WUSTL w/ Full vs. UTexas w/ $9.5/yr vs. Penn @ Sticker Forum

[dixon02]

First, thank you all for your input!!! This feedback is incredibly helpful. I think it is great that TLS provides these forums...

Having said that, I am sorta surprised by the consensus. Obviously, UT is a great school and I am giving them consideration because of that. However, just running some quick calculations...

Wash U: $35,000 in living expenses + $40,000 Undergrad = $75,000 in debt = roughly $750 monthly payments for 10yr plan

UTexas: $35,000 in living expenses + $40,000 Undergrad + ~$60,000 Law School = $135,000 in debt = roughly $1,350 monthly payments for 10yr plan

Penn: $40,000 in living expenses + $40,000 Undergrad + ~$145,000 Law School = $225,000 in debt = roughly $2,250 monthly payments for 10yr plan

Conservatively estimated starting salaries over 10 years... (obviously not accounting for bonuses/raises/taxes)
Wash U: $125,000 / 12mos = ~$10,500 per month - $750 = $9,250 in monthly dough after loan payments
UTexas: $140,000 /12mos = ~$11,500 per month - $1,350 = $10,150 "
Penn: $155,000 / 12mos = ~$13,000 per month - $2,250 = $10,750 "

Obviously these are only rough estimates... Certainly, some Wash U grads land 160k paying jobs and same for UT... But I think it would be naive to assume that I would be one of them... Plus, I could end up being one of the few Penn grads who want BigLaw and don't get such a job, which would undermine my estimations, as well. Additionally, there are factors that one can't quantify (i.e. career prospects & flexibility beyond 10yrs, location livability, and other intangibles...)

If nothing else, I think this just shows that it isn't as simple as it may seem at first.

And in re: UTexas, it seems plausible that I could graduate with a $120,000 salary and $100,000+ in debt... That scares me the most of all....

Again, I'm not saying that I don't like UT. I think it is a great school... I'm just not convinced that it is as simple of a decision as some make it sound...

Especially to the UT advocates, is there a reason why I should discount the calculations I just mentioned? Other factors that I am not considering?

THANKS!!!!

There are a few problems with this analysis, but there are two major flaws above all others that will significant impact the decision:

1) You forgot about taxes. Your monthly 'dough' will be about half what you calculated.
2) Where are you getting $145k + $40k in debt for Penn from? Unless I'm missing something, you said sticker, correct? CoA at Penn is roughly $70k per year right now. Ignoring any tuition increases, you're talking about $210k in debt, which is $25k more than you projected.

[ACROOS170]

*Note: The estimated living expense figures may seem low but I will have a suga momma to help pay rent and such... => Really lucky to have her. Her support (both emotionally and financially) will make this process much easier...

Also...

Chiwchiwa: Fair enough... My point was just that UT could combine two unwanted factors... a considerable amount of debt + <BigLaw Job... Plus, that doesn't address the fact that, according to my calculations, it seems feasible for a Penn Grad with $225k in debt to have more disposable income than a UT grad with $135k in debt... Again, I'm not saying that UT may not be the best decision... just not as simple as some have suggested...

Dixon02: Tuition at Penn is roughly 48k/yr... I estimated that living expenses would cost me about 40k over 3 years... see note above... And I did say that I was ignoring taxes for these purposes... I'm not a tax expert and don't know how to compare rates between a 120k salary and a 160k salary without doing a significant amount of research... Nevertheless, I will have to pay taxes at either salary... dividing each 'monthly dough' in half still makes me arrive at the same conclusion... that Penn still may be the best decision...

Any thoughts?

[nonprofit-prophet]

Also, I don't think your salary estimate for UT is correct. Salaries in Texas seem to be pretty bimodal. All the big firms and good boutiques pay 160 and a few medium firms pay 145. I don't know how many firms pay 120 to justify the assumption that 120 is likely. You'll likely either get 145-160 or 80

[ACROOS170]

nonprofit-prophet: I feel like you are making my argument for me... According to you, it seems possible that I could take 135K at UT and make 80K per year... I don't see that being very likely at Penn. Any other thoughts?

[IAFG]

I agree that you should pretty easily be able to swing a $160-$145k job from Penn

But it might not be in Texas.

[nonprofit-prophet]

nonprofit-prophet: I feel like you are making my argument for me... According to you, it seems possible that I could take 135K at UT and make 80K per year... I don't see that being very likely at Penn. Any other thoughts?

Just to be clear, I wasn't commenting on the strength or weakness of an argument, but correcting what I saw as a key variable. To answer your question, yes it is possible. It's also possible you end up making 80k a year as a penn grad as well. The question is not one of absolutes, but degrees. Everyone knows that big law goes deeper into Penn's class, but they don't go 100%. So, the real (and only) question is therefore: is a 25 percentage point increase in big law prospects worth paying sticker? That's a personal question only you can answer

[ACROOS170]

IAFG: Point well taken. When I said that I'd like to practice in Texas, a more accurate statement would probably be 'All things being equal, I'd prefer to practice in Texas...' I'd definitely be open to practicing elsewhere if the opportunities weren't in Texas... Sorry, I should have been more clear.

Plus, I figure that Penn provides more flexibility (i.e. academia, non-profit, politics, etc.) after loans are paid off... I'm not committed to the previously mentioned career options but I'm not totally against them either. Having the option would be nice.

nonprofit-prophet: True. It is a matter of degree... Nothing is certain. But if I am playing the odds according to Law School Transparency, it seems like Penn might be the better bet. However, if I am wrong, I could spend the rest of my life with debt that I cannot ever pay back @ Penn... just seems very unlikely.

[nonprofit-prophet]

IAFG: Point well taken. When I said that I'd like to practice in Texas, a more accurate statement would probably be 'All things being equal, I'd prefer to practice in Texas...' I'd definitely be open to practicing elsewhere if the opportunities weren't in Texas... Sorry, I should have been more clear.

Plus, I figure that Penn provides more flexibility (i.e. academia, non-profit, politics, etc.) after loans are paid off... I'm not committed to the previously mentioned career options but I'm not totally against them either. Having the option would be nice.

nonprofit-prophet: True. It is a matter of degree... Nothing is certain. But if I am playing the odds according to Law School Transparency, it seems like Penn might be the better bet. However, if I am wrong, I could spend the rest of my life with debt that I cannot ever pay back @ Penn... just seems very unlikely.

what is your definition of very unlikely? Does anyone know what the job prospects for bottom quarter Penn students are like? I'd wager the jobs are in the 80k range.

[rad lulz]

Even at best case scenario, you come out making 160k, 250k in loans is just insane.

[IAFG]

IAFG: Point well taken. When I said that I'd like to practice in Texas, a more accurate statement would probably be 'All things being equal, I'd prefer to practice in Texas...' I'd definitely be open to practicing elsewhere if the opportunities weren't in Texas... Sorry, I should have been more clear.

I think this is really a game-changing point. If the most important thing is to be in TX, UT makes more sense. If the most important thing is to make as much money as possible after paying back loans, it gets a little fuzzier.

But you seem to be doing a good job taking everything into account. It's going to come down to your gut impulse at the end of the day. I PERSONALLY would rather go to Penn and have a better shot at NY/Philly/etc as "back up" markets if you don't get Texas biglaw... which, frankly, you likely would from Penn, based on how I have seen TX natives do at T14s over the past couple years.

But there are even more unknowns than that: if bonuses in NY rebound, will you wish you were there? Will you resent the UT compressed pay escalation? Would you hate NY?

[ACROOS170]

rad lulz: I agree. At first, I laughed at the idea of taking so much loans and I was leaning to Wash U. After running the numbers that I mentioned previously, it seemed less crazy to take out so much loans for UT or even Penn. Right now, I am leaning Penn because the 10year projections don't seem as bad as I thought they would. Penn may still offer me something... I'm just not holding my breath...

IAFG: I agree. I feel like it is going to come down to impulse (which I don't like). And, like you said, there are too many variables to account for in this decision. When it comes down to it, I want to go to the best school I can that has programs that I am interested in (Wash U, Texas, and Penn all do) without much fear of eating Ramen Noodles everyday for the rest of my life because I cannot pay back the loans. After running the #s, I feel like Penn might be that school.

[chiwachiwa]

Penn is not worth more than double UT, especially if you prefer to work in TX. This is not a difficult choice. It may seem so to you because you are at "ground level," so to speak, but from the disinterested observer's point of view, UT is the right move.

[IAFG]

Penn is not worth more than double UT, especially if you prefer to work in TX. This is not a difficult choice. It may seem so to you because you are at "ground level," so to speak, but from the disinterested observer's point of view, UT is the right move.

I don't know how you can make this blanket statement. Looking at the NLJ250+AIII numbers show that you have a much better margin of error on grades from Penn vs. UT. Combine that with the bimodal nature of lawyer salaries, it makes sense to struggle with this question.

[dixon02]

Penn is not worth more than double UT, especially if you prefer to work in TX. This is not a difficult choice. It may seem so to you because you are at "ground level," so to speak, but from the disinterested observer's point of view, UT is the right move.

I don't know how you can make this blanket statement. Looking at the NLJ250+AIII numbers show that you have a much better margin of error on grades from Penn vs. UT. Combine that with the bimodal nature of lawyer salaries, it makes sense to struggle with this question.

Agreed. I wouldn't argue it's an easy choice either. I think it would be perfectly justifiable to go to Columbia. Personally, given your preferences and the information provided, I would choose UT. I think it's basically a case of the gaps in potential ceiling being much narrower than the gaps in potential floor.

Edit: obviously meant to say Penn, not Columbia.

[ACROOS170]

Penn is not worth more than double UT, especially if you prefer to work in TX. This is not a difficult choice. It may seem so to you because you are at "ground level," so to speak, but from the disinterested observer's point of view, UT is the right move.

chiwachiwa: I agree that Penn probably isn't twice as valuable as Texas. However, I'm starting off with $40k in Undergrad and will have another $35k-$40k for living expenses... So really, it is like comparing UT @ 135K to Penn @ 225K.

Having said that, I am afraid that, because Penn appeals to me more as a school, I might make a stupid/irrational decision. However, I think that it will cost me ~$90k more in debt... (see calculations above). Again, if I project a $15k difference in yearly salary, my disposable income wouldn't be that different for either...

If it seems that I am just trying to justify an otherwise imprudent and irrational decision with fuzzy math, please call me out on it. Like I said, I am afraid that that is exactly what I am doing... But it doesn't seem to be a clear-cut decision to me.

Again, thank you for taking the time to respond... this conversation is helping a lot. At least makes me feel like I wouldn't be the only person struggling with this.

[dixon02]

Penn is not worth more than double UT, especially if you prefer to work in TX. This is not a difficult choice. It may seem so to you because you are at "ground level," so to speak, but from the disinterested observer's point of view, UT is the right move.

chiwachiwa: I agree that Penn probably isn't twice as valuable as Texas. However, I'm starting off with $40k in Undergrad and will have another $35k-$40k for living expenses... So really, it is like comparing UT @ 135K to Penn @ 225K.

Having said that, I am afraid that, because Penn appeals to me more as a school, I might make a stupid/irrational decision. However, I think that it will cost me ~$90k more in debt... (see calculations above). Again, if I project a $15k difference in yearly salary, my disposable income wouldn't be that different for either...

If it seems that I am just trying to justify an otherwise imprudent and irrational decision with fuzzy math, please call me out on it. Like I said, I am afraid that that is exactly what I am doing... But it doesn't seem to be a clear-cut decision to me.

Again, thank you for taking the time to respond... this conversation is helping a lot. At least makes me feel like I wouldn't be the only person struggling with this.

I think it really boils down to your goals. Are you set on working for a firm in Texas? If so, I just don't think Penn gives you a significant advantage to justify all that extra money. I think the advantage, in fact, would be really rather marginal. (In fairness, I'm not looking at employment statistics right now, but you obviously should be).

Now, if working for a firm in Texas is simply an idea more than a destiny, that might change the calculation a bit. Some people enter law school knowing exactly what and where they want to be. Many others come in with some idea but far from dead set. If you are among the latter (which I certainly was) then Penn becomes a more attractive choice. If you at least have ideas of clerking or going East Coast Big Law, then you would obviously be significantly better off going to Penn.

But if you really are set on graduating and practicing in Texas, I just don't think you're going to find many people who are going to tell you that you should take on another ~$100k in debt to go to Penn instead of UT.

[ACROOS170]

Penn is not worth more than double UT, especially if you prefer to work in TX. This is not a difficult choice. It may seem so to you because you are at "ground level," so to speak, but from the disinterested observer's point of view, UT is the right move.

chiwachiwa: I agree that Penn probably isn't twice as valuable as Texas. However, I'm starting off with $40k in Undergrad and will have another $35k-$40k for living expenses... So really, it is like comparing UT @ 135K to Penn @ 225K.

Having said that, I am afraid that, because Penn appeals to me more as a school, I might make a stupid/irrational decision. However, I think that it will cost me ~$90k more in debt... (see calculations above). Again, if I project a $15k difference in yearly salary, my disposable income wouldn't be that different for either...

If it seems that I am just trying to justify an otherwise imprudent and irrational decision with fuzzy math, please call me out on it. Like I said, I am afraid that that is exactly what I am doing... But it doesn't seem to be a clear-cut decision to me.

Again, thank you for taking the time to respond... this conversation is helping a lot. At least makes me feel like I wouldn't be the only person struggling with this.

I think it really boils down to your goals. Are you set on working for a firm in Texas? If so, I just don't think Penn gives you a significant advantage to justify all that extra money. I think the advantage, in fact, would be really rather marginal. (In fairness, I'm not looking at employment statistics right now, but you obviously should be).

Now, if working for a firm in Texas is simply an idea more than a destiny, that might change the calculation a bit. Some people enter law school knowing exactly what and where they want to be. Many others come in with some idea but far from dead set. If you are among the latter (which I certainly was) then Penn becomes a more attractive choice. If you at least have ideas of clerking or going East Coast Big Law, then you would obviously be significantly better off going to Penn.

But if you really are set on graduating and practicing in Texas, I just don't think you're going to find many people who are going to tell you that you should take on another ~$100k in debt to go to Penn instead of UT.

Looking at the employment statistics, it seems that if I graduated in the top third or so at UT, then the benefits of Penn education may be marginal. However, if I graduated in the bottom third at UT, then all hell breaks loose. I don't plan on graduating in the bottom third but I doubt anybody does...

Like I said in response to another poster, Texas is more of a preference than a 'destination.' Location isn't a huge deal to me...

And yes, if an Art. III clerkship became an option, then I would definitely consider it...

[dixon02]

Penn is not worth more than double UT, especially if you prefer to work in TX. This is not a difficult choice. It may seem so to you because you are at "ground level," so to speak, but from the disinterested observer's point of view, UT is the right move.

chiwachiwa: I agree that Penn probably isn't twice as valuable as Texas. However, I'm starting off with $40k in Undergrad and will have another $35k-$40k for living expenses... So really, it is like comparing UT @ 135K to Penn @ 225K.

Having said that, I am afraid that, because Penn appeals to me more as a school, I might make a stupid/irrational decision. However, I think that it will cost me ~$90k more in debt... (see calculations above). Again, if I project a $15k difference in yearly salary, my disposable income wouldn't be that different for either...

If it seems that I am just trying to justify an otherwise imprudent and irrational decision with fuzzy math, please call me out on it. Like I said, I am afraid that that is exactly what I am doing... But it doesn't seem to be a clear-cut decision to me.

Again, thank you for taking the time to respond... this conversation is helping a lot. At least makes me feel like I wouldn't be the only person struggling with this.

I think it really boils down to your goals. Are you set on working for a firm in Texas? If so, I just don't think Penn gives you a significant advantage to justify all that extra money. I think the advantage, in fact, would be really rather marginal. (In fairness, I'm not looking at employment statistics right now, but you obviously should be).

Now, if working for a firm in Texas is simply an idea more than a destiny, that might change the calculation a bit. Some people enter law school knowing exactly what and where they want to be. Many others come in with some idea but far from dead set. If you are among the latter (which I certainly was) then Penn becomes a more attractive choice. If you at least have ideas of clerking or going East Coast Big Law, then you would obviously be significantly better off going to Penn.

But if you really are set on graduating and practicing in Texas, I just don't think you're going to find many people who are going to tell you that you should take on another ~$100k in debt to go to Penn instead of UT.

Looking at the employment statistics, it seems that if I graduated in the top third or so at UT, then the benefits may be marginal. However, if I graduated in the bottom third, then all hell breaks loose for UT. I don't plan on graduating in the bottom third but I doubt anybody does...

ITE, graduating bottom third anywhere outside of the top 3 is scary. Better to do so while owing the government ~$100k less.

[nonprofit-prophet]

Penn is not worth more than double UT, especially if you prefer to work in TX. This is not a difficult choice. It may seem so to you because you are at "ground level," so to speak, but from the disinterested observer's point of view, UT is the right move.

chiwachiwa: I agree that Penn probably isn't twice as valuable as Texas. However, I'm starting off with $40k in Undergrad and will have another $35k-$40k for living expenses... So really, it is like comparing UT @ 135K to Penn @ 225K.

Having said that, I am afraid that, because Penn appeals to me more as a school, I might make a stupid/irrational decision. However, I think that it will cost me ~$90k more in debt... (see calculations above). Again, if I project a $15k difference in yearly salary, my disposable income wouldn't be that different for either...

If it seems that I am just trying to justify an otherwise imprudent and irrational decision with fuzzy math, please call me out on it. Like I said, I am afraid that that is exactly what I am doing... But it doesn't seem to be a clear-cut decision to me.

Again, thank you for taking the time to respond... this conversation is helping a lot. At least makes me feel like I wouldn't be the only person struggling with this.

I think it really boils down to your goals. Are you set on working for a firm in Texas? If so, I just don't think Penn gives you a significant advantage to justify all that extra money. I think the advantage, in fact, would be really rather marginal. (In fairness, I'm not looking at employment statistics right now, but you obviously should be).

Now, if working for a firm in Texas is simply an idea more than a destiny, that might change the calculation a bit. Some people enter law school knowing exactly what and where they want to be. Many others come in with some idea but far from dead set. If you are among the latter (which I certainly was) then Penn becomes a more attractive choice. If you at least have ideas of clerking or going East Coast Big Law, then you would obviously be significantly better off going to Penn.

But if you really are set on graduating and practicing in Texas, I just don't think you're going to find many people who are going to tell you that you should take on another ~$100k in debt to go to Penn instead of UT.

Looking at the employment statistics, it seems that if I graduated in the top third or so at UT, then the benefits may be marginal. However, if I graduated in the bottom third, then all hell breaks loose for UT. I don't plan on graduating in the bottom third but I doubt anybody does...

I think all hell breaks loose at penn as well. Also, I don't have any figures to back this up, but I've heard Texas grads go to more market paying boutiques than most T-14 schools, which could account for some disparity in NLJ 250 numbers (though definitely not all).

[IAFG]

Looking at the employment statistics, it seems that if I graduated in the top third or so at UT, then the benefits may be marginal. However, if I graduated in the bottom third, then all hell breaks loose for UT. I don't plan on graduating in the bottom third but I doubt anybody does...

It's not about where you graduate, it's about where you finish 1L.

I am not being nit-picky for no reason. Over the course of 6 semesters, you can correct, adjust, grind, figure things out. That's substantially harder in only two semesters. Like you say, no one plans to be in the bottom 1/3, but 1/3 of everyone is anyway. It would be a mistake to assume they're there because they didn't understand how important grades are, or because they aren't working hard, or because they don't go in planning to do everything you plan to do right now. There are very few people at top law schools who are just phoning it in.

[IAFG]

ITE, graduating bottom third anywhere outside of the top 3 is scary. Better to do so while owing the government ~$100k less.

ITE, graduating bottom third anywhere is scary. Better to do so from a school that gives you more chances for more jobs in more markets, with a big name that can open more doors.

^^I don't necessarily believe that is always true for everyone, but it definitely does swing both ways.

[ACROOS170]

Dixon02: Maybe I'm looking at this incorrectly, but it doesn't seem that a bottom third finish at Penn is nearly as big of a problem as it is at UT. Here is what I am looking at...

Penn: --LinkRemoved--
UTexas: --LinkRemoved--

Do you get a different impression?

[ACROOS170]

ITE, graduating bottom third anywhere outside of the top 3 is scary. Better to do so while owing the government ~$100k less.

ITE, graduating bottom third anywhere is scary. Better to do so from a school that gives you more chances for more jobs in more markets, with a big name that can open more doors.

^^I don't necessarily believe that is always true for everyone, but it definitely does swing both ways.

I feel like the statistics I posted earlier supports this notion. If anyone has any thoughts about them, I'd be glad to hear them.

[nonprofit-prophet]

Dixon02: Maybe I'm looking at this incorrectly, but it doesn't seem that a bottom third finish at Penn is nearly as big of a problem as it is at UT. Here is what I am looking at...

Penn: --LinkRemoved--
UTexas: --LinkRemoved--

Do you get a different impression?

after taking a quick glance, the salary percentiles tell us that at least 75% of private sector penn grads get market. Who knows what the bottom 25% of private sector penn grads get. But private sector penn grads are only 78% of all penn grads, so really, we only know that 58% of penn grads got 160k. That doesn't tell me that bottom third is safe.

Edit: best thing to do is go to one of the Penn students taking questions threads and ask them how the class is doing, in terms of job prospects.

[Tiago Splitter]

Dixon02: Maybe I'm looking at this incorrectly, but it doesn't seem that a bottom third finish at Penn is nearly as big of a problem as it is at UT. Here is what I am looking at...

Penn: --LinkRemoved--
UTexas: --LinkRemoved--

Do you get a different impression?

To be fair, that data only says that about 2/3rds of the class at Penn got 160K or Art. III clerkships. Doesn't really tell us about the bottom third.

I initially thought UT for sure but the new stuff coming out in this thread has me thinking Penn. The argument for having NYC Biglaw as a fairly safe backup is a strong one.