NALP Class of 2011 Employment Stats Selected Findings Forum

[jenesaislaw]

As more things appear, they'll be here: http://www.nalp.org/classof2011

For now, it includes just the press release and selected findings.

Of note:
* 85.6% of 2011 graduates were employed, which means nothing because it includes non-legal jobs, school-funded jobs, short-term jobs, and part-time jobs.
* 65.4% of 2011 graduates were in legal jobs (jobs requiring bar passage and an active license).
* We do not yet know what % is in full-time, long-term legal jobs. NALP tells me they're still computing these figures.
* I heard today, though not from NALP, that 5% of employed graduates were in jobs funded by schools. These programs are expensive, so it's only schools with deep pockets or flexible budgets (which amounts to current students footing the bill). This means we're likely to see a bimodal distribution of schools. When the school-specific numbers come out (very, very soon), we'll probably see one chunk around 0-2% and another around 9-11%.
* There were 1000 fewer jobs requiring bar passage this year as opposed to last year.
* Jim Leipold, NALP's executive director, hopes this is the bottom. It is unclear how well the market will rebound, though it appears certain we're closer to a new normal.

What remains true before 2008 remains true today: law schools are graduating too many people. The profession simply cannot handle it.

[ajaxconstructions]

Well class of 2011 was the bottom (so far) of the recession right?

[thelaststraw05]

What remains really frustrating about this data is that the Class of 2011 data = OCI2009. As we go into OCI2012, the most recent data we have for how the market is doing is OCI2009.

The schools have a better idea than NALP if we are actually at bottom. Because they can see their students outcomes from OCI2010 and OCI2011.

[jenesaislaw]

Take note:

"Absent another significant national or international economic setback, I would expect to see some aspects of the employment profile for the next two classes begin to inch up — though there is nothing to indicate a rapid recovery or a likely return to pre-recession employment levels any time in the near future," Leipold said.

http://law.com/jsp/nlj/PubArticleNLJ.js ... 2558291685

[sunynp]

The ATL story on this is here: http://abovethelaw.com/2012/06/how-did- ... ob-market/

Let’s look on the bright side. “This class may represent the bottom of the employment curve for this economic cycle,” said Jim Leipold of NALP. “Our fall recruiting data from the last two years indicate that at least recruiting activity for the Classes of 2012 and 2013 increased, if somewhat modestly.”

[ahnhub]

What remains really frustrating about this data is that the Class of 2011 data = OCI2009. As we go into OCI2012, the most recent data we have for how the market is doing is OCI2009.

The schools have a better idea than NALP if we are actually at bottom. Because they can see their students outcomes from OCI2010 and OCI2011.

If you read TLS a lot you can get a decent feel for how c/o 2012 and 13 are doing (at least in terms of Biglaw and OCI). You have to account for psychological factors and trolling, but you can still get a feel.

[anewaphorist]

All of ATL's recent warnings seem to do nothing but reinforce the TLS mantra: don't pay sticker at any school outside the T14.

[minnbills]

What remains really frustrating about this data is that the Class of 2011 data = OCI2009. As we go into OCI2012, the most recent data we have for how the market is doing is OCI2009.

This is only true for employers that hire exclusively from OCI, and most legal positions are not filled from OCI.

This data is really discouraging. I would have expected a more noticeable uptick commensurate with the rest of the economy.

[RedBirds2011]

What remains really frustrating about this data is that the Class of 2011 data = OCI2009. As we go into OCI2012, the most recent data we have for how the market is doing is OCI2009.

The schools have a better idea than NALP if we are actually at bottom. Because they can see their students outcomes from OCI2010 and OCI2011.

If you read TLS a lot you can get a decent feel for how c/o 2012 and 13 are doing (at least in terms of Biglaw and OCI). You have to account for psychological factors and trolling, but you can still get a feel.

The problem is the psychological and trolling factors are a huge issue.

[ahnhub]

If you read TLS a lot you can get a decent feel for how c/o 2012 and 13 are doing (at least in terms of Biglaw and OCI). You have to account for psychological factors and trolling, but you can still get a feel.

The problem is the psychological and trolling factors are a huge issue.

Sure they are. If someone posts as a 2L from Columbia and says 80% of OCI participants got an offer from Biglaw, I mean--that info's just out there. You either think it's actually a 2L from Columbia with actual info, or you think some a-hole is playing games with you. I generally don't think TLS has devolved to the point where a lot of people just make stuff up for fun.

[jenesaislaw]

It's key to ask how the Columbia 2L found that out. Is it something released by the school, or is it an estimate based on his or her friends?

For example, I'd say that my friends in law school did substantially better than the rest of the class at OCI. Had I projected my experiences onto the entire class, the 2011 data for Vandy would look substantially better.

[RedBirds2011]

It's key to ask how the Columbia 2L found that out. Is it something released by the school, or is it an estimate based on his or her friends?

For example, I'd say that my friends in law school did substantially better than the rest of the class at OCI. Had I projected my experiences onto the entire class, the 2011 data for Vandy would look substantially better.

Exactly this. It's not that they would just be making stuff up necessarily. It's that his take on it may be tainted by his own experience rather than truly objective numbers.

[ahnhub]

It's key to ask how the Columbia 2L found that out. Is it something released by the school, or is it an estimate based on his or her friends?

For example, I'd say that my friends in law school did substantially better than the rest of the class at OCI. Had I projected my experiences onto the entire class, the 2011 data for Vandy would look substantially better.

Of course. Multiple people from CLS/NYU were posting that it was back to "Biglaw for everyone" after this past OCI, and that every single person they were acquainted with had a summer SA offer. I obviously was skeptical of those claims, but just the fact that multiple people would say something that bold indicated things had gotten better, at least OCI-wise. Later someone posted an actual number (Columbia OCS loves to give out OCI numbers) and it was basically what I expected--much, much better than 2009; not as bright as those earlier posters were saying.

[minnbills]

I'm actually baffled by this. How could things have gotten worse if the economy in general was improving? Are we that reliant on OCI for national employment numbers to pan out?

[flem]

I'm actually baffled by this. How could things have gotten worse if the economy in general was improving? Are we that reliant on OCI for national employment numbers to pan out?

Don't firms make decisions on summer class sizes the previous year before OCI? eg, a firm has based its SA class they will hire on OCI '09 based on '08 economy?

[RedBirds2011]

I'm actually baffled by this. How could things have gotten worse if the economy in general was improving? Are we that reliant on OCI for national employment numbers to pan out?

The job market in general really hasn't been improving that much. We really havent hit a true recovery in the past 4 years.

[minnbills]

I'm actually baffled by this. How could things have gotten worse if the economy in general was improving? Are we that reliant on OCI for national employment numbers to pan out?

Don't firms make decisions on summer class sizes the previous year before OCI? eg, a firm has based its SA class they will hire on OCI '09 based on '08 economy?

Well my confusion addresses employers outside those who do OCI. I expected biglaw numbers to stay fairly static, whereas other employers (like small firms who might hire after graduation) would have an uptick.

Red: I was expecting a bit of growth, nothing that substantial but at the very least marginally better numbers.

[Bronck]

It's key to ask how the Columbia 2L found that out. Is it something released by the school, or is it an estimate based on his or her friends?

For example, I'd say that my friends in law school did substantially better than the rest of the class at OCI. Had I projected my experiences onto the entire class, the 2011 data for Vandy would look substantially better.

Exactly this. It's not that they would just be making stuff up necessarily. It's that his take on it may be tainted by his own experience rather than truly objective numbers.

The school had a mandatory meeting for 1Ls where they released the information. I've met the duder too. If I recall the numbers were 92% participated in OCI and 85% received an offer through it.

[ahnhub]

I'm actually baffled by this. How could things have gotten worse if the economy in general was improving? Are we that reliant on OCI for national employment numbers to pan out?

In 2009, 6709 of respondents reported finding their job through OCI. It's a huge chunk, and importantly it also comprises most of the desirable (high-paying) private-sector jobs. Why so many big law firms choose to hire 2 years in advance--that's beyond me. It's probably just more bullshit.

The depressing thing you realize after studying the numbers is that there really might not be this huge non-Biglaw legal sector that graduates can rely on. Biglaw has been gobbling everything up the past few decades, pushing other private-sector work to the opposite end of the wage and size scale. There are lots of non-Biglaw jobs, yes, but they are concentrated in the 2-10 attorney size category, which is really low-paying compared to debt. Just more evidence the legal industry has just been catering to greed and screwing over its own people.

[timbs4339]

I'm actually baffled by this. How could things have gotten worse if the economy in general was improving? Are we that reliant on OCI for national employment numbers to pan out?

In 2009, 6709 of respondents reported finding their job through OCI. It's a huge chunk, and importantly it also comprises most of the desirable (high-paying) private-sector jobs. Why so many big law firms choose to hire 2 years in advance--that's beyond me. It's probably just more bullshit.

The depressing thing you realize after studying the numbers is that there really might not be this huge non-Biglaw legal sector that graduates can rely on. Biglaw has been gobbling everything up the past few decades, pushing other private-sector work to the opposite end of the wage and size scale. There are lots of non-Biglaw jobs, yes, but they are concentrated in the 2-10 attorney size category, which is really low-paying compared to debt. Just more evidence the legal industry has just been catering to greed and screwing over its own people.

Right. The major formal hiring drivers of entry level law students other than biglaw are government and the public interest sector. Neither of these two are going to be hiring more people anytime soon. My friends who wanted to work in the government had an even tougher time than biglaw students because of hiring freezes and the public interest students were having a tough time as well (the largest donors to many public interest orgs are banks and biglaw firms). Even clerkships have been going to more and more people with a few years experience.

The is an "informal" private hiring sector of small firms. But since there is still a backlog of experienced attorneys and a huge glut of law students, these firms can pick up people with a few years of work experience or they can offer people $12/hr law clerk jobs or full-time positions paying $10K/year.

[minnbills]

The depressing thing you realize after studying the numbers is that there really might not be this huge non-Biglaw legal sector that graduates can rely on.

This is what I'm afraid of. This report seems to confirm that overall employment numbers are really driven by biglaw hiring, and they're now exacerbated by a lack of government jobs.

I've gotten the impression that other firms have been hiring though. I had coffee with an attorney just last week who seemed very confident that most law firms were still expanding, whereas the big firms were only starting to recover from over-hiring before the recession.

Really disappointed to see this isn't being borne out in the statistics.

This is a question for Jenesais, but I wonder if there has been a shift in how employers are approaching schools. Is it possible that schools are avoiding TTTs in greater numbers and higher ranked schools are having better outcomes? Or is this bad news just that widespread.

[RedBirds2011]

The depressing thing you realize after studying the numbers is that there really might not be this huge non-Biglaw legal sector that graduates can rely on.

This is what I'm afraid of. This report seems to confirm that overall employment numbers are really driven by biglaw hiring, and they're now exacerbated by a lack of government jobs.

I've gotten the impression that other firms have been hiring though. I had coffee with an attorney just last week who seemed very confident that most law firms were still expanding, whereas the big firms were only starting to recover from over-hiring before the recession.

Really disappointed to see this isn't being borne out in the statistics.

This is a question for Jenesais, but I wonder if there has been a shift in how employers are approaching schools. Is it possible that schools are avoiding TTTs in greater numbers and higher ranked schools are having better outcomes? Or is this bad news just that widespread.

I think small law firms, being the small businesses they are, are the ones hurting the most with the economy. Biglaw can recover better because it has so many more resources and hires frequently. Also, biglaws major clients are giant corporations who have lots of cash right now. Small firms main clients are individuals who are still struggling. I think once the economy truly starts to recover in full gear you will see more small firms opening up in their hiring.

[minnbills]

I think small law firms, being the small businesses they are, are the ones hurting the most with the economy. Biglaw can recover better because it has so many more resources and hires frequently. Also, biglaws major clients are giant corporations who have lots of cash right now. Small firms main clients are individuals who are still struggling. I think once the economy truly starts to recover in full gear you will see more small firms opening up.

Yeah I agree re small firms so I should have further clarified. I'm talking about firms smaller than biglaw firms but not "small law" per se. The attorney, for example, was a partner at a firm with about 30 attorneys. The impression I got was that he seemed to think firms of that nature (still business/labor law) were expanding and hiring.

[jenesaislaw]

I'm actually baffled by this. How could things have gotten worse if the economy in general was improving? Are we that reliant on OCI for national employment numbers to pan out?

The job market in general really hasn't been improving that much. We really havent hit a true recovery in the past 4 years.

There's going to be a story on this in the WSJ on Monday, or at least it will play a part in it.

A few reasons may explain:

a) Conservative hiring to ensure that your firm isn't the next [insert firm that has collapsed].
b) More in-sourcing and out-sourcing.
c) More technology, more efficiency,
d) commoditization of law, e.g. Legal Zoom
e) lots of laid off attorneys taking what would have been entry-level jobs

Really, it comes down to the fact that our profession is undergoing, or has already undergone, a significant structural change. Rather than asking, "why haven't we recovered?" the right question might be, "why is this what recovery looks like?"

[jenesaislaw]

This is a question for Jenesais, but I wonder if there has been a shift in how employers are approaching schools. Is it possible that schools are avoiding TTTs in greater numbers and higher ranked schools are having better outcomes? Or is this bad news just that widespread.

Well, in the spirit of the shortened version of my handle you used, I don't know. I don't think "TTTs" are a homogeneous group. Geography, history, and class strength all play a role in how well a school does, good economy, bad economy, or new economy.

Individual school data coming soon for 2011 on LST. Stay tuned and we can try to draw some comparisons, though it's difficult because the data have been changing over the last few years. We'll definitely do something to help make sense of the changes in the near future, though.