How accurate is Law School Numbers?

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iwantwisconsin
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How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby iwantwisconsin » Thu Feb 07, 2008 12:45 pm

Somebody mentioned that people with lower numbers don't have LSN accounts, so law school admission number averages appear much higher than they actually are. Is that true?

Also, I have found our own TLS Stats stats.php more effective and accurate than Law School Numbers since TLS Stats is made up of all real users.

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JazzyJazz
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby JazzyJazz » Thu Feb 07, 2008 12:49 pm

I would argue the following, based entirely on conjecture.

There are essentially two types of applicants right? The ones who obsess (i.e., many of us here) and the ones who take the process in stride. I wouldn't necessarily assume that either group is particularly representative of a specific portion of the GPA/LSAT curve.

Law School Numbers, while providing some insight into the invisible hand of admission, is therefore likely limited in accuracy. This is not to say extrapolation can't be useful. But drawing conclusions from the LSN data is probably a bad idea (or at least a mediocre one).

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iwasgoingtobeasenator
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby iwasgoingtobeasenator » Thu Feb 07, 2008 12:53 pm

Don't worry about law school admission averages when you're looking at LSN, that is fruitless. You should just find several people on the site who have self reported to having your numbers from each year and see how they do at their schools. If you look at like 10-15 people with your stats and they're all getting into roughly the same schools and struggle with similar schools, then you know what to expect.

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escobarsonlam
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby escobarsonlam » Thu Feb 07, 2008 12:54 pm

yeah, i wouldn't avg or pull stats as a whole from lsn. the representation varies so greatly depending on which school you pull up. just use it for your own purposes like looking at people with similiar numbers to see their status. it's no different than TLS really. just people sharing general info but nothing you can stake your life on.

arich24
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby arich24 » Thu Feb 07, 2008 1:07 pm

B/c of this reason, I don't really use LSN for GPA/ LSAT comparisons, but more so for timing. I try to find someone in past cycles who went complete around the same time as me, and look to see when their decision was made in hopes for a little closure on this waiting; however, I'm way later evidently than most...people who applied same time/went compelte at the same time last cycle, found out in Jan. and I haven't heard a peep :(

egrubs
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby egrubs » Thu Feb 07, 2008 1:08 pm

It's decent for noticing some patterns, too: no one getting accepted with an LSAT below ###, or no one being accepted with a GPA below #.##. Sometimes those patterns become very apparent.

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kill the headlights
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby kill the headlights » Thu Feb 07, 2008 2:54 pm

I think it is quite accurate for reflecting what numbers people with scholarships have. Also, it is accurate in pieces, like with individual users, but not accurate as a whole, like the average numbers at the top.

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themillsman22
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby themillsman22 » Thu Feb 07, 2008 5:07 pm

If you look at like 10-15 people with your stats and they're all getting into roughly the same schools and struggle with similar schools, then you know what to expect.


I try to find someone in past cycles who went complete around the same time as me, and look to see when their decision was made in hopes for a little closure on this waiting


Those are probably two of the most common ways to use LSN. It's a great tool and very informative, but certainly not the bible. That said, it's accurate enough that I'd feel comfortable at least making some basic predictions on a case-by-case basis.

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iwasgoingtobeasenator
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby iwasgoingtobeasenator » Thu Feb 07, 2008 5:11 pm

I also use the graphs to get an idea of what their LSAT cutoff is. (Schools say they don't have one, but they fib.) If you look at G-town, you can see the Green dot line going all the way up on 170, and see a solid Red dot line for 166. If you're at 166, this is good to know, it might save you 92 bucks. If you're a nervous 170 then it's also good to know. That's a great feature as well. Look at several years worth of data too, (mostly the most recent cycle completed though obviously)

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themillsman22
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby themillsman22 » Thu Feb 07, 2008 5:16 pm

The Law School Numbers graphs are also great to show to people who don't understand the admissions process. When you show them the graph, I find a lot more people understand your prospects of attending certain school.

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verdandi
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby verdandi » Fri Feb 08, 2008 4:01 pm

Law school numbers stats seem slightly upwardly-skewed to me. Check out these stats:

Michigan's 25-75 percentiles for 2006: 166-170
Michigan's LSN average accepted student numbers: 3.71/171.4, and attending: 3.58/169.4

For the LSAT at least, Law School Numbers stats seem to be slightly higher than the true average. I agree with the above posters: I've found it most helpful as a tool to find similar profiles to my own and see how they're doing.

But for the best accuracy, I have actually enjoyed our own TLS Stats: stats.php

arich24
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby arich24 » Fri Feb 08, 2008 4:39 pm

I'm frustrated at some people on lawschoolnumbgers (LSN), and I want to vent...I don't mean to target anyone! I HATE it when URMs or Internationals (not sure if they get a break when applying) don't check that little "U" box but list their race on their profile...I get it if you don't want to disclose it (don't mention it anywhere)...but if you mention it on your profile, please mark the box. It's heartbreaking to me when I see someone with similar numbers (or slightly lower) without URM status, who have been accepted to one of my #1s, and I go to check out their profile to see the rest of their cycle, and BAM, I find out that they were URM and my hopes are shattered. I'm not hating on URMs, that's not what this is for, but if you list it on your profile, please check the box so that it comes up on a school's main search page. *sigh* Sorry, I'm moody...

Tex_Mex13
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby Tex_Mex13 » Fri Feb 08, 2008 4:52 pm

^

this is equally annoying for URMs who want to see how all the other ones did too

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Drew82abndiv
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby Drew82abndiv » Fri Feb 08, 2008 4:56 pm

HOW ACCURATE IS A METEOROLOGIST WHEN HE PREDICTS THE WEATHER? :twisted:

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Ken
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby Ken » Wed Oct 15, 2008 1:15 am

Law School Numbers is likely less accurate than TLS Stats stats.php. For on Law School Numbers I have heard that there are several made up profiles whereas on TLS Stats almost all of those posting have a large number of posts on the forum and have been TLS members for a long time, so a lower risk of fraud. But overall, using Law School Numbers and TLS Stats will provide good predictive capabilities.

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OperaAttorney
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby OperaAttorney » Wed Oct 15, 2008 1:57 am

arich24 wrote:I'm frustrated at some people on LSN, and I want to vent...I don't mean to target anyone! I HATE it when URMs or Internationals (not sure if they get a break when applying) don't check that little "U" box but list their race on their profile...I get it if you don't want to disclose it (don't mention it anywhere)...but if you mention it on your profile, please mark the box. It's heartbreaking to me when I see someone with similar numbers (or slightly lower) without URM status, who have been accepted to one of my #1s, and I go to check out their profile to see the rest of their cycle, and BAM, I find out that they were URM and my hopes are shattered. I'm not hating on URMs, that's not what this is for, but if you list it on your profile, please check the box so that it comes up on a school's main search page. *sigh* Sorry, I'm moody...

:lol: :lol: :lol:

bakemono
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby bakemono » Sat Jun 20, 2009 11:01 pm

people don't seem to update their status at all. Everything's been pending for the past couple of years. One more thing: does lawschoolnumbers actually give you your index number per school? Do they even know what the index formula is?

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leobowski
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby leobowski » Sun Jun 21, 2009 10:50 pm

bakemono wrote:people don't seem to update their status at all. Everything's been pending for the past couple of years. One more thing: does lawschoolnumbers actually give you your index number per school? Do they even know what the index formula is?


Some schools, although they have a published index, do not rely on any statistical cutoff points.

I would wager that LSN/TLS are not representative of the general applicant pool. People obsessive enough to participate/register on these sites are likely type A personalities that probably have a meticulously polished resume, a professionally-edited PS, intelligent application strategies, etc.

conn09
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby conn09 » Sun Jun 21, 2009 11:25 pm

I'm going to say that its inaccurate for people with lower numbers, and I mean this for everyone, not just the URMs.

If we look at Duke for last year http://duke.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats/0708/ , it appears that no one got in with under a 165.

But if we look at this official LSAC data http://officialguide.lsac.org/SearchRes ... AC5156.pdf over 100 people got in with under a 165. So everything on there should be taken with a grain of salt.

(Duke is 2nd highest rank school with this chart, w/ Yale being the highest)

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lawlover829
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby lawlover829 » Sun Jun 21, 2009 11:28 pm

i AGREE WITH WHAT EVERYONE SAID.

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D. H2Oman
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby D. H2Oman » Sun Jun 21, 2009 11:33 pm

conn09 wrote:I'm going to say that its inaccurate for people with lower numbers, and I mean this for everyone, not just the URMs.

If we look at Duke for last year http://duke.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats/0708/ , it appears that no one got in with under a 165.

But if we look at this official LSAC data http://officialguide.lsac.org/SearchRes ... AC5156.pdf over 100 people got in with under a 165. So everything on there should be taken with a grain of salt.

(Duke is 2nd highest rank school with this chart, w/ Yale being the highest)


Good set of data, but I think you drew the wrong conclusion. I think that data provides a lot of evidence that LSN is actually quite accurate.

According to that data, 100 people were admitted with an LSAT under 165, but this was out of 1550 total admissions.

Thats a 14:1 ratio. 14 admits 165 and up, for every admit under 165.

If you look at the LSN chart, I would say that is exactly what it is showing.

conn09
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby conn09 » Sun Jun 21, 2009 11:36 pm

Dwaterman86 wrote:
conn09 wrote:I'm going to say that its inaccurate for people with lower numbers, and I mean this for everyone, not just the URMs.

If we look at Duke for last year http://duke.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats/0708/ , it appears that no one got in with under a 165.

But if we look at this official LSAC data http://officialguide.lsac.org/SearchRes ... AC5156.pdf over 100 people got in with under a 165. So everything on there should be taken with a grain of salt.

(Duke is 2nd highest rank school with this chart, w/ Yale being the highest)


Good set of data, but I think you drew the wrong conclusion. I think that data provides a lot of evidence that LSN is actually quite accurate.

According to that data, 100 people were admitted with an LSAT under 165, but this was out of 1550 total admissions.

Thats a 14:1 ratio. 14 admits 165 and up, for every admit under 165.

If you look at the LSN chart, I would say that is exactly what it is showing.



Yeah, but the general consensus here and places like that has typically been that you need at least a high 160 to even have any kind of shot to get into a school like that. And that the only people who get into those schools with numbers under are URM.

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D. H2Oman
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby D. H2Oman » Sun Jun 21, 2009 11:38 pm

conn09 wrote:
Dwaterman86 wrote:
conn09 wrote:I'm going to say that its inaccurate for people with lower numbers, and I mean this for everyone, not just the URMs.

If we look at Duke for last year http://duke.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats/0708/ , it appears that no one got in with under a 165.

But if we look at this official LSAC data http://officialguide.lsac.org/SearchRes ... AC5156.pdf over 100 people got in with under a 165. So everything on there should be taken with a grain of salt.

(Duke is 2nd highest rank school with this chart, w/ Yale being the highest)


Good set of data, but I think you drew the wrong conclusion. I think that data provides a lot of evidence that LSN is actually quite accurate.

According to that data, 100 people were admitted with an LSAT under 165, but this was out of 1550 total admissions.

Thats a 14:1 ratio. 14 admits 165 and up, for every admit under 165.

If you look at the LSN chart, I would say that is exactly what it is showing.



Yeah, but the general consensus here and places like that has typically been that you need at least a high 160 to even have any kind of shot to get into a school like that. And that the only people who get into those schools with numbers under are URM.


Yeah so, appears to be true I would say.

conn09
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby conn09 » Sun Jun 21, 2009 11:42 pm

Dwaterman86 wrote:
conn09 wrote:
Dwaterman86 wrote:
conn09 wrote:I'm going to say that its inaccurate for people with lower numbers, and I mean this for everyone, not just the URMs.

If we look at Duke for last year http://duke.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats/0708/ , it appears that no one got in with under a 165.

But if we look at this official LSAC data http://officialguide.lsac.org/SearchRes ... AC5156.pdf over 100 people got in with under a 165. So everything on there should be taken with a grain of salt.

(Duke is 2nd highest rank school with this chart, w/ Yale being the highest)


Good set of data, but I think you drew the wrong conclusion. I think that data provides a lot of evidence that LSN is actually quite accurate.

According to that data, 100 people were admitted with an LSAT under 165, but this was out of 1550 total admissions.

Thats a 14:1 ratio. 14 admits 165 and up, for every admit under 165.

If you look at the LSN chart, I would say that is exactly what it is showing.



Yeah, but the general consensus here and places like that has typically been that you need at least a high 160 to even have any kind of shot to get into a school like that. And that the only people who get into those schools with numbers under are URM.


Yeah so, appears to be true I would say.


So you are aware that the LSN graph has a disproportionate number of people in the 75th percentile, which skew the selectivity of Duke higher than what it actually is?

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D. H2Oman
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby D. H2Oman » Sun Jun 21, 2009 11:48 pm

I don't see that. 5 people under 165 admitted. That means about 70 over 165 should be in, looks like thats what it is.




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