ABA actually warns against law school Forum

[bk1]

Obviously it is wise to consider the ROI of law school, but for those starting out this fall, we will finish in 2014. Aside from Baba Vanga, no one knows what the legal market will be like in 3 1/2 years. You can claim that you know, but you don't.

That being said, I consider law school an investment. Investments always come with risks. I also invest in the stock market and in real estate. No one ever guaranteed me any specific return on those investments, so why would I give up on law school because there was no guarantee of a good job upon graduation?

Suck it up, take the risk, and in the end you will be better educated and more qualified than the other person who doesn't have a law degree.

Or you could just do something else and wonder for the rest of your life how things would have been if you had some balls.

If you are paying sticker, and don't go to a school that gives you a good chance to get big law, then it is a terrible investment. You'd be better off bringing 200K and putting it on red.

This.

Not all risks are equally risky. How is that shit not fucking obvious?

[fragged]

If you are paying sticker, and don't go to a school that gives you a good chance to get big law, then it is a terrible investment. You'd be better off bringing 200K and putting it on red.

This.

Not all risks are equally risky. How is that shit not fucking obvious?

Because the amount of return on an investment is not a predetermined value.

Is 100k of debt only worth taking on if you get a job paying $150k? How about $120k? Or 100k? Or 70k?

It's just like any other kind of debt... If you like to buy fast cars and blow your money on $500 massages, you can make $200k per year and you may never pay off your debt. If you are frugal for a few years, you can pay off your debt in 5 years on a $100k salary.

[vanwinkle]

Suck it up, take the risk

This is the worst investment advice ever, for any form of investment.

[bk1]

Because the amount of return on an investment is not a predetermined value.

Is 100k of debt only worth taking on if you get a job paying $150k? How about $120k? Or 100k? Or 70k?

It's just like any other kind of debt... If you like to buy fast cars and blow your money on $500 massages, you can make $200k per year and you may never pay off your debt. If you are frugal for a few years, you can pay off your debt in 5 years on a $100k salary.

Most schools cost well over 100k. I think you're oblivious to the fact that paying off that kind of debt in 5-10 years is going to require either biglaw or an LRAP qualifying job. It's not like there are a bunch of positions that pay 80-120k.

[vanwinkle]

Not all risks are equally risky. How is that shit not fucking obvious?

Because the amount of return on an investment is not a predetermined value.

ROI is not predetermined, but there's more than enough data out there to predict the likelihood of achieving your minimum desired ROI. Just like any other investment, you should be responsible. It's prudent to look at the data and try to estimate how likely you are to end up ahead, and how much you could end up losing, before you invest.

Saying "ROI is not predetermined" and using that as an excuse to invest is a great way to sink your money into a losing venture.

Is 100k of debt only worth taking on if you get a job paying $150k? How about $120k? Or 100k? Or 70k?

It's just like any other kind of debt... If you like to buy fast cars and blow your money on $500 massages, you can make $200k per year and you may never pay off your debt. If you are frugal for a few years, you can pay off your debt in 5 years on a $100k salary.

1) Attending most law schools today at sticker means taking on a lot more than $100K in debt. If you take it as federal loans, that debt is not dischargeable. If you take it as private loans, you will destroy your credit rating and your chances of passing the bar if you avoid repaying.

2) If your attitude is "you can be frugal and pay off your debt on a $100K salary" then you're assuming you can get a stable $100K+ salary with your degree. At many (actually, these days, most) law schools that would be a rather bad assumption to make. Even at the top law schools, that's at best likely or possible, not certain enough to assume. Graduating from the bottom-tier schools it's incredibly unlikely.

[mpj_3050]

Hey Fragged, have you actually sat down and calculated what 100k or more debt payments look like?

[09042014]

If you are paying sticker, and don't go to a school that gives you a good chance to get big law, then it is a terrible investment. You'd be better off bringing 200K and putting it on red.

This.

Not all risks are equally risky. How is that shit not fucking obvious?

Because the amount of return on an investment is not a predetermined value.

Is 100k of debt only worth taking on if you get a job paying $150k? How about $120k? Or 100k? Or 70k?

It's just like any other kind of debt... If you like to buy fast cars and blow your money on $500 massages, you can make $200k per year and you may never pay off your debt. If you are frugal for a few years, you can pay off your debt in 5 years on a $100k salary.

A good rule of thumb is no more debt than money you make in one year. So for a normal shit law job, you shouldn't have more than 50.

It doesn't work as well with jobs 100K or more because you can still live very nicely on 50K a year and use the extra earnings to pay down debt.

Your numbers you picked seem to imply that the worst a law student can do is get a 70K job. Are you kidding? At most schools that's striking it rich.

[D. H2Oman]

It's already pretty clear, but just for anymore lurkers who are still not sure....



DO NOT LISTEN TO FRAGGED. His advice is garbage.

[D. H2Oman]

It's already pretty clear, but just for anymore lurkers who are still not sure....



DO NOT LISTEN TO FRAGGED. His advice is garbage.

and it matters what the market is going to be like in 2012 for people enrolling next year. Not that much time.

[bk1]

It's already pretty clear, but just for anymore lurkers who are still not sure....



DO NOT LISTEN TO FRAGGED. His advice is garbage.

First serious post in months years?

[fragged]

Not all risks are equally risky. How is that shit not fucking obvious?

Because the amount of return on an investment is not a predetermined value.

ROI is not predetermined, but there's more than enough data out there to predict the likelihood of achieving your minimum desired ROI. Just like any other investment, you should be responsible. It's prudent to look at the data and try to estimate how likely you are to end up ahead, and how much you could end up losing, before you invest.

Saying "ROI is not predetermined" and using that as an excuse to invest is a great way to sink your money into a losing venture.

Is 100k of debt only worth taking on if you get a job paying $150k? How about $120k? Or 100k? Or 70k?

It's just like any other kind of debt... If you like to buy fast cars and blow your money on $500 massages, you can make $200k per year and you may never pay off your debt. If you are frugal for a few years, you can pay off your debt in 5 years on a $100k salary.

1) Attending most law schools today at sticker means taking on a lot more than $100K in debt. If you take it as federal loans, that debt is not dischargeable. If you take it as private loans, you will destroy your credit rating and your chances of passing the bar if you avoid repaying.

2) If your attitude is "you can be frugal and pay off your debt on a $100K salary" then you're assuming you can get a stable $100K+ salary with your degree. At many (actually, these days, most) law schools that would be a rather bad assumption to make. Even at the top law schools, that's at best likely or possible, not certain enough to assume. Graduating from the bottom-tier schools it's incredibly unlikely.

Thank you for the informative response, vanwinkle. Truly appreciated.

I wonder if people's attitudes would be different if we were in a booming legal market. But I think the "doom/gloom" attitude is pervasive throughout the professional world. My doctor says he should have gone to law school and my lawyer says he should have gone to med school... When asked why, both of them whine about how you just can't make the kind of money you used to.

[D. H2Oman]

Thank you for the informative response, vanwinkle. Truly appreciated.

I wonder if people's attitudes would be different if we were in a booming legal market. But I think the "doom/gloom" attitude is pervasive throughout the professional world. My doctor says he should have gone to law school and my lawyer says he should have gone to med school... When asked why, both of them whine about how you just can't make the kind of money you used to.

People bitch and moan in every career field in any economy. The bitching gets louder in a bad economy to be sure. Here's the thing though, the legal market is objectively in rough shape, and even relative to other professional fields it's in poor shape. You're outlook of "take the risk, you pussy" is really misguided. You should trust people on here who know.

[bk1]

Thank you for the informative response, vanwinkle. Truly appreciated.

I wonder if people's attitudes would be different if we were in a booming legal market. But I think the "doom/gloom" attitude is pervasive throughout the professional world. My doctor says he should have gone to law school and my lawyer says he should have gone to med school... When asked why, both of them whine about how you just can't make the kind of money you used to.

So the credited response probably is don't go to either.

Everywhere is doom/gloom, but that doesn't mean you should be plonking down 6 figures to take part in the doom/gloom of a different field.

[fragged]

Thank you for the informative response, vanwinkle. Truly appreciated.

I wonder if people's attitudes would be different if we were in a booming legal market. But I think the "doom/gloom" attitude is pervasive throughout the professional world. My doctor says he should have gone to law school and my lawyer says he should have gone to med school... When asked why, both of them whine about how you just can't make the kind of money you used to.

People bitch and moan in every career field in any economy. The bitching gets louder in a bad economy to be sure. Here's the thing though, the legal market is objectively in rough shape, and even relative to other professional fields it's in poor shape. You're outlook of "take the risk, you pussy" is really misguided. You should trust people on here who know.

I understand what you are saying, and I hope everyone can appreciate that for me, taking a risk to attend law school without any guarantee of making a good salary is worth it, considering the alternative. For me, the alternative is staying in a boring career that I have been in for 12 years. So the return on my investment is not just financial - but I have to remember that my situation is not the norm. I guess that's why they call me a nontrad...

[Lwoods]

Thank you for the informative response, vanwinkle. Truly appreciated.

I wonder if people's attitudes would be different if we were in a booming legal market. But I think the "doom/gloom" attitude is pervasive throughout the professional world. My doctor says he should have gone to law school and my lawyer says he should have gone to med school... When asked why, both of them whine about how you just can't make the kind of money you used to.

As a former V50 support staffer, daughter of a county prosecutor, wife of a surgeon and cousin of a radiologist, I can confidently say that most doctors have an incredibly skewed perception of attorney salaries. This is because their view of the legal world is primarily based on the malpractice and personal injury worlds where there are these monster settlements. They also have a pretty skewed perception on what lawyers actually do (I think medical schools must have a class titled "Why lawyers are evil"), but that's a topic for another thread.
In this regard, your doctor is the clueless one.

Primary care physicians are the lowest paid doctors in this country. Their salaries start around $110k/year after residency. The median attorney salary in the US is $70k.

Plus, the vast majority of US educated doctors match into residency following medical school and then get attending jobs after residency/fellowship. There are many many more out of work JDs.

Medical school is no doubt a much bigger investment of time and money than law school, but it is a much safer bet as well.

[09042014]

I understand what you are saying, and I hope everyone can appreciate that for me, taking a risk to attend law school without any guarantee of making a good salary is worth it, considering the alternative. For me, the alternative is staying in a boring career that I have been in for 12 years. So the return on my investment is not just financial - but I have to remember that my situation is not the norm. I guess that's why they call me a nontrad...

200K is a lot to risk on a field you'll probably find just as boring.

[D. H2Oman]

I understand what you are saying, and I hope everyone can appreciate that for me, taking a risk to attend law school without any guarantee of making a good salary is worth it, considering the alternative. For me, the alternative is staying in a boring career that I have been in for 12 years. So the return on my investment is not just financial - but I have to remember that my situation is not the norm. I guess that's why they call me a nontrad...

That's fair, just remember to check attorney career satisfaction surveys at some point. A lot of legal work is tedious as hell.

[fragged]

Thank you for the informative response, vanwinkle. Truly appreciated.

I wonder if people's attitudes would be different if we were in a booming legal market. But I think the "doom/gloom" attitude is pervasive throughout the professional world. My doctor says he should have gone to law school and my lawyer says he should have gone to med school... When asked why, both of them whine about how you just can't make the kind of money you used to.

As a former V50 support staffer, daughter of a county prosecutor, wife of a surgeon and cousin of a radiologist, I can confidently say that most doctors have an incredibly skewed perception of attorney salaries. This is because their view of the legal world is primarily based on the malpractice and personal injury worlds where there are these monster settlements. They also have a pretty skewed perception on what lawyers actually do (I think medical schools must have a class titled "Why lawyers are evil"), but that's a topic for another thread.
In this regard, your doctor is the clueless one.

Primary care physicians are the lowest paid doctors in this country. Their salaries start around $110k/year after residency. The median attorney salary in the US is $70k.

Plus, the vast majority of US educated doctors match into residency following medical school and then get attending jobs after residency/fellowship. There are many many more out of work JDs.

Medical school is no doubt a much bigger investment of time and money than law school, but it is a much safer bet as well.

If only lawyers could write prescriptions - our financial woes would disappear.

[HarlandBassett]

Thank you for the informative response, vanwinkle. Truly appreciated.

I wonder if people's attitudes would be different if we were in a booming legal market. But I think the "doom/gloom" attitude is pervasive throughout the professional world. My doctor says he should have gone to law school and my lawyer says he should have gone to med school... When asked why, both of them whine about how you just can't make the kind of money you used to.

As a former V50 support staffer, daughter of a county prosecutor, wife of a surgeon and cousin of a radiologist, I can confidently say that most doctors have an incredibly skewed perception of attorney salaries. This is because their view of the legal world is primarily based on the malpractice and personal injury worlds where there are these monster settlements. They also have a pretty skewed perception on what lawyers actually do (I think medical schools must have a class titled "Why lawyers are evil"), but that's a topic for another thread.
In this regard, your doctor is the clueless one.

Primary care physicians are the lowest paid doctors in this country. Their salaries start around $110k/year after residency. The median attorney salary in the US is $70k.

Plus, the vast majority of US educated doctors match into residency following medical school and then get attending jobs after residency/fellowship. There are many many more out of work JDs.

Medical school is no doubt a much bigger investment of time and money than law school, but it is a much safer bet as well.

If only lawyers could write prescriptions - our financial woes would disappear.

Have you met my good friend Ryan Kam?

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor ... =127601863

[niederbomb]

Because the amount of return on an investment is not a predetermined value.

Is 100k of debt only worth taking on if you get a job paying $150k? How about $120k? Or 100k? Or 70k?

It's just like any other kind of debt... If you like to buy fast cars and blow your money on $500 massages, you can make $200k per year and you may never pay off your debt. If you are frugal for a few years, you can pay off your debt in 5 years on a $100k salary.

Most schools cost well over 100k. I think you're oblivious to the fact that paying off that kind of debt in 5-10 years is going to require either biglaw or an LRAP qualifying job. It's not like there are a bunch of positions that pay 80-120k.

Why couldn't one pay off $150,000 in loans (at a T14) on $70,000 per year in less than 5 years?

Live in a city where you can ride the subway to work, don't buy a car, shop at Safeway, order suits from Bangkok, don't eat out, don't date (unless you're a girl who can get a guy who pays for everything), get a small studio in the slums, and you could be paying more than half your income towards debt repayment. $40,000 X 5= 200,000. After five years, then you can enjoy life on a much higher salary than you would have gotten had you just gotten a graduate degree in your old little liberal arts subject.

Maybe I just came from an old-fashioned family that taught me about frugal living, unlike those more "cool" typical Americans who think they can't "live" unless they make a more ostentatious display of wealth than their neighbors.

I agree that attending anything lower than a T14 or an unrivaled regional player in the T20, like Texas, is a bad idea, but I disagree that one either has to gun for Big Law or die.

[niederbomb]

Because the amount of return on an investment is not a predetermined value.

Is 100k of debt only worth taking on if you get a job paying $150k? How about $120k? Or 100k? Or 70k?

It's just like any other kind of debt... If you like to buy fast cars and blow your money on $500 massages, you can make $200k per year and you may never pay off your debt. If you are frugal for a few years, you can pay off your debt in 5 years on a $100k salary.

Most schools cost well over 100k. I think you're oblivious to the fact that paying off that kind of debt in 5-10 years is going to require either biglaw or an LRAP qualifying job. It's not like there are a bunch of positions that pay 80-120k.

Why couldn't one pay off $150,000 in loans (at a T14) on $70,000 per year in less than 5 years?

Live in a city where you can ride the subway to work, don't buy a car, shop at Safeway, order suits from Bangkok, don't eat out, don't date (unless you're a girl who can get a guy who pays for everything), get a small studio in the slums, and you could be paying more than half your income towards debt repayment. $40,000 X 5= 200,000.

I agree that attending anything lower than a T14 or an unrivaled regional player in the T20, like Texas, is a bad idea, but I disagree that one either has to gun for Big Law or die.

The problem isn't that it is impossible to pay those loans off at $70K/year; the problem is landing a $70K/year job.

I agree that attending anything lower than a T14 or an unrivaled regional player in the T20, like Texas, is a bad idea, but I disagree that one either has to gun for Big Law or die.

Landing $70K per year from a T14 or T20 is that difficult?

[vanwinkle]

The problem isn't that it is impossible to pay those loans off at $70K/year; the problem is landing a $70K/year job.

This. This is the point. It's not just odds of making a certain amount of money but odds of finding a job requiring the degree at all.

Finding a $70K/yr job is not guaranteed even from T14. Some find work that pays even less, a few don't find any legal work at all. It's a lot more likely from T14 than lower-tier schools, but even then it's nowhere near a sure thing.

[niederbomb]

The problem isn't that it is impossible to pay those loans off at $70K/year; the problem is landing a $70K/year job.

This. This is the point. It's not just odds of making a certain amount of money but odds of finding a job requiring the degree at all.

Finding a $70K/yr job is not guaranteed even from T14. Some find work that pays even less, a few don't find any legal work at all. It's a lot more likely from T14 than lower-tier schools, but even then it's nowhere near a sure thing.

What percentage of T14 graduates get jobs that pay below the $72,000 median salary? And how long do they fall short?

Nothing is ever a sure thing in this economy, especially for a liberal arts graduate. Even going back to school for a hard science degree and graduating with a new B.S. 3 years later would not guarantee a good job or any job at all. What's the alternative?

1) Go to law school
2) Go back to undergrad to study something useful
3) Wait tables
4) Move to Asia to teach English

As for #2, I'm not sure the job market is that great for 28-year-olds with a liberal arts (age 22) + a hard science degree (age 28) and table-waiting experience, either.

[Lwoods]

The problem isn't that it is impossible to pay those loans off at $70K/year; the problem is landing a $70K/year job.

This. This is the point. It's not just odds of making a certain amount of money but odds of finding a job requiring the degree at all.

Finding a $70K/yr job is not guaranteed even from T14. Some find work that pays even less, a few don't find any legal work at all. It's a lot more likely from T14 than lower-tier schools, but even then it's nowhere near a sure thing.

What percentage of T14 graduates get jobs that pay below the $72,000 median salary? And how long do they fall short?

Nothing is ever a sure thing in this economy, especially for a liberal arts graduate. Even going back to school for a hard science degree and graduating with a new B.S. 3 years later would not guarantee a good job or any job at all. What's the alternative?

1) Go to law school
2) Go back to undergrad to study something useful
3) Wait tables
4) Move to Asia to teach English (or study something useful in Asia to get a real job and have everyone look funny at you, the foreigner, with a degree from Beijing University)

...you don't need to get a new degree to switch fields... You can have a history degree and work in business. The problem is too many Gen-Yers expect to be making $70k+ right away in a career. Since working in business (not in finance or accounting, but one of the many other roles involved in running a business) requires working your way up from a $40k position for years before reaching 6-figures, many don't consider it as an option. Instead they think, "hey, I could just go to law school and make $100k right after that".
This is wrong on many levels:
*You probably won't be making $100k+ right out of law school.
*There's a good chance you'll never break $100k (in today's $) in your career.
*It doesn't take into consideration whether or not you'd actually enjoy a career in law.
*It (wrongly) assumes liberal arts majors aren't qualified for, well, anything.

I work for a Fortunate 500 retailer. I work along side business majors, yes, but also liberal arts and fine arts majors. I know English majors who work in PR at major companies and poli sci majors working in corporate events planning. You don't have to go into law if you majored in liberal arts. Don't be so close-minded. If you're smart enough to get into a T14 but hate law, you'll be far better off climbing the corporate ladder.

[niederbomb]

The problem isn't that it is impossible to pay those loans off at $70K/year; the problem is landing a $70K/year job.

This. This is the point. It's not just odds of making a certain amount of money but odds of finding a job requiring the degree at all.

Finding a $70K/yr job is not guaranteed even from T14. Some find work that pays even less, a few don't find any legal work at all. It's a lot more likely from T14 than lower-tier schools, but even then it's nowhere near a sure thing.

What percentage of T14 graduates get jobs that pay below the $72,000 median salary? And how long do they fall short?

Nothing is ever a sure thing in this economy, especially for a liberal arts graduate. Even going back to school for a hard science degree and graduating with a new B.S. 3 years later would not guarantee a good job or any job at all. What's the alternative?

1) Go to law school
2) Go back to undergrad to study something useful
3) Wait tables
4) Move to Asia to teach English (or study something useful in Asia to get a real job and have everyone look funny at you, the foreigner, with a degree from Beijing University)

...you don't need to get a new degree to switch fields... You can have a history degree and work in business. The problem is too many Gen-Yers expect to be making $70k+ right away in a career. Since working in business (not in finance or accounting, but one of the many other roles involved in running a business) requires working your way up from a $40k position for years before reaching 6-figures, many don't consider it as an option. Instead they think, "hey, I could just go to law school and make $100k right after that".
This is wrong on many levels:
*You probably won't be making $100k+ right out of law school.
*There's a good chance you'll never break $100k (in today's $) in your career.
*It doesn't take into consideration whether or not you'd actually enjoy a career in law.
*It (wrongly) assumes liberal arts majors aren't qualified for, well, anything.

I work for a Fortunate 500 retailer. I work along side business majors, yes, but also liberal arts and fine arts majors. I know English majors who work in PR at major companies and poli sci majors working in corporate events planning. You don't have to go into law if you majored in liberal arts. Don't be so close-minded. If you're smart enough to get into a T14 but hate law, you'll be far better off climbing the corporate ladder.

Where did all these people go to school? Where do they live?

I'm from the backwoods and attended a local religious liberal arts university because it gave me a full-ride scholarship. Do you think I could up and move to a big city where I don't know anyone, start making cold calls, and land even a $30,000 per year job? I suppose it's possible. I'm a pretty cute guy, so I might impress the secretaries into at least keeping my resume out of the dust bin and handing it to the right person.

To be honest, I want to go to law school to put the name of a big university on my resume and learn how to network as much as I want to go so I can practice law. I believe that attending certain universities, regardless of subject, carries certain intangible benefits that those who do not have the experience of not having these opportunities cannot appreciate and will probably deny. Having a good GPA and doing decent on the LSAT seems like a pretty straightforward way to get the likes of Duke or the University of Pennsylvania on my resume. In 4 years, I will find out if I am an idiot.