dont understand why people come on here and preach about how bad the job market it/how bad the legal profession is...i bet current MBA and prospective MBA students aren't going out and complaining how bad the financial world has been ding'd...and much worse than the legal market has at that

get over it, put your head down and work hard...you will get a job

[Mr. Guppy]

Reduced salaries will lead to reduced hours? Somehow I doubt that. Associates that bill 2000 hours are bringing in far more money to the firm than just what covers their salary. Those long hours are what puts money in the partners' pockets. Partners can continue to ask just as much of their associates if there are no higher paying jobs available.

I suppose the implication is that as the pay difference between Biglaw jobs and the rest of the legal market shrinks, it will be harder for those firms to attract the top candidates without easing up on the long hours.

[kflyer]

That makes sense. I still doubt salaries will go that low though. Some firms will inevitably keep the high salaries and everyone will gravitate back to that number as the economy improves. There may be a dip for a few years, but everyone still wants the top graduates and it's hard to attract those when you pay less than other firms.

[CaptainCubicle]

GO GO LEMMINGS...will you ever get it? the legal "BUSINESS" is bleeding. I cannot believe it is still considered a "profession"

I agree completely. I'm glad I still have my job in the more stable banking sector to fall back on.

i'm thinking so, but i really hope this was sarcasm....

It was. I actually do have a rather stable position, but I was aiming at the point others have made; it's not just the legal industry struggling.

[Mr. Guppy]

GO GO LEMMINGS...will you ever get it? the legal "BUSINESS" is bleeding. I cannot believe it is still considered a "profession"

Funny that you link to an editorial that's titled "With the Downturn, It’s Time to Rethink the Legal Profession"

It said rethink, not abandon.

[jrock12]

GO GO LEMMINGS...will you ever get it? the legal "BUSINESS" is bleeding. I cannot believe it is still considered a "profession"

I agree completely. I'm glad I still have my job in the more stable banking sector to fall back on.

i'm thinking so, but i really hope this was sarcasm....

It was. I actually do have a rather stable position, but I was aiming at the point others have made; it's not just the legal industry struggling.

ha ha....ok good, we're on the same page then...i'm in a similar situation, so just thought it was funny...and not to mention that another poster took it as serious

[mllerustad]

And maybe the practice of law will attract more individuals who are interested in the practice of law and not just a quick way to easy $$.

I (and many others who take the biglaw route, I think) am not concerned about the state of biglaw because I want to make a gazillion dollars. I'm concerned about the state of biglaw because I want to have the opportunity to pay off my loans and go into what I actually want to do. Legal-academic complex, indeed...

(No, unless I magically get into Harvard, LRAPs won't cover me.)

Though if scaling back salaries somewhat means I can have a life, depending on the firm/practice area maybe I'd actually stick with biglaw.

[heyyitskatie]

lots of LRAP programs have near slavery conditions (e.g. you can't get married)

cite?

At the Georgetown Financial Aid seminar during ASW, I asked the financial aid representative, and he said that things like owning a home or getting married will make you ineligible for LRAP. He also said that that was a norm in many institutional LRAP programs.

There will be a new federal "lrap" program of sorts (to cover the stafford loans only), which does not take assets into account, but rather lets you make smaller payments based on your income and then forgiving your debt all together after X amount of years of PI/gov/etc. work (I think 10) and 25 otherwise. The problem I see with this is that it if you don't remain in PI/gov work for the full ten years, you still have all that debt and it will be larger than had you just made the true minimum payments since interest would have been accruing on that larger amount of principal.

Anyway...this may not be a problem for most people...I just might an incredibly risk averse person (and gee...a future lawyer...what a shock).

[Bankhead]

i spoke with my coworker's brother in law today, who is a partner at a sizable firm in DC. He said it's ridiculous how many LS grads come into his place looking for a job expecting outrageous salaries.

_________________________________________

That's because their monthly student loan payments are outrageous because law schools tutions are outrageous. A good idea would be to scrap law schools altogether and go back to the apprentice system. Relegate the first year One L courses back to the undergrad level, and send these worthless law professors out on their asses.

This economy isn't going to recover. The Black Swan is upon us.

But if and when it does recover, you'll still have plenty of other reasons why your career is non-existant. Your two words in that WSJ article were pretty fitting. I think they were: "a waste".

[legalese_retard]

Here is another article for you guys to selectively ignore:

Latest Labor Statistics Reveal Extent of Legal Sector Job Losses
http://www.law.com/jsp/article.jsp?id=1202429643519

More than one-third of the legal services jobs created since the 2001 recession have vanished in the current downturn, an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows.

[...]

The 24,900 jobs lost in this recession contrasts with the 72,800 created between November 2001, when the previous economic downturn ended, and November 2007. That means 34.2 percent of the jobs law firms and other legal services providers created since the dot-com bust have disappeared thanks to the current financial crisis.

[Rsrcht]

Here is another article for you guys to selectively ignore:

Latest Labor Statistics Reveal Extent of Legal Sector Job Losses
http://www.law.com/jsp/article.jsp?id=1202429643519

More than one-third of the legal services jobs created since the 2001 recession have vanished in the current downturn, an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows.

[...]

The 24,900 jobs lost in this recession contrasts with the 72,800 created between November 2001, when the previous economic downturn ended, and November 2007. That means 34.2 percent of the jobs law firms and other legal services providers created since the dot-com bust have disappeared thanks to the current financial crisis.

Good point, perhaps for the next few years. But how many of the jobs actually held lawyers? Maybe most of those people were staff. Also note that it says 72,800 jobs were created when the previous economic downturn ended. How many jobs will be created when this current crisis ends?

[huckabees]

Here is another article for you guys to selectively ignore:

Latest Labor Statistics Reveal Extent of Legal Sector Job Losses
http://www.law.com/jsp/article.jsp?id=1202429643519

More than one-third of the legal services jobs created since the 2001 recession have vanished in the current downturn, an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows.

[...]

The 24,900 jobs lost in this recession contrasts with the 72,800 created between November 2001, when the previous economic downturn ended, and November 2007. That means 34.2 percent of the jobs law firms and other legal services providers created since the dot-com bust have disappeared thanks to the current financial crisis.

Good point, perhaps for the next few years. But how many of the jobs actually held lawyers? Maybe most of those people were staff. Also note that it says 72,800 jobs were created when the previous economic downturn ended. How many jobs will be created when this current crisis ends?

Good points.

Our firm also made some minor cuts, but really just in staff.

[texaslawyer]

Life is one big shit sandwich and from time to time we all have to take a bite !

[djshack]

Here is another article for you guys to selectively ignore:

Latest Labor Statistics Reveal Extent of Legal Sector Job Losses
http://www.law.com/jsp/article.jsp?id=1202429643519

More than one-third of the legal services jobs created since the 2001 recession have vanished in the current downturn, an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows.

[...]

The 24,900 jobs lost in this recession contrasts with the 72,800 created between November 2001, when the previous economic downturn ended, and November 2007. That means 34.2 percent of the jobs law firms and other legal services providers created since the dot-com bust have disappeared thanks to the current financial crisis.

Good point, perhaps for the next few years. But how many of the jobs actually held lawyers? Maybe most of those people were staff. Also note that it says 72,800 jobs were created when the previous economic downturn ended. How many jobs will be created when this current crisis ends?

And how do these numbers compare to the similar numbers in other big fields, such as banking, accounting, insurance, web startups, etc.? Also, my B.A. in English wasn't really working for me when the economy was good, anyway.

[Rsrcht]

Here is another article for you guys to selectively ignore:

Latest Labor Statistics Reveal Extent of Legal Sector Job Losses
http://www.law.com/jsp/article.jsp?id=1202429643519

More than one-third of the legal services jobs created since the 2001 recession have vanished in the current downturn, an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows.

[...]

The 24,900 jobs lost in this recession contrasts with the 72,800 created between November 2001, when the previous economic downturn ended, and November 2007. That means 34.2 percent of the jobs law firms and other legal services providers created since the dot-com bust have disappeared thanks to the current financial crisis.

This is 34.2% relative to the 72,800 number, but not relative to all legal jobs. I'm sure the percentage relative to all legal jobs is lower, but perhaps still somewhat worrying.

[mycousinvinny]

All of this does not matter because he is coming to set us free soon

[thesealocust]

edit: n/m

[jmat]

Sigh, I guess I just don't understand the motivation y'all have for continuing to do this. Does anyone think that anyone on TLS doesn't actually know the deal with the economy by now? It's sad and it's weird.

[thesealocust]

edit: n/m

[leron]

For the record, some of us will likely not be "stuck in" jobs paying $30-50K because some of us already make 2X that right now, and returning to our current jobs would be an option after graduation, though not a great one.

+1

sometimes as I read TLS I worry about you kids that have not yet worked. i work in big 4 accounting. we hire lots of lawyers - bottom of their class t2's, t3's, t4's... they definitely start above 50k, probably well above and more like 70k. we all have great benefits too. i don't have a law degree and i'm already making above this. this 30-50k is bullshit. you really think that after your ug and law school education you'll only be able to get a job that pays the same as a secretary would make? sure, you might pick that job, but you'll definitely have better options.

[thesouthside]

[zyxwvut7]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/02/opini ... u4.html?em

This article is ridiculous. Basically, it starts off by saying that the legal profession has been hit by the recession. Clearly this is the case. Then it just goes on to bash young associates who start out making the $160,000 salaries per year. "New associates often make more money than the judges they appear before" <--I'm sorry, I thought that you were SUPPOSED to make more money for taking out $200,000 in loans and slaving away at a top 10 law school instead of going to PCL. My bad, I must be one of those evil capitalists.

Later..."Lower pay should mean that associates will not need to work the grueling hours many have been forced to" <-- No one is forced to do a damn thing. They choose to work hard to get paid. And there's also no logical reason why declining salaries will result in less hours of work.

Just thought this article was junk all around, thoughts?

[20160810]

Good morning, good people of TLS!

Recently, the Law School Admissions Forum has become (in the humble opinions of many) a tad clogged with threads about the possible effect of the bad economy on current and future law students. Without a doubt, this is a serious recession, and its effects on those of us going to law school are well worth considering. After all, many of us are taking out close to $200,000 in loans to finance this whole adventure, and we need to know whether or not it's a good investment first.

In short: Discussing the economy and its ramifications on law students and the legal profession is a very valid thing to do in this forum, but it's not the primary purpose of this forum. That is why this thread has been created. Links to news articles, AboveTheLaw posts, etc. can all be posted and discussed here, so there is no need to create other threads about this topic! In fact, other "bad economy" threads will either be merged with this thread, locked, or deleted.

Thank you in advance, and may this thread turn into a productive and informative (if depressing) discussion. Have a splendid day!

Your friend,
SBL