I don't think his post discourages people from applying at all. He is just saying form the material we have, URMs with higher GPA's are more likely to get into T-14 schools. I can see that. they like people with high LSATs to but we just know more people who have been reported have higher gpas.Hi-So - ArshavinFan wrote:I don't understand how the key thing here is "could". AAs at t14s normally have high gpas and low lsats relative to the other students. I'm not talking about a 158 score here. I'm talking about around a 160-165 ( Clear case of confirmation bias here again)PrezRand wrote:Hi-So - ArshavinFan wrote:The key thing here is COULD.PrezRand wrote:I think AA's are a rarity because there are a lot who have good LSATs but low gpas relative to t14 students and other AA students just don't apply to law school. It sucks
It's easier to get into law school being a URM with a 3.7+ than a 173. Jnwa didn't crack HYS. Someone with a 3.8 163 could do that.
First things first, you are deluded in thinking that if a Black/AA applicant got into Harvard with a low GPA, he would post it on LSN. I know one who has, and he definitely didnt.
Let's look at the facts: http://www.abarequireddisclosures.org/
If you look up Harvard for 2016, we know for a fact 33 AAs got in for their 1L year. We dont know all their GPA ( i only know one, but his GPA low, LSAT high - but he went to an Ivy though)
I'm willing to argue that most of the URM that list their stats or info on TLS/LSN are not Ivy league ( or even T15 schools on USNWR) - this really alters a LOT for their rest of us. For anybody else, it's not as possible. But it is indeed possible.
the one constant here, is that we dont know anything! We only can guess, but to really know is difficult.
I am not deluded into anything. It is far more likely for a URM student to get in with a high gpa low lsat than with a low gpa high lsat. Men lie. Women lie. Numbers don't. ( Again, Confirmation bias)
What numbers though?????? - How many people with sub 3.5 or ( even sub 3.3 GPA URMS --- particularly AA ones-- post on myLSN to T14? You don't know. You're making assumptions based off of what you see on this site. But you don't have access to all the numbers.. How can you just make assumptions. Thats incredulous. Also, to believe that everyones numbers/profile on myLSN is factual either??? - I'm not willing to make that bet.
Your theory would seem to be true for an applicant who is KJD ( or 1-2 avg WE) & did not go to a T20 School or top 5 LAC, yes, I agree with you there. But from what I know about these schools, these kids can get in with even sub 3 GPA into T14 schools - and trust me, they wont post about it on here.
What I'm trying to point out ( i'm not sure that youre seeing it), is that its not clearcut that all ( even most) T14 schools prefer GPA over LSAT for URMs - in particular AA's ( lets say 3.7 /160 v 3.3/170 or even 3.2/165 in my case). It's just that they will accept the high GPAs as there is wayyy more of them. I'm willing to bet that if there was ever more than about 100 AA who scored a 165+ who had 3.2 GPAs or higher, that mechanism would totally change. In any case, i'm sure higher GPA is correlated with higher LSAT anyway, so either way - both splitters are under-performing. That's the fact.
You're making absolute statements based on hypotheses which aren't factually proven. And that's dangerous on this sub. Because that only discourages people from posting on this forum which would hep us analyze this more closely. Particularly people who have gotten in with low GPA/LSAT. That's where the negativity comes in. You aren't directly being negative, but it can be discouraging.
For the most part URM cycles are unpredictable. I bet if I told people my stats in a chance me thread they would 100% tell me I have zero chance of getting into any top 20 with Money and you know what. They would be dead wrong lol. We are just looking at what we have to make sense of it.