Is Duke Out of the picture? Forum

AlexandraHope · Post by **AlexandraHope** » Sat Jul 18, 2015 3:01 am

After a rough school year I am down to a 3.2 overall GPA. I take the LSAT in October and I'm hoping for a score in the 170s ( Just hit 160 with PT). I am not applying until December, after I receive my fall semester grades-- so hopefully I'll be up to a 3.3. But I'm wondering will that be too late. Honestly, is Duke out of the picture for me?

Calbears123 · Post by **Calbears123** » Sat Jul 18, 2015 3:10 am

Nothing is out of the picture until you get your LSAT score back, but at the same time nothing is also "in" the picture until you get a LSAT score back.

AlexandraHope · Post by **AlexandraHope** » Sat Jul 18, 2015 4:54 am

Calbears123 wrote:Nothing is out of the picture until you get your LSAT score back, but at the same time nothing is also "in" the picture until you get a LSAT score back.

Thank You for your response. So if my LSAT is high enough, I still have a shot? That gives me hope

Lawdood · Post by **Lawdood** » Sat Jul 18, 2015 6:38 am

I'd say that you can get into duke with a mid 170s LSAT

terrier27 · Post by **terrier27** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 3:19 am

What type of URM are you?

AlexandraHope · Post by **AlexandraHope** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 7:44 pm

terrier27 wrote:What type of URM are you?

Black Female

PoopNpants · Post by **PoopNpants** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 7:51 pm

Lawdood wrote:I'd say that you can get into duke with a mid 170s LSAT

Nah, 170 and in. Maybe 167+ too

shump92 · Post by **shump92** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 7:52 pm

You don't need mid 170s for Duke or the schools in T14 that would take a URM splitter. 165+ should really do the trick with some scholarship potential. The higher you can get though, the more likely schools would be to not be concerned with your lower GPA.

runinthefront · Post by **runinthefront** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 7:58 pm

Duke, Berkeley, Penn, and Stanford all like reverse splitters. In my opinion, a 168, 3.3 = out at those schools but in at NYU/Columbia, Mich, Cornell, et al.

Just my .02 cents.

PoopNpants · Post by **PoopNpants** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 8:05 pm

runinthefront wrote:Duke, Berkeley, Penn, and Stanford all like reverse splitters. In my opinion, a 168, 3.3 = out at those schools but in at NYU/Columbia, Mich, Cornell, et al.

Just my .02 cents.

Yeah but your talking bout an AA URM here, I highly doubt a 3.3/168 is getting rejected from Duke/Penn. Probably stanford though

runinthefront · Post by **runinthefront** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 8:10 pm

I'm speaking from what I know. But ok

terrier27 · Post by **terrier27** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 9:06 pm

PoopNpants · Post by **PoopNpants** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 9:07 pm

runinthefront wrote:I'm speaking from what I know. But ok

I'm not disagree with you, URM cycles are notoriously unpredictable though who knows. Your right about Berk preferring high GPA splitters though

basedvulpes · Post by **basedvulpes** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 9:22 pm

Post removed.

terrier27 · Post by **terrier27** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 9:31 pm

basedvulpes wrote:
runinthefront wrote:Duke, Berkeley, Penn, and Stanford all like reverse splitters. In my opinion, a 168, 3.3 = out at those schools but in at NYU/Columbia, Mich, Cornell, et al.

Just my .02 cents.
By reverse splitter you mean higher than median GPA/lower than median LSAT? Or the other way around?

reverse splitter is high gpa/low lsat

basedvulpes · Post by **basedvulpes** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 9:38 pm

Post removed.

180kickflip · Post by **180kickflip** » Fri Jul 24, 2015 8:23 am

PoopNpants wrote:
runinthefront wrote:Duke, Berkeley, Penn, and Stanford all like reverse splitters. In my opinion, a 168, 3.3 = out at those schools but in at NYU/Columbia, Mich, Cornell, et al.

Just my .02 cents.
Yeah but your talking bout an AA URM here, I highly doubt a 3.3/168 is getting rejected from Duke/Penn. Probably stanford though

3.3/168 AA is basically auto-reject at Stanford, likely accept with little $ or waitlist at Duke, and waitlist at Penn. Could do a little bit better than that, could do a little worse.

PoopNpants · Post by **PoopNpants** » Fri Jul 24, 2015 9:11 am

180kickflip wrote:
PoopNpants wrote:
runinthefront wrote:Duke, Berkeley, Penn, and Stanford all like reverse splitters. In my opinion, a 168, 3.3 = out at those schools but in at NYU/Columbia, Mich, Cornell, et al.

Just my .02 cents.
Yeah but your talking bout an AA URM here, I highly doubt a 3.3/168 is getting rejected from Duke/Penn. Probably stanford though
3.3/168 AA is basically auto-reject at Stanford, likely accept with little $ or waitlist at Duke, and waitlist at Penn. Could do a little bit better than that, could do a little worse.

What are you basing this off? anecdotal experience or actual data?

runinthefront · Post by **runinthefront** » Fri Jul 24, 2015 9:13 am

I mean the above poster basically just parroted what I said, and I know I'm speaking from anecdotal and/or personal experience.

runinthefront · Post by **runinthefront** » Fri Jul 24, 2015 9:16 am

URM cycles are more unpredictable than ORM cycles, but they aren't grossly unpredictable.

180kickflip · Post by **180kickflip** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 12:06 am

PoopNpants wrote:
180kickflip wrote:
PoopNpants wrote:
runinthefront wrote:Duke, Berkeley, Penn, and Stanford all like reverse splitters. In my opinion, a 168, 3.3 = out at those schools but in at NYU/Columbia, Mich, Cornell, et al.

Just my .02 cents.
Yeah but your talking bout an AA URM here, I highly doubt a 3.3/168 is getting rejected from Duke/Penn. Probably stanford though
3.3/168 AA is basically auto-reject at Stanford, likely accept with little $ or waitlist at Duke, and waitlist at Penn. Could do a little bit better than that, could do a little worse.
What are you basing this off? anecdotal experience or actual data?

Just about all we have to estimate anyone's chances (URM or not) is a compilation of anecdata points, but at this point, we've got enough of them to make pretty reliable predications. I'd say that URM cycles can be unpredictable in that mid 150s and/or below both 25ths can snag t14 acceptances, but at the upper ranges, I think things have been pretty consistent for awhile. Every 3.3ish/168ish applicant I've seen has been shot down at S (myself included), and that falls right in line with their preference for high GPA over LSAT. For an AA, that balance starts to tip the other way when you get to/above 170.

I say P is a waitlist, because they YP like crazy. Look at last years URM cycle results, and you can see that. Likely accept with little $ at Duke because again...that's what has happened the last 3+ cycles. For most applicants, the situation with Duke $ quickly becomes a non-issue because with those numbers, lower t14 (Mich, NW, Cornell) will rain $. That doesn't help much for someone with real reasons to prioritize Duke, but since NYC is where they send the biggest chunk of their class, going somewhere else with more money to end up in the same place usually makes sense.

I really really wish that wasn't all true because I'd probably be at my target school right now, but it is what it is =/

Clearly · Post by **Clearly** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 12:11 am

lol a 3.3 168 AA female is 100% getting Penn.

PoopNpants · Post by **PoopNpants** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 9:07 am

180kickflip wrote:
PoopNpants wrote:
180kickflip wrote:
PoopNpants wrote:
runinthefront wrote:Duke, Berkeley, Penn, and Stanford all like reverse splitters. In my opinion, a 168, 3.3 = out at those schools but in at NYU/Columbia, Mich, Cornell, et al.

Just my .02 cents.
Yeah but your talking bout an AA URM here, I highly doubt a 3.3/168 is getting rejected from Duke/Penn. Probably stanford though
3.3/168 AA is basically auto-reject at Stanford, likely accept with little $ or waitlist at Duke, and waitlist at Penn. Could do a little bit better than that, could do a little worse.
What are you basing this off? anecdotal experience or actual data?
Just about all we have to estimate anyone's chances (URM or not) is a compilation of anecdata points, but at this point, we've got enough of them to make pretty reliable predications. I'd say that URM cycles can be unpredictable in that mid 150s and/or below both 25ths can snag t14 acceptances, but at the upper ranges, I think things have been pretty consistent for awhile. Every 3.3ish/168ish applicant I've seen has been shot down at S (myself included), and that falls right in line with their preference for high GPA over LSAT. For an AA, that balance starts to tip the other way when you get to/above 170.

I say P is a waitlist, because they YP like crazy. Look at last years URM cycle results, and you can see that. Likely accept with little $ at Duke because again...that's what has happened the last 3+ cycles. For most applicants, the situation with Duke $ quickly becomes a non-issue because with those numbers, lower t14 (Mich, NW, Cornell) will rain $. That doesn't help much for someone with real reasons to prioritize Duke, but since NYC is where they send the biggest chunk of their class, going somewhere else with more money to end up in the same place usually makes sense.

I really really wish that wasn't all true because I'd probably be at my target school right now, but it is what it is =/

Yeah I agree with that

180kickflip · Post by **180kickflip** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 9:59 am

Clearly wrote:lol a 3.3 168 AA female is 100% getting Penn.

Can't tell if this is sarcastic or not, but I'd hate for an AA female really targeting Penn to read this and get disappointed with the way her cycle plays out. A lot of people have great cycles (t6 acceptances, full scholys, etc) and still get waitlisted at P due to their extreme YP.

Admittedly, these aren't all AA females (though the AA males should have even better cycles due to the smaller applicant pool), but just last year's TLS cycle results show the following applicants waitlisted at Penn. These are real people with the numbers we're talking about (or better) not getting Penn. It could be argued that some are probably picked up off the waitlist, but I don't remember Penn being one of the schools that draws heavily from their WL, and even if they did pick someone off, that'd almost definitely give too little $ for attending to be a reasonable decision.

3.2x/168 AA
3.3/169 AA
3.4x/170 AA (but accepted at H)
3.9/168 MA (but accepted at YHS)
no GPA/170 AA (but accepted at H)
3.7/165 AA (but accepted at H)

PoopNpants · Post by **PoopNpants** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 10:03 am

180kickflip wrote:
Clearly wrote:lol a 3.3 168 AA female is 100% getting Penn.
Can't tell if this is sarcastic or not, but I'd hate for an AA female really targeting Penn to read this and get disappointed with the way her cycle plays out. A lot of people have great cycles (t6 acceptances, full scholys, etc) and still get waitlisted at P due to their extreme YP.

Admittedly, these aren't all AA females (though the AA males should have even better cycles due to the smaller applicant pool), but just last year's TLS cycle results show the following applicants waitlisted at Penn.

3.2x/168 AA
3.3/169 AA
3.4x/170 AA (but accepted at H)
3.9/168 MA (but accepted at YHS)
no GPA/170 AA (but accepted at H)
3.7/165 AA (but accepted at H)

Wow fuck Penn seriously