C/O 2016 median lsat/gpa/class size Forum

[jbagelboy]

Does anyone know the number of LSAT test takers this year and if it conforms to the previous downward trends? I feel like this would be useful information in determining whether or not we can expect similar declines in medians next year just like this year.

I don't think the yearly total has been published yet, but the October decline has been reported. I think it was something like 11% down from last October in total, with a 13% drop in first-time takers.

And June was down 5%. I'm not sure this will be significant enough to drop T14 medians across the board again, but can't see any schools raising medians.

Are we 100% percent sure that a school like HLS wont be effected by this drop in medians by other schools below them. I say this because a students with a 170 might be looking at a higher chance of getting a full ride at a lower ranked school and as such might be les inclined to choose HLS. I think this will have an effect on the major schools as well.

Historically speaking, this isnt how it works. In fact, I think more people are choosing HYS over money at other schools than in years passed because of the increased job security. If Harvards medians fall, it wont be because 170's are turning down their offers of admission - it will be because there arent enough 173+ left to fill the top half of their giant class.

ETA: and by 173+, I mean 173+'s whose GPAs arent ruinous to the GPA median/floor. We've already seen HLS lowering this floor the past 2 yrs, probably in part since they cant hold that median with ONLY 3.8+/173+ students.

[jingosaur]

Historically speaking, this isnt how it works. In fact, I think more people are choosing HYS over money at other schools than in years passed because of the increased job security. If Harvards medians fall, it wont be because 170's are turning down their offers of admission - it will be because there arent enough 173+ left to fill the top half of their giant class.

ETA: and by 173+, I mean 173+'s whose GPAs arent ruinous to the GPA median/floor. We've already seen HLS lowering this floor the past 2 yrs, probably in part since they cant hold that median with ONLY 3.8+/173+ students.

With the drop in LSAT takers this year, they're going to have a rough time keeping the 173 median and 175 75th. I'm sure they'll find a way to do it, but that's kind of wishful thinking for me.

[ScottRiqui]

Does anyone know the number of LSAT test takers this year and if it conforms to the previous downward trends? I feel like this would be useful information in determining whether or not we can expect similar declines in medians next year just like this year.

I don't think the yearly total has been published yet, but the October decline has been reported. I think it was something like 11% down from last October in total, with a 13% drop in first-time takers.

And June was down 5%. I'm not sure this will be significant enough to drop T14 medians across the board again, but can't see any schools raising medians.

Are we 100% percent sure that a school like HLS wont be effected by this drop in medians by other schools below them. I say this because a students with a 170 might be looking at a higher chance of getting a full ride at a lower ranked school and as such might be les inclined to choose HLS. I think this will have an effect on the major schools as well.

It didn't happen this past cycle, and I suspect it won't happen next cycle either. None of YSH lost ground significantly in their LSAT or GPA numbers or class sizes, and Stanford even raised their LSAT median by a point. I think that YSH get so many high-quality applicants who are willing to pay sticker if need be that they can pretty much set their medians anywhere they'd like just by varying how selective they are regarding soft factors.

[cotiger]

Are we 100% percent sure that a school like HLS wont be effected by this drop in medians by other schools below them. I say this because a students with a 170 might be looking at a higher chance of getting a full ride at a lower ranked school and as such might be les inclined to choose HLS. I think this will have an effect on the major schools as well.

It didn't happen this past cycle, and I suspect it won't happen next cycle either. None of YSH lost ground significantly in their LSAT or GPA numbers or class sizes, and Stanford even raised their LSAT median by a point. I think that YSH get so many high-quality applicants who are willing to pay sticker if need be that they can pretty much set their medians anywhere they'd like just by varying how selective they are regarding soft factors.

Y/S can pretty much choose their medians. Harvard, on the other hand, still has to sweat about it due to their giant class size. Check out these differences:



Harvard takes pretty much everyone at or above their median LSAT all the way down to their 25th percentile GPA. Yeah, they still have some leeway wrt softs, but not a ton.

[ScottRiqui]

Harvard takes pretty much everyone at or above their median LSAT all the way down to their 25th percentile GPA. Yeah, they still have some leeway wrt softs, but not a ton.

Good point, and that's an interesting graph that I hadn't seen before. But considering that Harvard was able to maintain exactly the same GPA/LSAT 25/50/75 numbers last cycle while simultaneously increasing class size (although very slightly), I think they're still at least a cycle or two away from being affected in any serious way.

[Tiago Splitter]

Harvard takes pretty much everyone at or above their median LSAT all the way down to their 25th percentile GPA. Yeah, they still have some leeway wrt softs, but not a ton.

On the other hand those graphs show they still have a lot of room to drop on the GPA side. You'll know things have really gone south when Harvard starts being splitter friendly.

[cotiger]

Harvard takes pretty much everyone at or above their median LSAT all the way down to their 25th percentile GPA. Yeah, they still have some leeway wrt softs, but not a ton.

On the other hand those graphs show they still have a lot of room to drop on the GPA side. You'll know things have really gone south when Harvard starts being splitter friendly.

True statement. But to the extent that these schools want to maintain their numerical standards, Harvard is in a much tougher bind.

And really, Harvard already is relatively splitter friendy, at least compared to Y/S. They dip further down in GPA and let in a higher percentage of those lower GPA/high LSAT applicants.

[isuperserial]

Do you think we can expect a reasonable decline for the T25 schools like WUSTL and Notre Dame like we did this year? I feel like those guys were hit the hardest. I agree with the general consensus that there will be little motion in HYS.

[chuckbass]

Do you think we can expect a reasonable decline for the T25 schools like WUSTL and Notre Dame like we did this year? I feel like those guys were hit the hardest. I agree with the general consensus that there will be little motion in HYS.

I don't think Notre Dame would experience as big of a drop as it already has.

[sinfiery]

I expect H to drop to 172 or drop its class size and/or its GPA floor even more. (3.5/6 so far?)

I think it's far more likely for schools that haven't dropped to drop this cycle than for schools that just dropped to drop again. IE: UVA is keeping its 169 whereas if Penn is at 170, it is much more likely to drop to 169 than UVA to 168.


Though this logic implies NYU will hold its 171 this year and that is definitely questionable.

[cotiger]

Though this logic implies NYU will hold its 171 this year and that is definitely questionable.

Wait, what? Do you know something we don't know? NYU's C/O 2016 is unknown, at least so far as the spreadsheet is concerned.

Or are you saying that the logic implies it will hold 171 for C/O 2016?

[Lavitz]

Though this logic implies NYU will hold its 171 this year and that is definitely questionable.

Wait, what? Do you know something we don't know? NYU's C/O 2016 is unknown, at least so far as the spreadsheet is concerned.

Or are you saying that the logic implies it will hold 171 for C/O 2016?

Yeah, he means because NYU fell from 172 for c/o 2015, if you apply his logic it means NYU should have held 171 for c/o 2016, but it doesn't look like it did. So it likely dropped two years in a row.

[cotiger]

Though this logic implies NYU will hold its 171 this year and that is definitely questionable.

Wait, what? Do you know something we don't know? NYU's C/O 2016 is unknown, at least so far as the spreadsheet is concerned.

Or are you saying that the logic implies it will hold 171 for C/O 2016?

Yeah, he means because NYU fell from 172 for c/o 2015, if you apply his logic it means NYU should have held 171 for c/o 2016, but it doesn't look like it did. So it likely dropped two years in a row.

Gotcha. I read "this year" as meaning "this cycle," so was thinking he meant that because NYU's C/O 2016 dropped to 171, then C/O 2017 should hold it.

[bouleversement]

I think they're still at least a cycle or two away from being affected in any serious way.

By "serious way" I presume you mean losing the 173. If so, I agree. The numbers we're seeing don't support an alternative conclusion.

[bouleversement]

On the other hand those graphs show they still have a lot of room to drop on the GPA side. You'll know things have really gone south when Harvard starts being splitter friendly.

When do you see this occurring?

[bouleversement]

Is it faulty to assume Stanford's 75th also increased a point?

[Vincent]

Is it faulty to assume Stanford's 75th also increased a point?

Frequentist statistics would say you cannot assume/conclude that.

Bayesian statistics could make that assumption defensible.

[Tiago Splitter]

On the other hand those graphs show they still have a lot of room to drop on the GPA side. You'll know things have really gone south when Harvard starts being splitter friendly.

When do you see this occurring?

I don't. I think they'll just let it drop to 172 if necessary and they'll never really start ignoring GPA in a way that Northwestern or even NYU does. If Harvard ever had to drop to 170-171 it wouldn't be much of an issue because at that point the rest of the non-HYS T-14 would all be in the 160's.

[jbagelboy]

On the other hand those graphs show they still have a lot of room to drop on the GPA side. You'll know things have really gone south when Harvard starts being splitter friendly.

When do you see this occurring?

I don't. I think they'll just let it drop to 172 if necessary and they'll never really start ignoring GPA in a way that Northwestern or even NYU does. If Harvard ever had to drop to 170-171 it wouldn't be much of an issue because at that point the rest of the non-HYS T-14 would all be in the 160's.

Yea, this. 173 isn't some golden standard for HLS. It's all relative to the rest of the top schools. And they will always stay a point or two ahead. I'm sure someone can dig up Regulus's chart of admissions numbers of the past 12 years and see that all the medians have shifted over the years.

[cotiger]

On the other hand those graphs show they still have a lot of room to drop on the GPA side. You'll know things have really gone south when Harvard starts being splitter friendly.

When do you see this occurring?

I don't. I think they'll just let it drop to 172 if necessary and they'll never really start ignoring GPA in a way that Northwestern or even NYU does. If Harvard ever had to drop to 170-171 it wouldn't be much of an issue because at that point the rest of the non-HYS T-14 would all be in the 160's.

Yea, this. 173 isn't some golden standard for HLS. It's all relative to the rest of the top schools. And they will always stay a point or two ahead. I'm sure someone can dig up Regulus's chart of admissions numbers of the past 12 years and see that all the medians have shifted over the years.

Ask and you shall receive: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub ... SlE&gid=44

[bouleversement]

Regulus, where did you find the historic applicant volume data? Also, do you have a source for c/o 2016 numbers? About half of the T14 websites do not disclose a number for the most recent cycle. Did they all in the year prior?

[t14splitter]

Ask and you shall receive: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub ... SlE&gid=44

Snaps to Regulus. This is an amazing resource. I especially like the data comparing LSN acceptance rates to the general applicant pool.

Also thanks for finding this cotiger.

[bouleversement]

On the other hand those graphs show they still have a lot of room to drop on the GPA side. You'll know things have really gone south when Harvard starts being splitter friendly.

When do you see this occurring?

I don't. I think they'll just let it drop to 172 if necessary and they'll never really start ignoring GPA in a way that Northwestern or even NYU does. If Harvard ever had to drop to 170-171 it wouldn't be much of an issue because at that point the rest of the non-HYS T-14 would all be in the 160's.

I don't understand why they wouldn't use the discretionary bottom 25% of the GPA metric to snatch more 173+ LSATs. I am not saying going nuts with it but rather dipping down perhaps only to the 3.40 level.

I don't think they want to lose the median tie with YLS so someone disabuse me of why they wouldn't relax the floor a bit when it wouldn't have an affect on the reportable data?

[nothingtosee]

Couple questions regarding this doc:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub ... SlE&gid=44

2009 is the only year on hear H had a 172 median. That year they had 6,630 applicants. Last cycle had 5,438 applicants. What happened that year? Assuming the applicants are down another ~8% this year, I suppose it is feasible they could drop to a 172 median.

[bouleversement]

Couple questions regarding this doc:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub ... SlE&gid=44

2009 is the only year on hear H had a 172 median. That year they had 6,630 applicants. Last cycle had 5,438 applicants. What happened that year? Assuming the applicants are down another ~8% this year, I suppose it is feasible they could drop to a 172 median.

They were more stringent on maintaining the GPA floor? They are becoming less so?