ITT: New School Medians Revealed Forum

[minnbills]

If the # of applicants decreases again I wonder if they will continue to decrease class sizes or just bite the bullet on the medians? Or is it mostly less-qualified people who are no longer applying?

[Aberzombie1892]

Presumably, they would continue to decrease class sizes until the law school could literally not function due to a lack of tuition revenue (or the university, which takes money from the law school, tells it it can't take any fewer students).

[avemundi]

Btw, is it normal for a school's median to be the same as its 75% number? Gawwdd, Penn, why'd you have to jump a number

Relax. There are only so many 171s to go around. I'd be willing to bet that within 10 students below the median the number is down to 170, and then it falls off quickly from there (to 166 at the 25th). If they are really at 166/171/171 and apps continue to decline, they could very easily end up back at 170 next year.

But i don't have a GPA to help me (Intl 'Superior' GPA), so the 170 is all I have for ED...doesn't that spell DOOM? lol

[KevinP]

If the # of applicants decreases again I wonder if they will continue to decrease class sizes or just bite the bullet on the medians? Or is it mostly less-qualified people who are no longer applying?

It will really depend on how big the drop is in the number of applicants. I honestly think some law schools won't be willing to make such drastic cuts in enrollment again this year so I would guess we'll see a combination of dropping enrollment and dropping medians. The lower ranked schools will most likely suffer more from the applicant drop than the higher ranked schools. My worry is schools will raise tuition on current students to partially make up for the lost revenue due to dropping enrollment.

Also, some schools will have an enrollment increase next year. E.g. Dean Pless, the dean of Illinois, explicitly stated:

The Class of 2104 is 184, down from 228. Next year the class will be in the 220-230 range.

[Moomoo2u]

tuition increase is also gonna be based on profit margins. They may have to lower these to entice people into law school (I can't see how people already reticent to go into 210k of debt are going to be more willing to enter into LS given a tanking economy and decreased LS desire/job prospects).

All in all though this seems like good news though, no?

[bk1]

Also, some schools will have an enrollment increase next year. E.g. Dean Pless, the dean of Illinois, explicitly stated:

The Class of 2104 is 184, down from 228. Next year the class will be in the 220-230 range.

This isn't relevant. Pless stated that the reason the class of 2014 was abnormally small was because the graduating class of 2011 was abnormally small and Illinois wanted to keep the number of people consistent so they wanted the number of people graduating and matriculating this year to be roughly the same.

[Robespierre]

If the # of applicants decreases again I wonder if they will continue to decrease class sizes or just bite the bullet on the medians? Or is it mostly less-qualified people who are no longer applying?

These are the million dollar questions. My guesses at the answers:

1. The number of applicants for the upcoming cycle almost HAS to decrease. June LSATs administered were way down from the previous year and there has been lots of scary publicity about bad employment prospects in the profession. The handwriting is on the wall for another app decrease; the question is whether it will be dramatic or just incremental. I'm guessing incremental but I hope I'm wrong.

2. No doubt a lot of the disappearing applicants will be ones with marginal numbers. But a chunk will be high scorers too, so the smaller pool will be a concern for T14s as well as lower-ranked schools. Witness the falling GPA median at Duke.

3. Schools will try to maintain medians by shrinking the class, but some already have done this, or can't. They will also try to maintain medians by shrinking or eliminating evening programs, but only a small minority has them. They will also try to maintain medians by spreading around more scholarship money, but some already have done this, or can't. They will also try even harder to sign up their admitted students with strong numbers, but there's only so much wooing they can do. Ultimately, some schools will have to let the medians fall.

4. There will have to be some tuition hikes to make up for the loss of revenue from smaller classes and more scholarships, but schools will be reluctant to hike more than about 5% since there's already a lot of sentiment that tuition is too high.

[KevinP]

Also, some schools will have an enrollment increase next year. E.g. Dean Pless, the dean of Illinois, explicitly stated:

The Class of 2104 is 184, down from 228. Next year the class will be in the 220-230 range.

This isn't relevant. Pless stated that the reason the class of 2014 was abnormally small was because the graduating class of 2011 was abnormally small and Illinois wanted to keep the number of people consistent so they wanted the number of people graduating and matriculating this year to be roughly the same.

I agree that the drop in class size for Illinois isn't relevant since the drop isn't attributed to a drop in applicants. However, assuming Pless is correct, the increase in enrollment for next year is relevant since it supports the contention that at least some schools set the class size in advance without regard to a drop in the number in applicants. As a result, the increase in class size to regular levels for Illinois, and potentially any other schools which set the class size in advance, will most likely translate into falling medians.

[Bildungsroman]

Some more new info for Yale: while their median stayed at 173 as previously mentioned, their 25th percentile dropped to 170 (from 171).

http://www.law.yale.edu/admissions/profile.htm

[birdlaw117]

If the # of applicants decreases again I wonder if they will continue to decrease class sizes or just bite the bullet on the medians? Or is it mostly less-qualified people who are no longer applying?

These are the million dollar questions. My guesses at the answers:

1. The number of applicants for the upcoming cycle almost HAS to decrease. June LSATs administered were way down from the previous year and there has been lots of scary publicity about bad employment prospects in the profession. The handwriting is on the wall for another app decrease; the question is whether it will be dramatic or just incremental. I'm guessing incremental but I hope I'm wrong.

I wouldn't say the number of applicants HAS to decrease. You don't have to apply to school the same year you take the LSAT. This means there is probably still some surplus from previous test administrations where the numbers were really high. I don't know what that surplus amount is, but I wouldn't ignore it.

[Perdevise]

Some more new info for Yale: while their median stayed at 173 as previously mentioned, their 25th percentile dropped to 170 (from 171).

http://www.law.yale.edu/admissions/profile.htm

Yay for falling in the inter quartile range.

[Robespierre]

If the # of applicants decreases again I wonder if they will continue to decrease class sizes or just bite the bullet on the medians? Or is it mostly less-qualified people who are no longer applying?

These are the million dollar questions. My guesses at the answers:

1. The number of applicants for the upcoming cycle almost HAS to decrease. June LSATs administered were way down from the previous year and there has been lots of scary publicity about bad employment prospects in the profession. The handwriting is on the wall for another app decrease; the question is whether it will be dramatic or just incremental. I'm guessing incremental but I hope I'm wrong.

I wouldn't say the number of applicants HAS to decrease. You don't have to apply to school the same year you take the LSAT. This means there is probably still some surplus from previous test administrations where the numbers were really high. I don't know what that surplus amount is, but I wouldn't ignore it.

True, there are some people who took the LSAT pre-2011 who will apply this year. But there are also people who took the LSAT in 2011 who will ultimately decide not to apply this year. I think the latter will balance out the former, or even exceed them, due to the spate of anti-law school stuff in the media.

[1988AndX]

Some more new info for Yale: while their median stayed at 173 as previously mentioned, their 25th percentile dropped to 170 (from 171).

http://www.law.yale.edu/admissions/profile.htm

Yay for falling in the inter quartile range.

Except that the 75th percentile increased to 177.

[birdlaw117]

If the # of applicants decreases again I wonder if they will continue to decrease class sizes or just bite the bullet on the medians? Or is it mostly less-qualified people who are no longer applying?

These are the million dollar questions. My guesses at the answers:

1. The number of applicants for the upcoming cycle almost HAS to decrease. June LSATs administered were way down from the previous year and there has been lots of scary publicity about bad employment prospects in the profession. The handwriting is on the wall for another app decrease; the question is whether it will be dramatic or just incremental. I'm guessing incremental but I hope I'm wrong.

I wouldn't say the number of applicants HAS to decrease. You don't have to apply to school the same year you take the LSAT. This means there is probably still some surplus from previous test administrations where the numbers were really high. I don't know what that surplus amount is, but I wouldn't ignore it.

True, there are some people who took the LSAT pre-2011 who will apply this year. But there are also people who took the LSAT in 2011 who will ultimately decide not to apply this year. I think the latter will balance out the former, or even exceed them, due to the spate of anti-law school stuff in the media.

I agree. Just thought it was worth mentioning.

[admisionquestion]

Retracted.

[freestallion]

Is there somewhere with all this compiled? does someone (not me) want to do this if it isn't?

Er... it's on the first page.

[rayiner]

Eeekk just called Penn and: LSAT 25% - 166 LSAT 75% - 171
GPA 25% - 3.5something 75% - 3.90

I think the person said the medians were the same as the 75% numbers.......not sure how that works but wtfffffffffffff does this mean my 170 (intl, so no gpa) means I'm screwed for ED?

*goes into supreme panic mode*

*skeptical panda*

Seems the same as their numbers from last year, so I doubt the medians moved.

[avemundi]

Eeekk just called Penn and: LSAT 25% - 166 LSAT 75% - 171
GPA 25% - 3.5something 75% - 3.90

I think the person said the medians were the same as the 75% numbers.......not sure how that works but wtfffffffffffff does this mean my 170 (intl, so no gpa) means I'm screwed for ED?

*goes into supreme panic mode*

*skeptical panda*

Seems the same as their numbers from last year, so I doubt the medians moved.

Well, I hope you're right and I'm wrong....or rather, that the person I talked to over the phone was wrong.

[KevinP]

Berkeley just posted medians.
Berkeley: 167 (no change), 3.79 (no change)
25th percentile LSAT went up from 162 to 164 while 25th percentile GPA dropped from 3.64 to 3.62. Also, the entering class size dropped from 286 to 254 which is approximately an 11% decrease.

http://www.law.berkeley.edu/37.htm

[minnbills]

I'm stunned Berkeley's median is only 167.

EDIT: LSN would have you think low 170s, weird

[Bildungsroman]

Berkeley just posted medians.
Berkeley: 167 (no change), 3.79 (no change)
25th percentile LSAT went up from 162 to 164 while 25th percentile GPA dropped from 3.64 to 3.62. Also, the entering class size dropped from 286 to 254 which is approximately an 11% decrease.

http://www.law.berkeley.edu/37.htm

TTT in decline confirmed.

[Moomoo2u]

I'm stunned Berkeley's median is only 167.

+1 wth? 25% is insanely low too.

[KevinP]

@UP: Berkeley has always been critical of the LSAT and has been pushing for research into developing an alternative method.

Directly from Berkeley's research:
"To base admission to law school so heavily on LSAT scores is to choose
academic skills (and only a subset of those) as the prime determinant of who gets into
law and law-related careers that demand many competencies in addition to test taking,
reading and reasoning skills. Moreover, it allocates the scarce resource of legal
education, along with its ensuing influence and privilege, on the narrow basis of skills
that are heavily linked to wealth and class."
Source: http://www.law.berkeley.edu/files/LSACR ... nal-12.pdf

Kind of ironic they essentially link wealth and class to the LSAT but yet place such heavy emphasis on the GPA which is probably just as strongly correlated with wealth and class.

Also, Penn released some data. They released the 25th/75th percentiles but it doesn't look like they posted medians.
http://www.law.upenn.edu/prospective/jd ... stics.html

[JamMasterJ]

@UP: Berkeley has always been critical of the LSAT and has been pushing for research into developing an alternative method.

Directly from Berkeley's research:
"To base admission to law school so heavily on LSAT scores is to choose
academic skills (and only a subset of those) as the prime determinant of who gets into
law and law-related careers that demand many competencies in addition to test taking,
reading and reasoning skills. Moreover, it allocates the scarce resource of legal
education, along with its ensuing influence and privilege, on the narrow basis of skills
that are heavily linked to wealth and class."
Source: http://www.law.berkeley.edu/files/LSACR ... nal-12.pdf

Kind of ironic they essentially link wealth and class to the LSAT but yet place such heavy emphasis on the GPA which is probably just as strongly correlated with wealth and class.

Also, Penn released some data. They released the 25th/75th percentiles but it doesn't look like they posted medians.
http://www.law.upenn.edu/prospective/jd ... stics.html

LSAC's site basically says that certain groups perform less well on the LSAT as a whole in part because they study less for it, on average.

[Tanicius]

Berkeley just posted medians.
Berkeley: 167 (no change), 3.79 (no change)
25th percentile LSAT went up from 162 to 164 while 25th percentile GPA dropped from 3.64 to 3.62. Also, the entering class size dropped from 286 to 254 which is approximately an 11% decrease.

http://www.law.berkeley.edu/37.htm

TTT in decline confirmed.

How do you figure? Do you have reason to believe Berkeley is unable to accept more people with higher numbers - that it doesn't instead intentionally decide to factor things beyond numbers more heavily than peer schools and reject or waitlist more at its 75th LSAT than other schools?

Basically, why do you think a smaller class size than in years past and a .02 drop in the 25th GPA percentile is indicative of "decline"? The -.02 25th seems negligible to me, and as an entering student I'm hardly disappointed with a drop in the class size from 270 to 250.