Law School Predictor: The Thread" Forum

[sporkdevil]

I'm kind of pissed about this. As it turns out, a 165 lsat score admits me into like 3 schools in the first 60. But whatever. (my backup schools that I am applying to that I actually want to go to, that aren't just fee waivers, I am in the middle of the GPA set, and a few points above the LSAT 75th range, but still not an admit. They are in the mid 30's in the ranking BTW).

What about the addition of a URM applicant? If you are a URM, you are automatically in! (Sorry, too much time at lawschoolnumbers.com)

[Ken]

YCrevolution, thank you so much for posting this! You are awesome and this must have taken a lot of time to make. Nontheless, we really appreciate it. It takes out SOME of the anxiety I feel waiting for my first decision. Can I ask you what a positive and negative consider means? How do I know if mine is positive or negative?

As to your question: positive means that your admissions index score is above that of the (roughly) median applicant at a school. Negative means the same thing except "below" instead of "above". It's not in the original spreadsheet (it just says "Consider), and I plan on adding it in the next version.

[YCrevolution]

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[joonix]

So far this spreadsheet is 0-3. I was admitted to 3 schools that it said DENY or NEG. CONSIDER on, heh. I think it weighs GPA too much.

[YCrevolution]

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[DavidMB13]

Hey, this is a great program, you've really done an excellent job. I must back up what one person said previously, and that is the fact that this mechanism gives way too much weight to GPA. For example, St. John's: typed in 163 LSAT/3.03 GPA - comes back with neg. consider. If you take a look at lawschoolnumbers.com, you will see tons of applicant with 160 LSAT/3.0 GPA approx. with scholarships. The LSAT score simply counts a ton more. If you jack up the LSAT to 165, it'll come back with Pos. Consider for St. John's. The truth is, if you get a 165, you're pretty much auto admit at SJU as long as your GPA is above 2.9, IMO.

Don't get me wrong, you've done a real service and I really enjoy messing around with it. I just think the predictions may be a bit off because GPA is given too much weight. I saw a 164 LSAT/3.1 GPA applicant get a full scholarship to SJU on LSN. I also noticed that it comes back with neg. consider for Cardozo at 166/3.03. Again, take a look at LSN, you will see this is not the case - 166/3.2 - 25 grand/year - 166/3.18 - 20 grand/year - 165/3.24 - 20 grand/year. I'm not sure how you came up with your index numbers, but I've heard of a specific way of how law schools do it. Take the GPA - say a 3.5 - multiply it by 10 - you get 35. Add that number to your LSAT score, and that's your index number. If you get a 160/3.5 GPA, you have a 195 index number. Is this the same formula you used for the index number? The same goes for identifying the admit/deny index numbers for all law schools - 25 % GPA/LSAT and 75 % GPA/LSAT. If your index number is above their 75 %, you're auto admit. If it's below the 25 %, you're auto deny.

Let me know what you think.

[YCrevolution]

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[nyyankees]

haha i just found out that i would need a 186 to move from being an outright DENY to a NEG. CONSIDER

this is fun, thanks YCRev

[agentcom]

Deny
2 for 2

Neg Consider
1 for 3 (i.e. in at 2 schools that I "should" have been rejected from)

Pos Consider
5 for 5

Admit
2 for 2

I, too, notice that the negative consider doesn't seem quite right. HOWEVER, you are looking at a sample of TLS/LSN posters who probably spend more time/effort in getting into law school than the typical applicant. This would skew their results toward success. While this would not show up in the Admit and Pos Consider areas, it is most likely to demonstrate itself "on the bubble" of acceptance--i.e. when an applicant would be Neg Consider. Since there are some practical boundaries that even a strong PS won't take care of, we should expect this result to be less applicable to auto-deny applicants. Again, the data show this as even candidates who beat the Neg consider probability(like me) don't beat the Deny probability (like me).

In conclusion, I would seriously hesitate before you update this spreadsheet with "real life" numbers that you get from LSN. That is a self selected group that probably beats the average anyway.

Also, thanks! This is awesome and I wish I had it around when I was doing my applications.

[foodizgood]

very impressive, OP - regardless of how accurate it is, just a herculean effort for something recreational.

so far for me, i've only heard from northwestern and george washington, both of which it put me as positive consider, but i've been admitted to both.

i think this is because i'm from an engineering background w/ work experience.

[YCrevolution]

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[sf87]

wow that spreadsheet is awesome...thanks!!

[YCrevolution]

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[rundoxierun]

This spreadsheet is spectacular.. are you working on any way to incorporate URM data by chance or is there not enough public URM data to make that even plausible?

[YCrevolution]

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[Aeroplane]

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[englawyer]

Also, any other input you would care to provide would be great. After compiling TLS stats, I'm probably going to run some correlation stuff with LSN data.

Is it possible to download LSN data somehow?

[YCrevolution]

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[Aeroplane]

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[englawyer]

I wonder why they stopped the CSV thing..that would be so much better. Thanks!

[omg]

Hope this helps!


171/3.45 (degree), 3.52 (cumulative)

Admit - 5/6 (possibly YP for the one I was waitlisted at)

Pos. Con. - 2/3 (one rejection)

Neg. Con. - 0/2 (although both waitlists)

Deny - 1/1

[Other25BeforeYou]

ADMIT: 2/2
POSITIVE CONSIDER:6/6
NEGATIVE CONSIDER: 2/3 (two WLs, once acceptance)
DENY:0/0

[YCrevolution]

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[Whatisthis]

First off, I want to thank you for developing this tool. I am excited to try out your latest version, though; when I tried to download your file I got a message saying it contained an error.

Am I doing something wrong?

[YCrevolution]

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