UC Irvine School of Law's 2nd class statistics is out Forum

[imchuckbass58]

OC=3 million people. Maine and RI combined only have 2 mil people. Chicago only has 2 mil. OC is the 6th most populous county in the country. And I apologize, San Diego doesn't have 1 million people, it has 3 million. So that is 6 million people with no T1 - like the entire state of Mass. not having a single T1.

To give the perspective, this from the US Census Bureau - top US Counties by population:

1 Los Angeles County, CA 9,848,011
2 Cook County, IL 5,287,037
3 Harris County, TX 4,070,989
4 Maricopa County, AZ 4,023,132
5 San Diego County, CA 3,053,793
6 Orange County, CA 3,026,786

I think you can see the unique situation - I was wrong also about LA, the city has 4 mil, the county 9 mil. Anyway, the # 5 and 6 counties in the US have no T1 serviing them, and the #1 county is a short drive away...

Just for a last number- LA/OC/SD=16 million people. That would make just those three counties the fourth largest state, with only Texas, NY, and FL having more people - the whole state of NY only has 19 million people as a comparison. These counties have more people than the whole state of IL, PA, OH - and double what NJ has.

First, why does every county need a T1? You know, NYU and Columbia are in New York County, but there are no T1s in Kings County (Brooklyn, population 2.5 million), Queens County (2.3 million), Suffolk County (1.5 million), Bronx County, (1.3 million) and Nassau County (1.3 million). Should we stick a T1 in every one of those?

Second, why does every county need a law school period? A county is not its own legal market. In fact, the OC is probably part of the LA legal market, which already has TWO T1s, not to mention half a dozen other law schools. Are grads from UCLA and USC incapable of traveling 40 miles to the OC?

The New York metro area (22 million people) has only three T1s serving it, despite having a lot more legal work per capita due to the concentration of business and finance in the city. Does this mean it's underserved by T1s? No, because people can travel from HLS or YLS to New York, just like people can travel from the Bay Area (three more T1s) to the OC, or (more feasibly) FROM RIGHT NEXT DOOR IN LA to the OC.

I don't mind UCI in general, but the claim the OC is "underserved because it doesn't have its own T1" is absolutely ridiculous. The LA metro has two T1s. It is plenty well-served.

[NayBoer]

NYU and Columbia are in New York Country

qf unintentional commentary on NYC elitism

[imchuckbass58]

NYU and Columbia are in New York Country

qf unintentional commentary on NYC elitism

Unintentional?

[NayBoer]

NYU and Columbia are in New York Country

qf unintentional commentary on NYC elitism

Unintentional?

zing!

[Danteshek]

What percentage of UCI's class is from OC? I expect most UCI grads will come to LA when they graduate.

[ruleser]

The New York metro area (22 million people) has only three T1s serving it,

That is patently untrue. All of T14 serves the NY metro area. The point I made in my original post was Harvardites don't want to stay in OC, as the partners said - so they want a local T1 because T14ers are not rushing to fill it like they are NY. This applies to all those NY counties - there is massive competition for any job in NY. And instate in NY there is Cornell, NYU, Columbia, and Fordham - all gunning for the metro area, before you even get to the local BLS, Saint John, Cardozo, etc., etc. OC only had Chapman, which was small, newish, and just broke T2. SD only has a T2. That's two major markets, not coveted by T14ers, nor by UCLA/USCers due to crazy traffic/commute times. Those UCI scholarships were funded largely by the local legal community for a reason.

[imchuckbass58]

The New York metro area (22 million people) has only three T1s serving it,

That is patently untrue. All of T14 serves the NY metro area. The point I made in my original post was Harvardites don't want to stay in OC, as the partners said - so they want a local T1 because T14ers are not rushing to fill it like they are NY. This applies to all those NY counties - there is massive competition for any job in NY. And instate in NY there is Cornell, NYU, Columbia, and Fordham - all gunning for the metro area, before you even get to the local BLS, Saint John, Cardozo, etc., etc. OC only had Chapman, which was small, newish, and just broke T2. SD only has a T2. That's two major markets, not coveted by T14ers, nor by UCLA/USCers due to crazy traffic/commute times. Those UCI scholarships were funded largely by the local legal community for a reason.

I realize that's patently untrue, that's why I wrote it. The whole point is you can't judge a market by how may school are physically within its borders, but rather you should look to how many T1s are in the surrounding area.

People flock to LA from other areas that have T1s. Not to mention, there is no huge "OC legal market." If you are a medium or large corporation in the OC (of which there are probably relatively few since most base themselves in LA), you go to LA to get your legal work done, just like major businesses on Long Island go to Manhattan to get their legal work done. "The OC legal market" is largely normal day-to-day stuff (small business law, divorces, real estate closings, personal bankruptcy, etc). You can bet that if UCI cracks the top 20 as intended, UCI grads will not be practicing traffic accident law in the OC. They will go to LA and work for a big firm.

If you go to a T20, your relevant legal market is not where people are, it is where big firms are. And all the big firms are in LA, not the OC.

[ruleser]

If you go to a T20, your relevant legal market is not where people are, it is where big firms are. And all the big firms are in LA, not the OC.

The major firms have offices in the OC - its an increcibly wealthy county.

[awesomepossum]

If you go to a T20, your relevant legal market is not where people are, it is where big firms are. And all the big firms are in LA, not the OC.

The major firms have offices in the OC - its an increcibly wealthy county.

all of them? wowza.

[DOS]

Are you saying things are so good in LA right now that median USC/UCLA students are being tackled by LA law firms before they can even think to look for jobs in the OC or that the students would not stoop to taking a position offered by an OC firm during OCI? I find that hard to believe.

[ruleser]

Are you saying things are so good in LA right now that median USC/UCLA students are being tackled by LA law firms before they can even think to look for jobs in the OC or that the students would not stoop to taking a position offered by an OC firm during OCI? I find that hard to believe.

Not what I'm saying. I'm saying the OC firms have the experience of LA people/NY people/etc. wanting to go back to LA/NY after a few years. This has been a problem for years. They want a local T1 so they have people that will stay 20 years.

To above poster, yes, not every firm obviously has an office there, but plenty do, and there is no local T1 feeder for them.

[rayiner]

There isn't really an oversupply of lawyers. If you look at the statistics, the number of lawyers graduating from American schools barely grew between 1970-2000, and has grown in the past decade but not enough to come close to matching population growth.

The real problem is the skyrocketing tuition and the gap between biglaw and smalllaw salaries. In the mid 1990s, smalllaw paid like $45k and biglaw maybe $80k, and tuition was affordable. Now, smalllaw pays like $55k and biglaw pays $160k, but tuition is barely affordable even on a biglaw salary.

Not really knowledgeable enough on the statistics to have an opinion on oversupply, but don't like a fifth or more of JDs fail to ever work as attorneys? Do you figure that's mostly self-selection?

It's not self-selection, it's culling. Which happens in every industry --- lots of people don't make the cut in lots of professions, doesn't mean there is an "oversupply" per se.

--LinkRemoved--

In 1980, 30 years ago, there were 35,000 JDs awarded. In 2000, 20 years later, there were 39,000 JDs awarded, an increase of 11%. In that period, the US population increased from 226m to 281m, or a 24% increase. In this decade, the number of JDs awarded rose to about 43,500 last year, or a 11% increase since 2000 and a 24% increase since 1980. Meanwhile, the population grew 9% since 2000, and 36% since 1980.

The problem isn't the oversupply of lawyers, if anything fewer lawyers are graduating every year per capita than 30 years ago. The problem is skyrocketing tuition that makes getting a small-law job painful given typical debt loads.

http://www.law.umich.edu/historyandtrad ... istory.pdf

Michigan Law's out of state tuition was $11,000 in *2009 dollars* in 1980, and less than half that in-state. That's a 300% increase in 30 years, or a good 2% points annually above inflation.

[Blindmelon]

There is no such thing as an under-served legal market. The very concept makes me chuckle, then makes me frown, then makes me curl into a ball and scream desperate tears of agony.

Disagreed - theres no T1 in Maine or RI, therefore we should open up law schools there too. Northern NJ have RU-Newark and Southern Jersey has RU-Camden, but what about Central Jersey? Under served market, lets open a law school.

Anyone interested in starting a law school with me? Stanford Law was started by someone who went to BU Law, so I think this could work. Of course, I'd have to be Dean - Biglaw Partner > 500k, Law school Dean > 500k + better hours. Cha-ching!

OC=3 million people. Maine and RI combined only have 2 mil people. Chicago only has 2 mil. OC is the 6th most populous county in the country. And I apologize, San Diego doesn't have 1 million people, it has 3 million. So that is 6 million people with no T1 - like the entire state of Mass. not having a single T1.

To give the perspective, this from the US Census Bureau - top US Counties by population:

1 Los Angeles County, CA 9,848,011
2 Cook County, IL 5,287,037
3 Harris County, TX 4,070,989
4 Maricopa County, AZ 4,023,132
5 San Diego County, CA 3,053,793
6 Orange County, CA 3,026,786

I think you can see the unique situation - I was wrong also about LA, the city has 4 mil, the county 9 mil. Anyway, the # 5 and 6 counties in the US have no T1 serviing them, and the #1 county is a short drive away...

Just for a last number- LA/OC/SD=16 million people. That would make just those three counties the fourth largest state, with only Texas, NY, and FL having more people - the whole state of NY only has 19 million people as a comparison. These counties have more people than the whole state of IL, PA, OH - and double what NJ has.

Yea, because UCLA/USC grads who can't find jobs right now would not go to OC. This makes no sense. Just because there isn't a law school down the street, doesn't mean the area isn't served by other schools. Thats my point.

CA is huge but theres Stanford, Berkeley, UCLA, USC, UCD, UCH, UCSD and whatever other schools I don't know about. I'd say OC employers aren't hurting for workers when theres unemployed desperate UCLA/USC grads out there.

[DarkwingDick]

Top cities for UCLA grads:

http://californiabar.globl.org/report.p ... 0&g=2&pp=5

Top cities for USC grads:

http://californiabar.globl.org/report.p ... 0&g=2&pp=5

[ruleser]

Top cities for UCLA grads:

http://californiabar.globl.org/report.p ... 0&g=2&pp=5

Top cities for USC grads:

http://californiabar.globl.org/report.p ... 0&g=2&pp=5

So according to this almost no UCLA grads go to work in the OC, and very few USCers do.

[DarkwingDick]

Sorry, I'm an idiot. I should've just done it by county in the first place.

UCLA:
http://californiabar.globl.org/report.p ... 0&g=2&pp=5

USC:
http://californiabar.globl.org/report.p ... 0&g=2&pp=5

[ruleser]

Yea, because UCLA/USC grads who can't find jobs right now would not go to OC. This makes no sense. Just because there isn't a law school down the street, doesn't mean the area isn't served by other schools. Thats my point.

CA is huge but theres Stanford, Berkeley, UCLA, USC, UCD, UCH, UCSD and whatever other schools I don't know about. I'd say OC employers aren't hurting for workers when theres unemployed desperate UCLA/USC grads out there.

Reposted for repeated/similar comment: I'm saying the OC firms have the experience of LA people/NY people/etc. wanting to go back to LA/NY after a few years. This has been a problem for years. They want a local T1 so they have people that will stay 20 years.

[ruleser]

Sorry, I'm an idiot. I should've just done it by county in the first place.

UCLA:
http://californiabar.globl.org/report.p ... 0&g=2&pp=5

USC:
http://californiabar.globl.org/report.p ... 0&g=2&pp=5

Um, the point is the same: less than 8% of UCLA grads go to work in the OC, about 10% of USCers. That is almost none/very few, as I said above.

[NayBoer]

Or just do schools per county:

http://californiabar.globl.org/report.p ... 0&g=2&pp=5

http://californiabar.globl.org/report.p ... 0&g=2&pp=5

Looks pretty similar, except for Western State dominating OC.

[ruleser]

Or just do schools per county:

http://californiabar.globl.org/report.p ... 0&g=2&pp=5

http://californiabar.globl.org/report.p ... 0&g=2&pp=5

Looks pretty similar, except for Western State dominating OC.

Similar to what? There are basically no OC schools on there - LA has 5 of the top 6 - Chapman doesn't even show up until #10 - Western State is a T4 up in Fullerton. You can go up and down that list without finding anything serving OC directly, save the newly T2 Chapman.

[270910]

There are more than 200 career services offices that are dealing, each and every one, with dozens to hundreds of unemployed or underemployed 2Ls, 3Ls, and graduates. I'm going to just repeat this and hope the stupid goes away:

There is no such thing as an under-served legal market. The very concept makes me chuckle, then makes me frown, then makes me curl into a ball and scream desperate tears of agony.

[NayBoer]

Also interesting to run Cities per County, to see the state of the legal market.

http://californiabar.globl.org/report.p ... 0&g=2&pp=5

http://californiabar.globl.org/report.p ... 0&g=2&pp=5

So LA has ~3.3 times as many attorneys, and roughly half of all attorneys in the county are listed as being in the city of LA. Orange is much more split, with the largest city (Irvine) less than a quarter of all Orange attorneys and so less dominant over other cities in the county.

A more thorough analysis would look at the types of law practiced there, to see how it compares to LA. One way to measure this quickly would be the size, number, and practice areas of large local firms and biglaw offices.

[DarkwingDick]

This website is amazing. If you click on the school, it gives you a list broken down by INDIVIDUAL, listing what kind of firm/organization they work for, where they did their ugrad and other fun stuff.

[ruleser]

Also interesting to run Cities per County, to see the state of the legal market.

http://californiabar.globl.org/report.p ... 0&g=2&pp=5

http://californiabar.globl.org/report.p ... 0&g=2&pp=5

So LA has ~3.3 times as many attorneys, and roughly half of all attorneys in the county are listed as being in the city of LA. Orange is much more split, with the largest city (Irvine) less than a quarter of all Orange attorneys and so less dominant over other cities in the county.

A more thorough analysis would look at the types of law practiced there, to see how it compares to LA. One way to measure this quickly would be the size, number, and practice areas of large local firms and biglaw offices.

I hope you're not billing by the hour for this research.

Anyway, got run, but all I know is what OC partners/judges have said, and what I was told by profs at an LA school - that UCI is a 'prestigious' program, 'running w/the big dogs', 'is known about nationally' I was shocked to be told this, as it was that other school's ASD. They all were very impressed when you tell them you get in.

Maybe it's all a trick, but that's what I know...

[NayBoer]

It's not a trick. UCI > LLS.