Top 1-14 US News Predictions Forum

[vanwinkle]

If anyone breaks into the T14, it'll be Georgetown down, Texas up. Discuss.

Agreed.

[Cupidity]

GULC will not move. It has .a HARD LSAT floor of 168

[los blancos]

Sandy10 is Kurama. He criticizes the US News Rankings but focuses entirely on one aspect of them: the lawyer/judge scores.

I've been suspecting this too.

I should pay more attention. I can't be bothered to keep anyone straight until they hit 250 posts.

good call.

verified and banned.

TLS does not tolerate alts.

Holy hell, ravens20 is a damn sniper!

[D. H2Oman]

Holy hell, ravens20 is a damn sniper!

+1 that was a sick call

[los blancos]

If anyone breaks into the T14, it'll be Georgetown down, Texas up. Discuss.

Any reason for why this would be TX and not UCLA?

[PDaddy]

Well, each school in the T18/T20 has been ranked in the top-20 for much, if not most or all, of that history, certainly all of the recent decade. The T14 receives its prestige from this notation. Hence, once we recognize a "T18" or a "T20", that group will gain similar prestige, and the schools deserve it. Their undergraduate programs are prestigious, they are research institutions, and their other graduate and professional programs are also tops in their fields. So this T14 stuff really has to go.

The difference between T14 and T20 is this:

Vault 100 placement (C/O 2007):

14 Georgetown 34.4%
16 Texas 28.7%
8 Boalt 27.7%
15 UCLA 19.9%
27 Illinois 19.1%
17 Vanderbilt 19.0%
17 USC 18.4%
22 Notre Dame 18.3%
32 Fordham 15.3%
18 GWU 12.5%

Two similar schools in nearly the same location, separated by only 4 ranking spots (at the time), but with a huge difference in placement.

Does life imitate art, or is it the reverse? I ask this question because the existence of the "T14" has had an opportunity to impact employment, so that there's really a self-fulfilling prophesy in a way. Most employers deny following the rankings, but they do follow them. When it comes down to two equal candidates from disparately ranked schools, the hiring partners go with familiarity. If one of the candidates happens to be a top-5%er from Seton, and that firm has had success with Seton grads, the Seton grad can beat anyone, including a harvard grad. All the better if the deciding vote is from a partner who is a Seton grad.

Other than that, the rankings still prevail. If the T20 received as many accolades, top firms would recruit deeper into the classes of #15-20, and those stats would change. Perception is reality my friend, and the USNWR rankings have created perceptions that are not based on reality (which is that top-25% students from almost any law school are as good as those from HYS or any other T14 school).

In short, your flaw is that you mistake a "cause" of the employment stats (the existence of the T14 to begin with) for an effect.

[vanwinkle]

Other than that, the rankings still prevail. If the T20 received as many accolades, top firms would recruit deeper into the classes of #15-20, and those stats would change. Perception is reality my friend, and the USNWR rankings have created perceptions that are not based on reality (which is that top-25% students from almost any law school are as good as those from HYS or any other T14 school).

In short, your flaw is that you mistake a "cause" of the employment stats (the existence of the T14 to begin with) for an effect.

I can barely understand what you're trying to say, but it sounds like you're the one confusing cause and effect. The top prestigious law schools have been the top prestigious law schools since well before the USNWR rankings existed. Yale has been ranked #1 since the first rankings. Did USNWR create the top schools, or did the top schools dictate the initial USNWR rankings?

This isn't a real chicken-and-egg problem, since it's obvious which came first, and it wasn't the top law schools. The notation "T14" came into existence because there was a pretty bright line dividing those schools from the schools below. It's not like the USNWR anointed these schools top schools, they were there and they were running strong the whole time.

[PDaddy]

Sure, every school does games the system to some degree, but UVA is like barbie on steroids in terms of playing games - cheap, used, and abused. It's by far the worst in the t-14 for gaming the system and by far the worst in terms of yield protection. Some of its gaming tools can only be used once to game the system though (i.e. the ED option). I just hope the other schools don't start resorting to the same tactics, or else the application process will just be a major shit fest.

I guess you aren't familiar with New York University law school and The University of California Berkeley law schools. Both of these schools have been gaming the rankings--hard--for years. They just use different tactics than UVA. Honestly, if people would just start realizing that the US News rankings were not nearly as exact and correct as people think they are (ie school number 5 is not necessarily in another league from school number 9) then people would realize that gaming the rankings is not something to be concerned about.

Agreed.

[PDaddy]

Other than that, the rankings still prevail. If the T20 received as many accolades, top firms would recruit deeper into the classes of #15-20, and those stats would change. Perception is reality my friend, and the USNWR rankings have created perceptions that are not based on reality (which is that top-25% students from almost any law school are as good as those from HYS or any other T14 school).

In short, your flaw is that you mistake a "cause" of the employment stats (the existence of the T14 to begin with) for an effect.

I can barely understand what you're trying to say, but it sounds like you're the one confusing cause and effect. The top prestigious law schools have been the top prestigious law schools since well before the USNWR rankings existed. Yale has been ranked #1 since the first rankings. Did USNWR create the top schools, or did the top schools dictate the initial USNWR rankings?

This isn't a real chicken-and-egg problem, since it's obvious which came first, and it wasn't the top law schools. The notation "T14" came into existence because there was a pretty bright line dividing those schools from the schools below. It's not like the USNWR anointed these schools top schools, they were there and they were running strong the whole time.

No one argues that these schools weren't among the best. But it's how the best were measured and how elite of a group that really is versus what it should be. That is the problem I have with the rankings. Before the USNWR rankings, did anyone ever give a damn which schools had the highest average LSAT's? NO! USNWR created this, and it hasn't helped anyone. If I didn't know better, i would think any school ranked #51-100 or below was just a POS school.

Remember, the very top schools are exempt from this. HYS, we can generally buy in there respective positions. Its the other schools. The T14 exists because USNWR made it exist, pure and simple. They arbitrarily assigned the metrics, they gave the weights to those metrics, and they ultimately created the T14 based on the system they designed. No matter what, I think we all agree that HYS would have been at or near the top anyways. But what about the rest of the schools? We wouldn't even know what a T14 is if not for their system.

I have it right. USNWR created a system that has ultimately paid dividends for certain schools, and that, in return has perpetuated the status quo, elitism and limited numbers of URM's in the profession. If this were not true, more schools would have cracked the the upper levels of the rankings by now, and there would be more fluctuations within them. Employers have been relying on the rankings, which were designed to keep certain schools at the top and force schools to rely on LSAT scores. And that keeps URM's out of law school and out of the profession by extension.

I am saying that every negative effect you can associate with these rankings occurs by design.

[ravens20]

Holy hell, ravens20 is a damn sniper!

Haha, I actually called him out on the Berkeley Haters thread as well when he only had about 6 posts total. The condescending tone of his posts, his hatred of US News but reliance on one aspect of its rankings for his arguments, and his insistence on criticizing NYU with every post made Kurama all too easy to spot. Poor guy tho, I didn't mean to get him banned (although he asked to be banned in some other thread).

[Kohinoor]

Holy hell, ravens20 is a damn sniper!

Haha, I actually called him out on the Berkeley Haters thread as well when he only had about 6 posts total. The condescending tone of his posts, his hatred of US News but reliance on one aspect of its rankings for his arguments, and his insistence on criticizing NYU with every post made Kurama all too easy to spot. Poor guy tho, I didn't mean to get him banned (although he asked to be banned in some other thread).

You realize, of course, that you're going on the 'TLS racists' list?

[APimpNamedSlickback]

lmao what the hell just happened? kurama why did you make such an impulsive decision in the first place?

[vanwinkle]

Remember, the very top schools are exempt from this. HYS, we can generally buy in there respective positions. Its the other schools. The T14 exists because USNWR made it exist, pure and simple. They arbitrarily assigned the metrics, they gave the weights to those metrics, and they ultimately created the T14 based on the system they designed. No matter what, I think we all agree that HYS would have been at or near the top anyways. But what about the rest of the schools? We wouldn't even know what a T14 is if not for their system.

What other schools would you put in the T14 if not the schools that are there now? What schools got shortchanged by this? For your argument to be correct there must be some school that was greatly disadvantaged by this system.

You have no idea what you're talking about, you're just rambling conspiracy theories.

I have it right.

Wow, at least you're humble about it.

[Esc]

If anyone breaks into the T14, it'll be Georgetown down, Texas up. Discuss.

Any reason for why this would be TX and not UCLA?

TX has better lawyer/judge ratings, generally better clerkship numbers, has been decreasing class size, and median 25/median/75 GPA numbers rose by .11/.09/.05 this year.

[Cupidity]

UM is on a serious downward trend, I think it will either fall into the 10 block, or if the 10 block splits, it will go

NU
Mich
UVA
Duke

[Kronk]

UM is on a serious downward trend, I think it will either fall into the 10 block, or if the 10 block splits, it will go

NU
Mich
UVA
Duke

Not to be a dick, but there is little to no reason for that speculation. Northwestern has by far the lowest peer scores out of all of those schools (by far). In fact, NU has lower peer scores than any of the T14. The only reason it seems to stay there is expenditures--which I'm sure they can't get much higher.

[Helmholtz]

UM is on a serious downward trend, I think it will either fall into the 10 block, or if the 10 block splits, it will go

NU
Mich
UVA
Duke

Yeah, you're right. They were ranked 9th back in 95 and today they're ranked.......uh........9th. Oh, nvm. USNWR's ranking methods have changed through the years, but ever since they've been close to their current methodology, they're pretty consistently in the 7-10 spots. Michigan being on a "serious downward trend" is pure bullshit.

[Veritas]

I think it's funny that people think Vandy/Texas/UCLA might take the 14th spot. If you look at the lawyer/judge and peer assessments there are obvious breaks between the end of the T14 and the next couple of schools.

[Kronk]

UM is on a serious downward trend, I think it will either fall into the 10 block, or if the 10 block splits, it will go

NU
Mich
UVA
Duke

Yeah, you're right. They were ranked 9th back in 95 and today they're ranked.......uh........9th. Oh, nvm. USNWR's ranking methods have changed through the years, but ever since they've been close to their current methodology, they're pretty consistently in the 7-10 spots. Michigan being on a "serious downward trend" is pure bullshit.

+1. UM's dean actually said the same thing at ASW last year (you could watch the video online). Some student asked about the "downward trend" of Michigan and he said that they had been about ninth for the last fifteen years and were still there. Michigan Law also has peer assessment scores on level with NYU and Boalt. Very proud history there (once was ranked third).

[Stringer Bell]

UM is on a serious downward trend, I think it will either fall into the 10 block, or if the 10 block splits, it will go

NU
Mich
UVA
Duke

I'm not sure why NU would jump to the top of that group. Look, I'm not usually one to troll for UVA solely because I will be going there, but you can't ignore the .5 median GPA jump from the last class. If one school breaks out of that l#10 log jam, UVA is much more likely.

[Stringer Bell]

If anyone breaks into the T14, it'll be Georgetown down, Texas up. Discuss.

Any reason for why this would be TX and not UCLA?

They were tied last year and UT had a crazy gpa jump of .9.

[flyingpanda]

I enjoy how riled up people are getting about these hypothetical rankings.

[bees]

UM is on a serious downward trend, I think it will either fall into the 10 block, or if the 10 block splits, it will go

NU
Mich
UVA
Duke

I'm not sure why NU would jump to the top of that group. Look, I'm not usually one to troll for UVA solely because I will be going there, but you can't ignore the .5 median GPA jump from the last class. If one school breaks out of that l#10 log jam, UVA is much more likely.

People on here have been saying .05, is it really .5?

[Stringer Bell]

UM is on a serious downward trend, I think it will either fall into the 10 block, or if the 10 block splits, it will go

NU
Mich
UVA
Duke

I'm not sure why NU would jump to the top of that group. Look, I'm not usually one to troll for UVA solely because I will be going there, but you can't ignore the .5 median GPA jump from the last class. If one school breaks out of that l#10 log jam, UVA is much more likely.

People on here have been saying .05, is it really .5?

I definitely moved it out one decimal place too few. They jumped from 3.8 to 3.85. That's still pretty significant. My post about Texas should have been .09 as opposed to .9 as well.

[prezidentv8]

Duke rules. End of discussion.