Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015) Forum

[iMisto]

Hmm, I guess I should have been specific. I'm wondering whether schools are throwing money around like it's going out of style, for applicants like Bigzuck.

^ I'd imagine they're using them to pay for other candidates' schollies... (I'm hoping to pay for somebody else myself).

[danquayle]

I'm interested to know what the decrease in apps will be this cycle. There were 6% less LSATs administered in June, which is less than the decrease last cycle, but we should expect to see a greater reduction in apps due to the "lag effect" than what was experienced last cycle.

By lag effect, I mean people applying this cycle with LSAT scores from last cycle. For example, I took three LSATS, Dec'11, Feb'12, and June'12. I will be applying this cycle, but 2/3 of my LSATS were taken last cycle. There should be less people like me out there this cycle compared to last cycle since a lot more people took the lsat in the year before the last cycle than this one. But how much impact will this have?

It's going to be hard to predict. Thing is, schools did not expect such drastic declines and therefore many coped with the decline in unsustainable ways (e.g. decrease in class sizes or massive scholly money). Some schools will def. be able to keep that up this cycle, but many also won't.

The main issue is we have to take these schools at their word. The ones that are reporting no drop in median while keeping class size the same seem extremely suspect. What is to prevent them from pulling an Illinois/Villanova?

Reputation. Look what happened to those schools. I HIGHLY doubt any T14 is lying on stats. Obviously gaming the system occurs, but nothing as scandalous as Illinois.

@Kevin, what do you suspect the T14 will do this time? Do you expect them to just decrease class sizes to boost medians thereby making this cycle less juicy?

Has it really hurt Illinois's reputation though? I am most interested to see their medians.

[KevinP]

The main issue is we have to take these schools at their word. The ones that are reporting no drop in median while keeping class size the same seem extremely suspect. What is to prevent them from pulling an Illinois/Villanova?

Basically reputation.

But I expect a lot of the top schools to take part in: http://www.abanow.org/2012/06/aba-and-l ... lass-data/

And it's probably only a matter of time before participation is mandatory.

@Kevin, what do you suspect the T14 will do this time? Do you expect them to just decrease class sizes to boost medians thereby making this cycle less juicy?

Hard to say. I'm a LS dropout and preoccupied with my job, so I'm not as active in the law school world anymore. (Although I may want to go back after I pass patent bar and save enough money to come out debt free, hence my interest in the law school world). There is a great article by LSAC about a previous decline in applicants and the effect it had on law schools.

If you want my pure speculation, the next cycle (assuming apps continue downward) should be even juicer, especially for those with sufficient numbers and and for, albeit to a smaller extent, splitters. I expect class sizes to decrease, but the decrease won't be to increase medians. Rather, it will be to combat decreasing medians, and therefore borderline applicants should be autoadmit with scholly money. And of course this will be school-specific (just look at American not caring about its medians).

[rinkrat19]

FWIW, Northwestern's new dean said in a town hall on Thursday that they relaxed the work experience "requirement" slightly (something like "only" 90% of this year's entering class has WE) to maintain the medians. And we have 4 sections of ~65 each, so I'm pretty sure the class size didn't shrink. But the official numbers haven't been released yet.

[KevinP]

Has it really hurt Illinois's reputation though? I am most interested to see their medians.

Not necessarily representative and doesn't take into account a host of other factors, but LSN paints a pretty grim picture for Illinois. I believe the scandal hurt Illinois's reputation big time.
http://illinois.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats/0910/
http://illinois.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats/1112/

[HarlandBassett]

FWIW, Northwestern's new dean said in a town hall on Thursday that they relaxed the work experience "requirement" slightly (something like "only" 90% of this year's entering class has WE) to maintain the medians. And we have 4 sections of ~65 each, so I'm pretty sure the class size didn't shrink. But the official numbers haven't been released yet.

hasn't it been established that the WE requirement is a farce (e.g. starbucks barista experience is WE)

[iMisto]

If you want my pure speculation, the next cycle (assuming apps continue downward) should be even juicer, especially for those with sufficient numbers and and for, albeit to a smaller extent, splitters. I expect class sizes to decrease, but the decrease won't be to increase medians. Rather, it will be to combat decreasing medians, and therefore borderline applicants should be autoadmit with scholly money. And of course this will be school-specific (just look at American not caring about its medians).

Do you honestly feel this way? Please, don't get my little hopes up for $. lol

My numbers put me right at Cornell's new LSAT median, and slightly above their GPA median. I'm praying to Jebus that I just get IN.

However, if what you say is true, do you think they might give something/anything to combat large schollies from lower ranked schools? Say, to prevent me from going to BU w/ $? Again, I have my doubts about getting anything from them...

[justonemoregame]

I'll offer a pessimistic perspective. I would be surprised if schools within the top 14 are willing to spend a significant amount more than what they have in the past re: scholarships, barring special gifts, like the 25M Cornell recently rec'd. Why would they blow money when they don't have to? Cornell doesn't have to compete with BU, UVA doesn't have to compete with Texas/Vandy. T14s compete with each other, but this has always been the case. The effect of a smaller high-scoring applicant pool will be evenly distributed, and we should expect business as usual: increasing tuition, over-enrollment, and under-performance w/r/t outcome.

I think there are still plenty of students willing to pay sticker in lieu of $$ from T25s, in part because the decision to do this has majority support at TLS, for better or worse. The only way tuition is going down lol or aid is going up is if people just flat out refuse to pay, and I just don't think that's going to happen at the very top.

And as for schools ranked lower, doling out huge sums of cash isn't sustainable. Law Profs don't come on the cheap. Best we can hope for is to keep making it clear that there are a great many circumstances in which attending law school is a profoundly stupid decision. Hopefully the effect, fewer people attending, will continue and shit-house schools like Cooley, Charlotte, Phoenix, et. al. will have to close.

I hope you get some aid Misto - I wish law schools would actually take the initiative and accept at least part of the responsibility for this mess. But to expect that would be pretty naive, imo. I know this rant is tangential to the purposes of the thread. tl;dr: admission slightly easier, fucking forget aid.

[iMisto]

^ Yeah. As I said, I don't expect anything. lol

I'm actually worried that the large gift to Cornell will hurt my chances. They'll be able to spend $$ on better qualified candidates, enabling them to either maintain current medians, or increase them to last year's.

[Tiago Splitter]

we should expect business as usual: increasing tuition, over-enrollment, and under-performance w/r/t outcome.

Class size is starting to come down even in the T-14, and it has come way down at many schools outside the T-14. So we're making progress. Obviously we all hope that trend continues but even if it doesn't the situation is better than it was 2-3 years ago.

I hope you get some aid Misto - I wish law schools would actually take the initiative and accept at least part of the responsibility for this mess. But to expect that would be pretty naive, imo. I know this rant is tangential to the purposes of the thread. tl;dr: admission slightly easier, fucking forget aid.

She said she is at or above both medians. If we are expecting business as usual we should expect her to get a fair amount of money from a place like Cornell. People at or above both medians have been getting hefty scholarships as long as LSN has been around.

[iMisto]

She said she is at or above both medians. If we are expecting business as usual we should expect her to get a fair amount of money from a place like Cornell. People at or above both medians have been getting hefty scholarships as long as LSN has been around.

Truthies????

[Tiago Splitter]

She said she is at or above both medians. If we are expecting business as usual we should expect her to get a fair amount of money from a place like Cornell. People at or above both medians have been getting hefty scholarships as long as LSN has been around.

Truthies????

Was more of a general statement than a Cornell specific one, but many in the 168/3.7-3.8 crowd last year seemed to be able to get 45K. Certainly not life-changing money.

[iMisto]

She said she is at or above both medians. If we are expecting business as usual we should expect her to get a fair amount of money from a place like Cornell. People at or above both medians have been getting hefty scholarships as long as LSN has been around.

Truthies????

Was more of a general statement than a Cornell specific one, but many in the 168/3.7-3.8 crowd last year seemed to be able to get 45K. Certainly not life-changing money.

Guuuurl, my mother raised 3 childrrenz on less than 20K a year. 45K is life-changing.

[2014]

The question is whether Cornell sees 167 as their new median or a one year blip. If the latter, Misto's 167 is not going to impress them a whole lot and while acceptance chances are still really solid, scholarship chances might not be.

I tend to side with justonemoregame re: aid too. The incentive to offer scholarship money is to stay ahead in the stupid USNWR arms race and at some point (this coming year imo) schools are going to go back to their historical levels of scholly spending and take a one point median drop. Even with stupid high scholarship spending this year schools have been lucky to maintain medians so at some point they have to say enough is enough and get people in at sticker feeding the budget.

[Tiago Splitter]

The question is whether Cornell sees 167 as their new median or a one year blip. If the latter, Misto's 167 is not going to impress them a whole lot and while acceptance chances are still really solid, scholarship chances might not be.

I tend to side with justonemoregame re: aid too. The incentive to offer scholarship money is to stay ahead in the stupid USNWR arms race and at some point (this coming year imo) schools are going to go back to their historical levels of scholly spending and take a one point median drop. Even with stupid high scholarship spending this year schools have been lucky to maintain medians so at some point they have to say enough is enough and get people in at sticker feeding the budget.

Cornell knows that applications continue to decline so I doubt they expect to get back to 168 next year. Meanwhile, their median LSAT is already lower than UCLA and Vandy and in line with what Texas and USC posted last year. Schools really do care about the US News rankings, and Cornell doesn't want to completely fuck things up. The last people that any school will stop spending money on are the median protectors.

Also, imisto, 45K won't feel life-changing when you still have to take on 200K in debt to get the degree. You aren't being "given" anything with a scholarship like that; you're just getting robbed a little less.

[iMisto]

The question is whether Cornell sees 167 as their new median or a one year blip. If the latter, Misto's 167 is not going to impress them a whole lot and while acceptance chances are still really solid, scholarship chances might not be.

I tend to side with justonemoregame re: aid too. The incentive to offer scholarship money is to stay ahead in the stupid USNWR arms race and at some point (this coming year imo) schools are going to go back to their historical levels of scholly spending and take a one point median drop. Even with stupid high scholarship spending this year schools have been lucky to maintain medians so at some point they have to say enough is enough and get people in at sticker feeding the budget.

Cornell knows that applications continue to decline so I doubt they expect to get back to 168 next year. Meanwhile, their median LSAT is already lower than UCLA and Vandy and in line with what Texas and USC posted last year. Schools really do care about the US News rankings, and Cornell doesn't want to completely fuck things up. The last people that any school will stop spending money on are the median protectors.

Also, imisto, 45K won't feel life-changing when you still have to take on 200K in debt to get the degree. You aren't being "given" anything with a scholarship like that; you're just getting robbed a little less.

Yeah, I know.

Guess we'll see how my cycle pans out.

[justonemoregame]

Misto: I would be disappointed if I were you and did not get aid from Cornell; you definitelly should. I should clarify - my pessimism is re: the thought that T14 schools are going to increase aid as a reaction to a smaller applicant pool. Of course I have no idea, and I hope I'm wrong.

[Ruxin1]

Misto: I would be disappointed if I were you and did not get aid from Cornell; you definitelly should. I should clarify - my pessimism is re: the thought that T14 schools are going to increase aid as a reaction to a smaller applicant pool. Of course I have no idea, and I hope I'm wrong.

I think lower t14 have much greater incentive to give aid than the top schools with much better employment prospects.

[iMisto]

Misto: I would be disappointed if I were you and did not get aid from Cornell; you definitelly should. I should clarify - my pessimism is re: the thought that T14 schools are going to increase aid as a reaction to a smaller applicant pool. Of course I have no idea, and I hope I'm wrong.

I don't think schools will necessarily increase aid as a reaction to a smaller applicant pool, rather, I think Cornell might hand out more candy (due to its $25mil gift) to 168s this time around in order to get back last year's median (which isn't going to help me).

[sidhesadie]

She said she is at or above both medians. If we are expecting business as usual we should expect her to get a fair amount of money from a place like Cornell. People at or above both medians have been getting hefty scholarships as long as LSN has been around.

Truthies????

Was more of a general statement than a Cornell specific one, but many in the 168/3.7-3.8 crowd last year seemed to be able to get 45K. Certainly not life-changing money.

Last year I was put on Reserve at Cornell (which I didn't get off of) with a 167 and a 3.82, so there might be a large and perhaps inexplicable difference between 167 and 168 for them. Whether that'll change enough for this year, I don't know. (And no, I have no criminal record or anything of the like).

[KevinP]

I'll offer a pessimistic perspective. I would be surprised if schools within the top 14 are willing to spend a significant amount more than what they have in the past re: scholarships, barring special gifts, like the 25M Cornell recently rec'd. Why would they blow money when they don't have to? Cornell doesn't have to compete with BU, UVA doesn't have to compete with Texas/Vandy. T14s compete with each other, but this has always been the case. The effect of a smaller high-scoring applicant pool will be evenly distributed, and we should expect business as usual: increasing tuition, over-enrollment, and under-performance w/r/t outcome.

Let's assume the following:
(1) Using some arbitrary but accurate calculation, schools will spend the equivalent amount of money in 2012 as they did in 2009.
(2) Applicants continue downward and their LSAT score distributions are approximately evenly distributed.
(3) The "value" of an applicant is almost entirely determined by that applicants index (GPA + LSAT Score) and is relative to how many other people have an index score that is equal or greater.
(4) Acceptances and scholarship money is almost entirely based on an applicant's value.
(5) Law schools will only decrease class sizes in a reactive manner. That is, to offset median declines and not to increase them.

Assumption (1) is the assumption in your pessimistic scenario. Assumptions (2), (3), and (4) are entirely reasonable. Assumption (5) is more school dependent, but reasonable at the large majority of law schools.

We can make the following observations:
(a) Combining (2), (3), and (5) yields that the value of an applicant should be greater in 2012 than it is in 2009.
(b) Combining (a) and (4) yields that a given applicant should now have more acceptances and scholarship money, even if (1) is true.

Conclusion (tl;dr): Acceptances and scholarship money that were previously allocated for applicants with much higher numbers should now be allocated for those with lower numbers. It's true that it doesn't solve the underlying structural problems of law schools, but the decline doesn't require that schools increase spending in order for applicants to massively benefit in terms of scholarship money and acceptances.

tl;dr: admission slightly easier, fucking forget aid.

The 175+ applicant group declined by over a 1/3. I think slightly is an understatement. If you have decent numbers, law schools will now be offering you money that was typically offered to higher numbered candidates simply because you've now become the higher numbered candidate.

Do you honestly feel this way? Please, don't get my little hopes up for $. lol

My numbers put me right at Cornell's new LSAT median, and slightly above their GPA median. I'm praying to Jebus that I just get IN.

However, if what you say is true, do you think they might give something/anything to combat large schollies from lower ranked schools? Say, to prevent me from going to BU w/ $? Again, I have my doubts about getting anything from them...

I haven't kept up with the law school world, so I'm purely speculating. I think you should get something if you leverage. Even if Cornell doesn't give you anything to combat large schollies from lower ranked schools, Cornell should give you something simply because your numbers are now way more of a commodity.

[rayiner]

FWIW, Northwestern's new dean said in a town hall on Thursday that they relaxed the work experience "requirement" slightly (something like "only" 90% of this year's entering class has WE) to maintain the medians. And we have 4 sections of ~65 each, so I'm pretty sure the class size didn't shrink. But the official numbers haven't been released yet.

hasn't it been established that the WE requirement is a farce (e.g. starbucks barista experience is WE)

I think being a barista is actually great WE--at a minimum somebody had to interview you and decide to put you in a customer-facing position. That said, while such work experience has always counted, people with such jobs make up a negligible portion of the class. Not because NU necessarily doesn't take such people, but because there aren't very many such people to begin with. Who works as a barista for two years before going to law school? Those people who don't have other job options head to law school immediately.

NU's class is mostly full of "switchers." Lots of engineers, people who dropped out of PhD programs, people who worked at NGO's, some finance types, some consulting types, some sales types.

[HarlandBassett]

was any of the $25M doled out for this cycle that just passed?

Cornell Law School Receives $25 Million Gift
Ithaca, NEW YORK, June 8, 2012

[Ruxin1]

was any of the $25M doled out for this cycle that just passed?

Cornell Law School Receives $25 Million Gift
Ithaca, NEW YORK, June 8, 2012

The press release said it would start to be utilized next cycle...

[HarlandBassett]

FWIW, Northwestern's new dean said in a town hall on Thursday that they relaxed the work experience "requirement" slightly (something like "only" 90% of this year's entering class has WE) to maintain the medians. And we have 4 sections of ~65 each, so I'm pretty sure the class size didn't shrink. But the official numbers haven't been released yet.

hasn't it been established that the WE requirement is a farce (e.g. starbucks barista experience is WE)

I think being a barista is actually great WE--at a minimum somebody had to interview you and decide to put you in a customer-facing position. That said, while such work experience has always counted, people with such jobs make up a negligible portion of the class. Not because NU necessarily doesn't take such people, but because there aren't very many such people to begin with. Who works as a barista for two years before going to law school? Those people who don't have other job options head to law school immediately.

NU's class is mostly full of "switchers." Lots of engineers, people who dropped out of PhD programs, people who worked at NGO's, some finance types, some consulting types, some sales types.

yea, i was being facetious.

also, since Van Zandt left, there was supposedly less emphasis on WE.