T20 Rankings for Generic BL Barring NYC Market Forum

[nightfly]

Hope I'm posting this in the right place. If one's goal is generic BL in any market other than NYC (i.e., under no circumstances would he/she be willing to practice BL in NYC), do the T20 rankings shake out the same? Or do they change for this specific goal? For example, do UVA and Berkeley jump ahead of Columbia and NYU? Northwestern over Duke? GULC/UCLA/UT/USC/Vandy over Cornell?

[The Lsat Airbender]

If you have non-NYC ties, the only change I'd make is to bump Cornell down a tier. I can maybe see an argument to bump Columbia/NYU down as well (to be level with the "lower T14" rather than Chicago, which along with HYS is as close as you'll get to a sure thing.)

I don't think any of your "jump ahead" perceptions really make sense because NYC is such an important component of the biglaw numbers for all of them. You're increasing your chances of striking out, which is the main danger of a lower-ranked school in the first place. In other words, the main thing that changes in the calculus is that avoiding debt is even more important.

[Bonzeye]

Perhaps not something you want to hear, but deciding you don't like the biggest and most easily accessible legal market in the country, at the beginning of your career, might be a mistake.

My brother ended up like bottom 30% at a t10 in '18 and may have struck out completely if not for his conservative bidding and willingness to work anywhere.

[nightfly]

Appreciate the insightful feedback! So, would it be fair to say that the odds of striking out on non-NYC generic BL increase as you move down the rankings? Or are there any exceptions to this, e.g., a greater chance of striking out on non-NYC generic BL at Michigan than at UCLA?

Per LST, 27.5% of 2018 Michigan grads ended up in NYC, compared to just 6% of 2018 UCLA grads. If we assume all of those who relocated to NYC from both schools did so for BL, then the percentage of Michigan grads with non-NYC big firm placement drops to 26.5%, whereas UCLA's non-NYC big firm placement only falls to 38%. This is a fairly significant margin, and I realize that clerkships and self-selection into NYC BL for Michigan grads muddy the waters, but I guess what I trying to get at is whether or not an 0L interested in generic BL who (perhaps unwisely) refuses to consider practicing in the NYC market might have added incentive to attend a super regional T20 over some of the lower T14.

Also, is there any data on the percentage of BL jobs available in each of the major markets? A couple searches haven't turned up anything, but I am wondering what percentage of total BL jobs the NYC market accounts for.

[QContinuum]

NYC is by far the largest BigLaw market in the country.

The next largest are California (Bay Area/LA), D.C. and Texas (Houston/Dallas). California and D.C. are very grades-selective (outside of Yale/Stanford, which don't really have grades). Houston isn't particularly grades-selective, but you should still have some articulable "why Texas" reason (beyond liking the low COL).

The remaining BigLaw markets of any significance are significantly smaller, more insular, or both. Chicago is a fairly limited market, heavily targeted by Chicago/NW students, as well as other T13 students looking to return home to the Windy City. Even with ties, no one should rely on landing Chicago unless they have terrific grades, preferably at YSH/Chicago/NW. Same for Boston, which is heavily targeted by HLS students looking to stay in the city, and is also dramatically overrepresented as a hometown/destination of choice amongst T13 law students more generally, and a similar story for Seattle. Florida is tiny and very insular, outside of YSH. Same for Atlanta. The other cities with a BIgLaw presence have so few slots it isn't really worth enumerating them. It's kind of surprising how many major U.S. cities have an almost negligible BigLaw presence (Portland, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, San Diego, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Phoenix, Tucson, Charlotte, Nashville, New Orleans, Memphis, Kansas City, Detroit, Austin, San Antonio, Albuquerque, Vegas, Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Baltimore...).

[The Lsat Airbender]

Is it really so surprising? It depends on how you count, but the NYC/LA/Chi/DC/Houston/Dallas metro areas are more or less the six biggest in the country. SF is a weird outlier but has the massive economic tailwind of the tech industry propping it up.

Everything else is a secondary or tertiary market, with the distinction depending mainly on whether a city has a decent-sized economic hinterland to draw on (Boston/Atlanta/Seattle/Denver/Miami, e.g.).

Philadelphia and Phoenix are probably the two cities that punch furthest below their weight; the former gets its lunch money stolen by NYC/DC being so nearby and the latter has only become important relatively recently.

[QContinuum]

Is it really so surprising? It depends on how you count, but the NYC/LA/Chi/DC/Houston/Dallas metro areas are more or less the six biggest in the country. SF is a weird outlier but has the massive economic tailwind of the tech industry propping it up.

Everything else is a secondary or tertiary market, with the distinction depending mainly on whether a city has a decent-sized economic hinterland to draw on (Boston/Atlanta/Seattle/Denver/Miami, e.g.).

Philadelphia and Phoenix are probably the two cities that punch furthest below their weight; the former gets its lunch money stolen by NYC/DC being so nearby and the latter has only become important relatively recently.

I mean, I think it's surprising, when you compare it to the number of major cities with a sizable tech presence. You have plenty of tech jobs in cities like Denver, Birmingham, Phoenix, Kansas City, Minneapolis, Seattle, Portland, Boston, Austin, Cincinnati/Columbus/Cleveland, none of which have a large BigLaw presence (Boston probably has the largest number of BigLaw slots among those cities, and even Boston's BigLaw market is fairly limited in size).

One would think that the same forces that led the F500 to spread out into these other cities would also have led the AmLaw 200 to spread out, but apparently not, aside from Jones Day.

[nightfly]

Great info on the market landscape; thanks!

A couple questions: 1. How do the top markets (NYC/LA/DC/Chicago/Houston/Dallas/SF) rank in terms of competitiveness? 2. I'm still wondering about the extent to which one's unwillingness to practice in NYC (despite a generic BL goal) might move the needle in the classic cheaper T20 vs. more expensive T14 debate. Thoughts?

[LBJ's Hair]

Great info on the market landscape; thanks!

A couple questions: 1. How do the top markets (NYC/LA/DC/Chicago/Houston/Dallas/SF) rank in terms of competitiveness? 2. I'm still wondering about the extent to which one's unwillingness to practice in NYC (despite a generic BL goal) might move the needle in the classic cheaper T20 vs. more expensive T14 debate. Thoughts?

You should reconsider your "no NYC" position.

That said, in terms of easiest-to-hardest places to get *a* legal job, it's probably like

1a. NY (there are just so, so many more BigLaw jobs here)
1b. your school's major non-NY legal market, if there is one (so this is Houston/Dallas for UT, SF/LA for Berkeley/Stanford, Chicago for UChicago/NW, etc)
2. a non-NY major market to which you have ties
3. a non-NY major market to which you have no ties

Even if you absolutely refuse to work in NYC, don't *think* your school preference shift to a point where you're taking a UCLA, say, over a T10. My sense is say, the median Penn student has a better chance of getting a non-NY BigLaw than the median UCLA student does, even accounting for the fact that LA (and to a lesser degree SF) is its home market and the Penn student doesn't have one because you refuse to work in NYC.

But Chicago, Northwestern, and Berkeley would all be particularly attractive for you. And Columbia, NYU, Penn comparatively less so, although still good outcomes.

FWIW, the DC legal market might be the most competitive in the country, especially without ties. So I'm not sure if a median UVA student with no ties is a "lock" for *a* BigLaw in DC there---others could speak to that, no idea personally.

[The Lsat Airbender]

LBJ got to it first and I agree with his broad ranking.

The school-choice decision varies a ton based on 1) what specific schools, 2) what non-NYC markets you prefer (I refuse to believe that someone could have a strong opinion about New York but not have any preference among Chicago, Houston, and SF/SV), 3) what the financial delta is and 4) where your preexisting ties, if any, are.

I hate to sound like a rankings ho, but HYSChicago are probably the only schools you can matriculate to and feel truly confident about getting non-NYC biglaw (all except Yale have a decent grasp on a big home market, and all 4 are decent for DC). If you can't get into one of those schools, then I agree with LBJ that "no NYC" and "biglaw" are rather incompatible goals.