Flipper001 wrote:I know that in my case I've got absolutely zero evidence to make me expect any particular result. I appreciate your positive thinking though lol.
I am sure everyone is taking shots in dark, or trying to make the most out of incomplete information, but I think there are reasonable assumptions to make.
AdComs probably rank the apps by some sort of preference order, and the folks that they have strong feelings about already have decisions (good or bad). Those left over probably fall into 3 categories. 1) a small percent where the preference is contingent on other factors (for example YP folks where NYU may change how they feel about these people based on signalling); 2) a small percent where NYU really likes the app, but the numbers aren't there and they want to wait and see if they can 'fit' the person in (I just assume these folks exist. . . is this actually an archetype); and 3) the big middle of folks that are fine to fill out the class (based on numbers and other factors), but they are not strong enough to have gotten an admit yet.
So with the big group of 'fine' or 'good enough' candidates, they may have partitioned the applicants into equivalence classes (based on numbers?), and there probably isn't a strong preference among those in each equivalence class. So as long as they keep enough of these folks around, there is no incentive to make a decision until the last possible moment (plus they have an additional buffer/safety net with the WL).
Things are going to change pretty quickly in the next 2.5 weeks. People who are in at NYU will take more money at lower ranked schools, other people will choose a peer school that they prefer, and another group may take less money to go to a higher ranked school. I think a lot of the actual decisions will be driven by seat deposits being due, and the actual class that NYU is looking at will start to shake out.
It is true that some people waiting will drop after they deposit at another school, and/or decide to take the bird in the hand/money on the table, but given that the waiting folks are most likely those who are good enough to be at NYU, but basically interchangeable within the group, all that matters to NYU is that a critical mass sticks around to fill out the class. And the benefit to NYU of the extra info after seat deposit dates to help with the decisions probably more then makes up for some number of applicants deciding not to wait.
So in conclusion, those still waiting, especially those who got the email, are probably in it for another 3 weeks or maybe the end of April.
