How Different is this Cycle Going to Be Forum

[Nova]

You know I love you anyway, but your posts are SO much better in Aubrey's voice

cc!!

[lawschool22]

http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/2014-l ... rsus-2013/

Someone (I wish I could remember who as they deserve credit) took the raw numbers from https://twitter.com/SpiveyConsult and calculated that the increase in the number of 175+ scores is ~37 people. They also figured out that the total number of 170+ scores decreased (as of that date). Thanks to Spivey Consulting for providing the data!

I think it was me who calculated this, but can't remember lol . I'll try to find my post...

[lawschool22]

Applications are down, but lsat scores are up...

Scores went up but percentiles went down?

Percentiles are based on a 5 year average

I think it's a 3 year average, but 5 vs 3 is probably irrelevant to this conversation

[lawschool22]

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ministered

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ear-volume

Not going to be as big an applicant drop as last year. But I don't agree with the argument that another ~13% drop in applicants won't affect admissions numbers, maybe not as much at T10, but certainly everywhere down from there. Top schools are insulated, but T3's and T4's aren't. Even with the uptick in scores.... I think it's like trying to bail out a sinking boat with a couple of buckets, not going to be enough. That said we will have new data on applicant #'s and December LSAT volume soon.

Possibly because I'm a bit of a bonehead I didn't know this data was readily available! Good stuff. I agree with you that the top schools will be fine, as they generally always are, but I think we can expect a reasonable decline in the top 30 or so schools like we saw this year. What I really wonder is if we'll see any more landslides like we saw at Notre Dame and Minnesota this past year... I feel like at this point they must have developed some strategy that doesn't result in such a reckless drop. Maybe, but maybe not.

If by top schools you mean the HYS, then I agree with you. Otherwise I think there will be pressure at all other T14 schools. We saw it this past cycle, with most schools' LSAT median dropping by a point, and I think we could see additional pressure at those schools this cycle, assuming class sizes remain constant.

[isuperserial]

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ministered

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ear-volume

Not going to be as big an applicant drop as last year. But I don't agree with the argument that another ~13% drop in applicants won't affect admissions numbers, maybe not as much at T10, but certainly everywhere down from there. Top schools are insulated, but T3's and T4's aren't. Even with the uptick in scores.... I think it's like trying to bail out a sinking boat with a couple of buckets, not going to be enough. That said we will have new data on applicant #'s and December LSAT volume soon.

Possibly because I'm a bit of a bonehead I didn't know this data was readily available! Good stuff. I agree with you that the top schools will be fine, as they generally always are, but I think we can expect a reasonable decline in the top 30 or so schools like we saw this year. What I really wonder is if we'll see any more landslides like we saw at Notre Dame and Minnesota this past year... I feel like at this point they must have developed some strategy that doesn't result in such a reckless drop. Maybe, but maybe not.

If by top schools you mean the HYS, then I agree with you. Otherwise I think there will be pressure at all other T14 schools. We saw it this past cycle, with most schools' LSAT median dropping by a point, and I think we could see additional pressure at those schools this cycle, assuming class sizes remain constant.

Yup. I think class sizes will remain generally constant. Students = money. If everyone drops medians a point or two, no school really gets hurt. But less money means real damage to the law school, from a business standpoint.

[03152016]

Applications are down, but lsat scores are up...

Scores went up but percentiles went down?

Applicants are getting better at the lsat

Its been happening slowly since the lsat's inception

You know I love you anyway, but your posts are SO much better in Aubrey's voice

tell me about it. getting lost in dem eyes...

also, sup cc.