2016 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest (Winners Announced) Forum

[03152016]

that's first prize material at least

[North]

Are you serious because I will list it

[03152016]

no

but i'll let the winner pick a dozen emojis to include in the next version of tls+

[North]

no

but i'll let the winner pick a dozen emojis to include in the next version of tls+

That would be a legit prize if more lounge lizards played

That's a high lounge impact prize that could end up going to some no-tar 103-lsat prep thread posts rando

I seriously doubt this contest would be well received in the lounge

[IsThisForReal]

a deduction will occur based on the difference in value between what they put in its place and where what they put in its place was actually ranked.

I think that's fine. I was just curious.

[ms9]

It seems like most people entering the contest are people who already applied or are in law school so idk what they're gonna do with all the pre law stuff

Depends on what level you win at, but:

Grand Prize: Spivey's people do everything up to legal employment consilting, so unless you're a 2L/3L with a job locked down it could still be really useful.

First Prize:

• Everyone gets:
  Spivey's discount. Usefulness argument from above applies, but this one is transferable to another TLSer so you can give it to someone who will use it if you won't.

• Winners have the choice of receiving one of the following:
  • Not transferrable
    My hot sauce appeals to everyone who doesn't hate america/happiness. Pistachios are the GOAT nut, no debate, plus they're from me. Who wouldn't want a UVA law shirt that I buy for you.
    
    Transferable:
    The Blueprint LSAT book. So, if you won't use it, gift it to a TLSer who will.

Second Prize:

• Everyone gets:
  • Not transferable:
    lil stachios from me,
    
    Transferable:
    Spivey discount, LSAT Hacks explanations. So give them to someone who will use them if you won't

So you can dodge the 0L specific stuff pretty easily if you want. For the stuff you can't, it's in most cases an opportunity to do a younger TLSer a solid.

e: see, e.g.,

Whoever wins LSAT stuff, feel free to send it my way.

If you win the Grand Prize and you have zero desire to ever come to Boulder, CO or to get some free admissions or career help, I can certainly be flexible. In other words, if your little brother/sister is about to apply to law school, best friend, favorite pet, etc we can talk about helping them. But yea, when in doubt just make sure you win the hot sauce. That is what I am gunning for.

[15 styx]

The ranking prediction became a little more challenging today. According to a poll in ATL, the top law schools in ref to law school hiring (from the legal intelligence) the top three law schools are Columbia-Penn-Chicago. I could go with that except Harvard is #5, Stanford #10 and Yale #14. Hard to make that prediction for a USNWR poll unless they are considering a MAJOR shakeup. Which, to me, is highly unlikely. Nevertheless, it does create pause.

[Dr. Nefario]

01. Yale University
02. Harvard University
02. Stanford University
04. Columbia University
04. University of Chicago
06. New York University
07. University Of Pennsylvania
07. University Of Virginia
09. Duke University
10. University Of California - Berkeley
10. University Of Michigan
12. Northwestern University
13. Cornell University
14. Georgetown University
14. University Of Texas At Austin
16. University Of California - Los Angeles
16. Emory University
18. Vanderbilt University
18. Washington University
20. George Washington University
20. University Of Southern California
22. University Of Minnesota
23. University Of Washington
24. William And Mary Law School
24. University Of Alabama

[buckiguy_sucks]

.

[Moneytrees]

The ranking prediction became a little more challenging today. According to a poll in ATL, the top law schools in ref to law school hiring (from the legal intelligence) the top three law schools are Columbia-Penn-Chicago. I could go with that except Harvard is #5, Stanford #10 and Yale #14. Hard to make that prediction for a USNWR poll unless they are considering a MAJOR shakeup. Which, to me, is highly unlikely. Nevertheless, it does create pause.

It does not create pause.

[ChemEng1642]

The ranking prediction became a little more challenging today. According to a poll in ATL, the top law schools in ref to law school hiring (from the legal intelligence) the top three law schools are Columbia-Penn-Chicago. I could go with that except Harvard is #5, Stanford #10 and Yale #14. Hard to make that prediction for a USNWR poll unless they are considering a MAJOR shakeup. Which, to me, is highly unlikely. Nevertheless, it does create pause.

I thought this was for Big Law jobs specifically - YHS rankings are probably due to self-selection

[keosu11]

01. Yale University
02. Harvard University
03. Stanford University
04. Columbia University
04. University of Chicago
06. New York University
07. University Of Pennsylvania
08. University Of California - Berkeley
08. University Of Virginia
10. Duke University
11. University Of Michigan
11. Northwestern University
13. Cornell University
14. Georgetown University
15. University Of Texas At Austin
16. Vanderbilt University
17. University Of California - Los Angeles
18. Washington University
18. University Of Southern California
20. Emory University
20. George Washington University
20. University Of Minnesota
23. University Of Alabama
24. University Of Washington
25. University Of Notre Dame

[curlietop86]

.

[Jaqen]

01. Yale University
02. Stanford University
03. Harvard University
04. Columbia University
04. University of Chicago
06. New York University
07. University Of Virginia
07. University Of Pennsylvania
09. University Of California - Berkeley
09. Duke University
11. Northwestern University
11. University Of Michigan
13. Cornell University
14. Georgetown University
15. University Of Texas At Austin
15. University Of California - Los Angeles
17. Vanderbilt University
18. Washington University
18. Emory University
20. George Washington University
20. University Of Southern California
22. University Of Minnesota
23. University Of Notre Dame
24. University Of Alabama
25. Boston University

[Ex Cearulo]

How will the scoring work for schools that USNWR puts in the Top 25, but are left off of ours?

So this was a good question. It seems like a big oversight, and I spent a while this morning just re-reading through the whole 2014 thread where we worked out the original rules and my PM's with Robb last year trying to figure out how it was missed.

In short, it was and it wasn't.

No, we don't have an explicitly stated rule governing this situation and we haven't in any of the past iterations of the contest. Admittedly, it was because we kind of forgot to fully grapple with it in the 2014 thread. But i's worked out fine for a reason that Robb put more succinctly than I could when we were PMing about it this morning:

Yea, so when I was making grade.php, I was going to PM you about this, but ultimately concluded that you intentionally left out a rule for it it, because I don't think it matters much. Everyone needs to list 25 schools in their top 25. If someone leaves off a school that is in the top 25, that means they put another school in its place, and so a deduction will occur based on the difference in value between what they put in its place and where what they put in its place was actually ranked.

Of course, that does create some sort of asymmetry, because most errors are double counted (i.e., if you switch the #1 and #2 school, you don't lose two points, but two points for each = 4 points). But there is also more of a symmetry. T14 schools count for 2 points, and are very likely to count twice for two points because chances are they're not going to be left out of the T25. T14-T20ish count for 1 point, but chances are they're going to be double counted in the way I described. As you get closer to the edge, there is less of a chance of double counting. So it kind of makes sense--the lower the rank of the school, the less misplacing it tends to affect your score.

But as long as everyone else is held to the same rule, I don't think it really matters.

One solution we've considered is to assume that the entrant listed the missing school at #26 and deduct accordingly. Can anyone see an argument for a rule like this? Or is this insignificant so long as it's (not) applied to everyone?

Let's do some CONSTITUTION BUILDING ITT

I also wondered about this and kind of assumed the solution you mentioned, North, was what would happen (place the school you left off your list at 26 no matter what and calculate the difference from there). Mostly because it's the easiest to uniformly apply to everyone.

Separate question: Have the dates for the Spivey retreat been listed anywhere? Still TBD? Didn't see it anywhere in the thread. Not that I'm so certain I'll win, but those of us with wives and kids and jerbs might need to do a little advance planning.

[bailey8078]

01. Yale University
02. Stanford University
03. Harvard University
04. Columbia University
04. University of Chicago
06. New York University
06. University Of Pennsylvania
08. University Of California - Berkeley
09. University Of Virginia
09. University Of Michigan
11. Duke University
12. Northwestern University
13. Cornell University
14. Georgetown University
14. University Of Texas At Austin
16. Vanderbilt University
17. University Of California - Los Angeles
17. Washington University
19. George Washington University
20. Emory University
21. University Of Southern California
22. University Of Minnesota
23. University Of Alabama
24. William And Mary Law School
24. University Of Washington

[ms9]

Separate question: Have the dates for the Spivey retreat been listed anywhere? Still TBD? Didn't see it anywhere in the thread. Not that I'm so certain I'll win, but those of us with wives and kids and jerbs might need to do a little advance planning.

May 25th/26th. Hope this helps!

[Dog]

01. Yale University
02. Harvard University
03. Stanford University
04. Columbia University
05. University of Chicago
06. New York University
07. University Of Pennsylvania
08. University Of Virginia
09. University Of California - Berkeley
10. Duke University
11. University Of Michigan
12. Northwestern University
13. Cornell University
14. Georgetown University
15. University Of Texas At Austin
16. University Of California - Los Angeles
17. Vanderbilt University
18. Washington University
19. University Of Southern California
20. George Washington University
21. Emory University
22. University Of Minnesota
23. University Of Washington
24. University Of Notre Dame
25. University Of Alabama

[Yea All Right]

01. Yale University
02. Harvard University
03. Stanford University
04. Columbia University
04. University of Chicago
06. New York University
07. University Of Pennsylvania
08. University Of Virginia
09. University Of California - Berkeley
10. Duke University
10. University Of Michigan
12. Northwestern University
13. Cornell University
14. Georgetown University
15. University Of Texas At Austin
15. Vanderbilt University
17. University Of California - Los Angeles
18. University Of Southern California
19. Washington University
20. George Washington University
20. Emory University
22. University Of Minnesota
23. University Of Alabama
24. University Of Notre Dame
24. William And Mary Law School

[Cobretti]

01. Yale University
02. Stanford University
02. Harvard University
04. University of Chicago
04. Columbia University
06. New York University
07. University Of Pennsylvania
08. University Of Virginia
08. University Of California - Berkeley
10. Duke University
10. Northwestern University
10. Cornell University
13. University Of Michigan
14. Georgetown University
15. University Of Texas At Austin
15. University Of California - Los Angeles
17. Vanderbilt University
17. Washington University
19. Emory University
20. George Washington University
21. University Of Minnesota
22. University Of Southern California
22. University Of Alabama
24. University Of Washington
25. William And Mary Law School

[Teoeo]

01. Yale University
02. Harvard University
03. Stanford University
04. Columbia University
05. University of Chicago
06. New York University
07. University Of Pennsylvania
08. University Of California - Berkeley
09. University Of Virginia
10. University Of Michigan
11. Duke University
12. Northwestern University
13. Cornell University
14. Georgetown University
15. University Of California - Los Angeles
16. University Of Texas At Austin
17. Vanderbilt University
18. University Of Southern California
19. George Washington University
20. Emory University
21. University Of Washington
22. University Of Notre Dame
23. Boston University
24. University Of Minnesota
25. Indiana University - Bloomington

[TFALAWL]

Why is UVA not getting any love? Usually at least one person predicts a #6

[03152016]

bc penn is better

[Robb]

Why is UVA not getting any love? Usually at least one person predicts a #6

Historically a huge portion of TLSers used to go to UVA. My year there was a huge UVA brigade on TLS. I think this is partially because of UVA's greater acceptance rate for splitters, and a large portion of TLS users have high LSAT scores, and the ones who have high LSAT scores with low GPA's used to have only one T14 option, and that was UVA.

Penn's placement superiority, combined with its somewhat reduced YP, combined with its splitter-friendliness, combined with Chicago's growing splitter friendliness, has eroded UVA's hold somewhat.

So, in short, I think there are just less UVA folks on TLS than there used to be.

My armchair observations, anyway.

[qlinault]

01. Yale University
02.Stanford University
02. Harvard University
04. Columbia University
05. University of Chicago
06. New York University
07. University Of Pennsylvania
08. University Of Virginia
09. University Of California - Berkeley
10. Duke University
11. University Of Michigan
11. Northwestern University
13. Cornell University
14. Georgetown University
15. University Of Texas At Austin
16. Vanderbilt University
16. University Of California - Los Angeles
18. Washington University
19. Emory University
20. George Washington University
20. University Of Southern California
22. University Of Minnesota
23. University Of Washington
24. University Of Alabama
24. University Of Notre Dame

welp i fucked this up the whole tie thing confused me yolo