Fordham vs. William and Mary Forum

[Shmoopy]

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[stillwater]

That's not what I meant by being honest. I meant even if you just use LSAT and GPA, go at least one step beyond. Is your GPA from a competitive major and UG (this is not so hard to guess)? Did you take the LSAT multiple times with a lot of work - if you did - are you willing to put in the same amount of work in LS? If the answers are yes - it is definitely more likely that above median LSAT+GPA will put you above median barring unforeseen circumstances.

Just from knowledge, I can tell most people at the top of my class and also at other schools I know were initially admitted to better schools. Just a few exceptions.

Do you think that the models people use to predict the weather are this simple?

I thought weathermen were charlatans who used divining rods and ancient rubrics.

[guano]

That's not what I meant by being honest. I meant even if you just use LSAT and GPA, go at least one step beyond. Is your GPA from a competitive major and UG (this is not so hard to guess)? Did you take the LSAT multiple times with a lot of work - if you did - are you willing to put in the same amount of work in LS? If the answers are yes - it is definitely more likely that above median LSAT+GPA will put you above median barring unforeseen circumstances.

Just from knowledge, I can tell most people at the top of my class and also at other schools I know were initially admitted to better schools. Just a few exceptions.

Do you think that the models people use to predict the weather are this simple?

I thought weathermen were charlatans who used divining rods and ancient rubrics.

how to predict the weather

[ajr]

Who gives a fuck?

ajr

Then fuck you ajr

If you don't give a fuck about predicting the weather...you must have a sad life.

[NycReturn]

.

[Crowing]

Just from knowledge, I can tell most people at the top of my class and also at other schools I know were initially admitted to better schools. Just a few exceptions.

in my old section, there was a person admitted off the waitlist who got an A+ and top 10% overall, while there was another who turned down a much better school and ended up at median.

Think of NFL players. For every Payton Manning there's a Ryan Leaf. For every Tim Couch there's a Tom Brady.

Sure, if you're willing to work your butt off and you were above both medians, there's a good chance that you'll be above median. But there's also a chance you won't be.

This is a great analogy, but flawed logic, as you chose four extraordinary cases (i.e. outliers) in your example. In reality, a first round pick is generally someone with a proven track record (high UGPA), superior athletic ability (high LSAT), or both. While these are not perfect predictors of success in the NFL, it is the best information available when drafting. Based on the limited information at the time, players with a proven track record playing football outside the NFL and/or superior athletic ability are more likely to have success in the NFL than those without. This is why they are generally drafted earlier and given larger contracts. This also applies to prospective law students, where those with high UPGAs and LSAT scores are more likely to succeed in law school than those without.

No one (at least I hope not) is saying that this is guaranteed. However, given that there is a positive correlation between UGPAs and LSAT scores to law school grades, it is not logical to argue that when all else is equal, someone with an above median UPGA and an above median LSAT is not more likely to finish above the median than someone without.

FML I'm gonna be Vernon Gholston

[guano]

Just from knowledge, I can tell most people at the top of my class and also at other schools I know were initially admitted to better schools. Just a few exceptions.

in my old section, there was a person admitted off the waitlist who got an A+ and top 10% overall, while there was another who turned down a much better school and ended up at median.

Think of NFL players. For every Payton Manning there's a Ryan Leaf. For every Tim Couch there's a Tom Brady.

Sure, if you're willing to work your butt off and you were above both medians, there's a good chance that you'll be above median. But there's also a chance you won't be.

This is a great analogy, but flawed logic, as you chose four extraordinary cases (i.e. outliers) in your example. In reality, a first round pick is generally someone with a proven track record (high UGPA), superior athletic ability (high LSAT), or both. While these are not perfect predictors of success in the NFL, it is the best information available when drafting. Based on the limited information at the time, players with a proven track record playing football outside the NFL and/or superior athletic ability are more likely to have success in the NFL than those without. This is why they are generally drafted earlier and given larger contracts. This also applies to prospective law students, where those with high UPGAs and LSAT scores are more likely to succeed in law school than those without.

No one (at least I hope not) is saying that this is guaranteed. However, given that there is a positive correlation between UGPAs and LSAT scores to law school grades, it is not logical to argue that when all else is equal, someone with an above median UPGA and an above median LSAT is not more likely to finish above the median than someone without.

For the most part, you're just reiterating my point. Yeah, someone with above median GPA and LSAT is more likely to end up above median. That doesn't mean any particular individual can predict where they'll end up, and I stick with my earlier statement:

it's not random, but it's not predictable.

[UselessKnowledge]

OP probably doesn't need to worry about grades considering he'll get personality pwned it seems.

what is that even supposed to mean?

Seriously, what is that supposed to mean? This comment annoys the hell out of me. It comes off as immature and ridiculous.

Anyway, to get back to the real point at hand, the question really is: practically, does it make sense to made any plans based on a prediction of how you'll perform relative to your classmates in law school. And the answer is definite and resounding no. I think we can all agree on that. So, OP, don't bother making plans that ASSUME you'll be top 10% (or that you'll land a job as an entertainment lawyer). These are things that are possible for you to attain, and you should absolutely work toward them. Just make sure that you make choices that can allow for a various number of successful outcomes.

[scrappydoo716]

OP probably doesn't need to worry about grades considering he'll get personality pwned it seems.

what is that even supposed to mean?

Seriously, what is that supposed to mean? This comment annoys the hell out of me. It comes off as immature and ridiculous.

Anyway, to get back to the real point at hand, the question really is: practically, does it make sense to made any plans based on a prediction of how you'll perform relative to your classmates in law school. And the answer is definite and resounding no. I think we can all agree on that. So, OP, don't bother making plans that ASSUME you'll be top 10% (or that you'll land a job as an entertainment lawyer). These are things that are possible for you to attain, and you should absolutely work toward them. Just make sure that you make choices that can allow for a various number of successful outcomes.

Thank you for staying level headed and realizing that I am not completely banking on this, but rather setting a goal.

[UselessKnowledge]

OP probably doesn't need to worry about grades considering he'll get personality pwned it seems.

what is that even supposed to mean?

Seriously, what is that supposed to mean? This comment annoys the hell out of me. It comes off as immature and ridiculous.

Anyway, to get back to the real point at hand, the question really is: practically, does it make sense to made any plans based on a prediction of how you'll perform relative to your classmates in law school. And the answer is definite and resounding no. I think we can all agree on that. So, OP, don't bother making plans that ASSUME you'll be top 10% (or that you'll land a job as an entertainment lawyer). These are things that are possible for you to attain, and you should absolutely work toward them. Just make sure that you make choices that can allow for a various number of successful outcomes.

Thank you for staying level headed and realizing that I am not completely banking on this, but rather setting a goal.

No worries. One of the problems with some of the posters on TLS is that they often post information that is correct, but that is not actually responding to the OP. They're so concerned with being right and repeating the same information that they fail to get the point. People can have goals that they don't necessarily expect to happen with any real favorable probability. That doesn't mean they can't shoot for it while making sure they have some more realistic fallback options.

Wish you the best of luck!

[peeonyou]

And say per some chance I do receive those grades (top 15% or so) then is the risk worth it?

If I win the lottery, is buying a ticket worth the risk?

There's an 85% chance that you won't be in the top 15%.

This is not necessarily true and hack tls groupthink. if OP has a record of hitting the top 15% in his hs and undergrad and has an above median LSAT (which it sounds like he does), then he has a much better than 15% shot of hitting this mark.

No.

Pretty much every single person in OP's class will be able to say exactly the same thing. Think about it, dude.

Never dismiss the undergrad slackers who mature later in life. A hustling 30 year old outworks a 22 year old whiz kid 9 times out of 10.

At a tier 4 ill bet even $ on a 4.0 180 hitting top 10. At any tier 1 I'd need odds.

[peeonyou]

Also the football analogy is dumb because the scouts have much better info coming in (college quarterbacking, interviews, all the combine, etc.) Also Tom Brady doesn't disprove anything because he was a backup in college and never played yet 1 top team had the sense to draft him. Here, that would be like Harvard selecting someone with a 2.5 and 150 who finishes valedictorian. OP will only be competing against his round and the difference in medians b/w waitlist and full scholly is just too small.

[LazinessPerSe]

thread title should be renamed. was expecting a knockdown, all-out, 4pg brawl between W&M and Fordham fanboys.

disappoint.

[Davidbentley]

Tom Brady started for two years at Michigan.